Who benefits from financial liberalization? Evidence from advanced and emerging market economies

In recent decades most countries have implemented significant reforms to foster financial liberalization. This article examines to what extent these reforms have benefited advanced economies and emerging market economies. We focus on four groups of countries: the G-7, other European countries, Latin America and East Asia over the period 1973–2006. We find evidence supporting the hypothesis that the different forms of financial liberalization affected growth differently in the four groups of countries. The main finding is that the benefits of financial liberalization are more important for advanced economies. In contrast, financial liberalization in emerging market economies has a weak positive impact on growth when its scope is limited, whereas full liberalization has been associated with slower economic growth.     

Does firm visibility matter to debtholders? Evidence from credit ratings

This paper investigates the role of a firm's information visibility in the assessment of its default risk. We use press coverage to proxy for firm visibility and find that highly visible firms generally have better credit ratings. The positive association between firm visibility and credit ratings arises because (1) press coverage facilitates the generation and dissemination of firm-specific information to market participants and (2) it disciplines the activities of managers and large shareholders. This positive association becomes stronger for firms with more severe information asymmetry or weaker alternative monitoring systems. Our findings contribute to the accounting literature by providing new evidence on the influence of firm visibility in the debt market.     

Are capital buffers pro-cyclical?: Evidence from Spanish panel data

We estimate the relationship between the Spanish business cycle and the capital buffers held by Spanish commercial and savings banks in an incomplete panel of institutions covering the period 1986–2000, which comprises a complete cycle. After controlling for other potential determinants of the surplus capital we find a robustly significant negative relationship between the position in the cycle and capital buffers. From a quantitative standpoint, an increase of 1 percentage point in GDP growth might reduce capital buffers by 17%. This relationship is, moreover, asymmetric, being closer during upturns.     

Is heterogeneous capital depreciation important for estimating firm-level productivity? Evidence from Chinese manufacturing firms

This paper contributes to the existing literature on estimating firm-level production functions. Using Chinese manufacturing survey data, we employ the firm-level heterogeneous capital depreciation rate to measure firms’ investment and assess its role using Olley and Pakes (1996) (OP) production function estimation technique. Although there is some ongoing debate on the econometric soundness of the OP technique, we argue quantitatively that the heterogeneous depreciation rate muffles the measurement error associated with the key input demand investment. In our sample, it significantly narrows the gap of total factor productivity (TFP) estimates between the OP technique and a state-of-the-art estimation method that works without investment. We further reveal that the improved performance primarily originates from the dynamic evolution in the distribution of the capital depreciation rate.     

Are credit ratings procyclical?

This paper studies the influence of the state of the business cycle on credit ratings. In particular, we assess whether rating agencies are excessively procyclical in their assignment of ratings. Our analysis is based on a model of ratings determination that takes into account factors that measure the business and financial risks of firms, in addition to indicators of macroeconomic conditions. Utilizing annual data on all US firms rated by Standard & Poor’s, we find that ratings do not generally exhibit excess sensitivity to the business cycle. In addition, we document that previously reported findings of a secular tightening of ratings standards are not robust to a more complete accounting of systematic changes to measures of risk.     

Does a manager's gender matter when accessing credit? Evidence from European data

Firms can be credit constrained either because a loan has been denied by the lender or because they decide not to apply for such a loan due to expected rejection. Using a large sample of European small and medium enterprises, we investigate the relationship between gender and credit constraints. Although no evidence is found that financial institutions are biased against female managers, female-run firms are less likely to file a loan application, as they anticipate being rejected. As a consequence, firms managed by women obtain less bank financing.     

Do some lenders have information advantages? Evidence from Japanese credit market data

Using detailed Japanese credit data, we test for the existence of a credit market hierarchy. Empirical tests indicate that firms with information problems are more likely to carry higher proportions of relationship loans from main banks than non-main banks, holding constant risk and control factors. We further examine credit specialization on the part of lenders by testing the relationship between client firms' information and risk characteristics and the concentration of loans obtained from depository institutions versus other financial institutions. However, no significant differences in information superiority between these two types of financial institutions are found. We conclude that our evidence supports the credit market hierarchy hypothesis for Japanese main banks in particular but not depository institutions in general.     

Does good governance matter to debtholders? Evidence from the credit ratings of Japanese firms

Consistent with existing evidence based on US firms, we show that good governance is associated with higher credit ratings. The most significant variables are institutional ownership and disclosure quality. This finding suggests that active monitoring (by large shareholders) and lower information asymmetry (through better disclosures) mitigate agency conflicts and reduce the risk to debtholders. Credit ratings are also found to increase with board size, consistent with a moderation effect in large decision-making groups. As a rule, firms are expected to benefit from better governance by being able to access funding at a lower cost and in larger amounts.     

Can machine learning models save capital for banks? Evidence from a Spanish credit portfolio

We study the impact of machine learning (ML) models for credit default prediction in the calculation of regulatory capital by financial institutions. We do so by using a unique and anonymized database from a major Spanish bank. We first compare the statistical performance of five models based on supervised learning like Logistic Lasso, Trees (CART), Random Forest, XGBoost and Deep Learning, with a well-known model like Logit. We measure the statistical performance through different metrics, and for different sample sizes and features available. We find that ML models outperform, even when relatively low amount of data is used. We then translate this statistical performance into economic impact by estimating the savings in capital when using an advanced ML model instead of a simpler one to compute the risk-weighted assets following the Internal Ratings Based (IRB) approach. Our benchmark results show that implementing XGBoost instead of Logistic Lasso could yield savings from 12.4% to 17% in terms of regulatory capital requirements.     

Do banks appraise internal capital markets during credit shocks? Evidence from the Greek crisis

Using data of bank loans to Greek firms during the Greek crisis we provide evidence that affiliated firms, having access to the internal capital markets of their associated group, are less likely to default on their loans. Furthermore, banks require lower loan collateral coverage from affiliated firms and are less likely to downgrade the affiliates’ credit profile. Finally, banks are more likely to show forbearance to affiliated firms with non-performing loans. The results are consistent with the view that banks manage their relationships with firms in a business group jointly, as opposed to viewing each firm as an independent entity. Our findings also suggest that the value of risk sharing through internal capital markets increases when external financing is scarce.     

Who benefits in a crisis? Evidence from hedge fund stock and option holdings

We use a unique data set of hedge fund long equity and equity option positions to investigate a significant lockup-related premium earned during the tech bubble (1999–2001) and financial crisis (2007–2009). Net fund flows are significantly greater among lockup funds during crisis and noncrisis periods. Managers of hedge funds with locked-up capital trade opportunistically against flow-motivated trades of non-lockup managers, consistent with a hypothesis of rent extraction in providing crisis era liquidity. The success of this opportunistic trading is concentrated during periods of high borrowing costs, in less liquid stock markets, and is enhanced by hedging in the equity option market.     

Does international experience of managers bring financing benefits? Evidence from the cost of equity capital

Using a sample of Chinese firms, this study examines whether and how managers’ overseas experience affects a firm’s cost of equity capital. We document a negative association between managers’ overseas experience and the cost of equity capital. Mechanism analyses indicate that companies with returnee managers have better information quality and lower systematic risk; more institutional investors, media reports, and analysts following; and higher stock liquidity, all of which lead to a lower cost of equity capital. Further analyses show that chief executive officers (CEOs) with foreign experience have a more significant impact on the cost of capital than non-CEO managers with foreign experience and that managers’ overseas work experience has a more significant impact on the cost of capital than their overseas education. We also find that the impact of managers’ overseas experience is more pronounced when that experience is gained in common law countries compared to code law countries but weaker for state-owned enterprises and firms that are cross-listed or have foreign institutional investors. Overall, the results suggest that managers’ knowledge, skills, and ethical values imprinted from overseas experience, plus eyeball effects from media and analyst attention, can reduce the cost of equity capital.     

Do multiple credit ratings reduce money left on the table? Evidence from U.S. IPOs

Using credit ratings as an uncertainty-reducing mechanism, we provide evidence of the beneficial impact of multiple credit ratings on reducing IPO underpricing and filing price revision. We find that the acquisition of multiple ratings in the pre-IPO period mitigates uncertainty more than the acquisition of a single rating. Multi-rated firms also have higher probabilities of survival than those with a single rating, whereas credit rating levels matter only for IPOs with more than one rating. The IPOs that are awarded the first rating on the borderline between investment and non-investment grades are more likely to seek an additional rating.     

Does stock market development always improve firm-level financing? Evidence from Tunisia

The question of whether or not increased stock market size allows for improved financing conditions for firms in emerging markets is an important one for policy-making. This paper seeks to investigate this issue by analyzing whether increases in market-level liquidity have indeed trickled down to individual firms over the last decade of stock market development in Tunisia, a fast-growing Mediterranean emerging market. We develop time varying liquidity scores for all firms listed in the Tunisian market over the 1997–2009 period and analyze the extent to which market development, firm-level characteristics and risk exposure affect the magnitude and the distribution of liquidity using a set of fixed effect panel regressions. Our results suggest that massive increases in value traded have created market congestion, thereby increasing the costs of trading, in a context of persistently low efficiency and increased international integration. The main implications of this process are (i) market-level development and international integration are not sufficient conditions to ease access to finance for local firms, (ii) further reforms in the Tunisian market should focus on diversifying corporate ownership and improving the disclosure of information, and (iii) international investors seeking diversification in Tunisia should be aware of a significant illiquidity risk.     

How did increased competition affect credit ratings?

The credit rating industry has historically been dominated by just two agencies, Moody's and Standard & Poor's, leading to long-standing legislative and regulatory calls for increased competition. The material entry of a third rating agency (Fitch) to the competitive landscape offers a unique experiment to empirically examine how increased competition affects the credit ratings market. What we find is relatively troubling. Specifically, we discover that increased competition from Fitch coincides with lower quality ratings from the incumbents: Rating levels went up, the correlation between ratings and market-implied yields fell, and the ability of ratings to predict default deteriorated. We offer several possible explanations for these findings that are linked to existing theories.     

Is the venture capital market liquid? Evidence from India

This paper models investment duration in the Indian venture capital (VC) market, by industry and exit route. We examined 3416 investment and exit transactions in India during the period 2000–2017 and found that the probability of staying invested for more than ten years was 70%. Exit probabilities were low in most sectors. Investment duration was not positively associated with the investment valuation; rather, it was impossible to exit from the majority of investments because of the illiquidity of the VC market.     

Does liberalization reduce agency costs? Evidence from the Indian banking sector

On February 16, 2002, the Reserve Bank of India issued a circular that signaled a policy liberalization facilitating acquisition of private sector banks in India by foreign entities. Portfolios of private sector and nationalized banks posted significant value gains in the days surrounding the announcement. The gains by private sector banks were almost double those of nationalized banks. We further analyze the firm specific abnormal returns using cross-sectional regressions and find a significant relation between firm-specific abnormal returns and factors typically associated with a bank’s potential for takeover. These results provide the first empirical support for Stulz’s hypothesis that one cause of the valuation gains associated with liberalization is the expected gain from a reduction of agency costs.     

Do capital flows change domestic credit allocation?

Since the 1990s, domestic bank credit has been reallocated away from lending to non-financial business and toward households. An expanding literature discusses negative effects on growth and stability of this change in credit allocation. We research its drivers. We hypothesize that if foreign capital flows into economies with few investment opportunities, it may substitute for domestic bank lending to non-financial business, so that bank balance sheets become more dominated by household lending. In GMM estimations on data for 36 economies over 1990–2011, we find evidence consistent with this mechanism. Foreign capital inflows into the non-bank sector (but not into the bank sector) are associated with lower shares of business lending in domestic bank portfolios. The association is weaker in economies with more investment opportunities, whether proxied by investment shares, current account surpluses, or EMU membership. Our results highlight the importance of sectoral destination in determining the effects of capital flows.     

Do bond credit ratings lead to excess comovement?

We investigate whether non-fundamental comovement results from investors using credit ratings to group assets into different “styles”. We find that bonds that join a new rating class start comoving more with the bonds in this class, even when fundamental factors suggest otherwise. We show that this comovement effect varies according to the nature of the bond considered, and the modalities of the rating action. Downgrades have a larger impact than upgrades, and rating reviews matter as much as actual movements. Finally, rating changes between grades BBB and BB, which lead bonds to be reclassified as either “high-yield” or “investment grade” assets, seem to be of particular importance.     

Does venture capital investment enhance corporate innovation? Evidence from Korea

We examine whether venture capital (VC) investment enhances corporate innovation in Korea. Using a matched sample of 802 firms from 1998 to 2012, we find that after the first round of VC investment, VC-backed firms are more innovative than non-VC-backed firms. Our results suggest that the positive influence of VC investment largely comes from the ability of VC firms to reduce information asymmetry between investors and ventures: VC funds managed by independent venture capitalists significantly enhance corporate innovation, whereas those managed by governmental venture capitalists do not. Furthermore, this positive influence becomes more pronounced where there is greater information asymmetry. Finally, we show that funds with profit-based compensation structures are more likely to encourage corporate innovation than those with fee-based compensation structures.