Evidence on the effect of ‘Claw-Back’ provisions on IPO share allocation and underpricing in Hong Kong

The article examines share allocation practices of over 300 initial public offerings (IPOs) in Hong Kong during the years immediately following the enacting of a ‘Claw-Back’ provision for IPO share reallocation. The examination of exhaustive micro-level data reveals that small (uninformed, retail) investors earn higher initial returns than large investors. Before the enacting of the ‘Claw-Back’ provision, small investors were unfavourably treated in relation to large investors. The pattern now prevailing in the proportion of shares allocated to small and large investors also differs from that observed previously. When attempting to isolate the determinants of IPO underpricing in Hong Kong, the article also shows that both the ‘informed demand’ hypothesis and the signalling effect of underwriters’ reputation are significant determinants of underpricing. Such result, not visible when pooled OLS regressions are used, becomes apparent through the use of a system of simultaneous equations.     

IPOs’ signalling effects for speculative stock detection: evidence from the Stock Exchange of Thailand

Using a unique data set from the Thai stock market about the so-called, ‘Turnover List (TOL)’ of speculative stocks spanning the period 2004–2012, we investigate and provide new evidence on the relationship between IPOs’ pricing effects and subsequent classification as speculative investments. To be more specific, we examine the signalling effects for the detection of speculative stocks in relation to the degree of their prior IPOs underpricing. We also employ the market-feedback hypothesis to investigate this signalling process. Our results reveal a significant positive relationship between the magnitudes of the IPO underpricing and the probability of an IPO firm being classified officially as speculative on the TOL. Furthermore, we find that a 6-month abnormal return after going public increases the probability of speculative dealing in the IPOs. Next, we consider all listed firms in the Thai stock market and highlight the role of both abnormal return and trading volume in the transmission of probability for appearing on the TOL. In addition, we find that IPOs and non-dividend paying companies further increase the risk of being on the TOL.     

Underpricing of Initial Public Offerings: The Case of Portugal

This paper analyzes the initial public offering (IPO) underpricing phenomenon in Portugal. We show that the ‘hot issue’ market of 1987, coinciding with a speculative bubble in the stock market, is well explained by investor sentiment theories and that the issuing firms seized a ‘window of opportunity’ provided by excessive demand to offer and list their shares. In IPOs prior to the 1987 crash, underpricing is very high while there is a strong reversion to fundamentals in the long run. In the period 1988–2004, we find lower IPO underpricing and overall no evidence of long-run underperformance of IPO firms. Bookbuilding IPOs are more underpriced than other price setting systems IPOs, and firms with seasoned public offerings show abnormal returns in the long run.

IPO underpricing: A social comparison perspective

This paper studies a social comparison perspective on IPO underpricing. The social comparison theory in behavioral psychology suggests that when people do not know how to make a decision or are exposed to new information, they refer to the behavioral norm of the public or the behavior of others to frame their decisions. I argue that when IPO firms and underwriters are uncertain about an IPO firm's intrinsic values, they refer to similar IPO issuing firms in the same industry that went public earlier to determine the IPO offer price. Using a sample of Taiwan IPOs, I find evidence that supports the social comparison explanation of IPO underpricing.     

What causes the IPO underpricing? New evidence from China’s SME market

ABSTRACT

We study 10-year IPO initial returns in China’s small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) board between 2006 and 2016, including 755 IPO samples. At the same time, we test how policy changes of IPO pricing and trading mechanism affect first-day initial returns. Our article adopts the stochastic frontier approach to estimate the fair value of IPOs and decompose the components of deliberate underpricing and mis-valuation factors, then using linear regressions investigate correlation between first-day initial returns and deliberate underpricing or mis-valuation factors. We find it is mis-valuation factors, especially, the irrational behaviour of individual investors that mainly cause the IPO underpricing in China’s SME market rather than deliberate underpricing. Besides, influenced by IPO pricing policies, the characteristic of IPO pricing varies from period to period.     

Price clustering of IPOs in the secondary market

This article studies the integer price clustering of Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) in the secondary market trading during the first 240 trading days after their IPO dates. The results indicate the huge difference between the integer price frequency of IPOs in the primary market and that of matched stocks in the secondary market almost disappears on the first trading day after IPO. The integer price frequency of IPOs is still significantly higher than that of matched stocks during the first 240 trading days. However, after controlling for price level, trading characteristics and IPO price support, the integer price frequency of IPOs conforms to that of matched stocks and that those IPOs with integer offer prices have the same integer price frequency as IPOs without.     

行业收益、国际航运业IPO与船舶融资选择——基于1984～2007年数据分析

在阐述行业收益差异基础上分析影响航运股权融资因素,针对航运企业IPO的不同表现特征选取了1984～2007年间,在主板证券交易所首次发行股票的143家全球航运企业,通过计算超常持有期收益率(BHAR)和累计超常收益率(CAR),分析其短期与长期价格表现。认为航运企业首次公开发行抑价与公司年龄、上市所在交易所的声誉和发行期间市场行情正相关,与承销商声誉负相关;从长期来看,航运企业首次公开发行五个月后表现欠佳。希望通过研究某些体制因素如何影响航运企业IPO抑价,以期对船舶融资选择提供相关建议。     

Priced on the note: the case of Japanese IPOs

ABSTRACT

This article examines the pricing of Japanese IPOs: 54.26% are priced in 1,000 Japanese yen increments (The Japanese yen (JPY) has denominations of banknotes and coins. Banknotes are in 1,000, 2,000, 5,000, and 10,000-yen. Coins are in 1, 5, 10, 50, 100, and 500-yen. One thousand banknotes are similar to US $10 dollars. Coins are considered as changes in Japan.) (note-ending IPOs), an economically large increment on a per-share basis that is equivalent to 10 US dollar increments assuming an exchange rate of 1 US dollar to 100 Japanese yen. The number of note-ending IPOs increases with price levels and pricing uncertainty, supporting the negotiation hypothesis. Note-ending IPOs are associated with higher volatility, higher underwriters’ fees, wider filing price range, smaller deal size, shorter firm age, and lower underwriter reputation. Price clustering contributes to IPO underpricing. The initial returns are 60.44% higher for note-ending relative to coin-ending IPOs. These results shed light on the pricing of Japanese IPOs due to negotiations and on investment opportunities with note-ending IPOs.     

Financial characteristics of Australian initial public offerings from 1994 to 1999

A variety of financial characteristics of Australian initial public offerings (IPOs) for the period 1994–1999 are explored. A number of previous Australian studies have investigated the initial day underpricing and longer term underperformance of IPOs and this study updates those papers. This paper partitions the IPO data into no liability/limited liability; share option/no share option; underwriter option/no underwriter option and dividend reinvestment/no dividend reinvestment characteristics to better understand the types of IPOs that list on the Australian Stock Exchange. The data supports the findings of previous studies in that IPOs are underpriced at the time of listing and underperform the market in the first year following their listing.     

正向反馈申购者、市盈率管制与新股发行定价

传统的新股发行定价偏低观点受到了一些定价偏高实证现象的质疑,且难以解释我国长期实行的发行市盈率管制政策。本文在原有信息不对称理论的基础上,从正向反馈的非理性角度研究发行定价,进而分析市盈率管制政策的作用,并实证检验。研究认为,新股发行市场中存在着大量的正向反馈申购者,他们受近期新股上市表现激发而参与申购,这种噪声需求的存在使得新股即使被高估也仍然能够成功发行。发行人和承销商意识到这种噪声需求的存在,为了使其利润最大化,他们会抬高发行定价,而机构投资者在近期新股上市表现较好的情况下也易于高估新股,因此也能接受较高的询价价格。实证结果验证了正向反馈申购者对发行定价的这一正向影响,并且发现市盈率管制政策能够对此起到一定的抑制作用。     

投资者的异质预期对IPO抑价的影响

针对IPO抑价中的有意抑价和无意抑价问题,运用行为金融理论,在以机构投资者利益最大化推导出机构投资者需求函数的基础上,研究了散户和机构投资者的同质和异质预期对IPO抑价的影响,并进行抑价进行比较分析。研究表明:机构投资者具有有意抑价的激励;当机构投资者与散户对新股价值不存在分歧时,IPO抑价中只有有意抑价,而无无意抑价;当机构投资者与散户对新股价值存在分歧时,分歧越大,IPO抑价越高,而抑价中的有意抑价不变、无意抑价增大。     

中国创业板IPO首日超额收益研究

本文以58家创业板IPO公司为样本,采用类比估价模型来估计新股的内在价值。实证研究结果表明,我国创业板IPO首日超额收益源于二级市场溢价,一级市场抑价不显著;上市首日换手率、上市首日涨跌幅以及市场指数收益率显著影响我国创业板IPO首日超额收益。在此基础上,本文结合海外创业板市场经验以及我国创业板市场表现,给出了相关政策建议,对创业板市场参与者提供了可参考的投资策略。     

What determines the level of IPO gross spreads? Underwriter profits and the cost of going public

This paper addresses three empirical findings of the literature on initial public offerings. (i) Why do investment banks earn positive profits in a competitive market? (ii) Why do banks receive lower gross spreads in venture capitalist (VC) backed than in non-VC backed IPOs? (iii) Why is underpricing more pronounced in VC than in non-VC backed IPOs? While each phenomenon can be explained by itself, there is no explanation yet why all three occur simultaneously. We propose an integrated theoretical framework to address this issue. The IPO procedure is modeled as a two-stage signaling game: In the second stage banks set offer prices given their private information and the level of the spread. Issuing firms anticipate their bank's pricing decision and, in the first stage, set spreads to maximize expected revenue. Investors are aware of this process and subscribe only if their expected profits are non-negative. Firms' equilibrium spreads are large so as to induce banks to set high prices, allowing banks to make profits. Superiorly informed VC backed firms impose smaller spreads but face larger underpricing than non-VC backed firms.     

IPO underpricing and flotation methods in Taiwan – a stochastic frontier approach

Adopting stochastic frontier analysis, this article studies the pricing model and underpricing phenomenon of the initial public offerings (IPOs) in Taiwan and further elucidates the potential impact of offering mechanisms on underpricing. The sampling period is from 1996 to 2003, in which 647 IPOs are selected. Empirical results suggest that issuing firms with greater earning potentials, less risk or less asymmetric information have lower underpricing. Furthermore, the variables included to explain underpricing are mostly significant, especially the proxy variable for flotation method. Observed mean IPO underpricing is 20.59% in the sample period, compared to 17.12% for the subgroup using the auction method. This statistically significant difference implies that the introduction of the auction method can help reduce IPO underpricing.     

Possibility of an Experimental Approach to Investment Studies

Differences between male and female management style, risk aversion, investment strategies, and financial decision making can be found in economic, management, psychology, and social literature. There are no published studies, however, linking gender issues with valuation. In this article, we consider differences in pricing female- versus male-led initial public offerings. Specifically, we find no difference in firm characteristics between a female-led and a male-led IPO, and no difference in underpricing between male-led and female-led IPOs after controlling for firm-specific variables. Our evidence suggests that in a market such as IPOs, where subjects share more similar opportunity sets, wealth, and knowledge, gender bias does not exist.     

Detecting hot and cold cycles using a Markov regime switching model—Evidence from the Chinese A-share IPO market

This paper focuses on detecting hot and cold IPO cycles in the Chinese A-share market using a Markov regime switching model. We introduce a set of observations to measure IPO activities, which include numbers of IPOs issued, levels of underpricing, market conditions and duration time from prospectus and listing, and thus establish a model to estimate these activities' average performance in hot and cold periods respectively. It is found that a hot period is related with an abundant supply of IPOs, high levels of underpricing, positive market conditions and short waiting time to listing after prospectus issue. Further, this paper depicts the turning points of hot and cold periods across the period from 1994 to 2005 for each observation. The cycles detected by the number of IPOs per month are the benchmark and then these cycles' robustness is tested by the other observations.     

IPO重启首日超额收益实证研究

重启之后的中国证券市场,是否能有效地消除各种弊端,抑制首日超额收益过高等异常现象?文章选取我国IPO重启以后发行的新股作为样本,从信息的不对称、承销商的声誉、我国特殊的新股发行制度以及我国投资者的情绪四个角度对我国IPO重启首日超额收益现象进行实证分析,并力图从一级市场发行价格确定和二级市场交易价格形成两个环节来解释我国的IPO首日超额收益,提出一些建设性的参考意见,促进我国的上市公司对IPO进行合理定价,优化资本市场资源的配置。     

Soft Strategic Information and IPO Underpricing

Using content analysis, we measure the impact of soft information, derived from words in initial public offering (IPO) registration documents, on IPO pricing efficiency. First, using 2,298 U.S. IPOs from 1996–2008, we find that an IPO document's strategic tone correlates positively with the stock's first-day return; more frequent usage of positive and/or less frequent usage of negative strategic words leads to more IPO underpricing. Second, we find that an IPO document's strategic tone is negatively correlated with the stock's long-run return. Together, these findings imply that investors initially misprice soft information in registration statements, which mispricing is eventually corrected. Additionally, we create new content-analysis libraries for strategic words and introduce a survey-based library creation method and word-weighting system.