Edith Penrose and economics

This paper contains a constructive critique of the Penrose pictureof firm, comparing it with, on the one hand the Coase-Williamsontransactions-cost picture, and on the other with the author'sown growth model. It concludes that the Penrose theory doesnot at the end of the day quantitatively determine the growthrate of the firm and that the transactions-cost story does notat the end of the day determine the size of the firm. The author'sown model determine's the growth rate of the firm, but not thesize. If married to a stochastic process, the author's modelcontributes to the determinate, but the quantitative parametersin any one society at any one time, are not. As there is, however,a strong case that the administrative efficiency of firms hasno robust relationship to absolute size this indeterminacy maynot be economically significant. In other words, the staticefficiency of an economy is not sensitive to either the absolutesize distribution of firms or to their growth processes. Instead,the key contribution of firms' growth processes to social welfareprobably lies mainly in the realm of competitive dynamics. Interfirmcompetition for growth is also competition to innovation, àla Schumpeter.     

Hercules and Penrose

Penrose's The Theory of the Growth of the Firm is one of mostimportant modern contributions to the theory of the firm. Inthis paper we are concerned with her analysis of the HerculesPowder Company published separately in Business History Review.The Hercules paper is important because it provides a uniquecase analysis of Penrosean growth processes, and indeed becausethere is reason to believe that it may have had a strong influenceon the development of the book itself. Since Hercules is stilloperating today, it also constitutes an interesting living laboratorythat may allow us to explore whether it has continued to pursuePenrosean growth processes over the intervening years.     

Firms and industries in evolutionary economics: lessons from Marshall, Young, Steindl and Penrose

Evolutionary economists have tended to assess firms and industries separately, neglecting the role of their interaction in the process of economic growth and development. We trace the separation of firms and industries to the introduction of population thinking in the discipline of industrial economics, including some broadly evolutionary analyses. If researchers conflate a population of firms with an industry, they introduce “thin” means of relating firms to one another and to industries. Despite his device of the ‘representative firm’, Marshall develops “thick” means of relating firms to industries by means of their internal and external organizations. Penrose avoids the notion of industry by focussing on heterogeneous and potentially mobile firms. Young and Steindl develop mundane explanations of firms’ relations within groups and locate the impetus for economic growth in a poorly understood environment. We conclude that evolutionary economists should revisit firms’ boundaries, not in the sense of explaining the existence of firms but in a relating and communicating sense in which boundaries signify the selective means of firms’ relationships.     

Economic life, rights, and obligations: Perspectives from theological teleology

Even while acknowledging the autonomy of “laws” specific to economics, theology situates the view of economics as a “means-ends” science of human choices within an unavoidable overarching moral order. After all, economic life is merely part of a much larger personal quest for happiness. Thus, the efficient selection of means for particular ends necessarily takes place within the context of objective standards of economic rights and obligations as part of human nature. The teleological perspectives of theology add much to our understanding of economic life by providing the warrants for these rights and obligations.     

Start-ups, long- and short-term survivors, and their contribution to employment growth

This study documents that the survival of start-ups is central in explaining the relationship between entry and regional employment growth. Distinguishing between start-ups according to the period of their survival shows that the positive effect of new business formation on employment growth is mainly driven by those new businesses that are strong enough to remain in the market for a certain period of time. This result is especially pronounced for the relationship between the surviving start-ups and employment growth in incumbent businesses indicating that there are significantly positive indirect effects of new business formation on regional development. We draw conclusions for policy and make suggestions for further research.     

Second contribution to the ENE critique: Reply to Davidson,part 1

On first encounter, the ergodic/nonergodic (ENE) approach has apparent plausibility. Although concerned by some of its problems for many years, it was only after more concentrated reflection on both its parts and their combinations that I became aware of its manifold deficiencies, some of which I outlined in my previous critique (O’Donnell, 2014 ———. “A Critique of the Ergodic/Nonergodic Approach to Uncertainty.” Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 2014, 37 (2), 187–209.[Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). In this paper, facilitated by Davidson’s (2015b ———. “A Rejoinder to O’Donnell’s Critique of the Ergodic/Nonergodic Explanation of Keynes’s Concept of Uncertainty.” Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 2015b, 38, 1–18.[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) rejoinder, these criticisms are deepened, broadened, and strengthened. Because the debate deals with fundamental matters in several disciplines, a considerable amount of investigation, unpacking, and logical dissection is required to clarify the argumentation beneath the compressed and seemingly smooth surface of the ENE position. For this reason, my reply is divided into two parts. This contribution primarily examines the central role of framing in ENE arguments, and clarifies the various misunderstandings and misrepresentations to which it leads. The subsequent contribution provides more detailed discussion of mathematical, stochastic, and methodological issues.     

Political contribution caps and lobby formation: Theory and evidence

The perceived importance of “special interest group” money in election campaigns motivates widespread use of caps on allowable contributions. We present a bargaining model in which the effect of a cap that is not too stringent on the amount a lobby can contribute improves its bargaining position relative to the politician. It thus increases the payoff from lobbying, which will therefore increase the equilibrium number of lobbies when lobby formation is endogenous. Caps may then also increase aggregate contributions from lobbies and increase politically motivated government spending. We present empirical evidence from U.S. states that support various predictions of the model. We find a positive effect on the number of PACs formed from enacting laws constraining PAC contributions. Moreover, the estimated effect is non-linear, as predicted by the theoretical model. Very stringent caps reduce the number of PACs, but as the cap increases above a threshold level, the effect becomes positive. Contribution caps in the majority of U.S. states are above this threshold.     

面试作伪行为：概念、形成机制及影响因素

近些年,随着面试在人才选拔中的广泛应用,一些蓄意歪曲、虚假表现的欺骗性行为也应运而生,给组织带来了诸多负面影响。面试作伪的概念源自于印象管理,是多种因素共同作用的结果。其未来的相关研究应侧重于形成机制、干预措施、对组织的作用机制,以及跨文化比较研究。     

Micro and macro dynamics: Industry life cycles,inter-sector coordination and aggregate growth

Technological change directly affects economic growth by exploiting and exploring technological opportunities, thus determining productivity growth and income. However, technological change also affects the composition of the economic system, which itself constitutes an important prerequisite for economic growth. The first aim of this paper is to show that the growing variety of the economic system, determined by the emergence of new products and services and leading to new industrial sectors, can allow the long term continuation of economic development, even when the employment creating capacity of individual sectors falls. The second aim is to illustrate the impact of micro variables on the meso-level, that is, on the sectoral composition of an economy, as well as on its macro-economic performance.      

Budgetary institutions and fiscal discipline: Edmund Burke's insightful contribution

Recent developments in the political economy of public finance literature have focused on the features of budgetary institutions that facilitate budgetary discipline — a sub-discipline of constitutional economics. In this literature, there has been no attempt to trace the development of economic thought on the relationship between budgetary institutions and fiscal discipline. This may be because debt accumulation in peacetime is seen as a late twentieth-century phenomenon. As a result, Edmund Burke's contribution, in his speech ‘On Economical Reform’, seems to have been forgotten. This paper highlights Burke's contribution and identifies the extent to which it captures those features of budgetary institutions that are currently recognized as facilitating budgetary discipline.     

绿色社区成就绿色生活

绿色社区是指具备了一定的符合环保要求的硬件设施、建立了较完善的环境管理体系和公众参与机制的社区。其创建的根本目的是建设一个以人为本、健康优美的人居环境，建立一个公众积极参与的环保监督机制，提高社区的活力、凝聚力和向心力，培养一种大家关心社区、社区爱护大家的新风尚。     

Judgment change during Delphi-like procedures: The role of majority influence, expertise, and confidence

This study investigates individual opinion change and judgmental accuracy in Delphi-like groups. Results reveal that the accuracy of judgmental probability forecasts increases over Delphi rounds (in terms of proportion correct and appropriateness of confidence) when statistical summaries or written rationales are provided from other members of an individual's nominal group, but does not increase in a control iteration condition (without feedback). Additionally, subjects who gave more appropriate probability forecasts on the first round exhibited least opinion change, although measures of confidence were unrelated to opinion change. Results also show that majority opinion exerts strong opinion pull on minority opinion even when the majority favours an incorrect answer (irrespective of the nature of feedback provided). The implications of these results for the utility and conduct of the Delphi technique are discussed, in particular, with respect to selecting panellists and choosing an appropriate feedback format.     

Third contribution to the ergodic/nonergodic critique: Reply to Davidson,part 2

This second part of my reply to Davidson (2015 Davidson, P. “A Rejoinder to O'Donnell's Critique of the Ergodic/Nonergodic Explanation of Keynes's Concept of Uncertainty.” Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 2015, 38 (1), 1–18.[Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) discusses mathematical and statistical matters using a simple model of ergodicity whose properties do not match many of those asserted by ENE. It responds to Davidson's counterarguments against pre-infinity indeterminacy, examines the works of Billingsley, Uffink, and Malinvaud as cited by Davidson, and then turns to important methodological issues. As in Part 1 of my reply, Davidson's rejoinder helps make the critique stronger, deeper, and more relevant.     

Innovation, embeddedness and policy: evidence from life sciences in three UK regions

This paper draws upon a survey of the life science and biotechnology regions of Oxford, Central Scotland and South West England to examine the innovation and embeddedness traits of the regions. The insights into the compositional weaknesses and strengths of the regions suggest opportunities and threats for the future development of the UK's life sciences and biotechnology. The discussion moves forward debates on biotechnology, regional innovation, regional economic development and policy by posing research questions relating to the gap of knowledge of two under-researched regions, the need for a differentiated view of regions and a public policy approach tailored towards them, as well as the prospects of 'engineering' high-tech regions. Some of the highlighted policy challenges are common to the three regions, while others are region-specific and reflect the variations of regional make-up and stage of development.     

On the persistence of income shocks over the life cycle: Evidence,theory, and implications

How does the persistence of earnings change over the life cycle? Do workers at different ages face the same variance of idiosyncratic earnings shocks? This paper proposes a novel specification for residual earnings that allows for an age profile in the persistence and variance of labor income shocks. We show that the statistical model is identified, and we estimate it using Panel Study of Income Dynamics data. We find that shocks to earnings are only moderately persistent (around 0.75) for young workers. Persistence rises with age, up to unity, until midway through life. The variance of persistent shocks exhibits a U-shaped profile over the life cycle (with a minimum of 0.01 and a maximum of 0.05). These results suggest that the standard specification in the literature (with age-invariant persistence and variance) cannot capture the earnings dynamics of young workers. We also argue that a calibrated job turnover model can account for these nonflat profiles. The key idea is that workers sort into better jobs and settle down as they age; in turn, magnitudes of wage growth rates decline, thereby decreasing the variance of shocks. Furthermore, the decline in job mobility results in higher persistence. Finally, we investigate the implications of age profiles for consumption–savings behavior. The welfare cost of idiosyncratic risk implied by the age-dependent income process is up to 1.6 percent of lifetime consumption lower compared with its age-invariant counterpart. This difference is mostly due to a higher degree of consumption insurance for young workers, for whom persistence is moderate. These results suggest that age profiles of persistence and variances should be taken into account when calibrating life-cycle models.     

Poverty,economic stress and quality of life: lessons from the Irish case

The issue of multidimensionality is well established in poverty research, and it is generally recognised that income alone is inadequate as a measure of social inclusion or quality of life (QoL). However, social policy still tends to address the different dimensions of QoL—such as poverty, health, housing and social cohesion—in isolation. This raises the question of the variation across dimensions or groups in the extent of multidimensionality. For instance, are housing or health problems experienced by people with a range of other QoL problems, or do they tend to occur in isolation? Does this differ between social risk groups, such as lone parents, older adults or children? The answers have implications for the service needs of people with health problems or with inadequate housing. We address these issues in this paper, analysing the 2013 quality of life module on the EU-SILC data for Ireland and adapting the adjusted headcount ratio methodology of Alkire and Foster to address the issue of multidimensionality.     

Leading-by-example and signaling in voluntary contribution games: an experimental study

We report experimental results on the effect of leadership in a voluntary contribution game. Consistent with recent theories we find that leading-by-example increases contributions and earnings in an environment where a leader has private information about the returns from contributing (Hermalin in Am Econ Rev 88:1188–1206, 1998; Vesterlund in J Public Econ 87:627–657, 2003). In contrast the ability to lead-by-example has no effect on total contributions and earnings when such returns are commonly known. In our environment the success of leadership therefore appears to be driven by signaling rather than by nonpecuniary factors such as reciprocity. This paper was started while the authors were visiting the Harvard Business School during the fall of 2000. We are grateful for their hospitality and financial support. Vesterlund acknowledges support from the National Science Foundation and Potters from the Royal Netherlands’ Academy of Arts and Sciences. We thank Henrik Orzen for assistance in conducting the experiment. We also thank David Cooper and an anonymous referee who helped us improve the paper. Finally we thank Chris Anderson, Jim Andreoni, John Duffy, Simon Gaechter, Ernan Haruvy, Muriel Niederle, Jack Ochs, Elke Renner, Al Roth, participants at ESA-meetings (Barcelona, 2001), the Leadership and Social Interactions Workshop (Lyon, 2003), SITE (Stanford, 2004) and seminar participants at Alabama, CMU, Duke, Keele, Maryland, Nottingham, NYU, Pittsburgh, OSU, and York for valuable comments.     

Shadow prices,consistency and the value of life

This paper examines the consequences of inconsistent shadow pricing. The principal example of such inconsistency is the value of life/safety. Second-best shadow pricing policy is shown to depend upon how public sector budgets are allocated and the principle that public sector decision-makers should agree to a consistent shadow price is shown to require information unlikely to be available. A weaker consistency principle requiring minimal information is then developed.