中国的影子银行会成为另一个次债?

最近几年中国的影子银行或信托融资业务快速发展,反映了利率市场化的实际表现,不过这些业务的潜在风险也引发了对中国经济增长硬着陆的担忧。向公众销售理财产品的信托融资和由金融机构作为中介的委托贷款两种融资方式具有较大的潜在风险。尽管个别违约可能会引发广泛的赎回,但中国的信托融资尚不致形成"资产价格下跌—不断恶化的资产负债表—被迫抛售资产"之间的恶性循环。中国的影子银行也还不会导致系统性金融风险,但完善影子银行业务的监管已经成为一项紧迫的任务。     

THE PROMISE AND THE PERIL OF MICROFINANCE INSTITUTIONS IN INDONESIA

After the 1997 East Asian crisis, central banks throughout the region tried to reduce the risk of future bank failures by promulgating regulatory reforms. The results in Indonesia have been to concentrate rather than mitigate banking risks, and to decrease the access of low-income households and enterprises to formal financial services, especially in rural areas. The most severe casualties of the ‘reforms’ have been local government-owned micro finance institutions. In the provinces where these institutions have functioned best, they have addressed a market failure by extending coverage to areas not served by conventional financial institutions. Understanding the past performance and potential for replication of these success stories continues to be important because of the substantial gaps that remain in the access of rural Indonesian households and micro enterprises to fi nancial services.     

Should financial regulators engage in international policy coordination?

This paper examines issues associated with the design and implementcation of regulatory policymaking in interconnected financial markets. The paper explains why international interdependence among nations’ financial markets and regulations can provide an incentive for national financial supervisory agencies to contemplate coordinating their regulatory policies. It also assesses, in the context of a review of recent research on the part of banking and financial economists, ways in which interdependence among financial systems can create a potential for international regulatory policy conflicts. In addition, the paper evaluates whether such conflicts are insurmountable or might be somewhat mitigated at least somewhat via bargains among regulatory authorities.     

我国商业银行引进战略投资者策略探讨

随着中国政府逐步放开外资进入中国市场的限制,外资入股中资银行己成为国外金融机构进入中国的首选方式。中国金融管理层引资的愿望很好,但对于参股主体的行为识别一直是困绕管理层的大问题。笔者认为,引进战略投资者对我国银行业的改革意义重大,但是那些形似神非的战略投资者是潜藏着巨大的风险的。因此,找寻真正的、适合自身发展的战略投资者是管理层必须解决的重要问题。     

Banking in the Shadows: A Comparative Study of China and India

In recent years there has been increasing interest in the rise of shadow banking in China and India. In this paper, we aim to get a better understanding of the differences in trends and investigate the factors leading to the increase of shadow banking in these two major emerging economies. We find that financial exclusion is a common factor leading to the growth of shadow banking in both countries. While financial reform has taken place in India, financially repressive policies still prevail in China. Although several regulatory measures have been adopted in India and China, the size of the shadow banking sector in these two countries remains underestimated. Thus, streamlining and enhancing data collection is a key priority for both nations. We argue that regulation in both countries should be more activity focused (specific field in which a shadow bank is focused on) rather than sector or entity based, and it should be at par with banks. The shadow banks provide last mile connectivity to remote, distant, and ignored segments of the population not serviced by the formal financial sector. As this enhances financial inclusion, a balanced approach is required keeping in view both costs and benefits of the shadow banking system.     

SMEs,borrowing constraints and banking relationships in Japan

At the dawn of the introduction of a new set of regulatory reforms in Japan’s financial services industry, reactions are mixed about the consequences for operators and users of financial services when they come into effect from the new fiscal year. One that is evident is the credit constraint experienced by firms, especially SMEs. The effect as this study finds is such that the advantage usually conferred by long-standing banking relationship and main bank ties upon firms to favored access to bank credits is no longer guaranteed. Indeed, availability, not cost of credit has become of greater concern to SMEs irrespective of industry. In the face of the prevailing credit situation, however, greater awareness has been gained by firms that continuity of relationship with their banks may pay off later. Since the present crisis is due partly to the unintended consequences of previous reforms, appropriate and timely steps should be taken to ensure that SMEs, the weaker link in the industrial chain, are not overly marginalized by any future fall-outs of the new reforms.     

The evolution of commercial banking and financial markets in Taiwan

Over the past five decades, Taiwan has achieved rapid economic development. Correspondingly, Taiwan’s financial system has been gradually transformed from a controlled system into a liberalized one, from a state banking system into a private banking one, and from an inward investment system into an outward investment one. In the financial market, the interest rate and foreign exchange rate have always been completely determined by market forces. As for capital movements, there are no controls on trade-related capital transactions. Only inward investment in stock markets is still subject to a ceiling imposed by the Central Bank. Financial institutions are gradually being liberalized, although the process is rather slow. Many private banks have been established since 1991, creating a competitive situation in the banking sector. Since the financial crisis broke out in East Asia, Taiwan has suffered less from its impact because its economic fundamentals are comparatively sound. However, it will still take a considerable amount of time before Taiwan’s financial system is fully liberalized.     

“人人贷”的法律监管分析——兼谈中国的影子银行问题

P2P网络贷款是影子银行体系的一个组成部分,它是依托互联网而产生的一种新的融资形式.同其他影子银行类型一样,对它的研究和监管都基本处于空白状态,P2P贷款的发展也面临着诸多争议.文章在借鉴美国监管经验的基础上,从金融脱媒以及个人贷款的角度对其进行了研究,指出影子银行体系的发展暴露了我国金融监管体制中存在的市场的割裂和不完备.并认为应当反思我国金融理论,通过立法的方式制定系统、综合的金融体系现代化方案.     

The impact of banking services on poverty: Evidence from sub-district level for Bangladesh

The extent to which banking services can reduce poverty is under question as recent experimental evidence has suggested that there is no impact. Our findings, based on survey and administrative data, are to the contrary. We compile a unique dataset of banking measures and poverty indicators at the level of Bangladesh’s 544 administrative sub-districts. We find a relationship between banking services and poverty reduction, and show that the relationship works through the deposit channel rather than the credit channel. We exploit variation in branch placement by sub-district between 2010 and 2015 to implement a difference-in-difference estimation approach. We also estimate ordinary least squares and fixed effects models to explore the role of factors other than banking services in poverty incidence. Broad findings supporting a role for the deposit channel, but not the credit channel, are confirmed. These results have significant policy implications as governments in developing countries are actively involved in promoting financial inclusion through the banking sector.     

中东欧国家金融银行业开放过程中的潜在风险分析

20世纪90年代以来,中东欧国家先后实施了金融银行业对外开放政策。金融开放为中东欧国家金融银行业注入了活力,但同时也蕴含着很多问题和潜在风险,在全球金融危机的冲击下,这些问题和潜在风险已影响到这些国家的金融市场和银行体系的稳定。本文着重从过高的外币融资、过快增长的家庭信贷、过度依赖的间接融资,以及外资银行大量进入挤占内资银行市场份额等4个方面分析这些国家金融银行业潜在风险的形成过程。     

Dawn of Industrialisation? The Indonesian Automotive Industry

This article traces the development of industrial policy towards the Indonesian motor industry within the automotive global value chain. Showing the current dominance of Japanese motor assemblers in Indonesia, it notes the rather undeveloped nature of the locally owned supporting industry, particularly compared with that of neighbouring Thailand. Most investment in auto-parts production has been by foreigners. Nevertheless, Indonesia's rapid domestic-market growth has allowed it to attract foreign automotive investment without having to offer excessively generous incentives. While the continued entry of foreign suppliers of auto parts into Indonesia offers opportunities for local suppliers to upgrade their productive capabilities, it also limits their chances of becoming first-tier suppliers themselves. Japanese automotive investors are optimistic about Indonesia's export potential, more so than Malaysia's.     

The main determinants of banking crises in OECD countries

Banks’ stability can be affected by economic fluctuations, banks’ risk-taking behavior, connections among banks and countries’ financial system structure. At the same time, banking regulation and supervision were designed to protect banks from failure, but a large number of banking crises were not prevented recently. Using binary response models for panel data and focusing on OECD countries, this paper studies the main determinants of banking crises over a period of 21 years. Results suggest a bank’s high debt and a country’s low GDP growth rate as the major determinants of banking crises. There is also evidence of contagion across countries from the same geographical region and from G7 to other countries, and that bank-based financial systems are less prone to borderline banking crises. Regulatory and supervision practices are found not to have been relevant in bankruptcy prevention.     

瑞士金融监管改革分析

20世纪90年代,瑞士金融的一种趋势就是发生在银行业和保险业之间的业务彼此渗透,实现银行保险业务联合,同时为了克服现有银证统一的分业监管体系的缺陷,瑞士在1998年开始对其金融监管进行全面改革。这次改革统一了金融监管权力,但不仅仅是组织机构的简单重组,而是以提高监管体系的有效性、合理性和适用性为目标的对监管体系的实质性调整。正确认识和评价瑞士金融监管体制的改革,有利于推动我国金融监管体制的发展和完善。     

中国网络银行监管初探

依托信息技术和互联网的发展,网络银行成为一种新兴的金融服务。人们越来越意识到其快捷、便利、低成本的优势和广阔的发展前景。与西方发达国家相比,网络银行服务在我国金融行业的发展可谓刚刚起步,所提供的服务实质上是传统金融业务在网上的拓展和延伸。因此,我国网络银行的发展环境还不是很成熟和完善,在发展及监管的过程中存在不少的问题。本文在分析我国网络银行监管问题的基础上提出了六点措施和建议来保障我国网络银行的健康发展。     

Regional financial technology and shadow banking activities of non-financial firms: Evidence from China

Financial technology has greatly revolutionized the finance industry. However, the impact of financial technology on the shadow banking activities of non-financial firms has not been examined. Using a sample of Chinese listed firms from 2011 to 2018, we find that regional financial technology is positively associated with the shadow banking activities of non-financial firms, which is more pronounced for firms with low profitability and firms listed only in China’s A-share market. We show that financial technology can enhance the shadow banking activities by alleviating financing constraints. In addition, an increase in the equalization of profit rate and an increase in investment in the real economy reduce the positive effect of financial technology on the shadow banking activities. Further analysis suggests that financial regulations can attenuate excessive shadow banking activities of non-financial firms driven by financial technology.     

日本银行业资产负债管理的历史演进及启示

日本银行业的历史经验显示,资产负债管理应注重导入全面风险管理理念并构建、完善管理流程与组织体制;近年来,日本银行业在运用资产负债管理系统应对巴塞尔协议Ⅲ、国际财务报告准则时,重视数据积累与整备以及合理设计系统架构和管理方法。中国银行业当前正面临着利率市场化、金融国际化问题,与日本银行业在20世纪80年代所处背景非常相似,外部监管环境变化也与日本大致相同,因此,日本银行业资产负债管理的历史经验对中国银行业构建资产负债管理体系具有积极的参考意义。     

县级城市商业银行开展个人理财投资业务问题与对策

个人理财业务作为银行界的新兴业务具有十分广阔的市场前景,各家银行陆续推出不同的理财产品以吸引不同层次的投资者,在保证银行获利的同时为客户开发出潜在的财富,实现"互利双赢"的局面。面对收益增长带来的风险提高,本文围绕个人理财业务的品种、风险与利益、存在问题等方面,通过对浙江宁波余姚多家银行个人理财业务的调研,针对性地分析了当前在县级城市商业银行开展个人理财投资业存在的问题,并提出了完善个人理财业务的合理建议。     

银行业在中小企业融资服务领域的经验及启示——以成都市为例

本文立足银行信贷视角,结合全球金融危机以及成都市西部金融中心建设背景,分析成都市中小企业面临的金融环境;然后总结成都市银行业在中小企业融资服务领域的经验;最后,本文从政策性银行作用的发挥、信贷风险控制、金融机构市场定位、银行业发展战略等四方面提出了启示。     

Renminbi internationalisation: precedents and implications

Although it is commonly assumed that there are no precedents against which to benchmark Renminbi (RMB), this study argues that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) own development experience provides a useful perspective on the internationalisation debate. This study indicates that lessons can be learnt from both the successes and the shortcomings of efforts to internationalise the RMB in the 1970s. During this period, state-owned banks in Hong Kong played a central role in mobilising finance for foreign trade. Access to Hong Kong’s financial institutions allowed the PRC to maximise international trade receipts while minimising the risk of undue swings in capital flows. This study shows that although China no longer faces foreign exchange scarcity, economic reforms have not yet resolved vulnerabilities in China’s financial institutions. As a consequence, Hong Kong has retained its role in mitigating the risks of internationalisation and as a globalising force for China’s banking sector more generally.     

外资银行进入对东道国银行业效率的影响——东欧国家的经验与中国的实践

东欧国家银行改革的经验表明,外资银行进入能普遍提高东道国银行业的效率。但是,外资银行发挥积极作用亦取决于一定条件:东道国经济发展水平、银行业规模及发育程度、监管水平、银行业的改革路径和引资方式。本文在综述东欧国家银行业改革经验的基础上,提出中国银行业改革的7个命题,并用中国24家银行1999～2006年间的数据构建模型进行检验,最后得出结论:短期内外资银行进入会导致东道国银行业利润水平下降、风险管理水平上升,在中国的背景下可以认定这是外资银行积极作用的发挥;外资银行机构数量的增加和持股比重的上升都能刺激中国银行业效率的改进,但是外资银行持股比重的影响更具普遍性;不同类型银行对外资银行进入的反应存在差异,国有商业银行反应比较迟钝,而股份制和城市商业银行反应比较迅速。