On the distributional effects of exchange rate fluctuations

How do exchange rate movements affect different sectors of an economy? We address this question in a simple general equilibrium model, stressing the different exposures of various sectors to foreign competition, an aspect ignored in earlier contributions. The impact of exchange rate shifts is highly heterogenous across sectors. While a depreciation leads to a substantial competitiveness and welfare gain for agents with a high exposure to foreign competition, agents facing mostly domestic competition are adversely affected.     

Money and exchange rates in the Grossman-Weiss-Rotemberg model

We analyze the impact of monetary policy on inflation, interest rates and exchange rates in a model with segmented asset markets developed by Grossman and Weiss (1983) and Rotemberg (1984, 1985). We find parameters for which real and nominal exchange rates in this model are (1) much more volatile than interest rates, inflation rates, and money growth rates, (2) highly correlated with each other, and (3) highly persistent. While this model fails to match the data in other important respects, it illustrates a potentially useful approach to modelling exchange rate behavior.     

Gauging exchange rate targeting

In this paper, we examine whether a monetary authority targets the exchange rate, per se, or instead simply appears to do so as it responds to the exchange rate and other variables in service to inflation and output targets. We combine data-rich estimation with a system of forward-looking equations in order to disentangle the possibilities. The combined approach reveals the potentially misleading nature of standard estimates of the extent of exchange rate and inflation targeting. We illustrate the approach by applying it to two de jure inflation targetters, Canada and Korea. In contrast to standard methods and much past work, we find that neither country targets its exchange rate; and, both are bona fide inflation targetters.     

Economic uncertainty and the influence of monetary policy

This paper explores if economic uncertainty alters the macroeconomic influence of monetary policy. We use several measures of U.S. economic uncertainty, and estimate their interaction with monetary policy shocks as identified through structural vector autoregressions. We find that U.S. monetary policy shocks affect economic activity less when uncertainty is high, in line with “real-option” effects from theory. Holding uncertainty constant, the effect on investment is approximately halved when uncertainty is in its top instead of its bottom decile.     

The fed and the term structure: Addressing simultaneity within a structural VAR model

This paper applies a new identification approach to estimate the contemporaneous relation between the term structure and monetary policy within a VAR framework. To achieve identification, we combine high-frequency Treasury futures and fed funds futures data with the VAR methodology. Results indicate that policy actions have a slope effect in the yield curve. We also find that the Fed responds to Treasury yields and that this response is stronger for the short and intermediate rates and less aggressive for long-yields. All estimated parameters are significant and robust to various model specifications.     

The impact of monetary policy on the exchange rate: A high frequency exchange rate puzzle in emerging economies

This study investigates the impact of monetary policy shocks on the exchange rates of Brazil, Mexico and Chile. We find that even a focus on 1 day exchange rate changes following policy events – which reduces the potential for reverse causality considerably – fails to lend support for the view that associates unexpected interest rate hikes with immediate appreciations. This lack of empirical backing for the predictions of standard open economy models persists irrespective of whether we use the US Dollar or effective exchange rates, whether changes in the policy rate that were followed by exchange rate interventions are excluded, whether “contaminated” events are dropped from the analysis or whether we allow for non-linearities. We argue that it is difficult to attribute this stronger version of the exchange rate puzzle to fiscal dominance, as unexpected rate increases are not associated with increases in risk premia, and similar results are obtained in the case of Chile – a country that has had the highest possible short-term credit rating since 1995 and a debt/GDP ratio below 10%.     

The impact of uncertainty on professional exchange rate forecasts

This paper analyzes the role of uncertainty on both exchange rate expectations and forecast errors of professionals for four major currencies based on survey data provided by FX4casts. We consider economic policy, macroeconomic, and financial uncertainty as well as disagreement among CPI inflation forecasters to account for different dimensions of uncertainty. Based on a Bayesian VAR approach, we observe that uncertainty effects on forecast errors of professionals turn out to be more significant compared to the adjustment of exchange rate expectations. Our findings are robust to different forecasting horizons and point to an unpredictable link between exchange rates and fundamentals. Furthermore, we illustrate the importance of considering common unpredictable components for a large number of variables. We also focus on the post-crisis period and the relationship between uncertainty and disagreement among exchange rate forecasters and identify a strong relationship between them.     

Nonlinear prediction of exchange rates with monetary fundamentals

This paper employs a neural network (NN) to study the nonlinear predictability of exchange rates for four currencies at the 1-, 6- and 12-month forecast horizons. We find that our neural network model with market fundamentals cannot beat the random walk (RW) in out-of-sample forecast accuracy, although it occasionally shows a limited market-timing ability. The neural network model without monetary fundamentals forecasts somewhat better for the British pound and the Canadian dollar. The model also exhibits some market-timing ability for the Deutsche mark at the 6- and 12-month horizons, and for the Canadian dollar at the 1-month horizon. In general, the model performs more poorly when it becomes more complex or when the forecast horizon lengthens. Our overall results are more on the negative side and suggest that neither nonlinearity nor market fundamentals appear to be very important in improving exchange rate forecast for the chosen horizons.     

The role of house prices in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in small open economies

We analyse the role of house prices in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Norway, Sweden and the UK, using structural VARs. A solution is proposed to the endogeneity problem of identifying shocks to interest rates and house prices by using a combination of short-run and long-run (neutrality) restrictions. By allowing the interest rate and house prices to react simultaneously to news, we find the role of house prices in the monetary transmission mechanism to increase considerably. In particular, house prices react immediately and strongly to a monetary policy shock. Furthermore, the fall in house prices enhances the negative response in output and consumer price inflation that has traditionally been found in the conventional literature. Moreover, we find that the interest rate responds systematically to a change in house prices. However, the strength and timing of response varies between the countries, suggesting that housing may play a different role in the monetary policy setting.     

Home country macroeconomic factors on outward cross-border mergers and acquisitions: Evidence from the UK

In this paper, we examine the dynamic effects of key macroeconomic factors on the UK crossborder mergers and acquisitions (CBM&A) outflows over the period 1987–2008. Using a seven variable vector autoregressive/vector error correction models (VAR/VECM), the study finds that a number of home country macroeconomic variables, including GDP, broad money supply, stock prices and real effective exchange rate exert a positive and significant influence in explaining the CBM&A outflows by the UK firms. However, inflation rates and interest rates tend to have a negative impact on the volume of CBM&A. The findings support the notion that home country macroeconomic factors can create advantages to improve the outward Cross-border M&A activities.     

Global asset prices and FOMC announcements

This paper analyzes the impact of U.S. monetary policy announcement surprises on foreign equity indexes, short- and long-term interest rates, and exchange rates in 49 countries. We use two proxies for monetary policy surprises: the surprise change to the current target federal funds rate (target surprise) and the revision to the expected path of future monetary policy (path surprise). We find that different asset classes respond to different components of the monetary policy surprises. Global equity indexes respond mainly to the target surprise; exchange rates and long-term interest rates respond mainly to the path surprise; and short-term interest rates respond to both surprises. On average, a hypothetical surprise 25-basis-point cut in the federal funds target rate is associated with about a 1 percent increase in foreign equity indexes and a 5 basis point decline in foreign short-term interest rates. A surprise 25-basis-point downward revision in the expected path of future policy is associated with about a ½ percent decline in the exchange value of the dollar against foreign currencies and 5 and 8 basis point declines in short- and long-term interest rates, respectively. We also find that asset prices’ responses to FOMC announcements vary greatly across countries, and that these cross-country variations in the response are related to a country’s exchange rate regime. Equity indexes and interest rates in countries with a less flexible exchange rate regime respond more to U.S. monetary policy surprises. In addition, the cross-country variation in the equity market response is strongly related to the percentage of each country’s equity market capitalization owned by U.S. investors. This result suggests that investors’ asset holdings may play a role in transmitting monetary policy surprises across countries.     

The scapegoat theory of exchange rates: the first tests

The scapegoat theory of exchange rates (Bacchetta and van Wincoop, 2004, Bacchetta and van Wincoop, 2013) suggests that market participants may attach excessive weight to individual economic fundamentals, which are picked as “scapegoats” to rationalize observed currency fluctuations at times when exchange rates are driven by unobservable shocks. Using novel survey data that directly measure foreign exchange scapegoats for 12 exchange rates, we find empirical evidence that supports the scapegoat theory. The resulting models explain a large fraction of the variation and directional changes in exchange rates in sample, although their out-of-sample forecasting performance is mixed.     

Macroeconomic shocks, structural change and real exchange rates: Evidence from historical data

We present empirical evidence on the forces driving real exchange rates in the long-run. Using data from the US, UK and Italy across different exchange rate regimes, we find support for the hypothesis that productivity and fiscal shocks matter. However, in some cases fiscal shocks cause depreciations, likely triggered by the monetary accommodation of fiscal shocks. We also find that the traditional Harrod–Balassa–Samuelson effect of productivity on real exchange rates is reversed in some cases, which confirms the importance of the distributive sector in driving productivity gains.     

U.S. real exchange rate fluctuations and relative price fluctuations

Traditional theory attributes fluctuations in real exchange rates to changes in the relative price of nontraded goods. This paper studies the relation between the United States’ bilateral real exchange rate and the associated bilateral relative price of nontraded goods for five of its most important trade relationships. We find that this relation depends crucially on the choice of price series used to measure relative prices and on the choice of trade partner. The relation is stronger when we measure relative prices using producer prices rather than consumer prices. The relation is stronger the more important is the trade relationship between the United States and a trade partner. Even in cases where there is a strong relation between the real exchange rate and the relative price of nontraded goods, however, a large fraction of real exchange rate fluctuations is due to deviations from the law of one price for traded goods.     

Central bank interventions and implied exchange rate correlations

This paper examines the effects of the foreign exchange market interventions by the Bank of Japan on the ex ante correlations between the JPY/USD, EUR/USD, and GBP/USD exchange rates. The correlation estimates used in the analysis are derived from the market prices of OTC currency options. The results show that central bank interventions significantly affect the market expectations about future exchange rate co-movements. In particular, we find that interventions tend to temporarily increase the ex ante correlations among the major exchange rates. However, our results also suggest that intervention episodes are associated with lower-than-average levels of exchange rate correlations.     

Cointegration and forward and spot exchange rate regressions

We investigate the relationship between cointegration models of the current spot exchange rate, s_t, and the current forward rate, f_t, and cointegration models of the future spot rate, s_t+1, and f_t and the implications of this relationship for tests of the forward rate unbiasedness hypothesis (FRUH). We show that simple models of cointegration between s_t and f_t imply complicated models of cointegration between s_t+1 and f_t. Consequently, standard methods are often inappropriate for modeling the cointegrated behavior of (s_t+1, f_t)′ and we show that the use of such methods can lead to erroneous inferences regarding the FRUH.     

Inflation targeting in Brazil: constructing credibility under exchange rate volatility

This paper assesses the challenges faced by the inflation-targeting regime in Brazil. The inflation-targeting framework has played a critical role in macroeconomic stabilization. We stress two important challenges: construction of credibility and exchange rate volatility. The estimations indicate the following results: (i) the inflation targets have worked as an important coordinator of expectations; (ii) the Central Bank has reacted strongly to inflation expectations; (iii) there has been a reduction in the degree of inflation persistence; and (iv) the exchange rate pass-through for “administered or monitored” prices is two times higher than for “market” prices.     

Exchange rate fluctuations, financing constraints, hedging, and exports: Evidence from firm level data

This paper examines whether exchange rate fluctuations are significantly related to the export quantities of firms. We build a simultaneous structural model with external financing costs, and estimate the model on 14 separate Japanese four-digit level industries. We find that export volumes at the firm level are significantly affected by exchange rate fluctuations. We find higher elasticities of exports with respect to exchange rates than in previous work. Our results cast some doubt on the prevailing wisdom that exchange rates have no effect on trade. Finally, we find in our data that financing constraints play an important role in affecting the sensitivity of exports to exchange rate fluctuations. Firms that are less financially constrained tend to have lower exchange rate elasticities, which is consistent with our model.     

Twin deficits and the sustainability of public debt and exchange rate policies in Lebanon

This paper examines empirically using time series econometric models the sustainability of public debt and exchange rate policies, as well as, the relationship between current account and budget deficits in the emerging small open economy of Lebanon. The empirical results point to unsustainable debt and exchange rate policies. Other empirical results support the existence of a uni-directional causal relationship, in the short run, between the budget and current account deficits, indicating that rising fiscal deficits have started to put even more strain on the current account deficits and on the national public debt. To avoid a future depreciation of the exchange rate and perhaps a fiscal and currency crises, the government will have to timely introduce austerity measures to curb the negative implications of its rising budget and current account deficits and debt on Lebanon's economy.     

International order flows: Explaining equity and exchange rate returns

Macroeconomic models of equity and exchange rate returns perform poorly at high frequencies. The proportion of daily returns that these models explain is essentially zero. Instead of relying on macroeconomic determinants, we model equity price and exchange rate behavior based on a concept from microstructure–order flow. The international order flows are derived from belief changes of different investor groups in a two-country setting. We obtain a structural relationship between equity returns, exchange rate returns and their relationship to home and foreign equity market order flow. To test the model we construct daily aggregate order flow data from 800 million equity trades in the U.S. and France from 1999 to 2003. Almost 60% of the daily returns in the S&P100 index are explained jointly by exchange rate returns and aggregate order flows in both markets. As predicted by the model, daily exchange rate returns and order flow into the French market have significant incremental explanatory power for the daily S&P returns. The model implications are also validated for intraday returns.