Can microcredit reduce vulnerability to poverty? Evidence from rural Vietnam

Extant literature has extensively explored microcredit's impacts, confirming its essential role in poverty alleviation. However, most studies focus on poverty measures that exclusively emphasize current poverty status without adequately addressing the potential of falling into or remaining in poverty. Furthermore, the role of credit services in helping the poor in rural areas appears to be underexamined in the literature. To address this knowledge gap, this study investigates whether rural microcredit can reduce household vulnerability to poverty. A theoretical framework is developed to capture the mechanism by which microcredit borrowing has a vital role in household businesses and impacts the probability of being poor in the future. The Vietnam Access to Resources Household Survey data set from 2008 to 2016 is used to explore this issue. The findings indicate that rural Vietnam's access to microcredit significantly reduces vulnerability to poverty. Moreover, better-off households are seemingly the most effective at using microcredit, whereas the opposite is found among worse-off households. These results are found to be robust using the propensity score matching method.     

What are the drivers of business demography and employment in the countries of the European Union?

ABSTRACT

The aim of this contribution is to establish a typology of European entrepreneurship countries with respect to variables related to entrepreneurial activity and economic development. Using a combination of multidimensional data analyses allows us to extend the concept of ‘entrepreneurial regimes’ and leads to the distinction of five such entrepreneurial regimes. Moreover, in order to better characterize these classes, a wide set of illustrative variables representative of national economic development, labour market functioning, and formal and informal institutional environments, as well as variables specific to the entrepreneurial population, are considered. Finally, discriminant analyses show that the five explanatory themes considered (Innovation, Employment, Formal Institutions, Entrepreneurship and Governance) differentiate the classes, and significantly explain the diversity of entrepreneurial regimes. These findings have important implications for the implementation of public policy, in order to promote entrepreneurial activity and reduce unemployment.     

The Euro-Mediterranean Partnership and the CommonMediterranean Strategy? European Union Policy from a Discursive Perspective

This article assesses the European Union's Mediterranean policy from a discursive perspective and focuses specifically on the actual, identifiable impact of the Union's security discourse. In doing so it seeks to demonstrate how the Union's Mediterranean security policy has impacted on issues of identity. The implicit reference to sub-regional cooperation in the Union's Common Mediterranean Strategy may be read as a way to facilitate the lack of a clear definition of exactly what type of security or rather insecurity the European Union as a whole is trying to address when dealing with its ‘Mediterranean’.     

Do ethnic networks influence circular migration? Evidence from the UK

This article identifies ethnic network effects among temporary migrants in the UK. Using microdata from Understanding Society and the UK Census, the empirical results show that ethnic networks change the individual probability for circular migration. These effects are strong and significant only for some ethnicities, when controlling for a set of socio-economic characteristics and when adding spatial variability     

Are children an incentive or a disincentive for migration? Evidence from Vietnam

This study analyzes the influence of children on household migration decisions using data on current internal movement in Vietnam a country that has experienced significant rural–urban migration in the recent years. Families with children usually have three migration choices: move together, stay together or send only one parent to work afar. Using an instrumental variable approach, we show that having an additional child reduces the probability of household migration by 0.0115, while it increases the likelihood of fathers’ migration by 0.0121. These effects suggest that households with more children may be less mobile but may have a greater economic need for migration.     

Does European development have Roman roots? Evidence from the German Limes

This paper contributes to the understanding of the long-run consequences of Roman rule on economic development. In ancient times, the area of contemporary Germany was divided into a Roman and a non-Roman part. The study uses this division to test whether the formerly Roman part of Germany are more developed than the non-Roman part. This is done using the Limes Germanicus wall as geographical discontinuity in a regression discontinuity design framework. The results indicate that economic development—as measured by luminosity—is indeed significantly and robustly larger in the formerly Roman part of Germany. The study identifies the persistence of the Roman road network until the present as an important factor causing this developmental advantage of the formerly Roman part of Germany both by fostering city growth and by allowing for a denser road network.     

How to hire helpers? Evidence from a field experiment

How to hire voluntary helpers? We shed new light on this question by reporting a field experiment in which we invited 2859 students to help at the ‘ESA Europe 2012’ conference. Invitation emails varied non-monetary and monetary incentives to convince subjects to offer help. Students could apply to help at the conference and, if so, also specify the working time they wanted to provide. Just asking subjects to volunteer or offering them a certificate turned out to be significantly more motivating than mentioning that the regular conference fee would be waived for helpers. By means of an online-survey experiment, we find that intrinsic motivation to help is likely to have been crowded out by mentioning the waived fee. Increasing monetary incentives by varying hourly wages of 1, 5, and 10 Euros shows positive effects on the number of applications and on the working time offered. However, when comparing these results with treatments without any monetary compensation, the number of applications could not be increased by offering money and may even be reduced.     

Are moving average trading rules profitable? Evidence from the European stock markets

This article examines the profitability of several simple technical trading rules for 16 European stock markets over the 1990 to 2006 period. Our results indicate that increasing moving average rules indeed have predictive power being able to discern recurring price patterns for profitable trading, even after accounting for the effects of data snooping bias. To assess the profitability of different technical trading rules and strategies, we adopt the White's (2000) Reality Check (RC) test that quantifies the data snooping bias and adjusts for its effects. Our empirical results also support the hypothesis that technical trading rules can outperform the buy and hold strategy after accounting for transaction costs.     

Does exchange rate pegging enhance credibility? Evidence from the European Monetary System

The European Monetary System (EMS) has been credited with immediately enhancing the credibility of onetary policy among its member countries. However, there is little empirical evidence to support this view. This study provides evidence from exchange rate data that political actions taken to support the EMS enhanced rate arangement. Further, empirical results were sensitive to the specification of the estimating equations, and varied dramatically if risk premia (discounts) were absent from estimating equations.     

Does offshoring of materials and business services affect employment? Evidence from a small open economy

The fear of massive job losses has prompted a fast-growing literature on offshoring and its impact on employment in advanced economies. This article examines the situation for Belgium. It improves the offshoring intensity measure by computing a volume measure of the share of imported intermediates in output, and it is among the first to address both materials and business services offshoring to high wage and low wage countries. Estimations of static and dynamic industry-level labour demand equations augmented by offshoring intensities do not reveal a significant impact of either materials or business services offshoring on total employment for Belgium between 1995 and 2003. This result holds for both the manufacturing sector and the service sector and it proves robust to splitting the manufacturing sector into high technology and low technology industries.     

With exhaustible resources, can a developing country escape from the poverty trap?

This paper studies the optimal growth of a developing non-renewable natural resource producer. It extracts the resource, and produces a single consumption good with man-made capital. Moreover, it can sell the extracted resource abroad and use the revenues to buy an imported good, perfect substitute of the domestic consumption good. The domestic technology is convex-concave, so that the economy may be locked into a poverty trap. We show that the extent to which the country will escape from the poverty trap depends on the interactions between its technology and its impatience, the characteristics of the resource revenue function, the level of its initial capital stock, and the abundance of the natural resource.     

Price convergence in the European Union – What has changed?

This paper investigates price convergence in European Union countries using disaggregated price level indices in the period 1999–2016. Our results show that prices of both tradable and nontradable goods had a significantly lower dispersion in 2016 than in 1999. The convergence was faster in the case of countries with price level below the average, which can be interpreted as catching-up. However, further analysis shows that most prices converged only up to 2008. While prices of transport equipment continue to converge across the European Union, several durable consumption categories show price divergence after 2008. We attribute this to the drop in international trade of durable products due to increasing inflation and exchange rates volatility following the global financial crisis. From the monetary policy perspective, the existing price-level gaps, shown in our study, may pose a risk of higher inflation, especially in catching-up economies.     

Labour Productivity: A Comparative Analysis of the European Union and United States, 1994–2007

This article confirms that labour productivity in the European economies has continued to slow down in recent years. U.S. productivity growth has been higher than in the EU, but only since 2001. At the same time, both economies have modified previous employment performance: EU employment growth is now higher than in U.S. This article proposes that productivity growth be explained by demand dynamics, and investment in particular, not forgetting the influence of employment, along with other factors such as new technologies.     

What are the drivers of total factor productivity in the European Union?

This paper examines the evolution of total factor productivity (TFP) over time, as well as across countries and sectors, and investigates its determinants. To this end, a panel data set of 17 European Union (EU) countries and 13 sectors over the period 1995–2007 is used as part of a twofold approach. First, we estimate aggregate and sectoral TFP for 17 EU countries by means of the augmented mean group estimator to control for endogeneity, cross-section dependence and heterogeneous production technologies. Second, we investigate the relative importance of the drivers of predicted TFP using a dynamic ordinary least-squares estimator. The results indicate that rationalization, human capital and information and communication technologies are the main drivers of TFP.     

Are economic growth and the variability of the business cycle related? Evidence from five European countries

We use a long series of annual data that span over 100 years to examine the relationship between output growth and its uncertainty in five European countries. Using the GARCH methodology to proxy uncertainty, we obtain two important results. First, more uncertainty about output leads to a higher rate of growth in three of the five countries. Second, output growth reduces its uncertainty in all countries except one. Our results are robust to alternative specifications and provide strong support to the recent emphasis by macroeconomists on the joint examination of economic growth and the variability of the business cycle.     

Does the presence of high-skilled employees increase total and high-skilled employment in the long run? Evidence from Austria

Studies conducted for the US have found a positive effect of human capital endowments on employment growth, with human capital endowments diverging at the same time. In contrast, studies for European countries have found convergence of human capital endowments. This paper tests these relationships for the 99 Austrian districts for the observation period 1971–2011 by estimating how the presence of high-skilled employment affects total, low-skilled and high-skilled employment growth. To this end, OLS, fixed-effects and first-difference regressions are estimated. The results indicate continuous convergence of high-skilled employment which, however, slowed down significantly since the 1990s. In contrast to previous studies, evidence for positive effects of high-skilled on total and low-skilled employment is only weak and varies over time. Furthermore, the results show that total and high-skilled employment in suburban areas grew faster than in other regions, while districts which bordered the Eastern Bloc were disadvantaged. Nevertheless, spatial neighbourhood effects within Austria are only weak.     

Does local social capital deter labour migration? Evidence from rural China

This article empirically investigates the effect of local social capital on job-related migration in rural China. A household’s social ties in the region of origin, which we refer to as local social capital, may deter migration, because local social capital is location specific and an individual cannot benefit from it if s/he migrates. In view of Chinese gift-giving culture, we use household expenses on wedding gifts for family members outside household, relatives and friends as a proxy for local social networks. Based on the data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey, we find that in rural China local social networks have a significantly negative effect on migration. The IV results suggest that a 10% increase in wedding gifts expenses results in roughly a 1.1 percentage points decrease in migration probability.