贵州省雷电灾害风险评价与区划研究

[目的]从致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体和防雷减灾能力4个方面确定13个评价指标开展雷电灾害风险评价与区划研究,实现定量化的雷电灾害风险评价。[方法]应用闪电监测资料、土壤数据库资料、GTOP30数据集以及社会经济统计和相关地理信息数据,基于目标、准则、指标层建立雷电灾害风险评价模型,采用投影寻踪方法获取指标权重,定量化分析致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性以及防雷减灾能力强弱,研究综合雷电灾害风险并完成等级划分。[结果]贵州省雷电灾害风险西部高于东部,整体呈现由西南部向东北部递减。其中西部的水城、六枝、普定、晴隆以及贵阳的云岩区、南明区、白云区中北部为高风险区,次低及低风险区主要分布在威宁及赫章西部区域、开阳东北部、平塘中东部、独山、荔波、万山、玉屏、碧江、思南、石阡、沿河的部分区域。[结论]通过灾前风险识别,可针对性的制定综合对策,为提高贵州省雷电灾害防御能力提供科学决策参考。     

河北省乡村雷电灾害风险区划研究

［目的］河北省乡村雷电灾害损失严重,开展河北省乡村雷电灾害风险区划研究对于风险管理具有重要意义。［方法］文章利用2010—2016年河北省闪电定位网观测数据、河北省统计年鉴及2014—2016年全国雷电灾害汇编资料,选取地闪密度和最大地闪强度表征雷灾危险性,乡村用电量及乡村家电拥有量表征雷灾脆弱性。采用风险矩阵方法,得到河北省各区县行政单元风险估算值。［结果］河北省乡村雷灾极高风险区位于秦皇岛南部昌黎县、唐山东北部迁安市以及保定南部定州市,将风险区划结果与2014年乡村雷灾频次分布对比发现,乡村雷电多灾区和该文的高风险区有较高的重合度。［结论］风险区划结果可为河北省有关部门乡村雷电防灾减灾规划提供科学依据。     

山西省干旱灾害风险评估与区划

[目的]分析山西省干旱灾害风险的关键作用因子,并进行风险评估和区划,对于提升该地干旱灾害风险管理和决策水平、减轻干旱损失具有重要指导意义。[方法]文章利用改进的相对湿润度指数、DEM资料、地形坡度资料和1990—2016年以县(市)为单元的行政区域的人口密度、GDP、人均GDP、耕地面积等社会经济数据来定量化评价山西干旱风险,从干旱灾害致灾因子的危险性、孕灾环境的脆弱性、承灾体的易损性和防灾减灾能力4个方面选取因子,构建相应的指数模型并分析其空间分布状况,在此基础上进一步构建山西省干旱灾害风险综合评估模型,并基于GIS绘制山西省干旱灾害风险区划图。[结果]山西省干旱致灾因子危险性呈北高南低的趋势,大同、朔州、忻州北部和西部、太原南部的干旱致灾因子危险性最强;孕灾环境脆弱性呈东西两侧高、中间低的趋势,而承灾体易损性和防灾减灾能力均呈东西两侧低、中间高的趋势;从干旱灾害风险区划图可以看出,山西省干旱风险总体呈北高南低,从西北向东南递减的趋势。高风险区主要分布在大同、朔州东部,较高风险区包括朔州西部、忻州中西部、太原大部,吕梁大部、晋中西部、临汾中部、运城西部为中风险区,临汾西部、晋中大部、长治东北部为较低风险区,临汾东部、运城东部、晋城大部、长治西部和南部风险最低。[结论]山西省干旱灾害的精细化风险区划,可为相关区域有效地开展抗旱活动提供定量化依据,增强干旱灾害防御的科学性、实用性和可操作性。     

重庆市雷电灾害区划

［目的］进行雷电灾害区划,对加强雷电灾害管理、确保打赢防范化解重大风险攻坚战有重要意义。［方法］综合利用闪电定位仪数据、灾情资料、地理信息资料、社会经济数据,运用层次分析法构建指标体系,计算雷电灾害风险指数,进行重庆市雷电灾害风险等级划分。［结果］（1）重庆市雷电活动具有明显的空间分布特征,地闪密度大的区域主要集中在大娄山以北,大巴山以南,密度在2次/（km2·年）以上,局部密度大于4次/（km2·年）; （2）地闪强度大的区域主要位于重庆西部、中部以及西南部的綦江、南川等地。（3）极高风险区面积132万km2,占总面积的16%、高风险区面积478万km2,占总面积的58%、一般风险区面积214万km2,占总面积的26%; （4）大娄山以北,大巴山以南的地区以高风险和极高风险等级为主,其中主城、荣昌、永川、綦江、涪陵、垫江、梁平、万州等地大部地区风险等级达极高,大娄山区及渝东南地区以高风险等级为主,渝东北的城口、巫山、巫溪等县大部地区以一般风险等级为主。［结论］通过科学地划分雷电灾害风险等级,能为重庆市的雷电监测预警及风险管理提供理论支持。     

云南省雷电活动分布特征及对农村地区的影响分析

[目的]探讨雷电致灾因子对农村地区的影响,提出相应的防御措施,以期为加强农村地区雷电风险管理和应急处置提供技术依据。[方法]结合2013—2017年云南省近5年ADTD闪电定位监测数据和雷电灾害统计资料,分析云南省地闪活动时空分布特征,确定各地区雷电易发等级,运用数理统计方法研究农村雷电致灾成因和灾害分布规律。[结果]地闪活动是影响农村雷电灾害发生的主要因素,近5年农村雷电灾害占总雷灾起数的40. 61%,损失类型表现为雷击导致的人身伤亡损失,主要分布在农田、树下、山坡及水域附近等野外空旷区域。[结论]农村雷电灾害与地闪活动的时空分布存在较好的对应关系,还与孕灾环境、承灾体易损性紧密相关,通过完善农村地区防雷设施,加强防雷减灾科普宣传教育,实施农村防雷减灾示范工程等能够有效防御和减少农村雷灾损失。     

浙江省滑坡地质灾害风险地图制图综合研究

基于自然灾害风险制图自动综合的图层约束理论,结合模糊推理系统,从点状要素层面对浙江省滑坡灾害风险地图进行地图制图综合研究。以1995-2015年浙江省滑坡灾害数据为基础,根据浙江省滑坡灾害的特点,从致灾因子及孕灾环境角度考虑,选取滑坡灾害程度区划,地形坡度、地貌区划、年暴雨日数、多年均降水量作为制图约束图层。通过模糊推理系统对浙江省滑坡灾害风险进行综合评价,并以综合评价结果进行多尺度滑坡灾害风险地图制图综合。制图综合结果揭示了浙江省滑坡灾害高风险区—安吉、东阳、江山常山地区、丽水温州地区,且50%-60%的滑坡灾害集中在丽水温州地区。研究结果可以为浙江省滑坡灾害风险管理与决策提供科学参考依据。     

基于CLDAS内蒙古日光温室低温风险指数及灾害风险区划研究

[目的]低温冷害是影响北方日光温室生产的主要气象灾害,为提高投资回报率和节能减排,需精细化建立内蒙古日光温室低温风险指数和揭示日光温室低温灾害空间分布特征。[方法]文章通过不同类型日光温室内观测的气温数据与国家站气温数据建立日光温室最低气温预报模型。根据日光温室内种植果菜和叶菜的生长条件需求划定气象指标,使用CLDAS气温数据,建立内蒙古砖墙体和厚墙体两种类型日光温室分别种植果菜和叶菜的低温灾害风险指数模型并制作灾害风险区划。[结果]砖墙体和厚墙体种植果菜和叶菜的低风险区主要分布在内蒙古西部偏西地区,约占全区面积8.2%～21.2%;较低风险区主要分布在西部偏东和中部偏西地区,约占全区面积20.0%～29.0%;中、高风险区主要分布在内蒙古中部偏东及以东地区,约占全区面积的55.3%以上。[结论]在保证生产和兼顾成本的前提下,西部大部农区适宜建造砖墙体日光温室,中部及东部偏南以建造厚墙体日光温室为主,东部区建造日光温室需加强保温措施、选择耐寒作物或者冬季间断生产。     

基于农户视角的农业巨灾风险评估与测度

[目的]探索农业巨灾风险的有效评估与水平测量,既是"三农"风险管理的要求,也是加强农村防灾减灾能力建设的重要途径之一。[方法]文章以我国28个不同省份地区的651个村1 355户农户的入户调查数据和国家统计局统计数据作为样本,运用模糊层次分析法(FAHP)构建农业巨灾风险评估指标体系,对我国农业巨灾风险进行评估与测度。[结果]我国农业巨灾风险总体属于高风险等级,而区域风险分布差异较大,西部风险最高,中部居中,东部风险最小。其中,西部和中部区域的农业巨灾风险属于高风险,东部区域属于中等风险。东部区域在防灾减灾能力、承灾主体能力、孕灾环境水平、防灾减灾保障性等方面均优于中西部区域。[结论]研究认为,在影响农业巨灾风险的因素中,虽然客观致灾因子无法规避,但建设提高孕灾环境水平和防灾减灾能力,可降低农业巨灾的风险感知与风险程度;同时,培育风险文化和建设经济能降低风险脆弱性。     

河北省冬小麦—夏玉米干旱灾害风险评估

[目的]通过分析河北省冬小麦和夏玉米的干旱灾害风险的时空分布格局,从致灾因子危险性、承灾体暴露性、环境敏感性、防灾减灾能力4个因子出发确定10个指标,为河北省农业防旱抗灾工作提供科学支持。[方法]文章基于自然灾害理论,利用2000—2018年河北省气象站点数据,计算水分亏缺指数,并通过建立农作物减产率和水分亏缺指数的关系来确定不同干旱等级的临界阈值,建立基于信息扩散理论的干旱危险性评估模型。利用遥感数据以及统计年鉴数据,建立承灾体暴露性模型、环境敏感性模型和防灾减灾能力模型,在此基础上,对河北省冬小麦和夏玉米不同生育阶段进行干旱灾害综合风险评估。[结果]（1）将信息扩散模型应用于小样本事件中,弥补资料不足带来的缺陷,可对不同级别的干旱进行风险评估;（2）干旱发生程度以轻度干旱和中度干旱为主,发生严重干旱的概率极低,致灾因子是影响旱灾程度的关键因素;（3）冬小麦和夏玉米在不同生育阶段风险的空间分布是不均的,高风险区和中高风险区呈现零星点状分布,冀中和冀南综合风险比较高,防灾减灾能力在一定程度上缓解了旱灾对该区的影响力度,而对于冀东地区来说,承灾体的暴露性以及防灾减灾能力决定了旱灾对该区的...     

基于GIS的皖南地区暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划

[目的]开展对不同重现期暴雨淹没深度模拟研究,分析皖南地区不同重现期下暴雨洪涝灾害淹没情况和不同承灾体的风险区划情况,为皖南地区防洪减灾工作提供科学依据。[方法]文章采用算术平均值方法计算面雨量及雨型分布,通过广义极值分布函数拟合,得到拟合参数和不同重现期下日致洪面雨量,利用FloodArea模型计算暴雨淹没深度图谱。即利用皖南地区1961~2014年降水数据,结合人口、GDP及土地利用类型研究分析皖南地区暴雨洪涝灾害风险和区划。[结果]皖南地区各子流域暴雨日分布特征及致洪面雨量有很大区别,牧龙河、黄湓河等流域致灾暴雨普遍偏强,漳河、青弋江等流域致灾暴雨普遍偏弱。暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划的一致性表现为各类承灾体风险等级均呈现10年一遇和20年一遇重现期较小,50年一遇重现期中等,100年一遇重现期较大的特点;区域性体现在对3种承灾体空间分布差异明显,其中人口分布集中,GDP分布相对分散,建筑用地情况和人口分布基本吻合,耕地面积比人口和GDP更广泛。[结论]皖南地区暴雨洪涝灾害不同承灾体的风险区划呈现一致性和区域性特征,暴雨洪涝灾害不同重现期与人口密集区、经济发达地区、建筑用地、耕地附近的暴雨洪涝灾害风险等级呈现一致性特征。     

贵州省近10年地闪分布特征分析

[目的]为系统分析研究贵州省地闪活动规律。[方法]利用2008—2017年ADTD闪电定位监测资料,主要采用数理统计和分析方法,结合ArcGIS插值,[结果]贵州省年平均地闪频次为44.5153万次,负地闪占总地闪的95.61%,3—10月、15h开始至次日2h闪电发生频繁,负地闪月分布呈现“双峰”特征,正地闪月分布呈现“单峰”特征,正地闪比例与总地闪频数发展趋势相反,地闪密度呈明显的西高东低区域分布;年平均雷电流强度为41.14kA,12月、10h雷电流强度最强,02h^13h的平均雷电流强度明显大于14h至次日01h;雷电流强度主要集中在10~50kA,占总地闪数的79.21%,贵阳市平均总地闪雷电流强度最大,为45.32kA,在高海拔地区正地闪的平均强度随着海拔高度上升不断增加;总地闪平均陡度为10.350kA/μs,陡度在8.2kA/μs以上的地闪频次占总地闪频次的50%。[结论]分析得出了贵州省地闪频次、雷电流幅值的时空分布、陡度分布特征,得到了雷电流幅值累积概率公式。     

Price transmission between products at different stages of manufacturing in forest industries

The theory of demand and supply implies a positive relationship, or “price transmission” between the prices of products at different stages of manufacturing. This relationship was investigated with quarterly prices of softwood stumpage in the US South, and national prices of forest products, from 1977 to 2002. All prices, net of inflation, were found to be nonstationary and there was no evidence of co-integration between prices. Vector autogressive models, augmented by Granger causality tests and multiplier analysis showed that there was a one-to-one permanent positive response of the southern sawtimber stumpage price to a permanent change in the national lumber price. There was also a one-third permanent positive response of the national paper price to a permanent change in the national pulp price. There was no relation between regional pulpwood prices and national pulp or paper prices. When price transmission was significant, the full adjustment took about 2 years.     

Application of an ecosystem function framework to perceptions of community woodlands

Owners, local residents, government, and conservation organisations can express divergent preferences in the development and management of local woodlands. The perceptions of these four groups were examined, in the context of three community woodlands in Eastern England, using an ecosystem function framework. In a pilot study, residents were able to allocate a relative importance to woodland ecosystem services which were then related to “regulation”, “habitat”, and “production” or “information” functions. However residents also placed importance on negative services or “dis-services” associated with the woodland ecosystem. Therefore a fifth category of “dis-services” was included in the main survey which included 84 local residents, three woodland owners, three government institutions, and six representatives from conservation groups. Each of the four groups placed greatest importance on services associated with habitat (16–39% of the total importance) and information (30–50%) functions suggesting, in this example, mutual interest in the use of woodlands as a habitat or recreational resource. By contrast a potential area of difference was the particularly high importance placed by one owner on dis-services such as fly tipping. In addition the woodland owners placed higher importance (10–20%), than local residents and conservation groups (7–9%), on the productive services of the wood. This suggests a need for communication when production-related operations affect recreation. The ecosystem function framework appears to be a useful approach for highlighting potential tensions and areas of mutual interest in the management of semi-natural ecosystems.     

In Vino ‘No’ Veritas: impacts of fraud on wine imports in China

China is one of the largest wine importing countries in the world and is poised for continued import growth in the future. Increased wine purchases throughout China have given rise to persistent fraud where fake wines are packaged and sold with counterfeit contents and labels. For exporting countries like France, counterfeit wines displace market share, damage foreign brand reputation, and cause distrust in consumers who are aware of counterfeiting problems throughout the country. We examine the impact of fraudulent wine events (as measured by negative media reports) on Chinese wine demand differentiated by supplying country. We employ the Rotterdam demand system and a switching regression procedure to estimate import demand and compare results across different media variable specifications. Results consistently show that negative reports disproportionately affect French wine regardless of how the media variable is specified. This is not surprising because most fraudulent events involve French wine counterfeits.     

An evaluation framework for earthquake-responsive land administration

In recent years earthquakes and their secondary hazards have claimed the largest number of lives of all large natural disasters. Some of the world’s most earthquake-prone zones are also areas of high population density. The impact is magnified by vulnerability factors including non-enforcement of building codes, knowledge gaps, urban poverty and poor governance capacity to manage and reduce earthquake risks. Poor security of land tenure and property rights increases the vulnerability of people and affects their ability to respond to natural disasters.Earthquake recovery and reconstruction provides very significant challenges for land agencies, with these challenges differing from one country to the next due to differences in the local context. Drawing on contrasting case studies in Haiti, Nepal and New Zealand this paper identifies the common post-earthquake land administration functions and challenges that may apply to many contexts. These lessons provide land agencies and other key stakeholders with a summary of the challenges an earthquake poses for land administration at different post-disaster stages. We also discuss the policy and regulatory, institutional, operational and preparedness lessons for land administration. From these lessons we propose a framework for evaluating the earthquake-responsiveness of a land administration system. This framework can be used by a land agency in an earthquake prone region, or where an earthquake has recently occurred, to assess what challenges to land administration might occur in the event of an earthquake, and the preparedness of their land administration system.     

Agrarian Poverty,Nutrition and Economic Class – A Study of Gujarat,India

This paper analyses poverty and calorific undernourishment in the Indian state of Gujarat, where high and market‐led industrial growth has resulted in rapid economic improvement. The study is carried out through a combination of secondary and survey‐based data. We conclude that the neoliberal agenda of uncontrolled, outward‐looking growth has not resulted in significant reduction of poverty or malnourishment in rural areas. Furthermore, while land ownership is officially used as a proxy for wealth distribution, class position appears a better predictor of poverty status in the rural areas than landownership per se. At the policy level, there is a need to revive the agrarian economy and create new non‐agricultural assets, and the primary focus in the state must shift to the distribution of created assets rather than a single‐minded focus on growth.     

Does sustainable agricultural growth require a system of innovation? Evidence from Ghana and Burkina Faso

This paper tests the ‘systems of innovation’ hypothesis for a selection of crops in Ghana and Burkina Faso that have shown significant growth in production over an approximately 20-year period. The question is whether such growth can only occur if supported by a system of innovation. Using two indicators (a common understanding on objectives and priorities, and a high level of interactivity), we find little evidence for the existence of anything that might be considered a high functioning system of innovation.