The determinants of vulnerability to the global financial crisis 2008 to 2009: Credit growth and other sources of risk

In this paper, we identify initial macroeconomic and financial market conditions that help explain the distinct response of the real economy of a particular country to the recent global financial crisis. Using four measures of crisis severity, we examine a data set with over 90 potential explanatory factors employing techniques that are robust to model uncertainty. Four findings are of particular note. First, we find empirical evidence for the pivotal role of pre-crisis credit growth in shaping the real economy's response to the crisis. Specifically, a 1% increase in pre-crisis lending translates into a 0.2% increase in the cumulative loss in real output. Moreover, the combination of pronounced growth in lending ahead of the crisis and the country's exposure to external funding from advanced economies is shown to intensify the real downturn. Economies with booming real activity before the crisis are found to be less resilient to the global shock. Buoyant growth in real GDP in parallel with strong growth of credit particularly exacerbated the effects of the recent crisis on the real economy. Finally, we provide empirical evidence on the importance of holding international reserves in explaining the response of the real economy to the crisis. The accumulation of international reserves mitigated the harmful effects of financial stress on the real economy, in particular when domestic funding via credit is abundant. The results are shown to be robust to several estimation techniques, including those allowing for cross-country spillovers.     

The Effects of Oil Price on the Korean Economy: A Global VAR Approach

This article empirically explores the effects of oil price on the Korean economy using a Global VAR model. First, we evaluate the average connectedness of oil price with the Korean domestic variables over the precrisis period. We then investigate the time-varying contribution of oil price to the Korean financial and real sectors during and after the global financial crisis through recursive estimation. It is found that the contribution of oil price becomes very large in the case of real exports, equity prices, and real output, but plays a much less prevalent role in the remaining cases. In the meantime, the time-varying contribution of oil price to the Korean economy has not changed during and after the global financial crisis. Interestingly, we find that the Korean economy is affected mostly by overseas financial conditions in the short-term but it becomes more susceptible to oil price fluctuations in the long run, suggesting that Korea’s reliance on energy imports leaves the economy exposed to volatility in energy prices.     

Capital and credit market integration and real economic contagion during the global financial crisis

This study investigates the role of financial integration in the spread of global financial crisis. In particular, this study shows how the effect of the crisis on real business cycle co-movement varied for capital and credit market integration, using a sample of 58 countries in 2001–2013. During the global financial crisis, the United States – the epicenter of the crisis – experienced a severe downturn in the real economy, and other countries followed suit. We find that during the global financial crisis, the business cycle co-movements between the United States and the rest of the world were stronger when the level of capital market integration between them was higher. However, the co-movements were weaker when the level of credit market integration was higher. These findings are robust even when including investment channels, local fundamental factors, endogenous policy responses across countries, and alternative measures for financial integration and business cycle co-movements.     

Loan supply shocks during the financial crisis: Evidence for the Euro area

This paper employs a panel vector autoregressive model for the member countries of the Euro Area to explore the role of banks during the slump of the real economy that followed the financial crisis. In particular, we seek to quantify the macroeconomic effects of adverse loan supply shocks, which are identified using sign restrictions. We find that loan supply shocks significantly contributed to the evolution of the loan volume and real GDP growth in all member countries during the financial crisis. However, concerning both, the timing and the magnitude of the shocks our results also indicate that the Euro Area was characterized by a considerable degree of cross-country heterogeneity.     

Fair value accounting,fragile bank balance sheets and crisis: A model

A topic of recent interest in accounting research has been the investigation of the role of fair value accounting (FVA) in the global financial crisis. This research focused on finding a link during the crisis time-period and often states that “accounting is only a messenger”. The model presented in this paper emphasises finding the link before the crisis and “accounting as money.” Use is made of an accounting model of the economy due to the inability of standard models of monetary transmission to incorporate global financial crisis characteristics such as feedback effects, systemic risk and the centrality of the financial sector in the crisis. The model shows FVA in banks to be an accelerator that amplifies the financial cycle upswing. Feedback effects noted in the model include changes in the demand for financial instruments and changes in demand in the real economy. Minsky-like, crisis is shown to be endogenous to the model, working through the fragility of balance sheets in the real sector as well as in the financial sector. Bank balance sheet fragility is caused by bad capital driving out good capital, banks reaching for yield and the inversion of the yield curve. The model shows that the practice of not meeting rising credit demand with increasing credit supply is an essential control mechanism in the financial cycle.     

Cooperative financial institutions: A review of the literature

Financial cooperatives play an important role in the financial systems of many countries. They act as a safe haven for deposits and are major sources of credit for households and small- and medium-sized firms. A not-for-profit orientation (in many cases) and a focus on maximising benefits to members have ensured the enduring popularity and sustainability of financial cooperatives. This is particularly evident since the global financial crisis when financial cooperatives continued to extend credit to members as many profit-orientated commercial banks restricted credit to households and firms. The overarching theme of the first part of this review is the structural and behavioural characteristics of financial cooperatives. In this part we consider, the origin and diffusion of financial cooperatives, network arrangements, the business model, relationship banking, balancing the interest of members, tax treatment and regulatory framework. The second part has performance and contribution to the real economy as the overarching theme. In this part we consider, efficiency and sustainability, mergers, acquisitions and failures, the benefits (and challenges) of FinTech and the contribution of financial cooperatives to the real economy including during times of crisis. The paper concludes with a summary of what we now know (and do not know) about financial cooperatives and provides suggestions as to where future research may usefully concentrate.     

UK imports,third country effect and the global financial crisis: Evidence from the asymmetric ARDL method

This paper examines the role of exchange rate volatility in determining real imports. As a robustness check, it further explores the impact of the recent global financial crisis which is a period characterized by heightened exchange rate volatility. More specifically, we investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility on UK real imports from Germany, Japan and the US during the period January 1991–March 2013. In contrast to most studies which focus on bilateral trade, we additionally explore the third country exchange rate volatility effect on UK imports. To capture the nonlinear features which often characterize macroeconomic data, we employ the asymmetric autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration. Our results suggest that exchange rate volatility plays an important role and reveal that there is a significant effect of the recent financial crisis on UK imports. This finding is consistent when we test for the third country volatility effect. Finally, we find that there is a significant causal relationship between exchange rate volatility and UK imports both in bilateral tests and in tests which account for the third country exchange rate volatility.     

The run-up to the global financial crisis: A longer historical view of financial liberalization,capital inflows,and asset bubbles

Using forecast error and sensitivity analyses with a vector error correction model for the US economy, we find that the specific exogenous shocks that contributed to the run-up to the global financial crisis of 2007–2009 vary across the three time periods (1980–1988; 1989–1997; and 1998–2006) that are known for distinctive historical events. Deregulation in the 1980s and capital inflows in the early and mid-1990s triggered by the collapse of the European exchange rate mechanism contributed significantly to changes in real house prices. However, capital inflows after the Asian financial crises in 1997 were driven in large part by rising asset prices. Thus, there were interesting changes in the nature of exogenous shocks and directions of causality through the three sub-periods. These results are robust even after controlling for the exogenous global factors partly determining short-run changes in capital flows, asset prices, and per capita real GDP. We conclude that all of the short run changes in response to financial deregulation starting in the 1980s, surges in capital inflows in the early 1990s, and people's expectation of ever-rising asset prices in the late 1990s and early 2000s culminated in the crisis of 2007–2009.     

The roles of financial asset market failure denial and the economic crisis: Reflections on accounting and financial theories and practices

Throughout the world every economic and socio-economic indicator has deteriorated. The so-called ‘real economy’ has been deeply contaminated by the most significant global financial crisis for seven decades. The ultimate extent and duration of this rampant degeneration and its longer-term political effects are unpredictable but what caused the crisis? This paper examines a range of suppositions made in theories which deny the possibility of financial asset market failure and identifies ways in which they contributed to the circumstances and actions which created the current crisis.     

准确把握危机影响 趋利避害科学发展

由美国次贷危机引发了全球性的金融危机,这一危机对世界实体经济和政治格局等都产生了重要影响。本文从多个方面对金融危机产生的原因进行了分析,探讨了金融危机对我国的影响,并从科学发展的角度提出了应对政策建议。     

金融周期对房地产价格的影响——基于SV-TVP-VAR模型的实证研究

本文利用2004-2016年的季度数据构建金融周期综合指数,用以描述金融市场景气程度;使用SV-TVP-VAR模型,围绕金融周期对我国房地产价格的影响进行实证研究。结果表明,金融周期对房地产价格的影响具有明显的时变性特征:2008年以前金融市场繁荣对房价有稳定推升作用,2008年后该影响持续弱化;与之类似,实体经济对房价的影响同样自2008年起逐渐减小。这意味着,在经济增长方式转变和经济结构调整的过程中,我国房地产价格对经济金融冲击的敏感度已经大幅下降,金融扩张可能难以再通过房地产市场有效带动实体经济的繁荣,相反,其反而可能导致银行贷款不良率的攀升,在金融系统内积累系统性风险。我国针对房地产的宏观调控政策不仅对控制贷款不良率的提高体现出积极作用,而且自2008年国际金融危机以来,产出及房价的随机波动率均呈显著下降趋势,风险得到有效控制。未来应更加重视房地产市场调控在宏观审慎政策框架中的重要地位,遏制房地产金融化泡沫化势头,防范房地产市场引发金融危机。     

Credit crunch in a small open economy

We construct an open-economy DSGE model with a banking sector to analyze the impact of the recent credit crunch on a small open economy. In our model the banking sector operates under monopolistic competition, collects deposits and grants collateralized loans. Collateral effects amplify monetary policy actions, interest rate stickiness dampens the transmission of interest rates, and financial shocks generate non-negligible real and nominal effects. As an application we estimate the model for Poland-a typical small open economy. According to the results, financial shocks had a substantial, though not overwhelming, impact on the Polish economy during the 2008/09 crisis, lowering GDP by approximately 1.5 percent.     

An open-economy macro-finance model of international interdependence: The OECD,US and the UK

This paper develops a multi-country macro-finance model to study international economic and financial linkages. This approach models the economy and financial markets jointly using both types of data to throw light on such issues. The world economy is modelled using data for the US and aggregate OECD economies as well as the US Treasury bond market using latent variables to represent a common inflation trend and a US real interest rate factor. We find strong evidence of global effects on both the US and UK, calling into question the standard closed economy macro-finance specification. These economic linkages also help to explain the co-movement of yields in the US and UK Treasury bond markets.     

中国金融扩张下的本土企业创新效应——基于倒U型关系的一个解释

2005年后,我国金融发展呈现出相对持续扩张和地区异质性两个核心特征,基于此,本文针对2005-2016年中国各省份地区金融业增加值占GDP比重持续扩张对本土企业创新活动的影响效应进行实证研究发现:金融业增加值占GDP比重持续扩张与本土企业创新投入呈稳定的倒U型关系,从而验证了我国各省份地区金融扩张对地区内微观企业创新活动造成两面性影响效应这一基本事实。具体而言,其抑制效应主要作用于31.55%的本土企业、尤其体现在45.98%的私人所有性质企业创新活动方面。从企业内源和外源创新活动的细分角度看,我国各省份地区的金融扩张对31.38%的本土企业以及55.66%的私人所有性质企业的内源创新活动产生了显著抑制效应。而对企业外源创新活动所产生的抑制作用,则主要体现在独立法人和私人所有性质为主的民营企业方面。本文的一系列经验发现,为协调实现中国金融业增加值占GDP比重合理扩张与促进本土企业自主创新能力提升的战略目标,提供了独特的经验证据,可为进一步推进我国金融体制改革提供有益参考。     

The performance of banks in the MENA region during the global financial crisis

This paper examines the impact of the global financial crisis on the banking sector in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, as well as the main determinants of the profitability of both domestic and foreign banks. The empirical findings suggest that during the crisis the former outperformed the latter in that region. As for the determinants of profitability, size does not appear to play a role, whilst the liquidity ratio and net interest revenues seem to have a negative and positive effect respectively; GDP has a positive effect in the case of domestic banks.     

国际金融危机下证券公司价值增值研究

在国际金融危机下,生产过剩和金融过剩导致经济疲软,证券市场也表现为顺周期效应。中国大多数证券公司业务经营存在同质化倾向,中国证券市场的逐步开放并没有改变这种状况,而金融危机的冲击及伴随的金融监管强化使证券公司经营模式更加单一。因此,在公司内部,一方面应适当促进产业集中形成规模经济和范围经济,另一方面应培育证券公司的核心竞争力;在公司外部,应完善公司外部环境治理,构建证券公司增值及可持续发展的法律和税收体系。     

2008年广西壮族自治区金融稳定报告

2008年,广西生产总值保持2002年以来的两位数增长速度,银行业呈现平稳快速发展,证券业运行保持平稳,保险业整体实力显著提高,金融改革继续提速,金融市场日益完善,金融基础设施建设取得新进展.但日前国际金融危机尚未见底.金融危机对广西实体经济的冲击不容忽视,金融机构的稳健经营面临严峻挑战.今后一段时间我们仍需密切关注金融危机从实体经济进一步蔓延到金融领域的风险.     

The effects of news events on market contagion: Evidence from the 2007–2009 financial crisis

In this paper, we use the quantile regression technique along with coexceedance, a contagion measure, to assess the extent to which news events contribute to contagion in the stock markets during the crisis period between 2007 and 2009. Studies have shown that, not only the subprime crisis leads to a global recession, but the effects on the global stock markets have also been significant. We track the news events, both in the UK and the US, using the global recession timeline. We observe that the news events related to ad hoc bailouts of individual banks from the UK have a contagion effect throughout the period for most of the countries under investigation. This, however, is not found to be the case for the news events originating from the US. Our findings regarding the evidence of contagion effects in the UK reinforce the argument that spreads and contagion—an outcome of the risk perception of financial markets—are solely a result of the behaviour of investors or other financial market participants.     

金融危机传导过程与机制研究:一个美国样本

本文在总结金融危机传导机制的基础上,从国内与国外两个角度分析了美国金融危机如何从房地产市场传导至信贷市场、从信贷市场传导至资本市场、由金融市场传导至实体经济、由国内传导至全球的路径。最后得出简要结论。     

全球金融危机下中国商业银行竞争策略的若干选择

金融危机使全球经济陷入衰退。在发达国家银行体系和实体经济进入调整期的同时,中国商业银行面临重大的历史发展机遇。如何抓住历史机遇,强化自身核心竞争能力,是摆在中国商业银行面前的重大课题。本文在对全球金融危机下的竞争环境和中国商业银行竞争特点进行分析的基础上,结合经典企业核心竞争力理论,对中国商业银行在激烈的市场竞争中可采取的若干竞争策略进行了探讨,以期对业界有所裨益。