Empirical analysis of the illiquidity premia of German real estate securities

Financial Markets and Portfolio Management - In this study, we analyze illiquidity premia and their effect on the expected returns of German real estate securities. To this end, we use a unique...     

Price reversal,transaction costs,and arbitrage profits in the real estate securities market

This paper studies the return reversals of exchange traded real estate securities using an arbitrage portfolio approach. Using the approach, we find that there exist significant return reversals in such securities. These return reversals could be exploited by arbitrage traders if trading costs can be ignored. However, the arbitrage profits disappear after deducting trading costs and taking into account the implicit cost of bid-ask spread. Thus, the real estate securities market is efficient at weekly intervals in the sense that one could not exploit the price reversals via some simple trading rules.     

Risk management of real estate: The case of real estate swaps

Real estate swaps are a recent financial innovation based upon the principle of comparative advantage. A real estate swap is a useful tool for real estate risk management and for participating in real estate investment without the high costs associated with real estate. Potential economic benefits and costs associated with real estate swaps are considered and real estate swaps are compared to alternative tools for real estate risk management. The expected utility and effectiveness of risk management with a swap in a multiperiod framework are analyzed. The analysis finds that the subject property's return and its risk characteristics (as reflected in its correlation with interest rate and property index returns) delimit the risk management potential of a given swap position. Optimal swap positions are shown for various regions and property types based on historical return series, from the period between 1983 and 1992, and the parameters of the dynamic model developed.     

International diversification with securitized real estate and the veiling glare from currency risk

This paper analyzes diversification benefits from international securitized real estate in a mixed-asset context. We apply regression-based mean-variance efficiency tests, conditional on currency-unhedged and fully hedged portfolios to account for systematic foreign exchange movements. From the perspective of a US investor, it is shown that, first, international diversification is superior to a US mixed-asset portfolio, second, adding international real estate to an already internationally diversified stock and bond portfolio results in a further significant improvement of the risk-return trade-off and, third, considering unhedged international assets could lead to biased asset allocation decisions not realizing the true diversification benefits from international assets.     

Franchising and real estate brokerage

This paper examines the value of franchise affiliation to real estate brokerage firms. It uses a national sample to estimate models of brokerage firm sales and revenues. The results suggest that franchisees sell more properties than nonaffiliates, but that the average franchise sale results in less revenue. The net benefit of franchise affiliation is a 9.0 percent increase in net revenue to the average firm. We compare the initial cost of affiliation with the benefits and find that the up-front fees charged by franchisors are substantially lower than the present value of the stream of incremental profits generated by franchise affiliation.     

Risk and return in real estate

Basic information is provided on the returns and risks from 1978 through 1985 for unleveraged equity real estate compared with stocks and bonds. Data sources include the Russell-NCREIF index, the Evaluation Associates index, and the Goldman Sachs equity real estate investment trust index. Findings reveal that the aggregate return for the publicly traded equity real estate investment trust index in nearly twice that of the other real estate series, and more than twice that of the Standard & Poor index. The equity real estate investment trust is far more volatile than the other two real estate series. Neither the Goldman Sachs nor the other two indexes exactly measure the returns or risks on equity real estate. The volatility of the equity real estate investment trust leads it to overstate the risk of this investment category, while the other two indexes are not return indexes. Estimates from this study indicate that real estate risk lies plausibly midway between that of stocks and bonds, in the 9 percent to 13 percent range.     

我的海外置业计划

在澳洲布里斯本中心的热带雨林花园里,30米高的瀑布在阳光下划出梦幻般的彩虹,一栋设计简约大方的公寓掩映其后,透过公寓宽大明亮的落地窗,花园全景一览无余.这是我在2002年以33万澳元(合人民币200万元)购买的期房,实用面积为150平米.     

The persistence of real estate cycles

This paper presents a model that attempts to explain the underlying causes of the prolonged cycles observed in real estate markets. In addition, the paper characterizes the features that make some property types more prone to such boom-and-bust behavior. The combination of demand uncertainty, adjustment costs, and construction lags leads to two phenomena that may help explain market persistence. The first phenomenon is the reluctance of owners to adjust occupancy levels, even in the face of large shifts in renter demand. The second phenomenon is the occurrence of periods of sustained overbuilding: the addition of new supply in the face of already high vacancy rates.     

Physician alignment strategies and real estate

When addressing locations of facilities after acquiring physician practices, hospitals should: Acknowledge the hospital's ambulatory plan is the driver rather than real estate assumed with the physician practices, Review the hospital ambulatory service plan for each submarket, Review the location of facilities within the service area and their proximity to one another, Sublease or sell existing facilities that are not appropriate, Ensure that the size and characteristics of each facility in the market are appropriate and consistent with the hospital's image.     

Lending behavior and real estate prices

The willingness of banks to provide funding for real estate purchases depends on the creditworthiness of borrowers. Besides other factors, this creditworthiness depends on the development of real estate prices. Real estate prices, in turn, depend on the demand for homes which is influenced by the supply of mortgages. I develop a theoretical model which explains this circular relationship. I show how different kinds of expectation formations can lead to fluctuations in real estate prices. Furthermore, I show that banks make above-average profits in the upswing phase of the real estate cycle but suffer high losses when the market turns.     

On the real estate market efficiency

This reseach reexamines the efficiency hypothesis of the real estate market using monthly data and the vector autoregressive (VAR) modelling technique. The tests focus on the causal linkage between real estate returns and a number of relevant financial and economic variables. An eight-by-eight VAR model is estimated using the FPE and the specific gravity criteria, in conjunction with an extensive series of specification tests. The empirical results distilled from system estimations suggest that the real estate market is efficient with respect to available information on the industrial production, the risk premia, the term structure of interest rates, and the monetary base. Movements in these variables are quickly and fully utilized by market agents, perhaps owing to the intensity with which their relationship with stock returns has been discussed in the literature and the popular media. However, the results also suggest the presence of a significant lagged relationship between real estate returns and fiscal policy moves, even when the paths through other potential determinants of these returns are taken into account. Of course, our finding that the fiscal policy measure is useful in predicting stock returns does not necessarily imply that the real estate market is inefficient. At a minimum, inefficiency is revealed only if a careful analysis of the budgetary process can help design a profitable (exploitable) trading strategy.     

加拿大房地产税的征管及特点

房地产税是加拿大最古老的税种之一,税基宽,税率低,是其地方政府财政收入的主要来源。加拿大建立了科学有效的房地产税估价制度,通过评税确定计税依据,计算机辅助批量评估系统也提高了评税工作效率,减少了地方财政负担,已经建成卓有成效的房地产税评估争端解决机制,保证了加拿大房地产税评税工作在100多年来能够逐渐走向成熟,并成为世界上许多转型国家效仿的典范。     

Jobs,location, and real estate

The decision to relocate has traditionally been based on job opportunities alone, with no attention paid to the real estate market. The cost of housing, its rate of return, and its specificity to a location do not enter the decision to move or stay. This article develops a more general definition of income, including real estate and labor markets. The null hypothesis is that relocation is based on comparing labor income differentials alone. The alternative is that income is more broadly based, including real estate returns. Estimates are provided in a quantal choice framework.     

Empirical tests of real estate market efficiency

Recent empirical research using real estate data has supported the weak and semi-strong forms of the efficient markets hypothesis. Previous studies have not included an estimate of expected appreciation into the tests of market efficiency, thus raising a question about the reliability of the results. We first use a market model to test for market efficiency with results similar to those reported by others. We next use a dynamic multiple indicator, multiple cause (DYMIMIC) model, which extracts a vector of expected appreciation from the price data, to test market efficiency. This approach produces superior results and a stronger conclusion about the efficiency of housing markets. The results indicate limited adjustment delays which can be explained by the existence of high transactions and search costs.     

Product market effects of real estate collateral

This paper exploits shocks to the value of real estate collateral to study how exogenous changes in firms' external financing capacity affect their competitive performance and industry dynamics. Firms with appreciating collateral tend to gain market share relative to their product market rivals. Shocks to collateral lead to less competitive product markets. The effects of collateral are stronger in markets where firms compete in strategic substitutes or face competitors with restricted access to external financing, and when real estate prices are instrumented with the interaction between housing supply constraints and mortgage rates. These results highlight the strategic importance of collateral.     

房企财务风险防范

只有对企业财务风险的表现形式进行分析,才能制定合理的财务风险防范措施和策略,建立短期和长期财务预警系统,为房地产企业科学发展奠定基础。     

美国房地产基金发展中的三次浪潮

房地产是需要大量融资的行业．所以房地产基金也应运而生。本文记述了美国房地产基金发展历史的几起几落     

Are real estate markets becoming more efficient?

This paper compares real rates of return to housing capital with returns to other forms of fixed reproducible capital. All data are from the national income and capital accounts and are gross of taxes and depreciation. Returns to housing capital have been consistently lower than those to other capital during the fifty-five year period for which data are available. Since 1950, the disparity between returns to housing and other capital has narrowed steadily and substantially. The paper presents speculations as to the reasons for the improvement in capital market efficiency.I am indebted to Robert Godrick and Daniel Siegel for comments on an earlier draft.