旅游概念诠释

旅游概念的内涵与外延的不确定,不仅影响旅游学科的构架与理论体系发展,而且影响旅游科学具体问题的研究。随着社会发展伦理观从“经济发展”观向“可持续发展观”的转变,有必要对旅游的定义进行科学的阐释。文章在分析了现有的旅游观点:“旅游是不是产业”和旅游是指“旅游者的活动”,对已有的旅游定义进行了归类分析,并提出了旅游的概念性定义。     

Tourism–growth nexus in Pakistan: Evidence from ARDL bounds tests

This study is an attempt to test the long run relationship between international tourism and economic growth of Pakistan by using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) models over the period of 1972 to 2011. The initial results show that the causality runs from tourism to economic growth. Furthermore, the estimated growth regression clearly indicates that the international tourism has a significantly positive impact on the economic growth of Pakistan along with other variables like physical capital and international trade. This implies that the improvement in the tourism sector may enhance the economic growth activities in Pakistan.     

国际“过度旅游”现象述评

“过度旅游”对可持续发展具有关键性的负向影响。人类旅行与旅游活动经历了一个漫长的发展过程,2000年前后,全球大多数国家和地区都已经或开始进入大众旅游时代。旅游发展的各种影响——经济的和非经济的、积极的和负面的——都在不断扩大。从总的趋势而言,当人类旅行与旅游活动人数规模、访问区域、增长速度和影响较小的时候,对旅游发展的反对声音多局限在特定地区、时段和人群,但随着旅游规模扩展与速度逐渐加快,“拥挤度”加大的情况下,反对的声音则越来越强烈,甚至开始从情绪上反对转变成社会行动。到21世纪第二个十年的后期,“过度旅游”开始变成一种“全球关注”,关注的群体由最初的旅游目的地居民扩展到学术界、国际旅游机构、旅游业界、国家政府相关机构以及各类媒体,旅游者本身也参与其中。这一关注在2018年形成高潮,“overtourism”正式被英国《牛津英语词典》选入当年的年度词汇。于是,国际社会越来越关注“过度旅游”现象,并以不同的方式确定其含义,评估其影响,探讨产生的原因和谋划应对策略与行动。尽管对“过度旅游”现象的认识还存在着很多分歧,政府、业界、社会乃至旅游者对待这一现象的态度大相径庭,但毕竟这一现象引起了全球的关注,因此,了解和研究这一现象,探讨其发展趋势,应当是旅游相关学术机构的责任。本文旨在为对“过度旅游”现象的来龙去脉做一个初步的梳理,以期推进我国学术界关注这个“全球关注”现象的研究,促进我国旅游业健康有序地发展。也许“过度旅游”在中国尚未成为严重问题,但未雨绸缪、防患于未然是非常必要的。更何况,在全球更加开放,全球化不断深化的国际背景下,一个遍及全球的问题,恐怕中国也很难独善其身。     

Tourism,trade and growth: the case of Cyprus

Although the relationship between international trade and economic growth has found a wide application area in the literature over the years, this can not be said about tourism and growth or trade and tourism. This study employs the bounds test for cointegration and Granger causality tests to investigate a long-run equilibrium relationship between tourism, trade and real income growth, and the direction of causality among themselves for Cyprus. Results reveal that tourism, trade and real income growth are cointegrated; thus, a long-run equilibrium relationship can be inferred between these three variables. On the other hand, Granger causality test results suggest that real income growth stimulates growth in international trade (both exports and imports) and international tourist arrivals to the island. Furthermore, growth in international trade (both exports and imports) also stimulates an increase in international tourist arrivals to Cyprus. And finally, real import growth stimulate growth in real exports in the case of Cyprus.     

The Linkage Between Tourism Development and Economic Growth in Malaysia: A Nonlinear Approach

In this study, we examine the nonlinear relationship between international tourism arrival and economic growth of Malaysia by using asymmetric models over the periods 2000:1–2015:4. The results show that the tourism arrival is positively related to Malaysia’s economic growth in the long run, but there is no short-run relationship and other traditional growth factors such as trade, exchange rate and Consumer Price Index are important for economic growth in the case of Malaysia. This implies that tourism can be one of the important factors for Malaysia’s economic growth in the long run and development and can be used to stimulate the overall economic growth and hence, policy-makers should pay greater attention towards promoting inbound tourism.     

基于计量经济学模型的中国旅游服务贸易研究

中国山河锦绣,有着丰富的自然资源,自然景观和人文景观相互映衬;中国是人类文明的发源地之一,中华民族共同创造的灿烂文化构成了巨大的人文旅游资源优势。近十年来,旅游业在全球蓬勃发展,而壮丽旖旎的中国也吸引着来自世界各国的游客。旅游服务业的发展对中国服务贸易的发展有着举足轻重的影响。本文通过对中国旅游服务贸易出口的计量经济研究,找出影响因素,从而对今后中国旅游服务贸易发展提出建议。     

论近城风景名胜区保护的意义和价值--以南京市钟山风景名胜区为例

近城风景名胜区与所依托的城市关系密切,其保护对于提高城市经济、社会和环境效益具有重要作用。文章以南京市钟山风景名胜区为例,分析了近城风景名胜区的区位及其功能变化,认为钟山风景名胜区逐渐由城郊、城缘走进了城内,其功能除了原来单纯的风景区文物保护、环境保护和发展旅游等内容外,尚具有“南京市区维护生态平衡基地、国际旅游圣地、全市主要文化娱乐园地、古都风貌维护核心”的独特功能。因此,钟山风景名胜区保护的意义和价值即是南京历史的见证、古城的象征、创建最佳人居环境的基础和发展旅游经济的重要基地。     

广西入境旅游区域发展差异分析

采用经济学中的标准差、变异系数以及泰尔指教对2003-2010年广西备市及桂北、桂东、桂南、桂西、桂中五个区域的入境旅游人数和入境旅游收入进行区域性差异分析。研究发现广西入境旅游组内差异大于组间差异,各区域的入境旅游经济受国际环境、旅游营销措施、各地对旅游发展的重视程度、旅游产品转型升级以及与主要客源国之间合作的影响。在此基础上提出了南宁一北海“双核”经济发展空间廊道,建立现代国际旅游营销体系,加大对旅游发展重视程度,抓机遇、促发展等措施建议。     

国际旅游对生态环境及卫生安全的影响与应对措施研究

21世纪,随着经济全球化以及交通、通信技术的迅速发展,国际旅游业也迅猛发展。国际旅游业的发展,在带动世界各国经济发展的同时,也对一国的生态保护和公共卫生安全带来一些不可避免的负面影响。主要包括：促进了性疾病的传播,破坏了旅游地环境卫生和生态平衡,带来了疾病的跨境传播等。在对上述影响具体分析基础上,结合中国国际旅游发展的实际,文章认为在积极推动国际旅游业发展的同时,也应当加强国际旅游业中的生态保护和公共卫生安全管理,建立有效的应对国际旅游引发的生态事件预防、处理制度和系统。     

基于循环经济理论的区域生态旅游发展探索

循环经济是当今世界经济的的热点,是实现可持续发展的一种全新的经济模式。分析了循环经济理论对发展区域生态旅游的指导意义,初步探讨发展区域旅游循环经济的实施模式及保障措施。     

企业可持续增长财务问题研究的经济学基础——启示与假设

分析企业可持续增长财务问题的经济学基础,可以为该问题的研究提供一个可行的思路。与企业可持续增长财务问题相对应的经济学基础是宏观的经济增长理论。从凯恩斯以后的经济增长理论及其外延理论中,可以梳理出企业可持续增长思想的渊源,进而可以针对3个主要研究命题及其疑点,提出几个主要的研究假设,是企业可持续增长率以及增长效率实现与否的决定因素。     

乡村旅游电子商务发展与网络系统构建

网络经济时代到来,旅游信息成为行业重要战略资源,电子商务的发展为旅游业信息化提供主要支持。乡村旅游已发展成为当前最热旅游活动之一,具有广阔电子商务发展空间。以国内外乡村旅游电子商务网建设为案例,从网络建设角度,分析比较得出国内乡村旅游电子商务发展处于初级阶段,电子商务网络结构与功能模式滞后。针对电子商务网络发展的现状,结合国际旅游电子商务网建设经验,对我国乡村旅游电子商务网络结构与功能设计进行理论归纳,以期提供理论与实证借鉴。     

Contribution of international ecotourism to comprehensive economic development and convergence in the Central American and Caribbean region

Drawing on the positive experience from Costa Rica, the study examines whether international ecotourism makes a significant contribution to comprehensive economic development for the Central American and Caribbean region and contributes to comprehensive economic convergence. Following a standard empirical growth model, a dynamic panel regression model is estimated using time-series data from 1995 until 2012 for a cross section of seven countries. The interaction of international tourism and various established sustainability indicators is employed allowing ecotourism to be consistently quantified across countries, while numerous country-specific structural characteristics are controlled for. The estimation results show that international ecotourism has a statistically significant positive effect on both traditional economic development (real GDP per capita) and comprehensive economic development (adjusted net savings; ANS per capita), which is a measure of a society’s potential future well-being, thus providing evidence in support of the tourism-led growth hypothesis and pointing towards an important role for ecotourism in driving comprehensive economic convergence.     

对中国国际入境旅游市场的滚动样本预测——基于季节效应ARIMA模型

入境旅游市场的发展能够促进我国经济社会的可持续发展,入境客流量的精确预测和分析对旅游规划与管理具有重要意义.鉴于现有文献大多采用年度数据进行预测等问题,采用新的包含季节变量的ARIMA模型对6个我国主要入境旅游客源国1990～2006年间的数据进行回归分析,并采用滚动样本方法进行样本外动态预测,回归模型以及预测结果均表明该模型能够很好地拟合数据,对旅游预测可行且十分有效.     

Growth effects of leisure tourism and the level of economic development

This study examines (1) whether leisure tourism can contribute to economic growth and (2) if it does, whether its growth effects are constant across levels of economic development. Leisure tourism differs from business tourism in the causal relation with economic growth. In addition, the natural and heritage-related resources for leisure tourism are limited and not reproducible. This notion has a significant implication for the relationship between the growth effects of leisure tourism and the level of economic development. Thus, the current study focuses on leisure tourism and controls for the effects of business tourism. As an economy grows, the growth effects of leisure tourism are expected to diminish due to a lack of continued productivity improvement in the tourism industry. The empirical findings in this research reveal that leisure tourism contributes to economic growth at an early stage of economic development, but its contribution becomes weaker as the economy develops.     

EXPORTS,EXPORT COMPOSITION AND GROWTH: A SIMULTANEOUS ERROR-CORRECTION MODEL FOR TUNISIA

The export-economic growth relationship has been dealt with in several empirical studies concerning cross-section and time series data. Although this research has contributed to measure the impact of exports on economic growth, it still has three main drawbacks. First, the studies on cross-section data suppose homogeneous production techniques for the countries involved. Second, most of the research introduces a bias in the estimation of the export impact on economic growth since it neglects all effects of simultaneity between these two variables. Finally, most of the estimated regressions in these studies may constitute ‘spurious‘ regressions since the analysis of the stationarity of the variables is missing. This paper considers the Tunisian case and tries to study the dynamics between growth and exports through a simultaneous error correction model. The study shows the presence of a positive and significant relationship between exports and economic growth driven by manufactured exports rather than food-processing exports and international tourism. The measurement of such a relationship is understated if the simultaneity between export expansion and G.D.P growth is ignored. [C 32, C 51, C 52, F 43]     

人口转变、人口政策影响经济增长的可持续性研究——基于中西方经验认识基础上的理论分析框架

人口转变、人口政策影响经济增长的可持续性研究具有重要的理论意义和实践价值。本文介绍了相关理论研究成果,提出了研究的基本思路,确立了核心研究范畴、研究方法和研究的主体内容,并针对西部经济社会发展条件的差异,指出了人口转变、人口政策影响经济增长可持续性的区域性研究应把握的重点和难点。     

我国海洋旅游发展的回顾与展望

文章从海洋旅游资源、海洋旅游产品以及海洋旅游市场状态三方面对我国海洋旅游发展状况进行了总结和回顾。并在研究大量资料的基础上，对我围海洋旅游在可持续发展理论、经济学理论及海洋旅游发展的专题理论研究进行了较全面、深入的评述。对我国海洋旅游业的发展提出展望，认为我国海洋旅游业的发展应在现有成就的基础上，从可持续发展的理念出发，以“生态性”为发展方向；通过区域间资源的整合进行区域合作，积极向国际通用的国家公园靠拢，建立我国海洋国家公园；注重开发多样化、深层次海洋旅游产品；发展新的海洋旅游业态，使之成为地方旅游业的新增长点。     

A macroeconomic analysis of the public investments in European combined transport

Intermodal transport has been recognized as a priority by the European Union, that has defined different budget allocations of investments to improve the shifting from road to intermodal transport, which is more sustainable. In this context, the main aim of the paper is to discuss the macroeconomic effects, in terms of economic growth, welfare and trade, of these public investments for combined transport, which aspects have been neglected in literature. A multi-country computable general equilibrium model has been used. The main results have been that the European Union benefits from these investments, but at international level, USA and Japan would lose in terms of welfare. Furthermore, the welfare change has been decomposed in its components and the results show that the trade effects are higher than the allocative effects. The robustness of the results has been tested over time and by a sensitivity analysis of the exchange rate.     

基于旅游地可持续发展的旅行社运营策略研究

随着市场经济的发展和经济结构的调整，旅游业在国民经济中的地位越来越重要，但由于旅游活动直接触及旅游目的地的生态系统及文化遗存，可持续发展成为其必然的选择。旅行社作为旅游业中的关键环节，可以通过业务整合、经营方式调整影响相关利益主体来推动旅游目的地的可持续发展。