Price variability and price convergence: Evidence from Indonesia

This paper evaluates price variability and price convergence in Indonesia. Using price indices of 35 products in 45 cities from January 2002 to April 2008, this study shows that, during the observed period, prices in Indonesia converged to the ‘relative’ law of one price. The price variability of one product across cities is found to be smaller than the price variability of all products within a city. Transportation costs and the level of development matter to price variability. This study also reveals that the average speed of convergence, which is measured by the half-life, for perishable goods is about 9 months, non-perishable goods 32–36 months, and services 18–19 months, while the median of the half-life of all products is about 16–17 months. The speed of convergence depends on the initial price difference, but not the distance between cities.     

Revisiting the Impact of Consumption Growth and Inequality on Poverty in Indonesia during Decentralisation

This article analyses the consumption growth elasticity and inequality elasticity of poverty in Indonesia, with a particular focus on the decentralisation period. Using provincial panel data, we show that the effectiveness of growth in alleviating poverty across provinces was greater during decentralisation—that is, between 2002 and 2010—than at any other point since 1984. The growth elasticity of poverty since 2002 is estimated to have been –2.46, which means that a 10% increase in average consumption per capita would have reduced the poverty rate by almost 25%. However, we also find that rising income inequality negated a quarter to a third of the 5.7-percentage-point reduction in the headcount poverty rate. This increasing inequality has contributed to a lower level of pro-poor growth than that maintained in Indonesia before decentralisation.     

Social protection and regional convergence in a European Monetary Union

This paper addresses convergence in social protection and GDP in a European Economic and Monetary Union. We evaluate the impact of recently proposed EC social minimum requirements on regional convergence within the EC. Subsequently, we analyze a system of differentiated social norms as a means of raising social protection in countries with lower social standards.     

我国地区产业结构趋同及其发展对策研究

产业结构趋同是制约我国经济发展的重要因素之一。本文阐述了地区间产业结构趋同的现状及其对我国国民经济发展的不良影响,剖析了形成我国地区间产业结构趋同的主要原因,即市场经济体制和行政管理体制的双重体制缺陷。最后结合我国当前的实际情况并针对产业结构趋同成因提出了解决问题的办法。     

Regional wage convergence in Spain 1850–1930

This paper presents a new regional database on real wages for Spain from 1850 to 1930. This evidence is used to analyze the evolution of wages across regions and occupations. Substantial wage convergence occurred from 1850 to 1914, despite low rates of internal migration. World War I and the subsequent globalization backlash were associated with a spectacular increase in wage differentials. However, real wage convergence across Spanish provinces resumed during the 1920s, this time accompanied by high rates of internal migration.     

Evolution of Poverty During the Crisis in Indonesia

The economic crisis caused a clear deterioration in the welfare of the Indonesian people. In this paper, we examine the appropriate method to compare the change in poverty rates over time. We then piece together a consistent series of estimates of poverty rates during the crisis from various sources, covering a period from February 1996 to February 2002. The reconciliation of these various estimates paints a very reasonable picture and neatly tracks events. The poverty rate increased from the lowest point of approximately 15% at the onset of the crisis in the middle of 1997 to the highest point of approximately 33% nearing the end of 1998. This maximum increase in poverty rate during the crisis of 18 percentage points implies that approximately 36 million additional people were pushed into absolute poverty due to the crisis. After the peak point, the poverty rate started to decline again and reached the pre-crisis level of approximately 15% at the end of 1999, implying that the lost time in poverty reduction due to the crisis was approximately 2.5years. However, the poverty rate after this point appears to have fluctuated. During 2001 and early 2002, poverty was on the rise again.     

The Economic Cost of Violent Conflict: The Case of Maluku Province in Indonesia

Against the background of the socio-economic and political crises of 1998–2000 in Indonesia, one of its provinces, Maluku, endured its own internal conflicts between 1999 and 2004. The coincidence of these national and regional crises—the tumult affecting Indonesia as a whole and the conflict restricted to Maluku—make the impact of local conflict on Maluku’s economy hard to identify empirically. To solve this problem, we use a synthetic control method (SCM) to construct a synthetic control unit for Maluku based on other Indonesian provinces. Our findings support the view that the violence in Maluku between 1999 and 2004 shifted the regional economy onto a lower growth path.     

Poverty and Vulnerability in Indonesia Before and After the Economic Crisis

It is well known that the economic crisis in Indonesia has caused the poverty rate to increase significantly. The present study finds, not only that the poverty rate increased significantly, but also that much of the increase was due to a large increase in the chronic poor category (i.e. the poor who have expected consumption below the poverty line and most likely will stay poor in the near future). Furthermore, the present study also finds that the proportion of households that have high vulnerability to poverty has more than doubled since the economic crisis. As a result, the proportion of the total vulnerable group (the current poor plus the high vulnerability group) has jumped from less than one-fifth of the population before the crisis to more than one-third after the crisis.     

Manufacturing in India and Indonesia: performance and policies

Since the global financial crisis of 2008, the world has been riveted by China's rapid growth and its contribution to the global recovery. But less attention has been paid to India and Indonesia – Asia's two other giants – which also displayed resilience during the crisis and show promise of sustaining this performance. Also remarkable are their geographical, historical and cultural proximity; notwithstanding their differences, these two countries are alike in many respects and face similar challenges, as reflected in their emerging policy priorities. China's large size and rapid growth may have absorbed the attention of Indian and Indonesian policy makers, but this paper argues that a comparative approach to the issues that both countries face can yield interesting insights and provide potential solutions to their development challenges.     

The Spatial Dimension of Welfare and Poverty: Lessons from a Regional Targeting Programme in Indonesia

This paper examines the spatial dimension of welfare and poverty in Indonesia and explores the effective policy interventions to remedy the regional economic disparity which was most vividly shown during the recent economic crisis. The econometric estimations confirm the existence of a spatial poverty trap, where poverty persists for generations. The inclusion of the placement of Impres Desa Tertingal (IDT) implemented during 1994–96 suggests that the regional targeting programme could fail to achieve its policy goal when the empowerment of local communities is insufficient. It is suggested that full–scale decentralization could remedy the targeting policy failure.
JEL classification : O 15; O 18; R 15     

Village Governance,Community Life,and the 2014 Village Law in Indonesia

In January 2014, the government of Indonesia issued Law 6/2014 on Villages, primarily to address weaknesses in the decentralisation paradigm by improving governance arrangements and shifting resources to a level of government less captured by special interests. Using longitudinal data from 40 Indonesian villages in the three Local Level Institutions studies, fielded in 1996, 2001, and 2012, we investigate the effects that prior policy has had on village life and identify the likely implications of the 2014 law on village governance. We focus on shifts in the capacities of and opportunities for local governments to increase their responsiveness to community needs, as well as consider the constraints on these governments. We suggest that there is potential for the law to increase government responsiveness—through a combination of strong financial management systems, new national institutional arrangements, and empowered citizens who can apply pressure on village governments to work in the interests of communities—but that substantial risks and obstacles remain.     

Measuring the Impact of Microfinance on Child Health Outcomes in Indonesia

Microfinance has become a staple of modern development policy as a means to facilitate anything from gender equality to growth. It can facilitate the sharing of health-related information among parents, promote the bargaining power of women in the household, aid in the development of important health-related infrastructure, and help households smooth consumption in the wake of unexpected economic shocks. Using data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey (1993–2000), we find that the presence of microfinance institutions in communities significantly improves the health of children.     

印尼经济转型及其与中国经贸合作前景

印尼是东盟最大的经济体。苏西洛就任总统后,通过实施有效政策,印尼很快走上经济复苏与政治整合的发展道路。目前,印尼经济转型加快推进,虽然面临着一系列难题,但发展态势依旧良好,为中印经贸合作持续发展奠定了基础。     

发达省份区域增长失衡的回应:苏南与苏北

改革开放以来江苏省经济发展迅速,但区域增长失衡问题一直非常明显,与经济水平高度发达的苏南地区相比,苏北地区经济发展相对落后,对此在内生增长理论的基础上进行实证研究:资本投入不足、资本收益较低是苏北发展缓慢从而导致苏南苏北差距的主要原因.人力资本的外溢效应和交通基础设施等是导致苏南苏北地区增长失衡的重要因素,而苏中崛起战略可以带动苏北经济的发展。     

Brothers in distress: Revolving capital flows of Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand

The paper examines hypothesized linkages between external borrowings and capital flights as presented in [Boyce, J. K. (1992). The revolving door? External debt and capital flight: Philippine case study. World Development, 20(3), 335–349]. The results for Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand show that large sums of capital flowed in and out of these economies in a revolving door fashion. The findings suggest the necessity for sound domestic management as well as effective international involvement in capital flows.     

公共就业服务供给区域差异与合理性分析——基于不平等回归分解方法

在公共服务供给区域差异研究中,往往忽视差异中的合理成分,而供给的合理性很大程度上受需求因素的影响。文章以公共就业服务供给为研究对象,使用Gini系数回归分解方法控制需求因素对供给区域差异的影响。研究发现,需求因素对公共就业服务供给差异造成了一定的影响,在控制需求因素后,不平等程度在可接受范围内。