Predicting European Union Recessions in the Euro Era: The Yield Curve as a Forecasting Tool of Economic Activity

Several studies have established the predictive power of the yield curve for the U.S. and various European countries. In this paper we use data from the European Union (EU15), from 1994:Q1 to 2008:Q3. We use the European Central Bank’s euro area yield spreads to predict European real GDP deviations from the long-run trend. We also augment the models tested with non monetary policy variables: the unemployment and a composite European stock price index. The methodology employed is a probit model of the inverse cumulative distribution function of the standard distribution using several formal forecasting and goodness of fit evaluation tests. The results show that the yield curve augmented with the composite stock index has significant forecasting power in terms of the EU15 real output.     

The predictive power of yield spread: evidence from wavelet analysis

This paper examines whether the spread between long- and short-terminterest rates contains information about future economic activity in India. Using the yields on securities with maturities ranging from three months to ten years, we construct five different yield spreads at shorter end, longer end, and policy relevant area of the yield curve. We study the predictive power of each of these spreads for output growth within aggregate and time scale framework using wavelet methodology. We find that predictive power holds only at lower frequencies for the spreads which are constructed at shorter end and policy relevant areas of yield curve. However, spreads which are constructed at the longer end of the yield curve do not seem to have predictive information for output growth.     

Global imbalances,cross-market linkages,and the financial crisis: A multivariate Markov-switching analysis

Based on multivariate Markov-switching models, this paper presents new results on the interactions between global imbalances, credit spreads, housing markets, macroeconomic variables, commodities and equities during Q1-1987/Q1-2011. We show that rising global imbalances and the uncontrolled development of the US mortgage and housing markets have been deeply destabilizing the economy, with various shocks impacting subsequently equity markets and macroeconomic variables. But we also uncover, surprisingly, that the cross-market linkages with the commodity markets are strong. Finally, we identify that the US housing market lies at the epicenter of the crisis through its multiple and highly significant interactions with the other variables in the system (including the global imbalances). Sub-samples and alternative time series estimates are provided to check the statistical congruency of the various models.     

Sovereign Reputation and Yield Spreads: A Case Study on Retroactive Legislation

This paper uses recent legislation in Austria to establish a link between sovereign reputation and yield spreads. In 2009, Hypo Alpe Adria International, a bank previously co‐owned by the regional government of Carinthia, had been nationalized by Austria's central government in order to avoid a default triggering multi‐billion Euro local government guarantees. In 2015, special legislation retroactively introduced collective action clauses allowing a haircut on both the bonds and the guarantees while avoiding formal default. We document that legislative and administrative action designed to partly abrogate the guarantees resulted in a loss of reputation, leading to higher yield spreads for sovereign debt. Our analysis of covered bonds uncovers an increase in yield spreads on the secondary market and a deterioration of primary market conditions.     

Balance sheet changes and the impact of financial sector risk-taking on fiscal multipliers

We analyse implications of financial sector dynamics for fiscal expenditure multipliers in recessionary conditions. A new stock-flow consistent model is developed in which a financial sector with four financial instruments is integrated with the real sector. The transmission of policy innovations occurs through balance sheet effects. Higher government expenditure increases aggregate demand in the economy. This reduces the perceived probability of default on financial institutions’ loans, increases asset valuations, and leads financial institutions to reduce interest rate spreads. Expectations of higher future wealth and a reduction in credit constraints supports consumption growth. Stronger balance sheets across institutions and lower interest rates increase investment. The interaction between growth and balance sheet valuations creates financial accelerator effects though its impact on financial sector risk-taking. Inflows of foreign savings can increase the multiplier further than would be the case in a closed economy constrained by domestic savings. The results show that fully modelling interactions between real and financial sectors generates fiscal multipliers higher than have been found for South Africa in other types of model.     

国民收入、价格水平与 省级政府公共文化支出

国民收入的增加、价格水平的上升会促使省级地方政府加大公共文化支出占比吗？本文利用2004-2010年间30个省份的面板数据为基础进行了实证检验,研究结果表明：（1）国民收入与公共文化支出占比之间为显著的负相关关系,说明逐步“富裕”起来的地方政府并没有加大对公共文化事业的投入;（2）价格水平的上涨是迫使地方政府增加文化支出的主要原因,即“成本病”是存在的。因此,政府层面的制度改革还需要进一步完善,这应当引起决策者的关注。     

Macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Pakistan: a disaggregate analysis

This study analyzes the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy on macroeconomic variables in Pakistan. The study utilizes VAR framework and uses quarterly data of Pakistan from 1976Q1 to 2017Q4. The results showed that after an increase in government expenditures, private consumption and prices take three quarters to increase, while private investment follows the declining trend. Private consumption and interest rate are negatively related with taxes, while private investment and prices are positively related with taxes. Real GDP, private consumption and interest rate respond positively with an increase in developmental expenditure, public consumption and public investment. Private investment is negatively related with development expenditure, public consumption and public investment. An increase in direct tax as well as indirect tax leads to an increase in real GDP, private investment and interest rate, while private consumption takes three to five quarters to responds. Private investment and prices are positively related with non-tax revenue, while real GDP, private consumption and interest rate are negatively related. These results support the Keynesian view that government expenditure and taxes are useful tools to stimulate the economic activity, while crowding-out hypothesis holds in Pakistan as well. An active and efficient role of government is required for macroeconomic stability.     

The fundamentals of sovereign debt sustainability: evidence from 15 OECD countries

We study the sustainability of sovereign debt accumulation in 15 OECD countries using quarterly data from 1980 to 2010 with a focus on how and in what countries debt sustainability changed after the commencement of the Euro Convergence Criteria in 1997 as well as after the financial meltdown in 2007. We define sustainability as the validity of the inter-temporal budget constraint of the government and test a sufficient condition motivated by Bohn (Q J Econ, 113(3):949–963, 1998) using single-country and pooled regressions. We find evidence that the Euro Convergence Criteria contributed to the sustainability of debt accumulation. Further, while the yield spreads suggest the debt crisis is a problem of the southern Euro countries, we find a lack of debt sustainability for Greece, Portugal and France but not for Italy and Spain. In terms of debt sustainability, the crisis adversely affected primarily stand-alone countries rather than members of the European Monetary Union. Nevertheless, yield spreads increased more in the southern countries of the monetary union than in stand-alone countries. Our results support the view that countries within a monetary union are more prone to investors’ sentiments than stand-alone countries.     

Government risk premiums in the bond market: EMU and Canada

This paper focuses on risk premiums paid by central governments in Europe and sub-national governments in Germany, Spain, and Canada, using data for bond yield spreads for the period 1991–2005. We find that risk premiums by central governments respond positively to debt and deficits; German states enjoyed a favourable position in financial markets before EMU but not thereafter; Spanish and Canadian provinces risk premiums over the whole period; German and Spanish sub-central governments pay liquidity-related interest rate premiums; Canadian and German provinces/states that benefit from fiscal equalization lower spreads. This is evidence of market discipline at work and of credibility of the EU no-bailout clause.     

The effects of government expenditure on imports in the Eurozone reconsidered: evidence from panel data

This study examines the impact of government expenditure on imports. The empirical analysis is based on annual data of the euro area countries for the period 1995–2015. We employ econometric methods that mitigate heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence. We provide empirical indications that the components of expenditure have different impact on imports demand. The findings of this study indicate that the import context of government expenditure is lower than the import context of others expenditure components. Finally, we find that an increase in government expenditure leads to an increase in imports; this implies that, ceteris paribus that it can lead to a deterioration of the trade balance.     

Fiscal consolidation in Europe: has it worked?

The aim of this article is to shed some light on the issue of fiscal austerity within Europe. We focus specifically on the 2008Q1–2014Q4 period, and on the effect of shocks to government expenditure and taxes on unemployment, controlling for other macro factors. We find that expenditure contractions may be detrimental for employment.     

Fiscal multipliers in the Eurozone: an SVAR analysis

We compute the value of fiscal multipliers (for government primary expenditure, Income and wealth taxes and for Production and import taxes) in the Eurozone countries since the creation of the currency union (2000Q1-2016Q4), in order to understand how the values can vary according to the public debt level, the pace of economic growth, and the output gap. Imposing quarterly fiscal shocks, the results showed that government expenditure had a positive effect on output, with an annual accumulated multiplier of 0.44, whereas tax multipliers presented negative signs: the Income and wealth and the Production and import taxes stood at ?0.11 and ?0.55, respectively. Furthermore, the spending multiplier showed a higher value for countries with lower levels of public debt, during recessions, and in countries with negative output gaps. On the other hand, tax shocks seemed to be recessive in highly indebted countries and those facing positive output gaps.     

The Interactions between the Credit Default Swap and the Bond Markets in Financial Turmoil

We analyse the links between credit default swap (CDS) and bond spreads in order to determine which one is the leading market in the price discovery process. To do that, we construct a sample of CDS premia and bond spreads on a generic 5‐year bond for 17 financials and 18 sovereigns. First, we run panel vector error correction model estimations, showing that the CDS market has a lead over the bond market for financial institutions. This also holds for high‐yield sovereigns, whereas the reverse is found for low‐yield sovereigns in the core of the euro area. We interpret these results according to the relative liquidity of both markets for different types of entities. Second, we check for nonlinearities in the adjustment process. Results show that the CDS market's lead is amplified when default risk increases, during crisis periods, as well as continuously when CDS premia increase.     

Determinants of nonresident government debt ownership

We examine the determinants of nonresident government debt ownership, accounting for domestic and external factors and financial variables during the period 2000Q2–2014Q4, focussing on a small euro area open economy: Portugal. Our results show that better fiscal positions, higher systematic stress in Europe and higher shares of monetary and financial institutions (MFI) cross-border holdings of public debt, increase the share of nonresident held debt, and rising sovereign yields decrease that ratio.     

TIME‐VARYING VOLATILITY,DEFAULT, AND THE SOVEREIGN RISK PREMIUM

This article studies how volatility changes affect sovereign spreads in strategic default models. Volatility changes affect savings and sovereign spreads. However, the impact of volatility shocks is state dependent; when the economy has a low debt, an increase in volatility is prone to generate precautionary savings. Instead, with high debt, an increase in volatility is likely to induce an even further increase in debt and spreads, both in endowment and production economies. I document a positive correlation between sovereign spreads and aggregate income volatility for a set of European economies during the debt crisis, consistent with the model's implications.     

Disentangling the Predictive Power of Term Spreads under Inflation Targeting

Under inflation targeting, S. Cho and J. Lee (2014, Inflation targeting and predictive power of term spreads. Seoul Journal of Economics, 27, 391–419), A. Estrella (2005, Why does the yield curve predict output and inflation? The Economic Journal, 115, 722–744) and P.L. Siklos (2000, Inflation targets and the yield curve: New Zealand and Australia versus the US. International Journal of Finance &; Economics, 5, 15–32) have reported that the predictive power of yield spreads for future inflation decreases in inflation targeting countries. In this paper, we decompose the yield spread into the expectations hypothesis component and the term premium, and find that the decrease in the predictability is mostly due to the deterioration of information embedded in the expectations hypothesis component. Our finding reveals that if inflation targeting is successful in achieving its main goal, then the expectations for future inflation are anchored at the target inflation rate (or range), and thereby the predictive contents of the term spreads regarding future inflation decrease.     

ICT-specific technological progress in the United Kingdom

This paper analyses the impact of rapid technological change in the information and communications technology (ICT) sector on economic growth in the United Kingdom. We find that technological progress specific to the ICT sector accounts for around 20–30% of long-run labor productivity growth. We demonstrate that a permanent increase in the growth rate of ICT-specific technological progress will increase the investment expenditure share of GDP but lower the aggregate depreciation rate, while an increase in the return to investment in ICT will increase both the expenditure share and the depreciation rate.     

When does Strategic Debt-service Matter?

Recent work in corporate finance has suggested that strategic debt-service by equity-holders works to lower debt values and raise yield spreads substantially. We show that this is not quite correct. With optimal cash management, defaults occassioned by deliberate underperformance (strategic defaults) and those forced by inadequate cash (liquidity defaults) work as substitutes: allowing for strategic debt-service leads to a decline in the equilibrium likelihood of liquidity defaults. In some cases, this decline is sufficiently sharp that equilibrium debt values actually increase and yield spreads decline. We provide an intuitive explanation for these results in terms of an interaction of optionalitiesExpanded versions of this paper were presented in conferences and seminars at the Scottish Institute for Research in Finance, European Finance Association, Western Finance Association, Financial Management Association, 10th Derivative Securities Conference, Santa Clara University, Virginia Tech, the Norwegian School of Management, the Norwegian School of Business and Economics, Duke University, and Carnegie-Mellon University. We benefitted greatly from the comments of participants at these seminars and would particularly like to thank Francesca Cornelli, Kose John, Pete Kyle, Sanjay Unni, and Raman Uppal in this context     

Remittances and bond yield spreads in emerging market economies

This paper tests whether remittances reduce bond yield spreads in emerging market economies. Drawing upon instrumental variable techniques, our paper reveals that remittance inflows significantly reduce bond yield spreads. This result is robust to different specifications, alternative instrumentation techniques, additional control variables, and the use of credit default swap spreads in place of bond spreads. In addition, we find that the effect of remittances on spreads (i) is larger in (more) poorly developed financial systems, (ii) increases with the degree of trade openness, (iii) is larger in low fiscal space regimes, and (iv) is larger in nonremittance‐dependent countries. The paper concludes that policies that improve the measurement of remittance inflows and reduce their transfer costs or that enable countries to develop securitization of remittances and diaspora bonds could help emerging market economies to leverage remittances for international capital market access.     

Controllability and Persistence of Money Market Rates along the Yield Curve: Evidence from the Euro Area

Abstract. Controllability of longer‐term interest rates requires that the persistence of their deviations from the central bank's policy rate (i.e. the policy spreads) remains sufficiently low. This paper applies fractional integration techniques to assess the persistence of policy spreads of euro area money market rates along the yield curve. Independently from anticipated policy rate changes, there is strong evidence for all maturities that policy spreads exhibit long memory. We show that recent changes in the operational framework and the communication strategy of the European Central Bank (ECB) have significantly decreased the persistence of euro area policy spreads and, thus, have enhanced the ECB's influence on longer‐term money market rates.