Reverse imports, foreign direct investment and exchange rates

This paper investigates linkages among “reverse imports”, foreign direct investment and exchange rates. As an example, we have in mind the competition in the Japanese market of a Japanese multinational firm and a Chinese domestic firm. Products are differentiated based on Japanese consumers’ brand name recognition. The model shows that yen appreciation leads to an increase in Japanese production in China and “reverse imports” and a decrease in Japanese domestic production. Due to the barriers in brand name, the exports of the Chinese firm could fall, because the increase of reverse imports may erode the market share of the Chinese firm, even though total exports from China increase. Further, we find that yen appreciation may improve the profits of the Japanese firm and welfare in Japan under reverse imports, against conventional wisdom. The predictions of the model fit well with the actual numbers and shed light on the current debate on the Chinese currency.     

Interest rates in the U. S. and eurodollar markets

Zusammenfassung Zinss?tze in den USA und auf den Eurodollarm?rkten. — Diese Arbeit entwickelt eine Theorie der Gleichgewichts-Zinsdifferenzen zwischen heimischen und ausw?rtigen (Euro-) Zinss?tzen auf der Grundlage des zus?tzlich wahrgenommenen Risikos von Anlagen und Darlehen im Ausland und der h?heren Kosten der Regulierung, die mit dem Angebot dieser Anlagen und Darlehen im Inland verbunden sind. Kurzfristige Ver?nderungen der Zinsdifferenzen zwischen ausw?rtigen und heimischen M?rkten ergeben sich nach Ansicht der Autoren aus Unvollkommenheiten auf den heimischen M?rkten, wie z. B. einschr?nkenden Vorschriften und oligopolistischen Marktbedingungen. Empirische Tests für US- und Eurodollar-Zinss?tze für die Jahre 1974—1978 best?tigen die Hypothese, da\ die Eurodollar-S?tze schneller auf Ver?nderungen der Kreditbedingungen reagieren als die US-Bankraten.

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Résumé Les taux d’intérêt dans les marchés des E.U. et d’Eurodollar. — Cet article introduit une théorie de la différence d’équilibre entre les taux d’intérêt locaux et ?offshore? (Euro) sur la base du risque per?u supplémentairement des dép?ts et des prêts, et les frais plus hauts de régulation associés avec les dépℸs et les prêts offerts localement. Les auteurs arguent que les changements à court terme dans les différences des taux d’intérêt entre les marchés ?qoffshore? et locaux résultent des imperfections de marché local comme par exemple les restrictions régulatrices et les conditions de marché oligopolistique. Les tests empiriques avec les taux d’intérêt des E.U. et d’Eurodollar pour la période 1974–1978 supportent la hypothèse que les taux d’Eurodollar repondent plus rapidement aux changements dans les conditions de crédit que les taux des banques des E.U.

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Resumen Tasas de interés en los mercados de EEUU y del Eurodólar. — Este artículo proporciona una teoría del diferencial de equilibrio entre tasas de interés domésticas y ?offshore? (Euro) sobre la base de la percepci⤵ de riesgos adicionales para dep?sitos y préstamos ?offshore? y los costos de regulaci⤵ mayores asociados con la oferta doméstica de depósitos y préstamos. Cambios de corto plazo en las diferenciales de las tasas de interés entre mercados internos y ?offshore?, resultan, según los autores, de imperfecciones del mercado doméstico tales como restricciones regulatorias y condiciones oligopolísticas del mercado. Pruebas empíricas de las tasas de interés de los EEUU y del Eurodólar entre 1974 y 1978 sustentan la hipótesis, que las tasas del Eurodólar responden más rápidamente a cambios en las condiciones de crédito que las tasas bancarias de los EEUU.

     

Decision rules,expectations and efficiency in two foreign exchange markets

Summary In this paper a model of the exchange rate is developed from trading rules principles. The model is empirically implemented for the German Mark-US Dollar and US Dollar-UK Pound exchange rates using monthly data, over the period June 1978 to December 1982. In terms of forecasting performance and accuracy, the simple trading model is shown to outperform the forward foreign exchange rate.     

Real exchange rates and U.S./Korean bilateral trade

This study examines the impacts of the real exchange rate on the bilateral trade between the U.S. and Korea using a highly disaggregated data set. In doing so, we estimate real exchange rate elasticity for 59 exported commodities （SITC two-digit classification） and 48 imported commodities （also SITC two-digit classification）. Furthermore, we classify commodities according to their attributes in order to examine whether commodity attributes influence the exchange rate elasticity of exports and imports. According to this study＇s results, there have been large changes across those commodities that are ranked as being top contributors to U.S. exports to and imports from Korea for the time periods before, during, and after the Korean financial crisis. Commodity attributes are shown to influence the exchange rate elasticity but are not always consistent with the a priori expectations.     

Intraday seasonality in activities of the foreign exchange markets: Evidence from the electronic broking system

This paper examines intraday patterns of the exchange rate behavior, using the “firm” bid–ask quotes and transactions of USD-JPY and Euro-USD recorded in the electronic broking system of the spot foreign exchange markets. The U-shape of intraday activities (deals and price changes) is confirmed for Tokyo and London participants, but not for New York participants. Activities do not increase toward the end of business hours in the New York market, even on Fridays (ahead of weekend hours of non-trading). Return volatility is found to have intraday patterns similar to those of activities, and volatility and the bid–ask spread is negatively correlated. A negative correlation is observed between the number of deals and the width of bid–ask spread during business hours. It is also found that the concentration of transaction during overlapping business hours between Tokyo and London markets (London and New York markets) may arise from heterogeneous expectations among participants from different regions. J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (4) (2006) 637–664.     

Interest rates, risk, and imperfect markets: puzzles and policies

Traditional theory emphasizes the key role that monetary policycan play through the manipulation of interest rates. But thereare several puzzles that cannot be reconciled with standardmodels. These include: the apparent constancy in interest ratesover extended periods, and changes at other times which appearunrelated to changes in technology and demography; the cyclicalpattern of movements in real interest rates; the impact of nominalnot real interest-rate changes on real variables; and the cyclicalpattern of movements in interest-rate spreads. This paper reachesbeyond the standard competitive equilibrium, perfect information,model of credit markets towards imperfect information models,particularly those that focus on the determinants of bank behaviour.Of the standard models, the money demand model is most deficientin understanding these puzzles. The loanable funds theory anda generalized version of real productivity theory can be reconciledwith imperfect information, and markets and the consequent creditand equity rationing regimes help to explain the puzzles. Specifically,banks may be insensitive to changes in monetary stance owingto risk aversion. There are strong policy implications; it isargued, for instance, that in East Asia raising interest ratesexacerbated economic decline and, rather than contributing toexchange-rate stability, may have induced capital flight asdefault risk increased, lowering risk-adjusted expected returns.     

Interest rates, exchange rates and international adjustment: BW II dynamics

Recent attempts to explain the dynamics of adjustment of dollar exchange rates in the face of an anticipated deterioration of the US net international investment position have focused on portfolio balance models of exchange rate determination. In this paper we argue that such models are useful in understanding the behavior of dollar exchange rates with emerging market currencies but, consistent with a large body of empirical research, are not useful in understanding changes in the dollars value against the euro or the currencies of other developed countries. We conclude that portfolio preferences of governments of emerging markets provide the most plausible explanation for the persistent US current account deficit.     

Modeling coordinated foreign exchange market interventions: The case of the Japanese and U.S. interventions in the 1990s

During the past thirty years, central banks often intervened in foreign exchange markets. Sometimes they carried out foreign exchange market interventions on a unilateral basis. However, central banks often coordinated their foreign exchange market interventions. We develop a quantitative reaction function model that renders it possible to study the factors that made central banks switch from unilateral to coordinated interventions. We apply our model to the intervention policies of the Japanese monetary authorities and the U.S. Federal Reserve in the yen/U.S. dollar market during the period 1991–2001. To this end, we use recently released official data on the foreign exchange market interventions of the Japanese monetary authorities. JEL no. F31, F33, G14, G15     

The impact of exchange rate risk on the foreign direct investment of U.S. multinational manufacturing companies

This paper extends the examination of the effects of exchange rate risk on the foreign direct investment decision of U.S. multinationals in manufacturing. It does so by explicitly developing a model which incorporates exchange rate risk into the objective function of the firm and tests the model on cross-sectional data over the years 1974 to 1977 for investment in both developed and less developed countries. These are the only years for which data on all crucial variables are available. In all cases the risk aversity hypothesis was substantiated and the same model was appropriate for both developed and less developed countries.     

The response of long-term interest rates to news about monetary policy actions: Empirical evidence for the U.S. and Germany

The Response of Long-Term Interest Rates to News about Monetary Policy Actions. Empirical Evidence for the U.S. and Germany. — The authors reestimate the expectations theory of the term structure focusing on the question of how monetary policy actions indicated by changes in the very short rate affect long-term interest rates. Their main point is that the expectations hypothesis implies that very long rates should only react to unanticipated changes of the very short rate. In contrast to cointegration tests of expectations theory, this implication only requires rational expectations but not stationary risk premia. Therefore, its empirical test sheds new light on the importance of expectations theory for the determinants of the term structure of interest rates.     

Modeling the dependence of gas demand from gas prices and GDP growth rates in domestic and foreign markets

The article deals with natural gas pricing in Europe and Russia. Regression models on the dependence of the demand for Russian gas in the European Union from gas export prices and GDP growth rates in the European Union (far abroad) are developed. Adequate regression models are also developed for the dependence of the domestic demand for gas from gas prices and GDP growth rates in Russia. The coefficients of gas demand elasticity of gas prices and GDP growth rates in the European Union and Russia are estimated. The relationship between inflation and GDP growth rates in Russia and gas prices is estimated.     

Exchange rates,stock prices,and money markets: evidence from Singapore

This paper uses a monetary approach to analyze the asymmetric asset-price movements (exchange rates and stock prices) in Singapore, a small open economy with managed exchange rate targeting. The Singapore dollar exchange rates vis-à-vis the developed countries’ currencies are negatively related to stock prices whereas the relationship between the Singapore dollar-Malaysian ringgit exchange rate and stock prices is positive instead. The pattern of asymmetry is explained by the relative exchange-rate elasticity of real money demand and real money supply and evidenced by the distributed-lag regression and VAR analysis. Furthermore, the distributed-lag regression of monthly data suggests that fiscal revenues as well as fiscal expenditures exert positive influences on stock prices.     

A VARMA analysis of German money and income data: Fixed versus flexible exchange rates

Zusammenfassung Eine VARMA-Analyse deutscher Geld- und Einkommensdaten: Feste versus flexible Wechselkurse. — In diesem Aufsatz wird die VARMA-Methode (Vektor-autoregressive gleitende Durchschnitte) benutzt, um die Beziehungen zwischen dem Realeinkommen, der realen Geldmenge und dem realen Zinssatz in der Bundesrepublik zu untersuchen. Es werden zwei verschiedene Modelle aufgestellt, gesch?tzt und getestet für die Perioden mit festen und flexiblen Wechselkursen. Auf der Grundlage von Granger Kausalit?tstests wird gezeigt, da? reale Geldmenge und realer Zinssatz das reale BSP bei flexiblen, aber nicht bei festen Wechselkursen beeinflussen. Diese Ergebnisse entsprechen theoretischen Analysen über die Wirksamkeit der Geldpolitik bei verschiedenen Wechselkurssystemen und weichen von früheren Untersuchungen deutscher Daten ab, die diese Unterschiede in den Systemen nicht berücksichtigen. Au?erdem wird in dem Artikel eine Rückwirkung des realen BSP auf die reale Geldmenge (aber nicht auf den realen Zinssatz) nur für die Periode mit flexiblen Wechselkursen ermittelt.

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Résumé Une analyse VARMA des données de la monnaie et du produit national de l’Allemagne: les cours de change fixes contre les cours de change flexibles. — Cette étude adopte la VARMA-méthodologie pour analyser les relations entre le revenu réel, la monnaie réelle et le taux d’intérêt réel en Allemagne. On a identifié, évalué, vérifié et soumis à un test deux modèles séparés pour les périodes des cours de change fixes et flexibles. Sur la base du test de causalité de Granger, la monnaie réelle et le taux d’intérêt réel influencent le produit national brut réel sous des cours de change flexibles mais pas sous des cours de change fixes. Ces résultats sont conformes aux analyses théoretiques sur l’efficacité de la politique monétaire sous des systèmes alternatifs des cours de change, mais ils sont différents des études précédentes des données allemandes qui manquent de prendre en considération la différence principale entre ces deux périodes. En plus on a découvert une répercussion du produit national brut réel sur M1 réelle (mais pas de taux d’intérêt réel) seulement pour la période des cours de change flexibles.

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Resumen Un análisis VARMA de datos sobre la moneda y el ingreso alemanes: tipos de cambio fijos versus tipos de cambio flexibles. — En este trabajo se adopta la metodologia del vector autoregresivo de promedio móvil (VARMA) para analizar las relaciones entre el ingreso real, la oferta monetaria real y la tasa de interés real para Alemania. Dos modelos separados son identificados, estimados, controlados y sometidos a un test para los subperiodos de tasas de cambio fijas y flexibles. Segùn un test de causalidad de Granger ni la oferta monetaria real ni la tasa de interés real influencian el PBN real bajo tasas de cambio fijas, mientras que, bajo tasas de cambio flexibles, el PBN real es afectado por ambas variables monetarias. Estos resultados son consistentes con la diferencia teórica que existe con respecto a la efecti vidad de la politica monetaria bajo régimenes de tasas de cambio alternatives y, por ello, difieren de estudios previos de datos alemanes, los cuales no toman en cuenta el cambio de régimen. Además, se détecta un “feedback” del PBN real a la M1 real (pero no a la tasa de interés real) sólo durante el periodo de cambios flexibles.

     

Elasticity pessimism,expectations, and stability of the foreign exchange market

Conclusions This note has shown that, when trade volumes do not respond sufficiently to deviations from equilibrium of the exchange rate, and when speculative demand for foreign currency is assumed to be a stock demand, the dynamic stability of the foreign exchange market depends crucially on expectational assumptions. Of the expectational assumptions investigated here, only perfect myopic foresight is capable of providing dynamic stability, and then only when the sensitivity of speculators to capital gains is larger than a threshold value determined by other parameter values in the system.     

The impact of shocks to exchange rates and oil prices on U.S. sales of American and Japanese automakers

Since 1973, floating exchange rates and significant oil-price changes have coincided with dramatic market-share gains (losses) by Japanese (American) automakers in the U.S. market. This paper analyzes and empirically estimates the extent to which exchange rate and oil price changes have contributed to this market shift. We first develop a dynamic Cournot model of long-run profit-maximizing firms that operate in a macroeconomy characterized by shocks to income, exchanges rates, oil prices, and firm-specific demands and supplies. Using the solutions for quantities sold from this model, we then construct a structural vector autoregression (VAR) to estimate and identify a reduced-form VAR. The empirical results indicate that a strong yen increases quantities sold by American automakers and decreases quantities sold by Japanese automakers; this exchange-rate effect accounts for approximately four percent of the variance of changes in monthly-sales quantity for automakers. Oil-price increases reduce the quantity of automobiles sold by American automakers, but, contrary to the common belief, have little effect on Japanese automakers; this oil-price effect accounts for 6.5 percent of the variance of changes in monthly-sales quantities for American automakers. Over the two decades we analyze, however, the real value of the dollar has almost steadily declined against the yen, and the real price of oil has ended up unchanged, so these variables cannot explain the decline (rise) of American (Japanese) automakers. Clearly, automobile sales are exposed to exchange rate, oil price, and income risk; between 10 and 20 percent of the changes in monthly-sales quantities can be explained by the macroeconomic variables that we analyze. However, we conclude that firm-specific policies probably account for the bulk of gains and losses actually experienced by the automakers.     

Term premia comovement in German,Japanese, and U.S. domestic markets

This paper gauges the openness of German, Japanese, and U.S. capital markets by examining their term premia comovement. The term premia appear to move together. This result suggests that the risky excess returns in the term structure behave as if the assets in the three countries were traded in a single integrated market.     

Flexible exchange rates and perfect foresight: The implications of domestic monetary policy for foreign prices and stabilization policy

Zusammenfassung Flexible Wechselkurse und vollkommene Voraussicht: Implikationen der inl?ndischen Geldpolitik für die Preisentwicklung und Stabilisierungspolitik im Ausland. — Vorgestellt wird eine Variante mit zwei L?ndern und vollkommener Voraussicht, die auf dem 1976 von Dornbusch entwickelten Modell flexibler Wechselkurse basiert. Die Güterpreise in beiden L?ndern passen sich danach nur z?gernd der übernachfrage an. Die Isolierung des ausl?ndischen Preisniveaus von einem unerwarteten dauerhaften Anstieg der heimischen Geldmenge erfordert in dem Augenblick eine sprunghafte Erh?hung der ausl?ndischen Geldmenge, in dem es im Inland zum Anstieg kommt, gefolgt von einem Rückgang auf das frühere Niveau. Soll das ausl?ndische Preisniveau bei einer im voraus angekündigten Geldpolitik im Inland stabilisiert werden, dann mu\ die ausl?ndische Geldmenge zu dem Zeitpunkt sprunghaft erh?ht werden, zu dem die Ankündigung im Inland erfolgt. Die weitere zeitliche Entwicklung der Geldversorgung im Ausland h?ngt von bestimmten Parametern des Modells ab, die n?her erl?utert werden.

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Résumé Taux de change flexibles et la prévision parfaite: les implications des politiques monétaires locales pour les prix et la politique de stabilisation à l’étranger. — L’auteur présente une version de prévision parfaite et à deux pays d’un modèle des taux de change flexibles développé par Dornbusch en 1976. Les prix des biens dans les deux pays s’ajustent inertement à l’excès de demande. L’isolation du niveau de prix étranger d’une imprévue augmentation permanente du stock monétaire rend nécessaire un saut en stock monétaire étranger au moment où l’augmentation locale se passe, suivie par une réduction jusqu’au niveau initial. La stabilisation des prix à l’étranger au cas d’une politique locale monétaire préannoncée implique un saut en masse monétaire étrangère si l’annonce est faite. Le développement subséquent de la masse monétaire dépend des certains paramètres dans le modèle.

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Resumen Tasas de cambio flexibles y predicción perfecta: las implicaciones de la política monetaria doméstica sobre los precios externos y la política de estabilización. — Se présenta una versión de predicción perfecta de dos países de un modelo de tasas de cambio flexibles de Dornbusch de 1976. Los precios de los bienes se ajustan en ambos países lentamente al exceso de demanda. La aislación del nivel de precios extranjero de un aumento permanente no anticipado del stock monetario del pais natal requière de un salto en el stock de monedas extranjeras cuando se produce el aumento doméstico, seguido de una disminución a su nivel original. Estabilización de precios extranjeros con una pol⩼ica monetaria doméstica preanunciada envuelve un salto en la oferta monetaria extranjera cuando se hace el anuncio. La trayectoria en el tiempo de la oferta monetaria depende de ciertos parámetros en el modelo.