浅论经济犯罪刑罚

本文首先从经济犯罪的概念出发,进而引出经济犯罪的特点、经济犯罪的刑罚体系、种类,指出我国现行的经济犯罪刑罚政策、刑罚体系及其不足,并就我国的经济犯罪刑罚体系的完善提出了一些建议,以此希望对我国的经济犯罪的立法有所裨益。     

浅析与和谐社会相适应的刑事司法政策

党的十七大报告指出：“社会和谐是中国特色社会主义的本质属性……构建社会主义和谐社会是贯穿于中国特色社会主义事业全过程的长期历史任务”。我国的刑事政策必须切实紧紧围绕这一主题,服务于和谐、致力于和谐,才能完成保障和促进社会主义建设的历史使命。社会决定刑事政策．建设社会主义和谐社会就必须实行与其相适应的刑事司法政策。     

浅谈如何完善宽严相济刑事司法政策

根据我国刑事诉讼法的规定。不起诉是检察机关依其职权,对公安机关或者自侦部门移送起诉的刑事案件审查后．确认存在法定情形依法应当不追究刑事责任。或者犯罪情节轻微,依照刑法规定不需要判处刑罚或者免除刑罚,或者经过补充侦查仍然证据不足,不符合起诉条件的．依法作出的不将行为人交付审判机关进行审判而终止诉讼程序的处分决定。     

当代刑事政策视野中的犯罪被害预防

当前,世界各国犯罪预防的一个明显转变就是从被动的预防犯罪到主动的预防犯罪;从法律制止到物质制止从立足于行为人预防转向被害人预防。犯罪被害人学研究表明,要真正实现减少社会的犯罪,仅仅从犯罪人和潜在犯罪人这一角度考虑是不够的。而这一理论和实践结果与当代刑事政策的理念也是相符的。当代刑事政策正是强调了预防性措施,也把市民社会融入其主体之中,这更加巩固了犯罪被害预防的地位。     

宽严相济刑事司法政策在审查批捕中的应用

宽严相济作为我们党和国家的一项重要的刑事司法政策,是在构建和谐社会的背景下确立的、我国当前及今后相当长的一个时期内应当坚持的刑事司法政策．也是检察工作的基础原则之一。而在审查批捕过程中,正确理解、合理运用宽严相济的刑事司法政策。把惩罚与教育的刑法目的贯彻到司法实践中。实现惩治犯罪和保障人权的有机统一,可能推动司法文明．增进社会和谐。     

如何落实宽严相济的刑事政策

最高人民检察院关于在检察工作中《贯彻宽严相济刑事司法政策的若干意见》为公诉部门如何贯彻宽严相济刑事政策指明了方向，并提出了全面把握，区别对待，严格执法和注重效果四项原则。为此，本人结合工作实际，拟就在审查起诉中落实宽严相济刑事政策谈点个人粗浅的看法：     

在检察业务工作中贯彻宽严相济刑事政策的理论分析

一、当前贯彻宽严相济刑事司法政策存在的问题 宽严相济的刑事司法政策虽然为我们人性化的执法办案提供了强大理论基础，但这一刑事政策在实际检察业务工作操作上很难把握，存在着与贯彻“宽严相济”的刑事政策相违背的诸多问题。     

检察工作中贯彻宽严相济刑事政策的情况和具体措施及问题

“宽严相济”的刑事政策是刑事法对构建和谐社会这一政治目标的回应．它的确立表明了我国刑事政策在新的历史条件下继续发展和完善”。作为刑事政策的践行者之一,我院在司法实践中．积极探索新时期各项检察工作如何正确运用“宽严相济”刑事政策的新途径、新方法、新措施,在有效维护社会治安的同时．创新工作思路,夯实工作基础,化解社会矛盾,保持社会安定,建设过硬队伍,最大限度地深入推进平安法治创建活动,推动平安和谐迈人新境界．以实际的办案效果展现和谐社会中的司法理念。     

对宽严相济刑事政策的科学理解和实践把握

宽严相济刑事司法政策是我国历史承传的防治犯罪、促进社会稳定的思想结晶。是新中国长期司法实践经验教训的产物。它是我国优化的系统性、可操控的刑事司法政策。     

经济犯罪的经济根源及相应预防

伴随着我国现代化进程的不断加速,各种经济犯罪案件也出现不断增多现象。经济犯罪产生的原因不仅多样,而且其侵害的法益更具复合性。因此,对经济犯罪的预防不仅需要法律规制,更需要多种社会调控手段综合作用,尤其是经济手段的有效介入。本文对经济犯罪产生的经济根源进行了剖析,指出了综合预防经济犯罪前提下经济手段介入的必要性,提出了对经济犯罪进行有效预防的策略。     

Jan Tinbergen's statistical contribution to economic policy

In this article I claim that the Nobel Prize in Economics has not only set the economics discipline on a path‐dependent trajectory, but is itself an apotheosis of a development of what I would like to refer to as ‘the statistical turn in economics’. The case of Jan Tinbergen illustrates the argument and sketches the stages within the statistical turn in economics. The Nobel Prize in 1969 acknowledged this character of economics, and justified the continuation of this approach for the generation to come.     

Econom(etr)ics of crime and litigation

Economists approach the behaviour of potential criminals, litigants and law enforcement agencies in terms of rational choice: the actors choose the best alternatives in terms of costs and benefits within the choices open to them. The prime focus of economists is on the general factors in society affecting the crime and litigation level and on the interaction between the crime and litigation level and the legal system. In doing so they have to study the interaction between the micro level of individual decision making and the macro level of the law enforcement system reacting on these decisions. Data are often only available at aggregate (macro) level. Econometric studies at the macro level, especially time series, have the problem that many effects have to be estimated from a limited number of data. Various types of studies and some empirical results regarding crime, litigation and the workload of judicial services are discussed.     

Belgian economic policy uncertainty index: Improvement through text mining

Recently, the literature has measured economic policy uncertainty using news references, resulting in the frequently-mentioned ‘Economic Policy Uncertainty index’ (EPU). In the original setup, a news article is assumed to address policy uncertainty if it contains certain predefined keywords. We argue that the original setup is prone to measurement error, and propose an alternative methodology using text mining techniques. We compare the original method to modality annotation and support vector machines (SVM) classification in order to create an EPU index for Belgium. Validation on an out-of-sample test set speaks in favour of using an SVM classification model for constructing a news-based policy uncertainty indicator. The indicators are then used to forecast 10 macroeconomic and financial variables. The original method of measuring EPU does not have predictive power for any of these 10 variables. The SVM indicator has a higher predictive power and, notably, changes in the level of policy uncertainty during tumultuous periods of high uncertainty and risk can predict changes in the sovereign bond yield and spread, the credit default swap spread, and consumer confidence.     

Methodology of economic history as an approach to assessing monetary policy

Contribution to the panel session at the Hoover Institution conference on “Frameworks for Monetary Policy for the Next Century,” May 30, 2014.     

当前经济环境下物流服务创新与政策对策

文中首先提及当前经济发展环境对物流业产生的影响,提出只有创新求变才能转危机为机遇。     

Sensitivity of US equity returns to economic policy uncertainty and investor sentiments

This paper examines the sensitivity of major US sectoral returns to economic policy uncertainty and investor sentiments. Our analysis is based on weekly frequency and ranges from January 1995 to December 2015 covering a span of 20 years. Considering existing, however limited evidence of non-linear structure exhibited by investor sentiments and economic policy uncertainty and on the basis of our non-linear diagnostics, we use novel technique of non-parametric causality in quantiles approach proposed by Balcilar, Gupta, and Pierdzioch (2016). Our results highlight that economic policy uncertainty and investor sentiments act as driving factors for US sectoral returns. The nature of relationship is reported as asymmetrical for stock returns and symmetrical for variance of returns with an exception of Healthcare sector for economic policy uncertainty and bullish market sentiments. Our study carries implications for portfolio diversification and policy makers for forecasting market efficiency and economic trends.     

论知识产权的刑事司法保护——兼论北部湾经济区的开放开发

提高北部湾经济区的自主创新能力,加快科技成果引进消化吸收再创新,必须以知识产权得到充分保护为前提。刑法通过剥夺或限制犯罪人权利来保护知识产权,是知识产权保护的最后防线。加强合作,严格执法,确保知识产权保护功能得到充分发挥,对于激发经济区的创新精神和创造激情,提高竞争力具有重要的理论和现实意义。     

On economic uncertainty,stock market predictability and nonlinear spillover effects

This paper uses a k-th order nonparametric Granger causality test to analyze whether firm-level, economic policy and macroeconomic uncertainty indicators predict movements in real stock returns and their volatility. Linear Granger causality tests show that whilst economic policy and macroeconomic uncertainty indices can predict stock returns, firm-level uncertainty measures possess no predictability. However, given the existence of structural breaks and inherent nonlinearities in the series, we employ a nonparametric causality methodology, as linear modeling leads to misspecifications thus the results cannot be considered reliable. The nonparametric test reveals that in fact no predictability can be observed for the various measures of uncertainty i.e., firm-level, macroeconomic and economic policy uncertainty, vis-à-vis real stock returns. In turn, a profound causal predictability is demonstrated for the volatility series, with the exception of firm-level uncertainty. Overall our results not only emphasize the role of economic and firm-level uncertainty measures in predicting the volatility of stock returns, but also presage against using linear models which are likely to suffer from misspecification in the presence of parameter instability and nonlinear spillover effects.     

淮海经济区的城市经济联系格局分析

运用重力模型和综合客运模型,对淮海经济区城市间的经济联系势能及经济联系流强度进行测度,据此分析该区的城市经济辐射与经济隶属情况.结果表明,淮海经济区城市间的经济联系势能结构表现为以徐州、商丘、临沂、淮安为重要节点呈放射状分布.经济联系流强度的空间分异格局以徐州为中枢,形成徐州、济宁、临沂、阜阳、蚌埠五大网络结点,构成"开"字型架构.经济联系势能和经济联系流强度在徐州与周边城市的联系上表现出明显的一致性.最终将淮海经济区划分为核心、汴商、莱泰、临照、盐淮5个城市经济区.     

The transmission of US economic policy uncertainty shocks to Asian and global financial markets

This paper proposes a novel approach to investigating the spillover effects of US economic policy uncertainty shocks on the global financial markets. Employing a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR), we model US economic policy uncertainty jointly with the latent factors extracted from equity prices, exchange rates, and commodity prices. We find that US economic policy uncertainty affects these factors significantly. A country-level analysis shows heterogeneous responses to an increase in US economic policy uncertainty. With regard to equities, US economic policy uncertainty adversely affects equity prices. However, its impact on the Chinese equity market is relatively small. As for foreign exchange markets, while many currencies depreciate in response to an increase in US economic policy uncertainty, the US dollar and the Japanese yen appreciate, reflecting their safe-haven status. The Chinese yuan, whose nominal exchange rate is closely linked to the US dollar, also appreciates in response to uncertainty shocks.