金融全球化与经济转轨国家金融改革的路径选择

自1990年代以来，随着经济全球化的不断深化，随着贸易自由化和生产国际化的进一步扩大，金融全球化和金融自由化已成为一种更加明显甚至是必然的趋势。这一趋势对经济转轨国家利弊兼具，其影响既有正面的，也有负面的；既有积极的一面，也有消极的一面。经济转轨国家不仅要直面金融全球化所带来的利益和风险，而且要承受金融全球化与其经济互动所产生的双重效应。如何在融入金融全球化进程和加速金融自由化的同时降低金融风险，并正确选择金融改革的有效路径，这是经济转轨国家普遍面临的现实问题或者说是必须在金融全球化进程中加以解决的问题。本文以俄罗斯和中国这两个各具典型意义的经济转轨国家为研究对象，探讨了金融全球化与转轨国家经济的联动效应，并在此基础上分析了金融全球化进程中转轨国家金融改革的路径选择，以及两种转轨路径下的绩效问题。     

东亚经济赶超过程中金融体系转型的理论阐释

本文以韩国为例,分析东亚经济赶超过程中金融体系的转型.文中运用一个经济模型解释经济赶超过程中韩国集中化银行体系的软预算约束与经济快速增长这一看起来似乎相互矛盾的情况,认为在信息技术革命迅速发展和外部经济环境深刻变化的条件下,集中化的金融体系已不再适应经济的发展,迫切需要向分散化的市场方向转变.     

Central Bank Independence in Transition Economies

The paper discusses recent changes in central bank laws and the relationship between inflation and central bank independence in transition economies. Two indices of legal independence are constructed, covering political and economic aspects of independence. Most of the countries experienced high-inflation episodes in the recent past and changes introduced to the laws after, or simultaneously, with stabilization programmes strengthened the position of the central banks. In further analysis, an inverse relationship emerges between inflation and indices of central bank independence. However, the robust relationship is present only at a high level of economic liberalization. This conclusion is supported by results from regressions on time-aggregated and panel data, even after controlling for the government fiscal position and the absence/presence of an IMF stabilization package.     

Law and Finance in Transition Economies

This paper offers the first comprehensive analysis of legal change in the protection of shareholder and creditor rights in transition economies and its impact on the propensity of firms to raise external finance. Following La Porta et al. (1998), the paper constructs an expanded set of legal indices to capture a range of potential conflicts between different stakeholders of the firm. It supplements the analysis of the law on the books with an analysis of the effectiveness of legal institutions. Our main finding is that the effectiveness of legal institutions has a much stronger impact on external finance than does the law on the books, despite legal change that has substantially improved shareholder and creditor rights. This finding supports the proposition that legal transplants and extensive legal reforms are not sufficient for the evolution of effective legal and market institutions.     

Environmental Financing in European Economies in Transition

The paper offers a perspective on environmental predicament of economies in transition. Emphasis is put on how these economies finance their environmental needs. It is observed that the demand for environmental financing can be affected both by environmental policy measures (such as internalization of externalities) and by other factors (such as the softness of budget constraints faced by firms). The role of subsidies – in many countries of the Central and Eastern European region provided through special purpose ‘environmental funds’ – is then scrutinized. In particular the question is asked whether such funds crowd out commercial capital from the market. Conditions are discussed that would allow the funds to play their constructive environmental roles without crowding out private financing.     

Liquidity Constraints and Investment in Transition Economies

We use Bulgarian firm-level data to investigate the impact of liquidity constraints on investment performance. Internal funds are an important determinant of investment in most industrialized countries. We test whether internal funds are important for firm investment during the current transition process in Bulgaria. We use a simple accelerator model of investment to test whether liquidity constraints are relevant in the case of Bulgaria. Our estimations are based on data for the period 1993–95, prior to the Bulgarian financial crisis in 1996–97. It turns out that Bulgarian firms are liquidity constrained, and that firms' size and financial structure help to distinguish between firms that are more and less liquidity constrained. In our view, liquidity constraints can be given a different interpretation in the case of transition economies as compared to Western economies. A more in depth analysis of the data reveals that liquidity constraints, and consequently the access to external funds for Bulgarian firm investment, are to be seen against the background of soft-budget constraints and the failure of the financial system to enforce an efficient allocation of funds. In our view, the lack of liquidity constraints may actually be seen as a sign of financial weakness in the case of Bulgaria.     

Impediments to Exports in Small Transition Economies

MOCT-MOST: Economic Policy in Transitional Economies -     

计划经济国家转轨异同及其绩效

东欧、俄罗斯、中国等原计划经济国家的体制转轨,备受理论界的关注。转轨实践的共同性与区别,转轨的绩效等问题,是中外学者讨论的热点,问世的成果不少,但争议很大。这说明．对转轨经济的研究既重要,又复杂。本文首先在分析计划经济国家体制转轨起点的同步性和方向的一致性的同时,重点探讨政治选择尤其道路选择的重大差异,并着力透过外在的表现形式揭示差异的基本内涵及其主要的制约因素。在此基础上,本文运用制度生成和现实产出这软硬两类指标,既从静态又从动态的视角,努力对东欧、俄罗斯以及中国的转轨绩效作出符合实际的科学判断。     

Teacher and Student Economic Understanding in Transition Economies

This study describes a new data set and uses it for an exploratory investigation of whether seminars for teachers conducted by the National Council on Economic Education through its International Education Exchange Program (IEEP) had a beneficial effect on the economic understanding of the high school students of these teachers. The data were collected using a non-equivalent control group design that sorted teachers into two groups based on whether or not they participated in an IEEP seminar. Pre- and posttests of economics were administered to the students of these teachers in Lithuania, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, and Poland. The exploratory results showed a larger increase in the economic understanding of students of teachers who participated in the IEEP seminars compared with students of teachers who did not. The results also showed that knowledge of economics among IEEP teachers was a factor for improving student achievement in economics. The findings should be viewed with caution because of data limitations.     

Market Reform and Infrastructure Development in Transition Economies

This paper analyzes the determinants of investments in physical infrastructure over the first decade of market reform in Central and Eastern Europe and other former Soviet economies. Both market and political reform would be expected to have an impact on the level of infrastructure, but the relationship will likely differ for infrastructure which remains dependent on the public sector and that which becomes more dependent on private investment after such reforms. Results for a large cross section of transition economies show that market reform has had a positive impact on both traditional and newer types of infrastructure, with a stronger impact on the newer types which are more likely to be market‐derived. The findings also suggest that market reform is more likely to push investors to develop infrastructure when political and market reforms are accomplished in tandem.     

企业家在转型经济中的中心作用

本文对转型经济企业家才能类型进行了概括，市场因素以各自不同的速度在各自经济转型国家内自发地产生影响。当企业组织的经济活动变得越来越复杂，就必须有正式的社会公共机构对它们提供支持。有些国家通过建立支持市场运行的基础结构来培育企业家才能，有些国家则不然。本文将讨论这样一个观点：企业家才能发挥的情况在很大程度上可以推断一个国家经济转型的成功与否。     

Consensus among Economics Teachers from Transition Economies

The authors analyze the economic opinions of teachers and economists from the former Soviet Union who participated in economic education programs sponsored by the U.S. Department of Education under the auspices of the National Council on Economic Education from 1995–2001. They sought to determine the level of consensus on economic topics among the participants, and then analyzed their concordance with U.S. economists. They conclude that there is a significant level of consensus among the participants from the former Soviet Union, but this consensus is often at odds with the views of American economists.     

Bankruptcy as a Control Device in Economies in Transition

We examine in this paper the design of a liquidation, or bankruptcy, policy in a partially centralized economy characterized by imperfect information. We employ a two-period model to analyze the effects of an optimal liquidation rule on the efficiency of resource allocation and choice of managerial effort when managers have private information about effort and firm productivity. First-period investment is used by the regulator to discipline the manager and to extract information. The tradeoff between disciplinary effect and information extraction might be best solved by implementing inefficient liquidation policies. Inefficiencies in liquidation policies can occur even if the regulator believes that he is facing a given type of firm with probability close to one. J. Comp. Econom., June 1995, 20(3), pp. 265-301. Cornell University, Ithaca, New York 14853-7601.     

Inflation in the Transition Economies: the post-Keynesian view

The notion that hostile takeovers must play a key role in corporate governance, by bringing purportedly efficient financial market pressures to bear on poorly performing managers, often underlies proposals for financial sector reform. This paper tests the most influential explanation of takeovers, the free cash flow theory of debt-financed restructuring, against a comprehensive sample of large U.S. hostile takeovers from the years 1978‐89. The tests provide little support for the free cash flow hypothesis: that over-retention of corporate resources, relative to investment opportunities, would distinguish targets from other companies. Firms with less debt are more likely to have been taken over. But this and closely related evidence is more consistent with the idea that the takeover and credit markets underwent a period of speculative overheating. Thus the role played by hostile takeovers in the corporate restructuring of the 1980s does not suggest that facilitating such activity should be a goal of present day financial reforms, in Europe or elsewhere     

转型时期的制度变迁和经济发展

本文通过对转型国家的横向比较分析,认为转型国家的制度变革与经济发展具有直接的正相关性。转型国家经济的增长和社会的发展,最重要的因素包括三个方面：即宏观经济稳定、稳定的政策环境、有效的政府,但更为重要的是持续发展则取决于制度的变革和创新。所以转型国家应重视制度的建设和完善。     

Financial Flows to Transitional Economies in an Integrated Europe

MOCT-MOST: Economic Policy in Transitional Economies -     

Inter-Regional Migration in Transition Economies: The Case of Poland

In this paper, we modify the Harris–Todaro model of migration to incorporate the impact of human capital, housing stock, and the availability of publicly provided goods such as healthcare and road provision in order to analyze the determinants of migration in different regions of Poland. We apply the Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equation (SURE) model to investigate the data. Our results show that GDP per capita, unemployment, and distance have a strong effect on regional migration in Poland. Human capital is also an important explanatory factor as is the provision of key publicly provided facilities such as roads. The lack of housing in Poland is important in explaining the low levels of internal migration.