新疆人均收入和收入不平等的增长与收敛——基于空间面板模型

新古典经济增长模型预测,随着时间的推移,人均收入的差距将会缩小,收入不平等将会逐渐趋同。本文利用1995年—2012年新疆15个地州的空间面板数据,采用跨部门模型和空间面板数据模型,并考虑空间交互效应来检验上述预测对新疆的正确性。研究结果显示,在对教育程度、失业、产业构成、人均收入的空间滞后增长以及区域固定效应进行调控之后,人均收入存在条件收敛,而收入不平等则存在无条件收敛。     

High‐speed Rail and Urban Economic Growth in China after the Global Financial Crisis

High‐speed rail (HSR) has been an important driver of China's economic expansion over the last decade. Using data of 285 prefecture‐level cities over 2010–2014, this paper proposes an endogenous economic growth model to explain how and why HSR may have propelled China's economic growth by reducing the time‐space between cities. The research results show that HSR has a potent effect on urban economic growth and regional convergence. Ceteris paribus, HSR appears to have accelerated economic growth by more than 0.6 percent and the pace of regional economic convergence by approximately 2 percent per annum over the data period. Our research findings have important policy implications for the sustainability of China's economic development, backed by HSR.     

Convergence and Intercountry Inequality within Asia: A Combined Approach Using Decomposition Techniques and Transitional Dynamics Analysis

This study provides a comprehensive analysis of intercountry inequality and convergence in Asia by using a combined approach that is based on decomposition techniques and transitional dynamics analysis. The research is divided into three stages. First, decomposition by regional subgroups is conducted to estimate the contributions of the interregional component and the five spatial groupings to overall inequality to reveal the development of inequality in Asia. Second, the technique of decomposition by income sources is used to evaluate the relative significance of the agricultural, industrial and service sectors to facilitate formulation of industrial policy for economic development. Finally, the present study analyses the evolution of regional inequality and assesses the possibility of convergence.     

中部六省区域创新能力趋同发展的空间计量经济分析

在新古典增长模型的基础上,建立区域创新发展β趋同的空间计量分析模型,采用中部六省2004—2012年的面板数据,分析了空间效应和β趋同效应及其成因。研究结果表明:中部六省自国家提出"中部崛起"发展战略以来,集聚性明显增强,空间联系也不断密切。以发明专利申请授权量衡量的省域创新发展确实存在条件趋同趋势,且科研经费投入对创新发展的推动作用大于研发人员投入的推动作用。     

财政转移支付与缩小地区差距

学者们对于财政转移支付在缩小我国地区差距中的目标定位存在分歧.本文利用财政转移支付理论和内生经济增长理论的分析表明,合理的财政转移支付政策在短期内可以缩小政府间的财力差距,在长期内能够通过影响各地的公共支出水平缩小地区经济发展差距.     

Trends in neighbourhood inequality of Australian, Canadian, and United States of America cities since the 1970s

It is important to locate recent increases in neighbourhood inequality and economic segregation of Australian cities within the international debate about increasing urban disparities. The present article uses standard inequality techniques to show that neighbourhood inequality is increasing within Australian, Canadian, and USA cities. While the labour market status of people in poor neighbourhoods is similar for Australia and the USA, there is an almost inexorable trend towards increasing income inequality, probably reflecting ongoing labour market deregulation and the stricter welfare regimes that have been in place since the 1980s. Policy options to deal with locational disadvantage and increased economic segregation are also considered in detail.     

贸易自由化对我国地区收入不平等的影响:来自中国的经验证据

文章基于协整的VAR模型从实证的角度研究了我国地区收入不平等与贸易自由化之间的长期均衡和短期动态关系。研究发现：（1）地区收入不平等、贸易自由化与经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系,贸易自由化和经济增长对于关注参数而言是弱外生变量;（2）贸易自由化在长期内减缓了我国地区收入不平等程度,但在短期内却导致了我国地区收入不平等程度的上升;（3）经济增长长期内趋于提高了我国地区收入不平等程度,但短期的影响方向不确定;（4）地区收入不平等是一个随机游走过程,不是一个含有结构突变的趋势平稳过程。     

我国地区产业结构趋同及其发展对策研究

产业结构趋同是制约我国经济发展的重要因素之一。本文阐述了地区间产业结构趋同的现状及其对我国国民经济发展的不良影响,剖析了形成我国地区间产业结构趋同的主要原因,即市场经济体制和行政管理体制的双重体制缺陷。最后结合我国当前的实际情况并针对产业结构趋同成因提出了解决问题的办法。     

中国区域俱乐部收敛的形成与变化——基于参数与非参数估计的研究

很多研究者认为1978年以来中国东部与中西部的发展差距可以用俱乐部收敛假说解释,由于文章利用参数和非参数估计方法对1978—2005年中国区域经济俱乐部收敛性进行检验时发现,20世纪90年代中期曾经出现了俱乐部收敛的特征,但最近几年趋于消失,所以在统筹区域发展时对俱乐部收敛特征的新变化要引起重视。     

南北经济收敛性与共同富裕

区域经济收敛有利于协调区域发展,从而有助于实现我国共同富裕的奋斗目标。然而我国幅员辽阔,区域经济差距由来已久。当下,从GDP总量的角度来看,我国区域经济格局呈南北经济差距扩大的态势。文章利用我国284个地级市文章中的284个地级市还包括4个直辖市。2000—2019年面板数据,探析了南北经济差距演变情况。首先,基于σ收敛和dagum基尼系数分析了人均实际GDP演变特征;其次,构建β收敛模型分析了南北经济收敛性,并考察了人力资本、物质资本、技术水平、对外开放和财政支出对南北经济收敛的影响;最后,文章从共同富裕的视角,对我国西南、西北和东北地区与其他地区的经济收敛性进行探讨。研究发现:(1)南北区域经济存在显著的俱乐部效应,南方内部经济由收敛演变为不具有显著收敛特征,而北方内部经济差距均呈收敛趋势;(2)适度的人力资本的流动不会导致经济发散,物质资本总体上延缓区域经济收敛速度,财政支出对区域经济收敛的作用有限,而技术水平和对外开放对经济收敛速度的影响不稳定;(3)从实现共同富裕的总体目标来看,西北地区的经济表现与其他地区存在显著差异,东北和西南的小部分区域也需要引起一定的重视。对此文章提出合理化建议,以期更好实现共同富裕目标。     

Agglomeration Effects versus Policy Effects: The Case of the Electronics Industry in Malaysia

The present study analyses investments within the Malaysian electronics industry in 1991 to assess the effectiveness of development policy in light of strong agglomeration effects in the electronics industry. We find that agglomeration and the use of industrial estates as development policy have had positive effects on firms' location choice. However, agglomeration has a much larger effect than industrial estates. In addition, we find that the marginal effect of industrial estates is positively correlated with the degree of agglomeration. This suggests that improvement of problems of regional inequality by industry estates would be very difficult in reality.     

江苏农村经济区域差异的原因分析——来自苏州、南通、宿迁的实证

江苏农村宏观经济发展态势越来越好,但区域间的差异却日益显著.文章以苏州、南通、宿迁的农村经济为研究对象,通过对1999-2005年的数据资料进行实证分析发现人力资本投资意识与人力资本存量、区位优势与吸引投资能力、农民的个人意愿与富余劳动力数量是造成江苏农村经济区域差异的原因.     

The relative contributions of location and preferential policies in China's regional development: being in the right place and having the right incentives

A large part of the literature on provincial inequality in China has found it necessary to include regional dummies in the provincial growth regressions. A smaller but vocal part of the literature has emphasised the granting of preferential policies to explain the faster growth of the coastal provinces. We replace the regional dummies with a measure of the ability to participate in international trade (Geography), and a preferential policy index (Policy). We find that geography and policy had about equal influence on coastal growth (3 percentage points each). Geography affected growth with a much longer lag than policy, however. The policy index was highest for the metropolises (Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin) and lowest for the central and northwestern provinces. The preferential policies are to a large extent “deregulation policies” that enabled marketization and internationalization of the coastal economies and allowed them to become more like their East Asian neighbours (and competitors). The weak (statistically insignificant) support for conditional convergence is in line with the existence of institutions that retard the income convergence process generated by the movement of labor and capital and by the Stolper–Samuelson mechanism. The household registration system ties the peasants to the land, the monopoly state bank system favors borrowing by state enterprises, and local protectionism reduces inter-provincial trade. Clearly, these institutions need to be deregulated. An effective strategy to develop the western provinces must therefore encompass physical capital formation, human capital formation, and institutional capital formation.     

深圳市居民收入的区域差异分析——基于泰尔指数及其分解的测度

在特区扩容和"一市两法"困局破解的契机下,解决原特区内外发展不平衡、促进市域均衡化发展,成为深圳新一轮发展的主要任务之一。选取人均GDP和城镇居民人均可支配收入作为衡量指标,利用深圳六区2005~2009年的统计数据,从泰尔指数及其分解的角度对深圳市居民收入的区域差异进行测度分析。结果表明,深圳市居民收入的区域差异水平显著低于全国水平,但近年来呈现显著的逐步上升趋势;原特区内外的居民收入差异是全市居民收入区域差异的主要来源,近年来呈显著的逐步扩大趋势。同时还证明,GDP数据不能准确反映居民的实际收入分配情况,采用人均GDP指标来分析居民收入差异不能得到准确的结果。     

中国区域经济收敛与地区差距的再检验

本文首先收集1985—2006年中国28个省市数据验证中国区域经济增长的条件β收敛和绝对β收敛,然后运用Blinder—Oaxaca分解方法来分析造成我国东部地区与中西部地区发展差距的原因。实证结果显示,我国自1985年来区域经济增长没有表现出收敛性。当我们将全国划分为东部地区和中西部地区后,我们发现东部地区经济增长收敛,而中西部地区经济增长不收敛。Blinder—Oaxaca分解结果显示,中西部地区与东部地区经济发展差距扩大的最主要原因是中西部地区实物资本投资不足。随着改革开放的深入,外商直接投资和开放程度在地区差距中发挥的作用越来越大,而教育和地理位置的优惠政策的作用则越来越小。     

新时代推进区域高等教育公平发展研究

区域高等教育的发展对区域经济发展以及缩小地区间教育质量差距具有显著影响。立足于我国当前时代背景,探讨区域高等教育公平的内涵意义,分析新时代我国区域高等教育公平的发展现状,总结归纳区域高等教育公平发展起点、过程、结果公平性不均衡现象,有层次地进行问题检视并剖析其中原因。在此基础上,提出相关经济、政策制度、资源配置等方面的建议,能有效缓解区域间不平等态势,提高区域高等教育质量水平。     

Coping with regional inequality in Sweden: structural change,migrations, and policy, 1860–2000

In many countries, regional income inequality has followed an inverted U‐shaped curve, growing during industrialization and market integration and declining thereafter. By contrast, Sweden's regional inequality dropped from 1860 to 1980 and did not exhibit this U‐shaped pattern. Accordingly, today's regional income inequality in Sweden is lower than in other European countries. We note that the prime mover behind the long‐run reduction in regional income differentials was structural change, whereas neoclassical and technological forces played a relatively less important role. However, this process of regional income convergence can be divided into three major periods. During the first period (1860–1940), the unrestricted action of market forces, particularly the expansion of markets and high rates of internal and international migration, led to the compression of regional income differentials. During the next period (1940–80), regional convergence was even more intense. In this period, institutional arrangements favoured the reduction of productivity differentials across industries and successive governments aided the reallocation of the workforce from declining to thriving regions and economic sectors. During the last period (1980–2000), when regional incomes diverged, internal migration and structural change slowed. Furthermore, the development of knowledge‐intensive service industries favoured economic growth in the main metropolitan areas.     

The Inequality of Regional Economic Development in China between 1991 and 2001

This paper measures the unequal development of the regional economies in China and investigates the primary factors leading to the inequality. The official data on China's regional GDP and the regional GDP of three industrial sectors from 1991–2001, as reported in the China Statistical Yearbook and A Statistical Survey of China, are adopted to calculate and decompose the Gini coefficient for each year. The primary finding is that the levels of inequality in China's regional economies clearly showed a slight upward trend after 1991. The inequality of the overall GDP is primarily attributed to the between-group effect rather than to the within-group effect. It is also found that the regional inequality of the secondary industry sector's development accounted for half of the overall inequality. Thus, this study suggests that it is crucial for China to formulate and adhere to policies that will help it to develop the economy more equally among all areas and to develop the secondary industry sector among all regions/provinces in order to overcome the important issue of the inequality in regional economic development.     

Structural Changes and Regional Income Inequality in Indonesia: A Bidimensional Decomposition Analysis*

Using the bidimensional decomposition method of a population‐weighted coefficient of variation, this paper analyzes the changes in the determinants of interprovincial income inequality associated with structural changes in Indonesia from 1983 to 2004. The method unifies two inequality decompositions by regional groups and gross regional product components (industrial sectors) and, therefore, enables us to assess the contributions of gross regional product components to within‐region and between‐region inequalities, as well as to overall inequality. As the share of mining has decreased, the spatial distribution of manufacturing has played a more important role in the inequality of Sumatra and Kalimantan, while the primacy of Jakarta, with strong urbanization economies, facilitated by globalization and trade and financial liberalization, has determined much of the Java–Bali region's inequality and, therefore, overall inequality in Indonesia.     

Measuring regional labour markets in South Africa: How robust are sub-national estimates from the Quarterly Labour Force Survey?

This article explores the limitations of using data from the Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) to estimate robust sub-national labour market indicators in South Africa. The precision of labour market indices in the QLFS is very sensitive to which geographic scale is examined – national, provincial or metro – and in each instance the size of the population of the province or metro. The results show that errors from sampling at regional and city levels may be prohibitively large although in some instances broad patterns between regions can be identified notwithstanding a fairly blunt instrument. The findings highlight the imperative to be transparent about sampling errors and to foster sensitivity within government, business and the public in general. This exercise is instructive for generating other regional socio-economic indicators that are based upon similar household sample surveys such as the General Household Survey, Living Conditions Survey and Income and Expenditure Survey.