个人特质对男女创业意向影响的比较研究

本研究探讨了不同性别个体的创业意向受到个体特质因素影响过程中的系统差异。通过对560名个体的大样本施测,我们发现:对于女性个体,成就动机、追求卓越和价值取向对个体创业意向的路径系数达到了显著性水平。自主性和风险承担对个体创业意向的影响系数未达到显著性水平。在男性被试组内,风险承担和价值取向对个体创业意向的路径系数达到了显著性水平。追求卓越、自主性和成就动机对个体创业意向的影响系数未达到显著性水平。     

Planned behaviour of tourism students’ entrepreneurial intentions in China

This research aims to investigate the influence of planned behaviour and personal variables on entrepreneurial intention in order to explain and improve low entrepreneurial intention among tourism students in China. A total of 109 tourism students were surveyed to find the key factors affecting their entrepreneurial intention by factor analysis. The six hypotheses were then tested in a sample of 267 Chinese tourism students. According to structural equation modelling (SEM), it was found that there are statistically significant relationships between personal attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioural control and entrepreneurial intention. Multi-group analysis further showed that there are differences between personal attitude, subjective norm and perceived behavioural control according to different personal variables. The results highlight the importance of taking a subdividing approach when researching the factors that influence entrepreneurial intention. Thus, we believe a number of implications about the most effective role of creating entrepreneurial atmosphere from universities, enhancing tourism students’ self-efficacy, and setting student-centred policies in promoting and developing entrepreneurial intention.     

认知灵活性对再创业意愿的影响：创业韧性、成功预期与社会支持的作用

旺盛的创业激情、强烈的创业意愿与宽松的创业氛围并不意味着创业过程总是一帆风顺,超过90%的新创企业3年之内就面临破产清算,创业失败成为创业过程的必然现象,如何构建失败恢复与应对超越的积极认知机制并让创业者再次创业,成为学界和业界亟待解决的焦点问题。创业失败后东山再起,既需要创业者具有创业韧性,又需要对未来充满希望,这两者均源于创业者认知灵活性,因此创业韧性与成功预期是认知灵活性影响创业者再创业意愿的关键因素。在此基础上,创业者还需要一定的社会支持才能重燃创业激情。整合资源保存理论和资源拼凑理论,基于319份多时点配对数据,考察认知灵活性对创业者再创业意愿的影响机制,并检验社会支持的调节作用。研究发现：①认知灵活性显著正向影响创业者再创业意愿;②创业韧性与成功预期在认知灵活性对创业者再创业意愿的影响中起显著中介作用;③社会支持分别调节认知灵活性对创业韧性、成功预期的直接影响作用;④社会支持调节认知灵活性通过创业韧性与成功预期对创业者再创业意愿的间接影响作用。研究结论有助于创业者以失败为契机,从自身角度总结经验教训,并通过反思、学习及外部社会支持进行二次创业。     

感知创业阻碍对创业行为倾向的影响——创业教育的调节作用

2015年以来，我国创业活跃度整体呈显著下滑趋势，影响国家经济高质量发展。基于SSO框架，构建感知创业阻碍对创业行为倾向的作用机制模型，揭示我国创业活跃度不高的原因，探讨创业教育对该机制的调节作用，从降低感知创业阻碍对创业行为倾向不良影响视角明确创业教育实施效果。采用259份创客问卷调研数据对研究模型进行实证检验，结果发现：在感知创业阻碍的3个维度中，感知失去金融资源对失败恐惧的正向影响最强，感知失去社会支持次之，感知失去市场需求对失败恐惧的正向影响不显著；失败恐惧对个体创业行为倾向具有直接阻碍作用；创业教育明显削弱了感知失去金融资源、感知失去社会支持对失败恐惧的正向影响，并降低了失败恐惧对创业行为倾向的阻碍作用。     

创业环境对大学生创业意愿的影响:兼对GEM模型的再检验

基于国内外创业环境和创业意愿的现有研究,构建了基于GEM模型的中国国情下大学生创业环境模型。利用7个城市高校在校大学生进行问卷调查所得的数据,检验了大学生创业环境模型的合理性以及创业环境对大学生创业意愿的影响。研究结论如下:基于GEM模型的大学生创业环境模型能够比较科学地反映中国国情下大学生的创业环境,改善创业环境有助于增强大学生的创业意愿;9个创业环境要素对大学生创业意愿的影响程度不尽相同,即金融支持、政府政策、教育和培训、研发转移和国内市场开放程度对大学生创业意愿的影响显著,政府项目和文化及社会规范对大学生创业意愿具有一定影响,而商业环境和专业基础设施、有形基础设施的可得性对大学生创业意愿的影响不显著。     

为什么日本是一个“创业真空”国度

日本的创新水平处于全球前列，而日本社会创业的比例却很低，被称为“创业真空”国家。作为创业领域非常重要的概念和变量，一个国家新生创业者比例对于其经济发展至关重要。使用全球创业观察2014年的数据，采用个人层面是否为新生创业者和创业意愿作为主要因变量，分析国家层面的变量对于个人成为新生创业者的影响。结果发现，国家层面单一因素，如文化上的不确定性规避意识，对新生创业者并不产生显著影响，宏观经济的稳定性则会影响个人是否成为新生创业者。在加入年龄这一调节变量后，发现三者之间的交互项显著。这说明日本低创业率不仅仅是单方面因素导致的，而更是宏观经济不稳定性、不确定性规避以及老龄化三者之间共同影响的结果。研究结果对于正确理解日本创业现状以及制定促进创业的相关政策具有重要意义。     

To educate or not to educate: Impact of public policies in developing countries

It is well-known in the empirical literature that present-oriented individuals are less likely to go to college as compared to forward looking individuals. There is compelling evidence of a high percentage of dropouts from high schools in poor countries. The endogenous sorting of homogeneous workers into skilled and unskilled types might be the outcome of exposure to income risk and an individual's aversion to risk. We obtain the critical risk aversion associated with income levels above which no individual chooses education. Broad-based economic policies may have perverse impact on educational attainments of individuals. We argue that such an analysis has been largely neglected in related studies. This outcome may also be undesirable from the perspective of a social planner. To address this, we suggest a sector-specific tax-subsidy scheme as a corrective instrument of public policy.     

创业企业家不确定性容忍度对企业迁徙决策的影响

创业企业迁徙是创业企业成长过程中的重要决策。基于文献研究并结合创业企业家特征,构建创业企业迁徙意愿影响因素模型,重点探讨在不确定性容忍度影响下创业企业迁徙意愿影响因素及其作用机制。研究结果表明,政策环境、生活质量、政府服务质量是影响创业企业迁徙的三大外部因素,创业企业家不确定性容忍度则是重要的内部因素,随着创业企业家不确定性容忍度提高,生活质量对迁徙意愿的影响减弱,而政策环境对迁徙意愿的影响增强,表明当前创业企业孵化与迁徙受政策环境主导。研究结论进一步解释了迁徙情景中创业企业对区域经济环境不敏感以及云集于北上广深等生活成本畸高的城市等现象。     

创业团队风险决策的修正效应与影响因素

创业决策具有高的风险性,如何提高创业团队风险决策的质量是一个值得探讨的问题。提出了创业团队风险决策的修正效应,以此衡量决策的过程质量,通过对46支大学生创业团队的实证研究,探究了群体凝聚力与决策过程中的成员参与度对团队风险决策修正效应的影响作用。结果显示:团队的任务凝聚力对团队决策的修正效应起到了显著的正向影响作用,成员参与度是两者关系的重要调节因素,在高的成员参与度下,任务凝聚力对团队决策的修正效应具有更大的促进作用;而团队的人际凝聚力对团队决策的修正效应没有显著影响作用。在此基础上,对提高创业团队风险决策的质量提出了相应的管理建议。     

DO PSYCHOLOGICAL SHOCKS AFFECT FINANCIAL RISK TAKING BEHAVIOR? A STUDY OF U.S. VETERANS

Traditional economic theories assume that individuals are endowed with certain risk preferences that are unaltered by experiences. However, recent evidence indicates that macroeconomic shocks do have an effect on an individual's willingness to take financial risks. In the context of investment decisions, we examine empirically whether an individual's risk preferences are affected by other types of traumatic life experiences. Using a unique proprietary data set, we investigate whether personal traumatic experiences—such as the combat experiences of veterans—have long‐term effects on financial risk‐taking behavior. We find that having experienced combat decreases the probability of investing in risky assets. Key policy implications are noted. (JEL G11, D14)     

创业政策对大学生创业动力的影响实证研究

我国中央及各地方政府出台了一系列政策以激励大学生创业,但大学毕业生的自主创业比例及成功率均很低.本文从创业政策角度实证探讨了其对大学生创业动力的影响,对完善大学生创业政策具有一定的参考意义.以大学生为研究对象,在564份有效问卷的基础上,通过因子分析提取商务支持、金融支持、创业教育、配套措施、创业文化五个创业政策因子,以及内在、外在创业动力两个创业动力因子.实证结果表明,五个创业政策因子均与大学生内在、外在创业动力有显著正相关性,其中金融支持和配套措施对外在创业动力的影响最为显著,配套措施对内在创业动力的影响最为显著.     

大学生创业意愿影响因素研究——基于社会网络关系视角

大学生创业意愿有多方面影响因素,重点是社会网络因素。家人、学校等社会网络强关系通过影响创业态度和创业自我效能感影响并作用于创业意愿,网络榜样力量也会对创业意愿产生积极影响。家人、学校等外部因素要给与大学生支持、鼓励和经验传授,给予创业实践帮助,大学生自己要注重积累创业资源,提高创业意愿,通过正向的创业态度和创业效能感来影响创业意愿。     

RISK AVERSION AND FIELD OF STUDY CHOICE: THE ROLE OF INDIVIDUAL ABILITY

Does the choice of field of study depend on individual risk aversion? The direction of the relationship between individual risk attitudes and type of university degree chosen is potentially ambiguous. On the one hand, risk averse individuals may prefer degree courses which allow high returns in the labour market; on the other hand, if these degrees expose students to a higher probability of dropping out, those who are more risk averse may be induced to choose less challenging fields. Using data from a sample of students enrolled at a middle‐sized Italian public university in 2009, we find that, controlling for a large number of individual characteristics, more risk averse students are more likely to choose any other field (Humanities, Engineering, and Sciences) rather than Social Sciences. We interpret this result bearing in mind that some of these fields, such as Humanities, involve a reduction in the risk of dropping out, while others (such as Engineering and Sciences) involve a lower risk in the labour market. It also emerges that the effect of risk aversion on degree choice is related to student ability. Risk averse students characterized by high abilities tend to prefer Engineering, while the propensity of risk averse students to enrol in Humanities decreases when ability increases, suggesting that the attention paid to labour market risks and drop‐out risk varies according to student skills.     

Real estate and relative risk aversion with generalized recursive preferences

This paper investigates how real estate wealth affects the household’s attitude toward risk, and derives the closed-form expressions for risk aversion with generalized recursive preferences. We find three channels through which real estate wealth affects risk aversion, and these channels are absent in the traditional measure of relative risk aversion as in Arrow (1965) and Pratt (1964). First, illiquidity and fluctuations in real estate value increase consumption risk, thereby increasing risk aversion. Second, real estate as an asset provides a cushion for absorbing negative shocks to households, reducing risk aversion. Third, an increase in real estate prices lowers the profit of the firm that uses real estate as a factor of production, induces a decline in the real wage, and causes a rise in consumption risk. This channel increases risk aversion. We study how these channels as a whole determine relative risk aversion using a basic real business cycle model with generalized recursive preferences and compare the results with the case of expected utility preferences. Finally, we explore the implications of the firm’s and the household’s real estate holdings and illiquidity of real estate on the risk premiums for equity and real estate.     

Past Experiences,Personality Traits,and Risk Aversion: Evidence from Individual Risk Attitudes during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Individuals’ risk attitudes play an important role in economic decision making and policy evaluation, particularly in the midst of unprecedented uncertainty caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. We adopt a multiple-price-list elicitation method with real money incentives to measure precisely individuals’ risk attitudes at different stake levels and the extent to which they are affected by personal and social shocks following the COVID-19 outbreak in China. We find that subjects who had previously experienced negative personal shocks are more risk-averse at medium and large stakes but more risk loving at very small stakes. For our sample, COVID-19 has no significant impact on risk attitudes, as it is more likely to be regarded as a social shock. The result indicates that the impact of COVID-19 on individual risk attitudes is not as influential as expected, unless the individual’s personal life is affected directly.     

对影响我国大学生创业倾向的因素分析

大学生自主创业在20世纪末的世界各国已经成为一种趋势。近年来,在我国由于社会竞争的日益加剧和就业形势的日益严峻,尤其是20世纪90年代大学扩招的规模日益加大,创业正在成为越来越多的大学生在被动就业之外的另一项重要选择。大学生的创业倾向越来越明显,这说明中市场经济发展的日益成熟和大学生就业理念的转变。立足于对培养大学生创业倾向的建立以及对其影响因素的分析,探讨了大学生个体因素及家庭、学校、政府等各种不同的外部环境对当代大学生创业倾向的影响,力求通过对其提出合理化建议,以培养和促进大学生创业倾向的建立和不断发展。     

Higher-order risk preferences in social settings

We study prudence and temperance (next to risk aversion) in social settings. Previous experimental studies have shown that these higher-order risk preferences affect the choices of individuals deciding privately on lotteries that only affect their own payoff. Yet, many risky and financially relevant decisions are made in the social settings of households or organizations. We elicit higher-order risk preferences of individuals and systematically vary how an individual’s decision is made (alone or while communicating with a partner) and who is affected by the decision (only the individual or the partner as well). In doing so, we can isolate the effects of other-regarding concerns and communication on choices. Our results reveal that the majority of choices are risk averse, prudent, and temperate across social settings. We also observe that individuals are influenced significantly by the preferences of a partner when they are able to communicate and choices are payoff-relevant for both of them.     

Gender and entrepreneurial success: evidence from survey data

A wealth of studies have contributed to the literature on gender differences in entrepreneurial success, but most lack key controls that aid in determining that success. Scale of the entrepreneur’s business is often not accounted for, and no studies to the author’s knowledge approach the gender comparison by specifically utilizing a sample of entrepreneur-only managed businesses. This allows for a direct comparison between individual entrepreneurs’ performance by gender, without the confounding heterogeneity that workforces may introduce. Data are taken from a national US survey of individuals, and model specifications include a number of important but oftentimes unavailable controls that have never before been used in conjunction. Female and male entrepreneurial success are statistically equal after controlling for risk preferences, intelligence, start-up capital, prior industry experience and hours worked at the business. Alternative specifications and sensitivity checks confirm and expand on these results.     

Attitudes to risk and attitudes to uncertainty: experimental evidence

In a series of experiments the interactions among individual attitudes towards risk and uncertainty, the sign of the outcome domain, and the way uncertainty is represented are tested. This is done in a unified framework, eliciting individual values by means of a second price auction. Results confirm the presence of the well-known fourfold pattern of risk attitude (risk aversion for gains and risk seeking for losses at high probability, and risk seeking for gains and risk aversion for losses at low probability) and show that this pattern can also be extended to uncertainty. In the valuation of losses the modal pattern is decreasing risk and uncertainty aversion as the probability of loss increases, while increasing risk and uncertainty aversion is observed for gains. Moreover, it is found that the size of reaction to uncertainty does not depend on the outcome domain, and that it persists in the face of an incentive-compatible mechanism to elicit preferences.     

A Dynamic Model of the Choice of Technology in Economic Development

In this overlapping-generations model, there is unemployment in the manufacturing sector. Manufacturing firms engage in oligopolistic competition and choose technologies to maximize profits. With capital as a fixed cost of production, increasing returns in the manufacturing sector exist. In the unique steady state, first, when individuals become more patient, the savings rate increases while the level of an individual’s income decreases. Second, an increase in population or percentage of income spent on manufactured goods does not change steady-state technology while the level of an individual’s income decreases. Third, an increase in the wage rate leads manufacturing firms to choose more advanced technologies and the steady-state capital stock increases. Finally, an increase in the level of subsidies to technology adoption does not change steady-state technology.