Semi‐parametric Modelling of Investments in Heating Installations: The Case of the Dutch Glasshouse Industry

This paper applies a semi‐parametric approach to estimating a generalised model of investments in heating installations. The results suggest that marginal costs of investments in heating installations increase quickly at small investment levels, whereas the increase slows down at higher investment levels. Therefore, standard parametric adjustment cost models are probably biased such that they underestimate the costs of small investments and overestimate the costs of large investments. Results also show that investments in heating installations are very responsive to changes in energy prices. Therefore, an energy tax may be an effective instrument to encourage investments in new energy‐saving heating installations.     

Investment Spikes in Dutch Greenhouse Horticulture

The presence of investment cycles demonstrates the long‐run policy of firms investing in particular periods (investment spikes) with lower or zero investment levels in between, which contradicts the smooth pattern predicted by a convex adjustment model. This paper investigates the spells between investment spikes in a discrete‐time proportional hazard framework to estimate the probability of observing lumpy investment and factors underlying lumpy and intermittent patterns of investment. Duration models were estimated on two datasets: on an unbalanced panel and on average data of 10 ‘firm size’ groups of Dutch greenhouse firms over the period 1975–1999. Two specifications of the model were estimated: one includes only theoretically grounded variables, and the other specification is extended by empirically grounded variables. Theoretically based models can explain the occurrence of investment spikes. Both specifications of model show an investment cycle of six years. This is also confirmed for the average firm, which exhibits a higher hazard ratio in the 6th, 12–13th and 21st years of duration.     

ON-FARM FACTORS INFLUENCING INVESTMENT IN CROP SOWING MACHINERY*

Farmers in grain industries make important decisions about investment in crop sowing machinery. This paper shows how some on-farm factors affect profit-maximising levels of investment in crop sowing machinery. The paper examines the effect on optimal investment of discontinuities in sowing opportunities, varietal portfolios and soil portfolios.     

Does Capital Market Structure Affect Farm Investment? A Comparison using French and British Farm–Level Panel Data

This article considers whether differences in the structure of agriculture credit markets in France and the United Kingdom alters the investment sensitivity to financial variables particularly cash flow. Using two panel datasets of French and British farms, three approaches are used to test the sensitivity of investment to internal finance, an inventory investment model, a fundamental q –model, and Euler equations for machinery investment. The results suggest that the contrasting capital markets structures do induce differences in overall investment sensitivity to cash flow and its pattern across both farms with varying levels of collateral and between inventory and machinery investment.     

Investment in site-specific crop management under uncertainty: implications for nitrogen pollution control and environmental policy

This paper applies an option‐pricing model to analyze the impact of uncertainty about output prices and expectations of declining fixed costs on the optimal timing of investment in site‐specific crop management (SSCM). It also analyzes the extent to which the level of spatial variability in soil conditions can mitigate the value of waiting to invest in SSCM and influence the optimal timing of adoption and create a preference for custom hiring rather than owner purchase of equipment. Numerical simulations show that while the net present value (NPV) rule predicts that immediate adoption is profitable under most of the soil conditions considered here, recognition of the option value of investment indicates that it is preferable to delay investment in SSCM for at least 3 years unless average soil quality is high and the variability in soil quality and fertility is high. The use of the option value approach reveals that the value of waiting to invest in SSCM raises the cost‐share subsidy rates required to induce immediate adoption above the levels indicated by the NPV rule.     

THE EFFECT OF PRICE SUPPORT POLICIES ON AGRICULTURAL INVESTMENT,EMPLOYMENT, FARM INCOMES AND LAND VALUES IN THE U.K.

Agricultural price policy has a major impact on the input markets as well as the output markets and a model is developed to analyse the effects of changes in support levels on U.K. agricultural employment, earnings, investment and land prices. This paper describes the specification, estimation and evaluation of the model and simulates the effects of a one per cent increase in support prices. The main conclusions are that net investment would increase in the years following the rise by a maximum in the second year of £12m and by a cumulative total of £44m (representing an increase of about 0.4 per cent in the capital stock). Employment on the other hand, while rising at first, would subsequently fall to almost one per cent below its original level, and earnings of hired labour also fall slightly. Net farm income increases by around 10 per cent and this is capitalised into a similar increase in land values.     

黑龙江省土地承载力与农业可持续发展

确定一个地区的农业自然资源的承载力可为地区及全国的重大发展决策提供科学依据,黑龙江省土地承载潜力超过100万人的有11个县,承载潜力在50万－100万人的有27个市县,承载潜力20万－50万人的有26市县,承载潜力＜20万人的有10市县,人口承载密度在全省的分布总趋势是山区低于平原,承载密度较高的市县主要分布在松嫩平原,全省人口总体上未超载,承载率为0．71,还可供养1469．26万人,按12．10％的人口增长率计,中等水平投入和高水平分别在60年内和100年内人口不会超载。     

Climate change impacts on investment in crop sowing machinery*

A model of investment in crop sowing machinery is applied to wheat production under current and projected climatic conditions at several locations in south‐western Australia. The model includes yield responses to time of sowing at each location given current and projected climatic conditions. These yield relationships are based on wheat growth simulation modelling that in turn draws on data from a down‐scaled global circulation model. Wheat price distributions and cost of production data at each location, in combination with the time of sowing yield relationships are used to determine a farmer's optimal investment in crop sowing work rate under each climate regime. The key finding is that the impacts of climate change on profit distributions are often marked, yet mostly modest changes in investment in work rate form part of the profit‐maximising response to climate change. The investment response at high versus low rainfall locations mostly involves increases and decreases in work rates, respectively. However, changes to investment in work rate within a broadly similar rainfall region are not always uniform. The impacts of climate change on investments in work rate at a particular location are shown to require knowledge of several factors, especially how climate change alters the pattern of yield response to the time of sowing at that location.     

谈企业的对外投资风险及其规避

文章针对企业普遍存在的投资成功率低,投资效益低的问题,进行了投资失误原因分析,提出了规避投资风险的想法与措施.     

绿色城镇化进程中水环境治理PPP模式运行问题

分析中国城镇化进程中水环境污染及治理投资现状,得出PPP模式将在填补绿色城镇化所需资金缺口、推动社会投资方面发挥积极作用。总结PPP模式在水环境治理投资领域的新发展及具体应用,指出水环境治理投资PPP项目实践中存在各地管理水平不一、民营环保企业参与度低、投资回报机制不健全及法律服务体系不完善等问题。最后提出政府应规范水环境保护PPP项目采购标准,成立专门的PPP管理中心;合理设置社会资本进入门槛,科学构建项目交易制度;建立动态调整的收费定价及政府补贴机制;完善PPP法律服务体系等建议。     

地质勘查经费投入分析与建议

目前我国地质工作投入存在一些突出问题:地质工作规模总体上不适应新形势的需要,有效投入不足;公益性地质工作缺乏经常性工作经费投入、国家财政投入资金管理分散;油气勘查投入步入良性循环,但前期基础地质工作薄弱;非油气矿产勘查投入总体规模偏小,矿山、个人、外商投资没有大规模进入,矿产调查基础工作薄弱等。文章提出国家地质工作实行统一管理、政府要加大对公益性地质工作的投入、改善商业性矿产勘查投资环境,吸引社会资金投资矿产勘查等方面的若干建议。     

风险冲击对农村居民家庭相对贫困的影响——基于CFPS数据的实证分析

目的 试图从微观农户层面研究风险冲击对相对贫困的影响及作用路径,以期为增强农村居民家庭风险抵御能力、缓解相对贫困提供实证支撑。方法 文章基于中国家庭动态追踪调查（CFPS）数据,运用面板probit模型和固定效应模型实证分析风险冲击对农村居民家庭相对贫困的影响,用异质性分析和面板门槛回归模型探讨不同收入水平的农村居民家庭风险应对方式差异。结果 （1）风险冲击会增加农村居民家庭相对贫困的可能。其中,灾害冲击是导致农村居民家庭相对贫困的首要原因,其次是教育冲击和婚丧嫁娶、孩子出生等重大事件冲击,失业冲击和健康冲击的影响相对较小。（2）不同收入水平农村居民家庭的风险应对机制差异是导致相对贫困家庭无法摆脱相对贫困的重要原因。与高收入的农村居民家庭相比,低收入的农村居民家庭遭受风险冲击时会减少更多的农业生产投资,增加更少的人力资本投资,导致家庭现有的资源配置无法提升家庭未来的收入能力,使其囿于相对贫困无法脱离。结论 政府应构建更具韧性的国家治理体系、更具弹性的社会帮扶体系,在此基础上提高农村居民家庭的可持续生计能力,从而减少农村居民家庭陷入相对贫困的可能。     

试论商业性地质勘查投资风险及其控制

文章认为:商业性地质勘查投资与其他投资活动一样存在风险,并从不同的视角分析了几类商业性地质勘查投资风险,指出了防范和控制风险的几种方法。     

外商投资非油气矿产资源勘探的几个法律问题

文章就外商投资非油气矿产资源勘探中的投资定位、主体、国家审核程序、经营期限、出资、外国投资者退出、外国投资者回报等方面的法律问题作了探讨。指出现行外商投资法中的一些不明确或不适应矿产勘探的问题 ,为解决此类问题 ,文章提出了从五个方面针对外商投资非油气矿产勘探 ,对现行外商投资法律法规进行改进     

A real options analysis of coffee planting in Vietnam

Vietnam grew from an insignificant to the world's second largest coffee producer during the 1990s. To understand this growth, this article examines Vietnamese coffee growers' investment decisions using real options theory. The study finds that producers, with variable costs of 19 cents/lb and total cost of 29.3 cents/lb, would enter coffee production at a coffee price of 47 cents/lb and exit at a coffee price of 14 cents/lb. Most Vietnamese growers appear to be sufficiently efficient to continue producing coffee even at relatively depressed price levels.     

Tenants, Landlords, and Soil Conservation

It has long been argued that tenants tend to overexploit land, but this conventional wisdom has been derived largely without consideration of landlords' actions. We examine what happens when landlords can invest in durable conservation measures in addition to choosing rental contract terms. When tenants are risk neutral, landlords overinvest in conservation under cash rental contracts but can achieve first best levels of output and protection against land degradation when conservation investment is combined with share rental. When tenants are risk averse, the first best is unattainable. In this case, conservation investment combined with share rental results in output levels below the first best, while equilibrium conservation investment may be greater or less than the first best. These results suggest that contract form and conservation investments are likely made simultaneously, so that econometric studies of conservation practice adoption that treat rental status as exogenous are likely subject to bias.     

Social Organization,Civic Responsibility and Collective Action: Game Theory Models of Community Participation in Development Projects

This paper assesses the extent to which foreign direct investment (FDI) in developing countries crowds in or crowds out domestic investment. The core of the paper is the development of a theoretical model for investment that includes a FDI variable and its estimation and testing with panel data for the period 1971–2000 and the three decades involved. The model is run for 12 countries in each of three developing regions (Africa, Asia and Latin America). The results indicate that, in all three developing regions, FDI has, at best, left domestic investment unchanged, and that there are several sub-periods for specific regions where FDI displaces domestic investment. In particular, there seems to be crowding out of domestic investment by FDI in Latin America. If these results are in fact correct, they suggests the need for policies to make FDI more effective in enhancing domestic investment in developing countries. The conclusion is that the effects of FDI on domestic investment are by no means always favourable, that simplistic policies towards FDI are unlikely to be optimal and, foremost, that more attention needs to be paid to economic policies that foster the domestic component of total investment.     

Piloting a systematic framework for public investment in regional natural resource management: Dryland salinity in Australia

The Salinity Investment Framework (SIF3) is designed to help environmental managers make better policy decisions about protecting key assets under threat of dryland salinity, a major degradation problem in Australia. This study reports results from applying SIF3 in partnership with two regional organizations (in the states of Victoria and Western Australia) with contrasting institutional powers and structures. We also engaged relevant policy makers with a view to influencing national policy. Available knowledge, science, and data were used to develop region-specific recommendations for public investment in salinity management. SIF3 proved easy to apply, requiring minimal changes from its original version. Establishing trust and credibility with stakeholders was extremely important. More time was required to be spent on communicating what SIF3 was and what it would mean for stakeholders than in applying it in the catchments. In both regions, recommendations included making a clear distinction between localized assets (such as a particular wetland) and dispersed assets (such as agricultural land as a whole); more targeted investment in spatially identified localized assets; using a broader range of policy tools; basing recommendations on the levels of public and private net benefits; anticipating the adoptability of sustainable land-management practices; and formally integrating relevant scientific, economic and social information with community values. The differences between current action and recommendations were significant in both regions, particularly in Victoria. As a result of our work both regions have decided to implementing a similar asset-based approach covering various environmental threats in addition to dryland salinity. The research indicates that it is feasible to use decision frameworks such as SIF3 to improve the rigour of decision making by community-based environmental management organizations. A broader range of policy tools are needed for dryland salinity, with less reliance on extension and small grants, and more emphasis on intervention around key assets and investment in technology development. We have influenced policy makers to some extent at state level and nationally through discussion of SIF3 in a national inquiry, preparation of a policy paper for peak multi-government policy committees, briefings and provision of advice on policy design. Despite this, achieving significant policy change at the state and national levels remains difficult for a number of reasons. Governments give limited signals to environmental managers to achieve environmental outcomes, being more concerned with community participation objectives and political considerations. We hope for significant policy change with increased scrutiny about sound decision making and public accountability.     

林业上市公司科技创新的投入产出分析

基于分位数回归法和最小二乘法,对24家林业上市公司2012—2015年的科技创新投入产出数据构建的多元回归模型进行分析。结果表明:最小二乘法的分析结果显示在林业上市公司中,专利授权所占比例、无形资产所占比例与研发人员数量、研发投入金额、研发人员所占比例、研发投入所占比例之间均不存在显著的相关关系;而分位数回归法的分析结果显示在不同分位点下,自变量对专利授权所占比例、无形资产所占比例存在一定的显著影响。此外,针对部分林业上市公司存在科技创新意识薄弱投入稍显不足、专利授权所占比例和产出成果质量较低、科技创新投入产出效率不足以及研发人员和研发资金投入并不能确保科技创新产出增加的现象,提出增强科技创新意识、强化投入产出监管等建议。     

The efficiency of the Australian dairy processing industry

In this article we analyse trends in the economic performance of the dairy processing industry and evaluate the link between these trends and the deregulation of the industry. Using Stochastic Frontier Analysis to derive Malmquist total factor productivity estimates, we show that the industry exhibits a relatively high level of technical efficiency. Victoria, the major producing state, has been effectively on the frontier over the period studied. In recent years, the rapid expansion in capital investment that has attended the shift towards deregulation, has been accompanied by an apparent slowdown in both productivity growth and technical progress. There is also evidence of a convergence in productivity levels across states.