Measurements and determinants of multifaceted poverty in South Africa

Poverty, despite being a multifaceted concept, is commonly measured in either absolute or relative monetary terms. However, it can also be measured subjectively, as people form perceptions on their relative income, welfare and life satisfaction. This is the first study that uses the National Income Dynamics Study data to analyse poverty across various objective and subjective methods. The paper finds that while respondents' poverty status varies across methods, blacks remain the racial group most likely to be defined as poor by at least one method. The multivariate analysis reveals that the impact of some explanatory variables, such as experience of negative events, frequency of crime victimisation, health status and importance of religious activities, is mixed across methods.     

Bribery in Indonesia: some evidence from micro-level data

This paper outlines and tests a model in which firms seek to reduce the cost of taxes and regulatory compliance by offering bribes to government officials. It finds that firms' profitability (scaled by production costs) largely determines both the amounts paid and the time spent negotiating bribes with officials. Competition between arms of the bureaucracy for bribe income seems to be a result of decentralisation, but the analysis suggests that this competition would lead to a spreading of bribes among a larger number of officials rather than to a significant increase in their total amount. Local governments may be able to raise more revenue by reducing the number of taxes and regulations and using part of the increased revenue to raise the salaries of officials, while devoting more effort to restraining corrupt behaviour. But progress may be blocked by central government tax officials increasing their demands for bribes.     

The “news view” of economic fluctuations: Evidence from aggregate Japanese data and sectoral US data

This paper uses aggregate Japanese data and sectoral US data to explore the properties of the joint behavior of stock prices and total factor productivity (TFP) with the aim of highlighting data patterns that are useful for evaluating business cycle theories. The approach used follows that presented in [Beaudry, P., Portier, F., 2004. News, stock prices and economic fluctuations. Working paper 10548. NBER]. The main findings are that (i) in both Japan and the US, innovations in stock prices that are contemporaneously orthogonal to TFP precede most of the long-run movements in total factor productivity and (ii) such stock prices innovations do not affect US sectoral TFPs contemporaneously, but do precede TFP increases in those sectors that are driving US TFP growth, namely durable goods, and among them equipment sectors. J. Japanese Int. Economies 19 (4) (2005) 635–652.     

The effects of input tariffs on productivity: panel data evidence for OECD countries

Based on a panel of 16 OECD countries and 10 manufacturing industries over 1996–2007, this paper investigates the impact of tariffs on foreign intermediate goods on productivity growth in downstream manufacturing industries. The results show that imposing tariffs on imported intermediate goods is particularly harmful for industries that operate close to the global technological frontier. We also consider the possibility that input-tariff liberalisation may have different effects depending on the technological content of imported intermediate goods. Our findings suggest that protecting imports of high-technological goods is more harmful for productivity improvements in industries that operate close to global best practice.     

Gender, poverty and deprivation: Evidence from the Republic of Guinea

The article examines the relationship between gender and consumption poverty and between gender and deprivation in the Republic of Guinea. National household survey data reveal that women are not more likely than men to be consumption poor or to suffer greater consumption poverty. Participatory Poverty Assessment data from the village of Kamatiguia reveal that women are “worse off” than men when deprivation includes, inter alia, excessive work load and reduced decision-making authority. When consumption poverty poorly correlates with other dimensions of deprivation, it should not be the sole guide for equity-based policy intervention.     

Too little too late: welfare impacts of rainfall shocks in rural Indonesia

We use regression analysis to assess the potential welfare impacts in rural Indonesia of two types of shock: a delay in monsoon onset; and a significant shortfall in rain during the 90-day post-onset period. Focusing on households with family farm businesses, we find that a delay in monsoon onset does not have a significant effect on the welfare of rice farmers. However, rice farm households located in areas exposed to low rainfall following the monsoon are negatively affected. Such households appear to be able to protect their food expenditure in the face of weather shocks, but at the expense of their non-food expenditure. We also use propensity score matching to identify community programs that might moderate the impact of this type of shock. We find that access to credit and public works projects has the strongest moderating effect. This is an important consideration for the design and implementation of adaptation strategies.     

The impact of tourism on poverty in South Africa

This paper evaluates the potential impact of tourism on poverty in South Africa on the basis of recent survey data on international tourism spending patterns. It looks at three scenarios, using an applied general equilibrium model. The main finding is that the poor benefit very little in the short term from additional tourism income. A further finding is that domestic and international tourist expenditure affect the economy differently; both markets are therefore important. In essence, the research confirms that tourism receipts can be used as a tool to alleviate poverty, but in South Africa this must be supported by policies that focus on the labour market and human resource development.     

The determinants of foreign direct investment in transforming economies: Empirical evidence from Hungary and China

The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Transforming Economies: Empirical Evidence from Hungary and China. — This paper analyzes what factors best explain foreign capital inflows into Hungary and China during the period 1978–92. The size of the host-country markets is found to play a positive role, while the cost-of-capital variables and political instability are negatively correlated with investment inflows. It supports the hypothesis that low-cost labour and currency depreciation is an important factor in explaining how much foreign capital flows into a particular country. There is little evidence to support classical hypotheses concerning tariff barriers and import variables. The OECD growth rates show significant positive correlation with FDI in Hungary.     

南欧3国社会救助制度反贫困脆弱性：经验分析和比较反思

对南欧的希腊、意大利和西班牙3国的最低收入计划的反贫困经验进行了讨论,从相对贫困率变化的角度看,南欧3国社会救助制度对于贫困减少仍存在脆弱性。同时,分析、对比了中国城市最低生活保障制度对于城市贫困减少的效果,结果表明,就相对贫困而言,贫困减少效果目前还较为有限。最后,就制度设计、政策支持和价值取向等方面提出了思考。     

The effect of foreign competition on UK employment and wages: Evidence from firm-level panel data

The Effect of Foreign Competition on UK Employment and Wages: Evidence from Firm-Level Panel Data. —This paper contributes to the sparse empirical literature on the effects of foreign competition on domestic employment and wages. The authors estimate a structural labour demand equation on UK firm-level panel data between 1982 and 1989 and several wage equations. When they restrict the sample to the manufacturing sector only, they find for the unionized firms that foreign competition has a negative effect on both wages and on employment. However, when UK manufacturing firms face only a few rivals, foreign competition has a positive effect on wages, but no effect on employment.     

The effects of the social norm on cigarette consumption: Evidence from Japan using panel data

Using Japan's prefecture-level panel data from 1989 to 2001, this paper examines the influence of the social norm on a person's smoking behavior when the complementary relationship between smoking and drinking is taken into account. The key findings through a dynamic panel model controlling for unobserved prefecture-specific fixed effects are as follows: (1) influence from others is stronger when people live more closely and cohesively. A tightly knit society results in a reduction of smoking through smoking-related interaction. (2) Smoking and drinking have a complementary relationship: greater initial consumption of alcohol results in larger consumption of cigarettes. (3) The complementary relationship between smoking and drinking is attenuated if the cost of committing the annoying conduct (i.e., smoking) is high.Overall, this empirical study provides evidence that the psychological effect of the presence of surrounding people has a direct significant effect upon smoking behavior and, furthermore, that it attenuates the complementary relationship between smoking and drinking, thereby reducing cigarette consumption. These results indicate that not only formal rules but also tacitly formed informal norms are effective deterrents to smoking.     

Foreign aid versus support to social entrepreneurs: Reviewing the way of fighting poverty in Zimbabwe

Despite the development interventions that have been adopted to help the countries caught in a downward spiral of impoverishment, their problems still persist. This paper focuses on the role that traditional foreign aid and the more recent bottom–up approach of supporting social entrepreneurs are playing to tackle the situation of extreme poverty in Zimbabwe. Drawing upon a narrative inquiry, 35 stories were collected to bring fresh insights regarding the realities of such interventions as they are experienced by the local people. The evidence shows the main shortcomings of the current development models and suggests that the improvement of a declining economy such as Zimbabwe would need the interaction of various factors, so that some interventions will appear significant only when the conditions of primary importance exist in the environment. Additionally, the engagement of local people seems to be a key aspect to the success of some of the support measures.     

Taxing Times in Indonesia: The Challenge of Restoring Competitiveness and the Search for Fiscal Space

Indonesia’s economic growth picked up slightly in mid-2016 but remains below the level demanded by government and popular aspirations. Despite a plethora of reforms intended to increase efficiency and productivity, some policies are perverse and longstanding problems of implementation remain. The share of manufacturing has declined, the real exchange rate has appreciated, exports have dwindled, and growth has been trending downwards. The banking sector is stable but inefficient, with wide net interest margins and numerous barriers to competition. Trade protection, particularly in basic food commodities, has created high costs that weigh particularly heavily on the poor. Declining government revenues have placed increasing pressure on the public budget, even as the current administration aims to increase spending on infrastructure and welfare and to enhance productivity. In an effort to increase revenues, the government has announced a tax amnesty program and other measures. In addition, Sri Mulyani Indrawati, the new finance minister, has taken steps to cut non-essential expenditure in order to secure high spending on infrastructure and at the same time keep within the 3% budget deficit limit stipulated by law. Although the overall debt situation is not yet alarming, declining revenues and budget cuts that do not fully reflect this decline are putting pressure on increasing debt levels. The government’s high-profile tax amnesty program was the major policy initiative implemented in the second half of 2016 that aimed to relieve this pressure. Despite widespread criticism of, and scepticism about, the tax amnesty (both within and outside Indonesia), its first phase had a much higher participation rate than most independent accounts expected. Revenues raised so far through the amnesty are less than 60% of the official target, but this is actually a strong result for the short term. The bigger question, however, is whether the amnesty is a key element of a more encompassing strategy to overhaul the system of taxation and tax administration.     

The sources of unemployment in Canada, 1967-91: evidence from a panel of regions and demographic groups

We analyze the determinants of Canadian unemployment in a frameworkincorporating demand and supply-side variables: the interestrate, taxation, foreign activity, minimum wages, union density,demographic pressure, unemployment insurance, terms of trade.The model is estimated with 500 observations for five Canadianregions and four demographic groups, 1967-91. We provide a comprehensivepicture of the macroeconomic and structural causes of unemploymentwith data combining the advantages of macroeconomic time seriesand microeconomic cross sections. The long-term rise in Canadianunemployment since 1960 is attributed to higher real interestrates, the UI reform of 1972, and slightly adverse net demographicpressure.     

The determinants of exit from institutions and the price elasticity of institutional care: Evidence from Japanese micro-level data

This study examines how the price mechanism affects the length of residents’ at institutions and their destination after exit. Using micro-level data from The Survey on Care Service Providers compiled by the Japanese government, we show that the price elasticity of the hazard of exit was 1.7 from welfare care facilities was 1.8 from health care facilities. Moreover, our estimates reveal that a 1 percentage point increase in copayments leads to an increase in the probability of returning home by 0.04% for residents of welfare care facilities and 3.7% for those of health care facilities and a decrease in the probability of being re-hospitalized by 3.3% for residents of health care facilities and 1.9% for those of medical care facilities. Our findings demonstrate that an appropriate price policy may work well to shorten clients’ length of stay and to reduce the number of the socially institutionalized.     

Modelling the influence of caring for the elderly on migration: estimates and evidence from Indonesia

In a society where children are expected to support the elderly, the ill health of an elderly parent is likely to influence an individual's propensity to migrate. Using data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey, we examine the manner in which the responsibility to care for an elderly parent who is in poor health affects the migration decisions of working-age adults. Our analysis suggests that individuals will be less likely to migrate if they have elderly parents who are in poor health. These findings are robust to specifications using alternative measures of poor health.