信息化与中国就业结构:基于投入产出法的分析

文章首先比较分析了三次产业划分法和波拉特四次产业划分法下的中国就业结构状况,之后运用投入产出法对信息产业吸纳就业的能力进行了分析,研究了信息化对中国就业结构的影响。研究结果表明,信息产业吸纳就业的能力相对其他产业正由弱变强。并据此提出了一些通过信息化改善中国就业结构的政策建议。     

基于VAR模型对投资、就业与经济增长的实证研究

本文选用中国1978～2007年30年的数据,基于VAR模型运用Granger因果关系检验、脉冲响应分析、方差分解等方法分析投资、就业与经济增长三者之间的关系。实证结果表明:经济增长既是就业的格兰杰原因,也是投资的格兰杰原因;投资是就业的格兰杰原因;就业和经济增长均不是投资的格兰杰原因。投资可以促进就业和经济增长,经济增长也可以促进就业。     

非农就业提高农村居民幸福感了吗？

农村劳动力非农转移已经成为常态,对农村居民的福利水平产生了深远影响。文章基于体验效用假设,构建了工农要素流动下农村居民的幸福函数,并基于2018年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)农村调研数据,实证分析了非农就业影响农村居民幸福感的效应、机制与情境。结果表明:非农就业在总体上促进了农村居民幸福感提升,但却存在一定的"伊斯特林悖论"关系,即短期非农就业能够显著促进幸福增长,但长期非农就业对幸福增长的促进作用是有限的,甚至出现停滞或反向抑制状态;其内在机制主要在于非农就业过程中农村居民的需求层次逐渐由生存需要转向尊重和自我实现需要,但长期非农就业并不能显著提升外出务工农村居民的社会地位感知;非农就业对农村居民幸福感的促进效应,在本地非农就业和跨省流动的就业情境下更为显著,在女性群体、高中层次受教育程度群体中相对更高,且伴随农村居民的年龄增长呈现边际递减规律。基于此,文章提出创造本地就业市场、关注非农劳动力的就业需求变化、加强非农就业劳动力职业技能培训等针对性政策启示。     

Defining and measuring informal employment in South Africa

There is limited consensus on how to define informal employment in South Africa, but in the South African and international literature the three most common ways of capturing informal employment are the enterprise, employment relationship and worker characteristics approaches. This paper reviews the methods used by Statistics South Africa to measure informal employment before and after the introduction of the Quarterly Labour Force Survey, and other recently proposed methods. It then investigates the congruence, if any, between five measures of informality used in 2009. It finds that 94.7% of the self-employed are informal according to at least one definition, but only 62.6% according to all five combined. In addition, these two proportions are only 67.7% and 6.9% respectively in the case of informal employees. Econometric analysis is conducted to further investigate the differences between these measures.     

Empirical Analysis on Growth of Chinese Private Economy and Elasticity of Employment

This paper expatiates on the relationship between growth of Chinese private economy aria employment through the theory of elasticity of employment in economics. In the paper, the author has applied methods of empirical analysis to explain that the growth of Chinese private economy boosts employment and also probed into its political implication.     

新媒体视域下的辅导员就业服务能力探析

高校毕业生就业形势出现的新变化、毕业生就业形式的多样化以及新媒体的出现对辅导员就业服务能力提出了新要求。因此,辅导员必须紧跟时代步伐,积极培育社会主义核心价值观,以人为本,创新就业服务方式方法,加强就业心理辅导,完善就业服务方式,加大个性化指导力度,提高就业服务能力,进而实现毕业生高质量的就业。     

应用型高校营销人才就业模式创新研究

近年来,高校市场营销专业一直是就业最热门专业之一。但就业质量仍不尽如人意,“二次就业”和“两年现象”比较突出,给企业和学校都造成了非常大的困惑;更有不少高校对营销专业毕业生的就业工作仍旧采用传统的毕业推荐形式或依赖一次“双选会”来获取就业率,没有真正解决营销专业毕业生就业的市场供需矛盾。一方面是高校大量营销专业毕业生不断推向社会,另一方面是企业苦于招不到合适的营销人才,招人、用人成本昂贵。因此,文章从当前严峻的就业形势入手,探索新的形势下高校营销人才就业模式,并创造性提出了可操作的思路。     

江苏省经济增长与就业结构偏离研究

本文通过建立统计模型,运用数理统计的方法分析了江苏省各产业从业人员、地区生产总值和全社会固定资产投资之间的关系,反映了近年来江苏省就业增长状况的基本轮廊和江苏省近几年的经济发展与就业率相背离的现状,基于调整线性回归模型对经济增长率与就业增长率偏离的原因进行了分析,得出了保持经济适度快速增长,大力发展第三产业,开发人力资源,完善就业形式以促进就业增长等观点。     

汇率升值对就业影响的中日比较

关于就业问题,以往的研究主要从就业总量与就业结构两个角度进行探讨,本文对就业结构的研究进行了拓展,在实证研究中引入汇率,运用协整和误差修正模型对日中两国实际汇率与第三产业产值比重和就业比重之间的关系进行了国别比较。实证结果表明,从长期看日本第三产业就业比重上升与实际汇率升值正相关,而中国的相应变量间不存在类似长期关系。比较分析得出结论:只有在汇率适度浮动,资源在部门间流动壁垒减少这两个条件满足时,汇率升值才会产生资源配置作用,推动劳动向非贸易部门转移,逐步优化就业结构。     

跳出农业反哺农业:意义与路径

本文在分析跳出农业反哺农业重大意义的基础上,提出了不断推进农民工市民化、大力开发返乡农民工非农就业门路、鼓励返乡农民工涉农创业及提升返乡农民工就业创业能力等对策建议。     

Reevaluation of the Employment Impact of the 1996 Summer Olympic Games

Using empirical methods published more recently than our earlier analysis found in this journal, we continue to find a statistically significant and substantial employment impact of the 1996 Summer Olympic Games in Atlanta. Post‐Olympics versus pre‐Olympics employment gains in counties affected by the Olympics exceeded employment gains in the rest of the counties in Georgia by 11% by the end of 2000. In addition, Olympics‐affected counties in the metro Atlanta area experienced employment gains relative to other major Southern metropolitan statistical areas of roughly 5%. These results stand up to robustness and falsification tests.     

以科学发展观指导高校毕业生就业工作的思考

科学发展观为大学生就业工作提出了新的要求,也为加强和改进大学生就业工作指明了方向。以科学发展观为指导,从＂以人为本＂的理念出发,从观念、机制、制度、方法、队伍建设等方面创新并推进高等农业院校毕业生就业工作是高校毕业生就业形势严峻的状态下,创新就业工作的必由之路。     

我国产业结构与就业结构协调发展研究述评

文章从研究方法和主要研究领域的角度对当前我国产业结构与就业结构协调发展研究理论进行了梳理、总结和评析,指出现有研究在分析工具、滞后时间测度、国际比较方法、作用机理等方面存在不足。提出为促进产业结构与就业结构的协调发展,应该继续对产业结构与就业结构相互影响机理、如何衡量二者之间的整体协调性、就业结构滞后时间测算以及促进产业结构与就业结构协调发展政策等方面进行深入研究。     

Forecasting Employment Growth in Indonesia

This note discusses the dangers of using the employment-output elasticity to forecast employment creation in Indonesia. It demonstrates the unreliability of employment-output elasticity estimates for Indonesia obtained using various methods, and argues, that, in addition to the estimation problems, the elasticity method has inherent weaknesses that should preclude its use to forecast employment growth in a dynamic world.     

关于改善宏观调控的三点建议

宏观调控的目标应坚持以就业为先,“经济增长”应排在“增加就业”与“稳定物价”之后。当前中国经济的症结不是总量失衡而是结构失调,所以政府不宜采取调控总量的办法调整结构,结构问题应由“看得见的手”与“看不见的手”分而治之。政府应当用行政手段调节市场信号,通过市场信号间接调控企业。     

中国用工荒演变轨迹研究

文章对1979—2010年中国四大地区的劳动力就业数据,采用生物系统论研究方法,将地区劳动力视为复杂系统,对中国四大地区内外劳动力格局演变进行估计,从而深入讨论用工荒根源及演变轨迹。结果发现:劳动力就业自然增长率与人口自然增长率间有内在规律——23定律,这一定律是中国用工荒到来的根源,它决定中国东部、东北、中部、西部将先后于2014、2020、2025、2027年进入用工荒;东部用工荒是紧随劳动力自然就业繁荣期之后,而东北、中部和西部则是劳动力自然繁荣期后经历较长的潜伏期才进入用工荒。     

Lifetime employment in Japan: Concepts and measurements

This paper addresses three questions: (1) How big is lifetime employment in Japan? (2) How unique is it? and (3) How is it changing? Through the use of multiple data sets and methods, I find that no more than 20% of workers in Japan are likely to be employed under informal lifetime employment contracts, a far smaller percentage than has been reported. Job mobility remains considerably lower in Japan than in other advanced economies (particularly the US). Evidence regarding changes in lifetime employment is mixed. The share of workers in the core is declining, but the probability of job separations has remained stable for those who are already in the system. There is also evidence that the economic stagnation of the 1990s disproportionately affected females and younger workers.     

Economic Freedom and Migration Flows between U.S. States

A modified gravity model is estimated using a cross section of data drawn from the U.S. Census Bureau survey of 2000 in order to analyze the impact of economic freedom on gross migration flows among the lower 48 states. Spatial econometric methods are utilized in order to capture spatial effects not detected by distance. In addition, the Economic Freedom of North America Index is decomposed to determine the individual impact of various policies. Results show that states with higher relative economic freedom experience greater migration inflow through its direct impact on income and employment growth. In aggregate, the findings indicate that individuals migrate toward states with relatively higher government consumption expenditures, relatively lower tax burdens, and states with more freedom with respect to labor decisions in the form of less restrictive minimum wages, less concentration of unions, and less dependence on public employment.     

我国对外贸易就业效应的区域差异分析——基于省级面板数据的检验

本文利用1978～2004年的省级面板数据,将我国划分为东、中、西三大区域,考察了对外贸易的就业效应。结果表明,出口对国内就业具有显著的正向影响,进口对国内就业具有地区性差异;长期来说,不能以出口为导向来解决我国的就业问题,调整进口商品的结构,对解决就业具有十分重要的意义;我国存在着严重的资本替代劳动现象,应该发展劳动密集型产业;1997年的亚洲金融危机对我国就业造成了显著的负面影响。这表明,解决我国的就业不能脱离其他一系列宏观经济政策,需要将对外贸易政策、产业政策和汇率政策纳入同一个分析框架中进行。     

Trade and employment in Vietnam: how firms' trade matters

This paper aims to analyse how employment and wages change when a firm's trade status is altered. Using a detailed firm-level dataset of Vietnamese manufacturing enterprises, the study finds that how firms trade matters for firm employment and wages in Vietnam. The average effect of one-way trading (exporting or importing) is positive for both firms' total employment and female employment. Direct trading activities are associated with a higher level of employment than indirect trading activities by firms. The female employment effect of direct exports is nearly three times higher than direct imports. Indirect imports hurt firms' total employment and female employment. Both direct and indirect two-way traders experience higher growth in firm employment than direct-only traders. However, it is interesting to note that indirect two-way trading activities have a positive impact on female employment. Furthermore, the commencement of direct import is also associated with greater labour cost advantage.