The relationship between the valuation effect of equity financing and firm-specific characteristics

The findings of this study indicate that although the overall announcement effect of equity offerings is negative on the issuing firms' common stock prices, 23 percent of the sample firms have a positive two-day announcement period stock abnormal return (CAR). Further tests show that firms in the positive CAR group have significantly higher research and development (R&D) and profitability than firms in the negative CAR group, while the average leverage ratio of firms in the positive CAR group are significantly lower. Results of the regression analysis suggest a positive relation between the price effect and R&D as well as the profitability ratio. It also is found that only in the sample of large R&D firms is the magnitude of R&D significantly associated with the magnitude of announcement effect.     

THE CURRENT ACCOUNT

In the first half of this year the current account deficit widened sharply to £5.6bn, well above the Chancellor's full-year Budget forecast of £4bn and our own most recent forecast of £5bn. In this Forecast Release, we show that imports have continued to grow very rapidly but export growth has slowed down. This is in contrast to 1987 when exports were strong, very nearly keeping pace with imports. It can be said therefore that this year's balance of payments deterioration owes more to a failure of exports than to rising imports. As to why this has happened, we show that part of the explanation is a two-year decline in UK competitiveness but that the more important cause is the continuing strength of domestic demand which has not only sucked in imports but also diverted possible exports to the home market .     

The issuer effect on default risk insured municipal bond yields

In this study, an interesting aspect of the secondary market's pricing of the riskiness of insured municipal bonds is examined. Do secondary market investors still consider the underlying intrinsic credit quality of the issuer in pricing insured bonds? Is the pricing of this “issuer effect” treated equally for both revenue and general obligation bonds? We find that, while the market does not differentiate between equally insured revenue and general obligation bonds, the intrinsic credit quality of the issuer is reflected in the bond issue's quality spread. The results suggest that investors are concerned with the default risk protection of insured municipal bonds regardless of whether they are revenue or general obligation bonds. The market does not perceive insurers to be perfect substitutes for issuers in a risk transfer. Further, the results suggest there is justification for obtaining an agency rating according to issuer credit quality even for insured bonds.     

我国玩具对美出口面临的技术性贸易壁垒及对策分析

中国玩具出口占美国玩具市场的80%。美国多种形式的技术性贸易壁垒严重影响了我国玩具出口。本文通过对我玩具出口美国现状、美国玩具市场的特点以及美国所采取的新的技术性贸易壁垒阐述,分析了对我国玩具出口产生的影响,并提出相应的对策建议。     

山东省农产品出口情况分析及展望

综合分析了山东省农产品出口的产品结构、地区结构、市场结构及竞争力。研究发现,山东省农产品产品结构和市场结构进一步优化,地区结构不均衡,山东省农产品出口具有较强的竞争力;但是总体上竞争力具有下降的态势。最后,从全球金融危机和贸易壁垒方面,分析了山东省农产品出口面临的国际形势;并在前面分析的基础上,提出了对山东省农产品出口的前景展望。     

Structural shifts in the manufacturing export performance of oecd economies

This paper identifies structural shifts in manufacturing export performance of the major OECD economies. The particular emphasis of this study is to see whether the longer-run responses of a country's exports to the growth in world demand have undergone trend changes. The econometric work focuses on the time variation in income elasticities from an export demand model over the period 1963–89. It thus covers a period in which there was a substantial slow-down in world economic growth and in which the manufacturing sectors in advanced economies underwent substantial restructuring in the wake of the two oil-price shocks and the competitive challenges of Japan and the NICs. The exercise attempted to evaluate the relative successes and failures of the different OECD economies to maintain or improve their positions in the ‘higher quality’ (income elastic) segments of world trade. Evidence was found for trend improvements in the income elasticity for UK exports from the early 1980s onwards and a trend decline for that of the US over the same period. The effects of non-tariff protection against Japanese exports also showed up in our results and an attempt was made to separately identify its effects.     

北美汽车出口认证体系解析

2012年我国汽车出口总量已突破百万辆大关,同比增长达29.7%,但出口主要集中在东南亚、非洲及中东等低端市场。目前,企业出口北美的认证项目还未提上日程,为了避免汽车制造商今后出口北美遭遇认证周期拉长、认证试验费高昂的问题,本文就美国、加拿大、墨西哥三个北美国家汽车认证的体系、流程、项目进行了梳理和分析,为汽车及零部件企业产品顺利通过认证,出口北美提供参考。     

New competition and technical change in the computer industry

This paper briefly describes and analyses the competitive strength of the Japanese electronics industry, based on the author's studies of the leading firms in the television and semiconductor industries world wide [1] and notes some of the implications for the computer industry.There are some important similarities among these industries: in particular the crucial role which technology and innovation have played through their implications both for international competitiveness and for the users and consumers of the products of these industries.Although it is not suggested that the computer industry will evolve along exactly the same lines as these other two electronics industries, there are some very useful lessons that may be drawn for the computer industry from the experience of competition in these other sectors.The paper begins by giving some indicators or “measures” of the competitive performance and strength of the Japanese firms. It also explains some of the reasons why they have achieved this performance. Finally, it describes and analyses the pattern of expansion of these industries from domestic market to exports and finally to direct investment in the U.S. and Western Europe, to indicate likely patterns for competition in the computer industry.     

Pricing-to-market in U.S. imports and exports: A time series and cross-sessional study

This paper provides a comparative study of how U.S. imports and exports prices react to exchange rate changes. It finds, through time series analyses, that while both U.S. and foreign exporters price to market, foreign exporters in general absorb a large portion of exchange rate changes by themselves while U.S. exporters pass through most of the exchange rate change to foreign currency prices. Pricing behavior of U.S. imports and, to a lesser extent, of U.S. exports varies across industries and such variation relates to industry characteristics such as market shares, product d differentiation, and capital-to-labor ratio.     

中国出口增长的二元边际分解与区域差异

本文利用2000至2006年间的海关数据,从企业出口的扩展和集约边际二元视角来对中国出口增长的动力进行分解与测算。结果发现：首先,中国的出口增长主要是依靠企业出口的集约边际扩张所贡献,而扩展边际对出口增长的贡献相对较弱。加入WTO对中国出口增长的促进效应主要是通过集约边际来实现,而扩展边际的作用有限且呈现短暂性;其次,集约边际中存活率和深化率的差异是造成我国地区间出口增长差异的重要因素,越是经济发达的沿海地区越是依靠集约边际中存活率和深化率来推动出口增长。中国出口关系的持续时间非常短,平均为1.9年,且越是欠发达地区的出口关系的持续时间越是短暂;最后,通过“反事实”法测算了我国不同区域的出口增长潜力,得出提升企业出口关系的存活率和深化率是促进欠发达地区出口增长主要途径的结论。     

Liquidity constrained exporters

I propose a model of international trade with liquidity constraints. If firms must pay a fixed entry cost in order to access foreign markets, and if they face liquidity constraints to finance these costs, only those firms that have sufficient liquidity are able to export. A set of firms could profitably export, but are prevented from doing so because they lack sufficient liquidity. More productive firms that generate large liquidity from their domestic sales, and wealthier firms that inherit a large amount of liquidity, are more likely to export. This model offers a potential explanation for the apparent lack of sensitivity of exports to exchange rate fluctuations. When the exchange rate appreciates, existing exporters lose competitiveness abroad, and are forced to reduce their exports. At the same time, the value of domestic assets owned by potential exporters increases. Some liquidity constrained exporters start exporting. This dampens the anti-competitiveness impact of a currency appreciation. Under some conditions, it may reverse it altogether and increase aggregate exports. In this sense, the model is able to rationalize the co-existence of competitive devaluations and competitive revaluations.     

对中国服务贸易国际竞争力的分析

本文从中国服务贸易出口额在世界上的排序及占有份额、中国服务贸易进出口行业结构及贸易竞争优势指数三个方面,对中国服务贸易的国际竞争力展开了深入的分析。在此基础上,讨论了波特的国家竞争优势理论对一国提升服务贸易国际竞争力有重要的借鉴意义,并提出了发展我国服务贸易国际竞争力的对策建议。     

提高建筑节能设计促进节能建材市场发展

受金融危机的影响,国内许多对外出口企业尤其是附加值很低的一些建材和家具生产企业纷纷陷入困境。一方面是外部需求的萎缩,传统出口市场对我国出口建材商品的需求减少;另一方面是人民币对美元升值后的效应开始显现,人民币升值改变了我国经济的发展结构,产业结构的调整和重新布局给经济带来动荡和不稳定因素。与此同时国内大量的出口型建材家居企业则将国内市场看做必争之地,因此也加剧了国内建材家居行业的市场竞争。     

The effect of exchange rate volatility on U.S. bilateral trade with Africa: A symmetric and asymmetric analysis

The impact of exchange rate volatility on U.S. trade with the world or on U.S. trade with major partners has been assessed by many researchers, but none have considered the case of U.S. trade with African nations. We fill this gap by assessing the symmetric and asymmetric impact of the real bilateral exchange rate volatility between the U.S. dollar and each African partner’s currency on the U.S. trade flows with each of the 20 partners from Africa. We found asymmetric short-run effects of exchange rate volatility on almost all U.S. exports to and imports from each of the 20 countries. In addition, significant long-run asymmetric effects were discovered in the case of U.S. exports to 15 countries and U.S. imports from 12 countries. Our findings are partner-specific.     

FASB 95, Cash Flow and bankruptcy

In this paper, the authors evaluate the effectiveness of Statement of Cash Flows measures in the classification and prediction of bankruptcy. The problems of biased estimators and bankruptcy probabilities and of optimal cut-off rates are addressed by using a large random sample and conditional marginal probability density functions. It is found that cashflow variables provide statistically better classification and prediction rates when used with traditional accounting variables when bankruptcy is defined as a Chapter 11 filing.     

Developing a decision rule to predict failure: The case of savings and loan associations

The relative costs of misclassifying institutions by their financial health is an issue that concerns researchers. In this paper, a model and decision rule are developed that improve the probability of identifying those Savings and Loans that are predicted not to fail, but are actually failing. For obvious reasons, stakeholders in those institutions are very much interested in avoiding this type I error. The study also makes available evidence that the examination of Z-scores can be useful in identifying other financial institutions that may experience financial failure.     

Financial analyst coverage for U.S. firms facing foreign competition: Evidence from trade liberalization

This study examines financial analyst coverage for U.S. firms following an increase in foreign product market competition. To capture exogenous shocks to domestic firms' competitive environments, we exploit a quasi‐natural experiment from large import tariff reductions over the 1984 to 2005 period in the manufacturing sector. Using data for the years before and after large tariff reductions, our difference‐in‐differences analysis shows evidence of a significant decrease in analyst coverage for incumbent U.S. firms when they face greater entry threat from foreign competitors. We also find that analysts with less firm‐specific experience and less accurate prior‐period forecasts are more likely to stop following the domestic firm when foreign competition intensifies. Overall, the findings suggest that foreign product market competition from global trade liberalization is an important determinant of financial analysts' coverage decisions.     

The exchange rate and machinery and equipment imports: Identifying the impact of import source and export destination country currency valuation changes

This paper presents estimates of the impact of exchange rate movements on the quantity of machinery and equipment imports. Many countries have become increasingly reliant on imports of these types of products and evidence in a number of studies indicates that investment in machinery and equipment contributes to improved productivity and growth. Unlike previous studies, this study differentiates between exchange rate movements with respect to machinery and equipment import source and final good export destination countries. Data are employed for two machinery and equipment importing countries, Australia and Canada, and two exporting countries, Japan and the U.S. The results indicate that a currency depreciation with respect to an import source country has a significant negative effect on the quantity of machinery and equipment imports, while a depreciation with respect to a domestic final good export destination country has a significant positive effect. These findings imply that the net impact on the quantity of machinery and equipment imports of an exchange rate change with respect to a particular country will depend on the extent to which that country is a supplier of machinery and equipment imports and a market for domestic exports.     

The consequences of a policy of necessity: Bank regulatory forbearance, 1986–1989

While it is widely recognized that bank regulators choose the policy of forbearance because of an undercapitalized bank insurance fund, a key policy question centers on what were the effects of forbearance. This study uses a survival model to track capital deficient banks from December 1986 to December 1989, a period in which regulators explicitly used forbearance in managing troubled banks. Despite the contention that forbearance returns banks to safe-and-sound practices, this study concludes that forbearance did not enable troubled banks to return to viability. Furthermore, the evidence from the survival analysis provides negligible support, if any, for the interrelationship between forbearance and too-big-to-fail doctrine.     

Will Brexit speed a seismic shift in UK trade patterns?

• The UK's trade pattern has shifted significantly away from the EU since the 1990s. Our analysis suggests that this shift will continue in the decades to come, with the EU share in UK goods exports potentially slipping to around 35% by 2035. Shifts in relative prices from moves in tariff and especially non‐tariff barriers could lower the share further.
• Over 60% of UK goods exports went to the EU in the late 1990s but this has fallen to around 45%. Slow EU growth is partly to blame, with UK exports to the EU barely expanding since 2007. But our analysis also shows that a 1% rise in EU GDP leads to only around half the rise in UK exports to the EU that a 1% rise in GDP in the rest of the world induces in UK exports to non‐EU countries.
• Based on our findings and OE forecasts of long‐term growth in the EU and the world, the EU share of UK goods exports could fall to 37% by 2035 and around 30% by 2050 – back to its 1960 level. The share of services exports to the EU has held up better but is lower than for goods, at around 40%.
• Weakening growth of UK exports to the EU has taken place despite the development of the EU single market since the early 1990s. Indeed, based on our projections UK goods exports to the single market could drop below 5% of UK GDP by 2050. These projections make no allowance for Brexit effects, but the declining importance of exports to the EU single market could colour prospective Brexit negotiations.
• Simple income‐based projections of potential country shares in future UK exports suggest a further swing towards emerging countries (EM) in the decades ahead, especially China and India. Exports to EM could approach 40% of the total by 2035. A shift in the pattern of trade preferences and restrictions faced by the UK post‐Brexit could spark even larger shifts in the structure of UK exports.