Women business owners: a source of stability during the great recession?

During the period of the Great Recession, previous research has found that women-owned firms were less likely to lay-off workers than were firms owned by men. Given that the individual firm behaviour has a cumulative effect on regional economic performance, we expect greater stability across those regions with a larger share of women-owned and managed businesses. We test this hypothesis using US county data during the period from 2007 to 2013 at the US county level. Consistent with the findings of Matsa and Miller, our results suggest that regional economic stability increases with the share of women-owned and managed establishments.     

Power,Intergroup Conflicts and Social Stratification in the United States: What has the Global Crisis Taught us?

Abstract

Drawing on early sociological analyses of how power and intergroup conflicts can affect the development of modern economies, this paper investigates how the recent Global Crisis (GC) has affected the stratification of the US society. The paper argues that the consumerist society has reinforced the historical stratification of social identities with white men in high-paid, high-social status managerial and financial occupations at the top, and black women in low-paid, low-status service occupations at the bottom. This paper calls for a deconstruction of the neoliberal individual into a unique combination of identities in a stratified capitalist society in order to reveal how social stratification has evolved during the GC. The paper finally concludes on the importance of heterogeneous identities in reflecting the diversity of societal and economic interests in order to address the issues of financial stability and sustainability at the corporate and societal levels.     

Has International Trade in Saving Improved US Economic Welfare?

Over the past decade international policy-makers have perceived the current account deficit of the world's largest foreign borrower economy, the United States, as a threat to global economic and financial stability. Yet, by bridging the US domestic saving-investment gap, capital inflow that matched the huge US current account deficit also enabled a faster rate of domestic capital accumulation than home saving alone would have permitted. Consistent with the theory of international capital movements, this study identifies and compares the respective contributions of domestic and foreign saving to US gross domestic product per worker over the two decades prior to the onset of the US banking crisis. By revealing that foreign borrowing contributed significantly to raising US output and hence living standards over this period, it adds a new dimension to the debate about global imbalances.     

Fixed investment,factor substitution and the elasticity of demand

The results of comparative stability analysis of demand- and supply-side input–output models using the UK data are presented, as well as the results of the comparison between the UK and US comparative stability analyses of the two models. The results of comparative stability analysis of the two models using the US data were reported elsewhere (Bon, 1986). The forecasts of sectoral and total output of the two models are generated with known final demand and value added figures from subsequent tables, and are compared with known output figures for benchmark years. The results of the UK and US studies are very similar. The demand-side model performs somewhat better in terms of total output forecasts, but the supply-side model performs some-what better for a larger number of sectors. In particular, the supply-side model offers better forecasts for the mature economic sectors such as agriculture, mining, and construction. Both models should be used to determine the extent to which an extent to which an economy or a sector are demand- or supply-driven.     

Accounting for Stability

There is no consensus about the causes of the reduction in businesscycle volatility seen in many major economies over the lastdecade. Using stylised models of the economies of the US, Euroarea, UK and Japan, we argue that economic stability has beenfostered by improved monetary policy and by associated changesin the behaviour of inflation, which has itself led to a reductionin the volatility of economic shocks. Our projections suggestthat a number of major economies could continue to enjoy anunusual degree of stability, granted average luck and currentinstitutions. (JEL E3, E52, F01)     

Portfolio flows and the US dollar–yen exchange rate

This paper investigates the effects of portfolio flows on the US dollar–Japanese yen exchange rate changes over the period 1988:01–2011:04. Using a time-varying transition probability Markov-switching framework, the results suggest that the impact of portfolio flows on the dollar–yen exchange rate changes is state-dependent. In particular, the results show that portfolio inflows from Japan toward the US, more than monetary variables, strengthen the probability of remaining in the dollar–yen appreciation (low volatility) state. Therefore, credit controls on the flows can be used as a policy tool to pursue economic and financial stability.     

Religious adherence and county economic growth in the US

We estimate a Barro-type conditional convergence model using religious adherence data from the American Religious Data Archive to analyze independent effects of church adherence rates on economic growth in the United States at the county-level. Per capita income growth is modeled as a function of initial per capita income, initial human capital stock, and a set of control and related variables including religious adherence, religious diversity, and regional indicator variables. We also investigate the independent effects of three main denominations, namely Catholics, Evangelical Christians, and Mainline Christians, on county economic growth. Our results indicate that the religious adherence in general is significantly greater than zero and not beneficial for US county income growth. We find mixed results for effects of various denominations.     

大国经济发展的典型化特征

大国经济发展有着诸多的经验事实,从经验事实中归纳出典型化事实,并抽象出典型化特征,这是大国经济研究的逻辑起点。本文在界定典型化事实和典型化特征的前提下,以新兴大国的代表--“金砖国家”为经验对象,总结和概括了大国经济发展的典型化特征,包括大国国内需求的规模性与稳定性、大国要素禀赋的异质性与适应性、大国产业部门的完整性与独立性、大国区域经济的差异性与互补性、大国经济结构的多元性与层次性、大国制度创新的实验性与渐进性。     

Effect of Diversity of Large Wildlife Species on Financial Benefits to Local Communities in Northwest Namibia

There exist few quantitative assessments of the relationship between biodiversity per se and economic benefits at scales that are relevant for conservation. Similarly, the merits of Community-Based Natural Resource Management programs for both wildlife and people are contested. Here, we harness two databases, on wildlife surveys and financial benefits, to address these issues for communal conservancies in northwest Namibia. We use ordination methods to characterize the diversity and stability of large wildlife assemblages on conservancies, and demonstrate that diversity (but not stability) is an important explanator of conservancy financial benefits. Our results indicate that for this area of Namibia, biodiversity, as represented by large wildlife assemblages, has an important, positive effect on the tangible financial benefits that people derive from conservation programs.     

Oil shocks,US economic uncertainty,and emerging stock markets

This paper investigates the impacts of oil price shocks and US economic uncertainty on emerging equity markets within a structural VAR model. I find that both precautionary oil demand and US economic uncertainty shocks have significant negative effects on emerging stock returns, whereas aggregate demand shocks cause a sustained rise of the returns. In particular, the direct effects of oil shocks on emerging stock returns are amplified by the endogenous response of US economic uncertainty. Variance decomposition analysis shows that oil market fundamentals and US economic uncertainty are an important determinant of emerging equity returns, accounting for 35% and 24% of their long-term variations, respectively. The heterogeneous impacts of structural shocks on individual emerging markets, however, suggest that a well-diversified portfolio can be obtainable.     

主权财富基金与世界经济失衡的互动关系探析

主权财富基金与世界经济失衡之间存在复杂的互动关系,世界经济失衡的加剧为主权财富基金提供了巨额的剩余外汇储备,因此主权财富基金的兴起是世界经济失衡的产物。稳定型主权财富基金将新兴经济体大量的剩余外汇储备主要以购买国债的形式流回了美国,对增强世界经济失衡的持续性发挥了重要作用;"高收益、高风险"的战略型主权财富基金将使得那些原本流入美国国债市场的外汇储备转向日本、欧洲、新兴国家等风险资产市场,从多种途径对世界经济失衡的调整做出贡献。     

Global reserve currency system: Why will the dollar standard give way to a tripolar currency order?

The recent financial crisis highlighted some of the underlying defects in the dollar-based reserve system. This paper argues that the era of the US hegemonic stability and unipolarity, which provided the foundation for the dollar’s sustenance as the pre-eminent global reserve currency, has already peaked and the global economy of the future will revolve around a multipolar order. The rise of China, along with other emerging markets, is rapidly redrawing the traditional Western dominated global economic system. The structural challenges facing the American economy along with the extraordinary expansion of Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and the explosion of the US government debt will diminish the attractiveness of the dollar standard going forward. Our analysis suggests that a tripolar currency order—consisting of the dollar, the yuan and the euro—will replace the dollar standard in the coming decades.     

Stability through cycles

Economic variables like GDP growth, employment, interest rates and consumption show signs of cyclical behavior. Many variables display multiple cycles, with periods ranging in between 5 to even up to 100 years. We argue that multiple cycles can be associated with long-run stability of the economic system, provided that the cycle periods are such that interference is rare or absent. For a large sample of important variables, including key variables for the US, UK and the Netherlands, we document that this is indeed the case.     

Cultural diversity and economic growth: Evidence from the US during the age of mass migration

We exploit the large inflow of immigrants to the US during the 1870–1920 period to examine the effects that within-county changes in the cultural composition of the US population had on output growth. We construct measures of fractionalization and polarization to distinguish between the different effects of cultural diversity. Our main finding is that increases in cultural fractionalization significantly increased output, while increases in cultural polarization significantly decreased output. We address the issue of identifying the causal effects of cultural diversity by using the supply-push component of immigrant inflows as an instrumental variable.     

Organizational patterns of economies: an ecological perspective

A complex adaptive systems paradigm can be used to abridge theorizing in ecological and economic sciences. The paper discusses economic flows, connectivity and stability from the perspective of theoretical ecology. The global economy, by analogy with ecosystems, appears to self-organize as an ascendent system: most of the world trade is done among the tiny fraction of technologically advanced countries and trade interaction strength exhibits a power law with exponential decay. Small world behavior and preferential attachment characterizes interactions among economic agents. Industrial economies and the world economic system as a whole appear to evolve towards the ‘maximum power’ efficiency. Development that fosters efficiency in the maximum power sense (all the world becomes industrialized) implies a trade-off in socio-economic diversity, and may be antithetical to the stability of the global economy. If we take an ecological perspective, then the problem of global development does not reside in the realm of technology or global governance. It boils down to the question of required natural balance in living systems, the balance between organized complexity and overhead, the harmony between efficiency and adaptability.     

A distributional analysis of the benefits of economic freedom

Using US state-level economic freedom measures, we investigate the extent that changes in economic freedom affect US State income growth. More importantly, we study how this effect differs across income quintiles, allowing us to address the particularly timely question of who benefits from increases in economic freedom and who does not. Our results indicate that while increases in economic freedom positively contribute to income growth, the strength of this effect differs across quintiles.     

The future of farming: The value of ecosystem services in conventional and organic arable land. An experimental approach

In the current work, a novel, experimental ‘bottom-up’ approach is used to quantify the economic value of ecosystem services (ES) associated with highly modified arable landscapes in Canterbury, New Zealand. First, the role of land management practices in the maintenance and enhancement of ES in agricultural land was investigated by quantifying the economic value of ES at the field level under organic and conventional arable systems. This quantification was based on an experimental approach in contrast with earlier value transfer methods. Total economic value of ES in organic fields ranged from US $1610 to US $19,420 ha^− 1 yr^− 1 and that of conventional fields from US $1270 to US $14,570 ha^− 1 yr^− 1. The non-market value of ES in organic fields ranged from US $460 to US $5240 ha^− 1 yr^− 1. The range of non-market values of ES in conventional fields was US $50 — 1240 ha^− 1 yr^− 1. There were significant differences between organic and conventional fields for the economic values of some ES. Next, this economic information was used to extrapolate and to calculate the total and non-market value of ES in Canterbury arable land. The total annual economic and non-market values of ES for the conventional arable area in Canterbury (125,000 ha) were US $332 million and US $71 million, respectively. If half the arable area under conventional farming shifted to organic practices, the total economic value of ES would be US $192 million and US $166 million annually for organic and conventional arable area, respectively. In this case, the non-market value of ES for the organic area was US $65 million and that of conventional area was US $35 million annually. This study demonstrated that arable farming provides a range of ES which can be measured using field experiments based on ecological principles by incorporating a ‘bottom-up’ approach. The work also showed that conventional New Zealand arable farming practices can severely reduce the financial contribution of some of these services in agriculture whereas organic agricultural practices enhance their economic value.     

Economic policy uncertainty in the US: Does it matter for the Euro area?

We investigate the effects of a US economic policy uncertainty shock on some Euro area macroeconomic aggregates via Structural VARs. We model the indicators of economic policy uncertainty recently developed by  Baker et al. (2013) jointly with the aggregate price indexes and alternative indicators of the business cycle for the two above indicated economic areas. According to our SVARs, a one standard deviation shock to US economic policy uncertainty leads to a statistically significant fall in the European industrial production and prices of −0.12% and −0.06%, respectively. The contribution of the US uncertainty shock on the European aggregates is shown to be quantitatively larger than the one exerted by an Euro area-specific uncertainty shock.     

Immigration and economic freedom of the US states: Does the institutional quality of immigrants' origin countries matter?

When people immigrate to the United States from countries with less economic freedom, they do not dampen economic freedom in their destination states. We use the Economic Freedom of North America report to rate the economic freedom of US states, and we group immigrants by how far below the United States their origin countries score in the Economic Freedom of the World report. Our major findings hold true even when states receive immigrants from countries with far less economic freedom. Most relationships between immigration and the US states' economic freedom scores are neither statistically nor economically significant.     

开放视角下的国家综合负债风险与市场化分担

随着中国经济金融的日益开放,中国国家综合负债的规模与结构在动态变化:一方面,国家综合负债的某些旧因素(如银行不良资产)的存在形式发生了变化,另一方面,国家综合负债的一些新因素(社保基金缺口、巴塞尔协议的顺周期影响和汇率波动导致的外汇资产损失)开始显现。从开放视角考察,中国的国家综合负债风险形势仍较为严峻。在政府承担社会性支出的基础上,更多地重视和运用市场化分担方式是化解和防范国家综合负债风险的基本途径,保持经济持续稳定增长是应对国家综合负债风险的根本保障。