货币运动与金融危机:马克思的警告

众多学者从不同的角度探讨了金融危机的成因、进程和解决办法. 在马克思货币理论的视角下,金融危机孕育于资本化的货币运动中,是商品经济发展到一定阶段,在信用发达条件下因金融资本家的疯狂投机行为使货币游离于商品之外而产生的一种危机现象. 金融危机的背后是缺乏规制的金融过度创新. 基于这一理解,我们考察当前国际金融危机的原因与本质,并得出若干结论与启示.     

后金融危机时代国际货币秩序变革研究——人民币国际竞争力的提升

此轮金融危机的广泛蔓延使各国经济受到不同程度的负面影响,后危机时代的国际经济秩序面临重大调整的时机,其中货币制度的选择、各国货币实力的此消彼长成为全球新货币经济秩序建立的决定性推动力。本文选取货币竞争的视角,在总结英镑、美元、欧元等国际货币竞争主导因素的基础上,探讨后金融危机时代国际货币经济秩序的变革方向和趋势,最终以人民币国际化为落脚点提出相关建议。     

Dealer behaviour in the Euro money market during times of crisis

This article shows how the recent money market disruptions with elevated counterparty risks and uncertainty about the fundamental value of liquidity influenced the trading behaviour of a key dealer in the Euro money market. The complete trading record in the unsecured segment of the money market for 2007 and 2008 is used to estimate a stylized pricing model, which explicitly accounts for the over-the-counter structure. The empirical results suggest that the market maker learns from order flow, but this information aggregation was increasingly hampered as the crisis unfolded.     

全球金融危机反思与我国金融体制改革深化

肇始于美国次贷危机的本次全球金融危机,在使得主要国家金融体系遭受重创的同时,也揭示出发迭国家金融体制的某些缺陷和未来改革趋向.在反思全球金融危机的成因以及各国采取的应对金融危机措施的基础上,我们认为,我国的金融体制改革应致力于:进一步提高中央银行的独立性:继续推进金融综合化经营制度的实施;不断深化国有化金融机构改革;适应金融全球化要求,加快金融基础建设;加大金融创新力度,提升金融监管水平;继续加快资本市场发展;不断完善公司治理与薪酬激励;进一步优化外汇储备的投资结构.     

美国经济危机原因及其影响的新解释——基于经济长波、货币供给与国际竞争的视角

美国经济危机是其新长波运行到顶后以朱格拉周期形式表现的一次调整,美国经济由此将步入缓慢增长的动荡时期。为满足长波扩张对巨额货币供给的需要,20世纪80年代美国金融体系进行了以金融创新为主要内容的重构,由此支撑了美国经济长达20多年的快速增长,并极大提升了美国的国际地位。但随着长波的演进,不仅内部的扩张动力逐渐衰竭,而且外部的相对竞争力也在快速下降,实体经济对新增货币的吸纳能力减弱,由此金融创新深化所创造的巨大货币供给就只能转向次贷和高杠杆的金融衍生产品。当实体经济与虚拟经济的背离达到一定程度时,经济危机也就不可避免。美国经济危机最终转化为世界经济危机,则是因为各主要国家之间的经济周期出现了高度的同步性,是它们之间相互叠加共振的结果。     

当前世界性金融危机的马克思主义解读及其启示

国内外关于当前世界性金融危机的成因解释大多仅停留在技术和操作层面上,唯有马克思主义金融危机理论才指出了其本质和根源。虽然其也提出了一些化解措施,但由于时代不同,指导价值在现实的操作层面会略显不足。从战略的高度看当前世界性金融危机,首先,要对当前世界性的金融危机有一个准确认知;其次,要推进金融体制在改革中吸取西方资本主义国家在技术和操作层面上失败的教训;最后,要提防被当前金融危机下的意识形态之争所迷惑,坚定不移地走马克思主义中国化的创新之路。     

Financial Crisis,Capital Outflows,and Policy Responses: Examples from East Asia

Financial crises seem to have become the norm rather than the exception since 1992. The author examines the impact of a crisis of confidence and resultant capital outflows from a small and open economy and the possible policy options in response to such outflows, using simple tools and definitions that will be familiar to any money and banking or intermediate macroeconomics student. Examples are drawn from the East Asian crisis of 1997-98 (Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand), although the analysis remains pertinent to emerging economies in general.     

Transmission of the 2007–2008 financial crisis in advanced countries of the European Union

The aim of this paper is to identify the main factors responsible for the 2007–2008 crisis development and transmission across the 10 developed European Union (EU) countries. In order to achieve this objective, trade and financial linkages, crisis contagion from the United States and EU countries and countries' internal and external economic vulnerabilities are examined. The results of logistic regression model covering the period from 2002 to 2012 presented in this paper indicate that the transmission of the crisis occurred through contagion from the United States but also from other EU countries. Additionally, the empirical results confirm that high inflation, a decrease in the exchange rate, and a decrease in the US long-term interest rates increased the probability of the 2007–2008 financial crisis.     

金融风暴中的风险管理与防范

2007年7月以来,美国次贷危机持续笼罩全球金融市场,导致美国房价大跌,资金紧缩,对世界股票市场、期货市场造成极大的冲击.随着金融危机对全球实体经济影响的日益加深,我国银行业也出现投资资产价值下降、零售业务放缓等迹象.因而,我国银行业应针对信贷管理中存在的薄弱环节,采取积极的措施,防范金融风险,保障商业银行健康发展.     

货币、货币化与萧条时期的货币供给——20世纪30年代中国经济走出困局回顾

近代中国货币供应结构的改变(存款比例增大)解决了现金货币供应不足的问题.文章测算了20世纪30年代中国经济的货币化程度,认为它是稳步增长的.在世界经济危机波及中国的情况下,主要依靠中国、交通两银行等核心金融机构力挺工商业的带头示范和同业合作,以及政府对中交两行接管初期的某种督促,保持了货币供给的增加,使中国市场较快走出困境;但政府统制金融的另一面则是扼杀了市场的活力,缺乏制约政府行为的配套改革,因此在取得成果的同时也埋下了非常不利的伏笔.     

The Covered Interest Parity Puzzle and the Evolution of the Japan Premium

A disturbance or breakdown of the first stage of the monetary transmission mechanism tends to be synonymous with high and volatile money market risk premia. Such market indicators include violations of the covered interest parity (CIP). This was not only evident during the financial crisis of 2007–08, but already during the Japanese banking crisis in the late 1990s, when it became referred to as the “Japan Premium.” Despite extraordinary policy measures by central banks in recent years, however, deviations from the CIP indicate continuing or even elevated stress in the international monetary system. This paper examines a string of distinct, but closely interconnected, assumptions and perceptions regarding CIP arbitrage. By doing so, it not only sheds some fresh light on the recent “CIP puzzle” but also on the era of the Japan Premium during the 1990s and its aftermath.     

中国货币供给规模的实证检验——基于改进的第一代货币危机模型分析

我国货币供给、国内信贷与外汇储备增加之间在大多数年份保持一定的均衡关系.但在少数年份,货币供给也出现不足或超额现象.因此,我国在货币投放的时候,需要全面考虑货币供给、国内信贷与外汇储备增加之间的关系,在继续保持货币供给正常增长的同时,改善货币供应结构,提高货币政策的有效性,增加有效货币供给.     

Owner-managers and firm performance during the asian and global financial crises: evidence from Korea

We examine the performance of the Korean owner-managers during the 1997?1998 Asian financial crisis and the 2008?2009 global financial crisis to establish whether they overcome the unexpected exterior shocks better than employed managers. We find that the owner-managers record a significantly greater performance during the crises, and especially during the latter period. Moreover, our results suggest that such a tendency comes from the owner-managers’ superior investment decisions. Our paper thus highlights the role of owner-managers by studying their performance during the Korean economic crisis periods. (JEL G01, G32, G34)     

全球金融危机对台湾决策思维的影响

2008年全球金融海啸使得发达国家面对自上世纪30年代以来最大的衰退,但是发展中国家如金砖四国却依然持续发展。许多经济学家严厉地警告,家计单位及企业的消费支出减少,而对产出的影响更为严重,此举迫使台湾不得不通过扩大消费的方式,来挽回疲弱的经济力。本文针对此次全球金融危机对于台湾当局在因应策略上,关于全球金融体制的崩溃分析、有关当局的处理布局、国际经济组织及先进国家处理经验及建立新的清算机制等因应之道做分析与探讨,提供政策建议,希望封尔後的金融布局有所帮助。     

关于金融危机时期金融自由化的反思

美国金融危机在全世界范围引发了对金融领域发展尤其是20世纪下半叶以来的金融自由化的重新思考。在后危机时期,对金融自由化的反思仍显重要。采用研究金融自由化影响的标准化模型,加入主权债务风险等因素进行修正,进而获得启示,并对我国金融领域发展提出建议。     

Lenders on the storm of wholesale funding shocks: saved by the central bank?

We provide empirical evidence on banks’ responses to shocks in the wholesale funding market, using data of 181 euro area banks over the period from August 2007 to June 2013. Responses to funding liquidity shocks for both banks’ lending volumes and loan rates, to households and corporates, are analysed in a panel VAR framework. We thereby distinguish banks by country, extent of Eurosystem borrowing, bank size and capitalization. The results show that shocks in the securities and interbank markets have significant effects on loan rates and credit supply, particularly of banks in stressed countries of the periphery. The results also suggest that central bank liquidity has mitigated this effect on lending volumes. Lending to nonfinancial corporations is more sensitive to wholesale funding shocks than lending to households. Lending volumes of large banks that are typically more dependent on wholesale funding and banks with large exposure to sovereign bonds show stronger responses to wholesale funding shocks.     

Stalking the Invisible Investor

Neoliberal thought assumes that a free market economy promotes the application of new techniques in the most efficient way. In the financial world it especially implied the introduction of sophisticated techniques of risk management. A more realistic view says without any other control mechanism free markets produce chaos rather than order.

To achieve some justice and prosperity society first needs to establish some order. More prudent behavior of the economic elite, more secure codes of conduct, and a stricter legal framework of rules are necessary conditions for a financial system that fulfils its societal function well. Only then can the world continue working on a steady improvement in terms of justice and prosperity.