Major League Baseball 2015, What a Difference a Year Makes

An econometric analysis of the 2015 Major League Baseball season is conducted with respect to regular season victories. Results obtained confirm some, but not all, results reported in prior research. The importance of solid team pitching and offense is underscored. Similar to 2014, team defence did not vary sufficiently to play a statistically significant role in team victory differences. Outcomes for total payrolls and salary disparities differ substantially from prior seasons. History may serve as a guide to what occurs on the field, but it does not always replicate the patterns of bygone years. Parameter heterogeneity is substantial and argues against pooling sample data from season to season. From a strict econometric perspective, the results obtained indicate that panel methods should not be utilized to analyse wins data for Major League Baseball. Ultimately, 2015 represents another departure from the standard baseball norm.     

Raising salary or redistributing it: A panel analysis of Major League Baseball

Using data in Major League Baseball (MLB), this article conducts Panel Granger Causality tests for teams' salary structures and corresponding performance. The results show that a reliable way to enhance performance is to compress salaries rather than to enlarge the payroll.     

Competition in shared markets and Major League Baseball broadcast viewership

This work evaluates the cross-quality elasticity of related products in the context of local market Nielsen Local People Meter ratings of Major League Baseball (MLB) regular season broadcasts from 2010 through 2013 from six teams in three shared markets. We employ a fixed effects panel regression with multi-way error clustering, finding that fans exhibit nuanced behaviour related to the absolute quality and relative quality of the two local teams. Our estimates imply quality-related competition for viewership between teams in the face of large disparities in quality. However, when both teams are of high quality, viewership increased beyond what own-team success would predict alone for the competing team. The competitive effects are largely dominated by the spillover effects. These findings point to complementary effects of team success beyond own-team interest, and bring about an important nuance in the literature on market definition, competition and substitution in sport.     

Game over? Assessing the impact of the emergence of a profitable wagering strategy in major league baseball wagering markets

Testing the impact of profitable investment strategies is often hampered by the practical difficulties of determining who knew what, and when. This study examines the impact of the publication of a profitable wagering strategy on the Major League Baseball wagering market. While standard measures of market efficiency characterized the Major League Baseball win–loss moneyline market to be efficient, previous works shows that wagering on underdogs early in the season can generate persistent profits. Though the overall efficiency of the baseball wagering market remained after publication, these profitable opportunities dissipated. Bettor behaviour is found to play varying roles across different wagering strategies; up to half of the drop in returns can be attributed to wagering market participant behaviour.     

Scouts versus Stats: the impact of Moneyball on the Major League Baseball draft

Michael Lewis’ influential book Moneyball (2003) discusses several sources of inefficiency in the Major League Baseball (MLB) labour market; one of these being the failure of baseball scouts to place a draft premium on college players. We test this implication of the Moneyball thesis – the superiority of college players – by measuring the productivity of players who were drafted in the first round of five MLB drafts covering the years 1995–1999. Employing a variety of specifications, we find that the performance of college draft choices is no better than those of high school picks and argue that this is consistent with Hayek's (1944) work on the economics of information and his emphasis on the importance of localized knowledge. Additionally, we utilize data on the first three rounds of the MLB draft from 1965 to 2010 to test whether Lewis’ book had any impact on teams’ draft strategies. We find no significant structural change in the draft following the publication of Moneyball.     

The Reverse Favourite–longshot Bias and Market Efficiency in Major League Baseball: An Update

Racetrack and sports betting markets have been researched extensively with respect to the question of market efficiency. In contrast to the consistently observed favourite–longshot bias found in racetrack betting markets, it has been shown that gamblers in the market for Major League Baseball games reveal the opposite behaviour. This paper updates the previous study with ten years of additional data for the 1990–99 seasons. The strength of the reverse favourite–longshot bias is virtually identical to the original paper. The result suggests that, contrary to most reported inefficiencies in gambling markets, this bias appears to be permanent.     

Productive Efficiency and Salary Distribution: The Case of US Major League Baseball

Recent theoretical research suggests that a firm's salary structure can affect the firm's productivity. We investigate the relationship between payroll inequality and production using US Major League Baseball data. Employing panel data methods, this study finds that salary inequality has a significantly negative effect on team success. A general result is that team success in term of wins does not seem to be correlated with efficiency; specifically, some of the least successful teams are also some of the most efficient. In addition, salary inequality does not appear to be correlated with efficiency. Furthermore, revenues generated by teams are not necessarily correlated with team efficiency.     

The impact of the 1981 and 1994-1995 strikes on Major League Baseball attendance: a time-series analysis

Protracted labour disputes in professional team sports have become increasingly common in the past 30 years. Although each of the four major professional team sports in the USA have experienced episodes of labour strife, Major League Baseball has the longest and most frequent experience with labour-management conflict. Fans and the media claim with each incident permanent harm is done to baseball's standing as the national pastime. The purpose of this paper is to ascertain whether such claims can be supported by the empirical evidence. Utilizing time-series analysis, aggregate attendance at professional baseball games is examined. The evidence presented suggests that although the most protracted periods of labour discord had short-term impacts on attendance, there is no empirical evidence that these exogenous shocks had any long-term effects.     

An empirical analysis of occupational expectations

Empirical research on the subject area of occupational choice has generally focused upon outcomes; that is, in terms of occupational attainment, gender and racial segmentation, and male–female earnings differentials. But individual preferences, in terms of which occupation to pursue, are likely to be of equal importance in considering many of these issues. Therefore, this paper is concerned with an empirical analysis of the occupational expectations of minimum-aged school-leavers. A logit analysis is performed to establish what independent variables are more important in determining which labour queue school-leavers join. This is followed by the implications of the analysis for policy makers and practitioners concerned with the youth labour market. The evidence shows that there are clear differences in the occupational expectations of males and females. For instance, female school-leavers are more likely to seek entry to clerical and other non-manual occupations, such as retailing and catering. Males, on the other hand, have a higher probability of seeking entry to craft occupations like engineering and construction. However, account must also be taken of other personal characteristics when considering occupational choice in this context. Indeed, both human capital and other ‘personality’ variables are shown to have a statistically significant influence upon the occupational expectations of minimumaged school-leavers.     

An empirical analysis of margin debt

Despite the extensive literature on margin requirements and stock market volatility, few articles consider the determinants of margin borrowing. Our trivariate autoregressive model of margin debt, stock returns, and the broker call rate shows that margin debt responds positively to stock returns and negatively to interest rate changes over the period 1951–2001. We also document an asymmetry, with margin debt responding quickly to stock market downturns and more gradually to market upswings.     

Just looking for a good game: competitive balance in the Korean Professional Baseball League

Rottenberg’s uncertainty of outcome hypothesis is about preferences that can vary across fans and sports. We provide the first evidence of the empirical power of the hypothesis in the Korean Professional Baseball League (KPBL). In a panel data set, team-level aggregation over years shows that fans of this league attend in ways consistent with the hypothesis at the level of game uncertainty and consecutive season uncertainty, but only the first is statistically significant. KPBL fans appear to just be looking for a good game. This is consistent with the nearly complete concentration of post-season participation among a very few teams outside of the major population centre in Seoul and a lack of local team identification among KPBL fans. Our work adds to the diversity of league structures in the competitive balance literature since talent levels in KPBL are the result of parent company advertising choices rather than geographic identification. There are research questions and a policy implication.     

中小企业资本结构与经营绩效关系研究——基于中小企业板的实证分析

以中小企业的佼佼者——在深交所中小企业板上市的公司为对象,研究其资本结构的现状,并从各公司2007年财务报告中选取盈利能力、营运能力等五方面共15个指标,采用主成分分析和线性回归,分析资本结构对其经营绩效的影响。经过分析,15个代表经营绩效的财务指标可以通过五个主成分表示,而且这五个主成分表示的经营绩效与代表资本结构的资产负债率和流动资产比率显著正相关,这说明我国中小企业上市公司资本结构与经营绩效的变动呈同向关系。     

On competitive balance in the group stage of the UEFA Champions League*

This article examines competitive balance in the group stage of the UEFA Champions League over the last two decades (1999/2000–2017/2018). Competitive balance is considered both before and after a competition. Have the groups been designed in such a way as to ensure similar levels of competitive balance ex ante? Have the demonstrated strengths (ex post competitive balance) of the different groups been similar over each season? What is the relationship between the competitive balance in the designed groups and that achieved in the same groups after the competition? Are the performance achieved in terms of ex post competitive balance similar to ex ante competitive balance levels? We found that, despite expectations, the groups' ex ante competitive balance was not homogeneous. Although ex ante competitive balance serves as a good predictor, on average, of ex post competitive balance, we observed significant differences at the levels of group and seasons. Therefore, it is possible to improve the design mechanism of the groups that make up the group stage of the champions so that they are composed homogeneously in terms of ex ante competitive balance.     

技术市场对重大科技创新影响的实证分析——技术输出与技术吸纳视角

利用2006-2018年全国省级面板数据,从技术吸纳和技术输出视角研究技术市场对重大科技创新的影响。结果发现,技术输出和技术吸纳对重大科技创新的影响呈现异质状态,即技术输出能够显著促进重大科技创新水平提升,而技术吸纳对重大科技创新的影响不显著。考虑到技术输出与重大科技创新可能存在内生性问题,选取劳动争议处理量作为工具变量进行回归,研究表明该结果具有稳健性。此外,研发人员与经费投入、高等教育水平等因素在促进重大科技创新水平提升过程中具有一定局限性。基于此,提出强化技术市场对重大科技创新影响效应的对策建议。     

An empirical analysis of euro cash payments

If the denominational structure of the euro is used in an optimal way, there should be no preferences for certain coins and notes when making cash payments. In Kippers et al. [2003. An empirical study of cash payments. Statistica Neerlandica 57, 484-508] it is documented that the Dutch public did have certain preferences concerning the Dutch guilder in the sense that a few notes and coins were used less often than they should have been. With the advent of the euro, which changed the denominational structure from 1--5 (guilder) to 1-2-5 (euro), it is of interest to examine whether there are any preferences for euro coins and notes. In this paper we use a unique dataset for the Netherlands to empirically examine if the euro range is used in an optimal way. We find that there are no preferences for certain euro denominations.     

土地流转与现代农业综合配套改革——农产品主体功能区建设的启示简

准确厘清土地流转与现代农业发展的内在机制事关“农村集体土地入市”。基于空间经济模型评价土地流转与农业发展绩效,揭示土地流转在现代农业发展中的作用机理,其土地流转规模对稳态下的农业经济发展速度具有重要影响。现代综合配套改革的主要任务之一就是深化土地管理制度改革,规范推进集体经营性建设用地流转,而任务的实施必然需要农产品主产区补偿机制进一步发展和完善。     

中国制造业竞争力实证分析

一国制造业的竞争力直接表现在制造业的出口竞争力、劳动生产率以及高科技含量三方面,本文分别从这三方面对中国制造业竞争力的演变进行了分析。分析表明,我国制造业的竞争力总体上呈上升态势,但是制造业内部各行业的竞争力存在着两极分化现象。     

就业能力、求职强度与就业绩效关系研究

知识与网络经济改变了传统的雇用方式,就业能力成为员工与企业竞争制胜的重要基础。本文将就业绩效细分为获得绩效与持续绩效,并以283个样本数据为基础,研究了就业能力、求职强度与就业绩效三者间的关系。结果表明:①个体就业能力及求职强度与获得绩效正相关;②个体的就业能力维度中,除了责任感与持续绩效正相关以外,其余能力均与持续绩效负相关;③个体求职强度对就业能力与获得绩效的关系起中介作用。文章还讨论了这一结果对管理实践的意义。