改革土地出让方式势在必行

2012年全国"两会"期间,温家宝总理在回答《人民日报》记者提问时说:"我最近出于一种责任感,把从2003年开始的房地产调控认真地回顾了一下。为什么调控不见成效?群众也在责怪我们,说房价越调越高,政策不出中南海。我听到了感到十分痛心。"我们同样要问:为什么房价调控不见成效?究其原因,主要是目前的一系列调控政策治标不治本,调控政策并没有对现行的土地批租制对房价     

土地年租制:住宅用地制度改革的方向

在厘清土地年租制、租赁制、出让制三者之间关系的基础上,阐述了土地年租制的本质是以长期契约为核心的租赁制,分析了城市住房土地年租制及其特征,剖析了我国现有城市住房土地使用制度存在的弊端,指出土地年租制是对我国城市住房土地使用制度的创新,提出了实施城市住房土地年租制应注意的问题及解决思路.     

上海土地批租试点的记忆

1988年8月8日．虹桥开发区26号地块有偿出让的国际招投标项目最终尘埃落定,日本孙氏企业有限公司以2805万美元的价格．获得了该地块1．29公顷50年的土地使用权。这是新中国历史上第一次对国有土地使用权实行批租,也是上海乃至全国土地使用制度改革试点取得成功的重要标志。     

房地产租税费改革探微

本文提出应保留土地批租制,反对实行土地年租金制改革;主张保留并完善现行土地增值税;主张保留印花税,维持税制统一;提出应将契税与城镇土地使用税和房产税一起并入统一后的房地产税。     

房地产租税费改革探微

本文提出应保留土地批租制,反对实行土地年租金制改革;主张保留并完善现行土地增值税;主张保留印花税,维持税制统一;提出应将契税与城镇土地使用税和房产税一起并入统一后的房地产税.     

北京市房价过高的原因和房价控制

北京市房价过高 ,这是公认的事实 ,而且房价与当地居民的收入又严重背离。找出房价过高的原因 ,进而找到降低房价的办法是一个亟待研究的课题。本文通过分析房价的构成因素 ,发现土地费用过高是造成北京市房价过高的主要原因。加大政府对土地的管理 ,严禁炒卖地皮 ,盘活市内存量土地 ,严格控制城市建成区“摊大饼”式地向郊区扩展 ,才能达到合理利用土地并降低房价的目的。　　一、北京市房价过高的原因　　国家统计局月度形势报告显示 ,2 0 0 1年 6月份全国大中城市商品房每平方米平均销售价格为2 30 4元。北京列榜首 ,每平方米平均售价达 …     

Reducing revisions in hedonic house price indices by the use of nowcasts

National Statistical Institutes (NSIs) must balance between timeliness and accuracy of the indicators they publish. Because some of the house sales transactions are reported several months after they occur, many countries that include Israel, publish provisional house price indices (HPIs) that are subject to large revisions as further transactions are reported. This happens because the late-reported transactions behave differently from the transactions reported on time. In this paper, we propose a novel methodology to minimize the size of the revisions, with illustrations from Israel, but the method can be applied to other countries with appropriate modifications. The proposed methodology consists of nowcasting three types of variables at a subdistrict level and adding them as input data to an extended hedonic model used for the computation of the HPI: (1) the average characteristics of the late-reported transactions such as the average number of rooms and the area size of the sold apartments; (2) the average price of the late-reported transactions; and (3) the number of late-reported transactions. The three variables are nowcasted based on models fitted to data from previous months. Evaluation of our methodology shows more than 50% reduction in the magnitude of the revisions.     

A house price index based on the SPAR method

Within the European Union there has been a push to provide European governments and the European Central Bank with the statistics they need for monitoring the owner-occupied sector. This paper reports on the results of a project to develop a house price index for the Netherlands. From January 2008, Kadaster, the Dutch land registry office, and Statistics Netherlands began jointly publishing house price index numbers for the whole country and for some specific dwelling types and regions. A number of special institutional features of the situation in the Netherlands contributed to the choice of index construction method. The indexes are computed using the Sale Price Appraisal Ratio (SPAR) method, which utilizes the ratios of transaction prices and previous appraisal values. We describe the SPAR method, compare it with repeat sales methods and assess the reliability of the official Dutch appraisal values. Empirical results for January 1995–March 2009 are presented. The SPAR method performs well compared to repeat sales, and the results reported will be of interest to other countries that have, or could instigate, institutional arrangements similar to those in the Netherlands.     

Imperfect information and the house price in a general-equilibrium model

House prices have inertia, which may be because housing-market participants need time to recognize long booms and recessions. Within a dynamic stochastic general-equilibrium model with an endogenous market for housing, I consider the case of rational expectations subject to imperfect information about the persistence of exogenous shocks. I evaluate the performance of the model against the last 40 years of key U.S. macroeconomic data. Bayesian comparison strongly favors the model over the baseline case with perfect information. Under imperfect information, agents rely on learning to form expectations, which improves the ability of the model to generate realistic low-frequency house-price dynamics. However, as long as the agents form expectations rationally, the improvement is limited. Furthermore, to confine price inertia within the housing market is a challenge for the general-equilibrium approach.     

从供给角度分析北京市房价偏高的原因

本文从住宅供给量和存量房市场两方面对北京、上海进行对比分析 ,从供给角度剖析北京市房价偏高的原因。     

What is the role of the asking price for a house?

This paper considers the role of the asking price in housing transactions both theoretically and empirically. Significant fractions of housing transactions involve sales prices that are either below or above asking price, which might suggest that asking price has limited relevance. However, many housing transactions involve a sales price exactly equal to asking price (a fact that has previously drawn little notice), strongly suggesting that asking price does matter. The paper develops a model where asking price is neither a binding commitment nor a ceiling, yet still directs buyer search and impacts sales price. Using novel survey data, the paper provides empirical evidence consistent with asking price playing a directing role in buyer search. Consistent with theory, this effect is stronger for more atypical houses and in bust markets.     

Unemployment risk, house price risk and the transition into home ownership in the United Kingdom

Using household panel data, this paper examines the impact of income uncertainty, in the form of unemployment risk, on home ownership in the United Kingdom. The existing literature based on cross-sectional studies finds a negative relationship between income uncertainty and home ownership. This paper utilises data on transitions into home ownership and exogenous variation in unemployment risk, avoiding the endogeneity of employment to home ownership status. It also conditions the empirical estimates on a measure of house price volatility utilising a local-level house price index to control house price risk, which might also discourage home ownership. Results show a strong role for unemployment risk in lowering the likelihood of house purchase, but no statistically significant role for house price risk.     

Dissecting the myth of the house price in Chinese metropolises: allowing for behavioral heterogeneity among investors

This paper aims to demystify the housing boom in Chinese metropolises by allowing for behavioral heterogeneity among investors. We construct an agent-based model where investors are categorized into two groups: fundamentalists and chartists. In addition, the investment strategy switching is allowed between these two groups contingent on the historical performance. Using the data of five Chinese metropolises over the period 2008–2014, the results suggest that chartists dominate the housing market and make the house price maintain an upward trend, while fundamentalists play a stabilizing role. Specifically, fundamentalists can serve as a “price anchor” in the market, because the proportion of the fundamentalists is negatively associated with both the growth rate of the house price and the deviation relative to the fundamental value. Overall, the impact of the chartists on the house price is much greater than that of the fundamentalists, which contributes to the ever-increasing house price in Chinese metropolises.

     

基于租赁价格的房地产价格泡沫测度研究--以广州市房地产价格数据为例

在对房地产基础价值进行界定的基础上,提出了基于房地产租赁价格并考虑通胀因素的房地产价格泡沫测度方法。利用广州市2001-2013年的相关数据,对房地产价格泡沫程度进行了分析,并提出了相应的警戒标准,进而得出结论：以广州市为代表的一线城市的房地产价格尚未达到30%的泡沫警戒线,房价涨跌幅度仍属市场机制调节的正常范围,因而没有必要采取非市场调节手段干预房价的正常波动。     

浅析中国现阶段房价问题的伦理本质与应对之策

文章从应用伦理学的角度,分析了中国现阶段房价问题的伦理本质:调控行为缺乏公正性以及传统伦理向制度伦理的转型尚未完成,并针对伦理缺失的现状,提出了解决对策.