Environmental problems and developing countries

The status of environmental conditions for forests, soils, water, air, and atmospheric changes is presented for developing countries. Loss and degradation of forests continue. The rate of cutting of moist tropical forests is 17-20 million hectares/year. The consequences would be eventual total destruction within several generations, lost soil and watershed protection, local climate change, and habitat destruction. The human toll can also be great as seen by the flooding deaths of 5000 Philippine villagers. Soil erosion is a greater danger than desertification. In sub-Saharan Africa, total harvest and yields of important food crops have declined compared to increases elsewhere in the world. In countries such as Costa Rica, Malawi, Mali, and Mexico the soil losses approximate .5-1.5% of gross domestic product annually. Progress has been made in water purification, but there are still nearly 1 million people in the developing world without access to clean water for drinking and bathing. 1.7 billion have inadequate sanitation. Access to sanitation in urban areas is on the rise. Waterborne diseases are a result of poor sanitation: 900 million cases of diarrheal disease/year, 500 million with trachoma, 200 million with schistosomiasis, or bilharzia, and 900 million from hookworm. Other diseases resulting from improper sanitation are cholera, typhoid, and paratyphoid. Water scarcity is another problem. Air quality is threatened by dust and smoke pollution which contribute to respiratory illnesses, by indoor burning of wood and charcoal particularly in rural Africa and south Asia, and high levels of lead from automobile emissions. Hundreds of thousands of people are affected through increased illness and even loss of mental functioning as in the case of lead poisoning. Atmospheric changes such as ozone depletion or global warming may not show their impact until decades later. The consequences are high levels of ultraviolet radiation which cause cancers, cataracts, and possibly immune system damage, and temperature increases which will increase the levels of the seas.     

Futures dossier: Electronic information—impact of the database

Even in the high growth world of information technology, the growth in the use of electronic information services is startling. In 1978 there were 300 data-bases available in public services; by 1983 there were 2 000. The LINK report on database services in 1984¹ forecasts growth in US user expenditures for online database services from $1224 million in 1983 to $3 462 million in 1988. While this is small compared with the total revenues of the publishing industry, nevertheless it represents a significant trend in what people are willing to pay for information.     

Feeding Latin America's children.

More than US $1.6 billion is spent annually on 104 programs in 19 Latin American and Caribbean countries to subsidize or provide food for people supposedly at risk of malnutrition. This amount constitutes only 0.2% of these countries gross national product. If there is no double-counting, these programs reach more than 80 million people, or 21% of the population, at a cost of $20/beneficiary or $4 per capita. Yet some 10 million children are malnourished, which suggests that the expenditures are poorly directed or ineffective. There is little hard evidence that these programs are preventing much malnutrition; even curative results are seldom measured. THe effort is too small in some countries with great needs, while other countries have nearly eliminated malnutrition. Where coverage is high, programs--although generally targeted and with sensible criteria--do not always reach the neediest. They may also fail to provide enough food or to combine food with the health care and nutritional education necessary to attack all 3 root causes of malnutrition: poverty, disease, and ignorance. The evidence, limited mostly to program inputs rather than results, suggests that greater progress against undernourishment is possible even with current spending levels.     

Building resilience

Failure is a familiar trauma in life, but its effects on people differ widely. Some reel, recover, and move on with their lives; others get bogged down by anxiety, depression, and fear of the future. Seligman, who is known as the father of positive psychology, has spent three decades researching failure, helplessness, and optimism. He created a program at the University of Pennsylvania to help young adults and children overcome anxiety and depression, and has worked with colleagues from around the world to develop a program for teaching resilience. That program is being tested by the U.S. Army, an organization of 1.1 million people where trauma is more common and more severe than in any corporate setting. Nevertheless, businesspeo-ple can draw lessons from resilience training, particularly in times of failure and stagnation. The program is called Comprehensive Soldier Fitness, and it has three components: the Global Assessment Tool, a test for psychological fitness (administered to more than 900,000 soldiers to date); self-improvement courses following the test; and "master resilience training" (MRT) for drill sergeants. MRT focuses on enhancing mental toughness, highlighting and honing strengths, and fostering strong relationships-core competencies for any successful manager.     

《食品安全与卫生》课程教学改革的探索与研究

随着人们生活水平的提高,食品安全与卫生越来越受社会的广泛关注。食品安全与卫生是当前世界范围内普遍存在的问题。彻底解决任重道远。从食品安全与卫生课程内容体系的构建、授课方式和方法及考核形式等方面进行探索与阐述,总结近了几年教学改革做法,为今后教学提供更好的对策。     

Can India meet the increasing food demand by 2020?

India's Green Revolution has evolved at an environmental cost, which is perhaps irreversible. The economic growth has become increasingly dependant upon the use of non-renewable resources such as chemical fertilizers, pesticides, oil and coal. India now follows a rapid development path, which is similar to the past growth patterns of most western nations. Whether or not such a growth blueprint would be environmentally sustainable under Indian conditions is questionable since rapid economic growth tends to positively influence environmental degradation. India is a land of villages with 700 million people living in over 600,000 villages, many in the enormous drylands. As the Tata Visiting Chair, I had the opportunity to study the rural development projects implemented by a non-profit agency (Sadguru Foundation) that harvests rainwater to improve irrigation and livelihood of rural people using check dams and lift irrigation systems in western India. This paper has examined how India's remote drylands can be transformed to achieve a ‘Sustainable Green Revolution’ to meet India's future food demands without creating serious negative consequences to natural environment. If the model highlighted in this paper is adopted all across the vast drylands of India and other parts of Asia, Africa and South America, it would certainly increase agricultural output, guarantee future food security, protect natural resources, and above all exterminate the greatest insult to human dignity—poverty!     

World food prices and monetary policy

How should monetary policy respond to large fluctuations in world food prices? We study this question in an open economy model in which imported food has a larger weight in domestic consumption than abroad and international risk sharing can be imperfect. A key novelty is that the real exchange rate and the terms of trade can move in opposite directions in response to world food price shocks. This exacerbates the policy trade-off between stabilizing output prices vis a vis the real exchange rate, to an extent that depends on risk sharing and the price elasticity of exports. We characterize implications for dynamics, optimal monetary policy, and the relative performance of practical monetary rules. While CPI targeting and expected CPI targeting can dominate PPI targeting if international risk sharing is perfect, even seemingly mild departures from the latter make PPI targeting a winner.     

Picking winners. Interview by Diane Coutu

In the business world, "creativity" has become the latest buzzword. How to attract, nurture, and direct the extraordinarily talented people who will come up with the next Lipitor, SonyWalkman, or iPod is an enduring topic among business-people. As the director of the MacArthur Fellows Program, Daniel J. Socolow has considerable experience with the process of rooting out creativity. In this conversation with HBR senior editor Diane Coutu, he describes how recipients of the "genius grant"--half a million dollars with no strings attached--are chosen. As significant as the money is, the recognition that comes with a fellowship may be more so. MacArthur grants provide powerful validation of the fellows' work, Socolow says, and that validation opens doors for people, whatever the field. Although the program keeps a lookout for entrepreneurs who are on the brink of major new advances, he believes that the market does a good job of rewarding the best ideas in business. Replicating the MacArthur model in a company would entail giving some employees unlimited time and lots of money to follow their own inclinations--not very feasible in most contexts. Nevertheless, the program has learned a lesson that may be valuable for business: The kind of creativity that leads to important breakthroughs is extremely hard to find. And, says Socolow, exceptionally creative people aren't always the obvious suspects, who may simply be good at promoting themselves: "Listen to others and look in the least likely places ... Extend your networks and try to get information from as many people as possible, just as we do".     

"Population policy in developed countries."

Bernard Berelson's book, "Population Policy in Developed Countries," provides a report on population policy in the developed world as of the early 1970s, covering countries with 20 million population or over, and 11 countries of special interest. There are chapters by national experts from 25 countries. A developed country is defined as industrialized, healthier, better educated, better off, more modernized, and distinguished by low fertility. This does not mean that population growth in these countries has yet fallen to zero or lower, but in 7 or 8 countries, population is expected to stabilize in a decade or so unless recent fertility trends reverse themselves or are offset by immigration. The conclusions drawn from the 25 country reports are summarized, and highlights of the demographic situation and policies in 12 of the countries are presented, Berelson is cautious in predicting the future shape of population policy in the developed world. There have been too many policy changes in the past to be confident of the future. He feels, however, that more and more people are likely to accept the goal of replacement, up to replacement in some countries and down to replacement in others.     

How Have the World's Poorest Fared since the Early 1980s?

A new assessment is made of the developing world's progressagainst poverty. By the frugal $1 a day standard there were1.1 billion poor people in 2001—almost 400 million fewerthan 20 years earlier. During that period the number of poorpeople declined by more than 400 million in China, though halfthe decline was in the early 1980s and the number outside Chinarose slightly. At the same time the number of people in theworld living on less than $2 a day rose, so that there has beena marked bunching up of people living between $1 and $2 a day.Sub-Saharan Africa has become the region with the highest incidenceof extreme poverty and the greatest depth of poverty. If thesetrends continue, the 1990 aggregate $1 a day poverty rate willbe halved by 2015, meeting the Millennium Development Goal,though only East and South Asia will reach this goal.      

Top Ten Destinations for New Year Celebration (Ⅱ)

Brandenburg Gate, Berlin If Paris and London are the refined parents at New Year's Eve, then Berlin is the drunken uncle. Over a million people gather for this overwhelming celebration, with a massive fireworks display, music, dancing, light shows,international food stands, and beer tents (it is Germany after all).     

Perception of gene technology,and food risks: results of a survey in Switzerland

Perceptions of and attitudes toward genetically engineered food and other food hazards were examined through data from telephone interviews conducted in Switzerland. A random quota sample was used ( N v = v 1001). General attitudes toward technology and political beliefs significantly influenced perceptions of gene technology. Women were more concerned about gene technology and food risks than men were. The term 'gene technology' evoked neutral or negative associations in most people; few people held positive images regarding this technology. Perception and acceptance of gene technology varied according to the type of application; people were less concerned about convenience or processed food. Although it is mandatory to label genetically modified food in Switzerland, relatively few people were familiar with this label. Participants assessed various food risks, and principal components analysis indicated that they distinguished between technological and natural food risks. Implications of these results are discussed.     

Eliminating entry barriers for the provision of banking services: Evidence from ‘banking correspondents’ in Brazil

This paper shows that the contractual arrangement of ‘banking correspondents’ has eliminated entry barriers for the provision of banking services in Brazil. With the bank correspondents, banks are allowed to reach the almost 2200 municipalities without bank branches in 2000, connecting 45 million people to the financial sector. The evidence is based on the estimation of an entry model of financial providers in Brazilian municipalities. I estimate a zero population entry threshold for banking correspondents for the period from 2002 to 2007. The estimated population entry thresholds for bank branches in the same period are relatively stable at approximately 8000–9000 people. The population entry thresholds for the second to fifth players for banking correspondents are also consistently lower than those for bank branches.     

Financial Times Business School Rankings: A Nontraditional Assurance Case in Three Parts*

The Financial Times of London (FT) is a business newspaper, with daily editions published in the United Kingdom, continental Europe, the United States, and Asia, and an estimated daily readership of 10 million people. In 1999 the FT began to publish a ranking of what it considered to be the top business schools in the world. Since their inception, these rankings have become increasingly relied upon by potential students and business school administrators worldwide. The FT's ranking is unique compared with other rankings because of its special international focus. Given the prominence of these rankings and the FT's position as a well‐respected business newspaper, the question of providing assurance over the business school rankings that the FT provides is particularly challenging.     

The return of Malthus?: The global demographic future,2000–2050

The Western world, with its demographic explosion completed and increasing living standards, should not forget the warnings of Malthus. By 2001, at expected growth rates, the world is on track for 8000 million population by 2023, increasing the chance of global conflict, hardship and disorganization. A key issue for the developing world is that of government control v individual choice and whether, following the example of the socialist societies, feelings of national and community interest will be encouraged in attempts to reduce fertility levels.     

冯涛 PE独行侠

侠客,一直被赋予急人之难、出言必行、锄强扶弱、来去无踪的豪侠之意。古往今来,无论是文学作品,还是坊间谈唱,人们无不对侠客充满了敬佩之情。然而,我们本期的主人公并非江湖中所谓除恶扬善的高手,亦非施人柴米的善人,他是从事如今非常热火的私募股权投资行业的一位资深投资人士,但是他的投资方式及风格却特别符合独行侠的称号他不喜欢与人扎堆投资,但却总是能获得令人艳羡的投资回报;     

Exposure of the human population to BSE infectivity over the course of the BSE epidemic in Great Britain and the impact of changes to the Over Thirty Month Rule

The Over Thirty Month Rule (OTMR) was introduced in 1996 as a measure to reduce the exposure of the population to the BSE agent by limiting the age of animals that could be slaughtered for food. This study was carried out as part of the process of reviewing the OTMR that is currently being carried out by the UK Food Standards Agency (FSA). Data on the infectivity of bovine tissues, the development of infectivity through the incubation period and the cattle to human species barrier are reviewed. All the possible routes by which infective material could be included in food for human consumption, including contamination with infected tissues in the abattoir, embolism following slaughter, dorsal root ganglia in meat, mechanically recovered meat and failure of SRM controls are evaluated over the period of the BSE epidemic. It is estimated that the exposure from one fully infected animal slaughtered for food at the present time would be about 27 bovine oral ID₅₀ units, this compares to a peak value of about 1900 early in the epidemic. At present the exposure is primarily due to dorsal root ganglia, but over the course of the epidemic the main contributor to total infectivity is estimated to have been mechanically recovered meat (MRM). However, it is also shown that the potential exposure to infectivity due to MRM in any one meal would have been very small, casting doubt on whether this could have been an effective source of infection. By combining these estimates with estimates of numbers of infected animals by incubation period and year it is estimated that a total of some 54 million bovine oral ID₅₀ units would have been consumed from 1980 to date, reaching a peak of about 11 million units in 1993, but falling rapidly following the introduction of SBO ban and the OTMR. In 2001 it is estimated that the exposure for the whole UK population is only 2.5 bovine oral ID₅₀ units. The study has helped demonstrate that current exposure to BSE infective material in the UK is very low, and would remain very low if the OTMR was amended or abolished.     

Evolutionary psychology, complexity theory, and quantitative social epistemology

The human brain is the instrument by which we observe the external world (correspondence), and by which we communicate our interpretations of it to each other (coherence). Only a small part of the brain's behaviour is amenable to introspection, and subsequent linguistic articulation to other people. The vast majority of our perception and behaviour is shaped by subconscious compartmentalised functions which are the result of 2 million years of human evolution prior to the last 10,000 years of ‘civilisation.’ Both individually and collectively this behaviour is complex—full of non-linearities, feedback, and emergent effects. There is thus an overlap between evolutionary psychology and complexity theory. However, it may be that our ideas about complexity are not an independent tool with which to appraise evolutionary psychology, because they are instead the products of it. This evolved subconscious brain, about which we know so little, has the greatest channel capacity for both correspondence and coherence. It has evolved as a survival strategy to match our long generational deadtime, but may not be appropriate for new challenges to survival. It is suggested that we need to re-instate mankind and his brain as the central element of study, so that we can learn who we are that threaten our own existence.     

How world uncertainties and global pandemics destabilized food,energy and stock markets? Fresh evidence from quantile on quantile regressions

In this study, we analyse the impact of world uncertainty, global pandemics, including the recent COVID-19, and geopolitical risk on global food, energy commodities, and stock markets from a global perspective. The study uses quantile on quantile regression (QQR) and a quantile causality test using quarterly data from 1996Q1 to 2020Q1. Overall, the study results indicate heterogeneity in the influence of the world uncertainty index, global pandemic index, and geopolitical risk on the global food, energy, and stock markets. However, our findings predominantly show a negative impact of world uncertainty, and global pandemic on global food, energy commodities, and stock markets with substantial variations across markets (food, energy, and stock) and quantiles within each market. For robustness, this study applied the geopolitical risk and found the similar impact on food, energy and stock markets. Additionally, the quantile causality test confirms unidirectional causality running from world uncertainty, global pandemic uncertainty, and geopolitical risk to world food, energy, and stock markets. Our findings give a clear guideline to policymakers and investors managing food, energy, and equity markets during uncertainty and pandemic periods.     

基于面板分位数回归的住宅价格影响因素分析

采用面板分位数回归方法,以全国35个大中城市为样本,利用2006—2015年的数据,对影响住宅价格的因素进行研究。结果表明：土地价格、人均储蓄余额、在岗职工平均工资、人口密度、空气质量对住宅价格有正向影响,每亿人医院或卫生院数量对住宅价格有负向影响;并且不同分位数水平下各影响因素的作用大小具有明显差异。研究结论对不同城市依据自身特征采取相应的调控政策具有一定的参考价值。