次区域贸易安排与APEC目标的实现

1998年以后,APEC框架下的次区域贸易安排发展迅速,而APEC进程本身却相对迟缓,引发了人们对二者之间关系的关注.本文全面分析了亚太地区双边和诸边自由贸易协定(FTAs)的基本格局;有针对性地评价了美国等主要APEC成员的新区域主义政策.以此为基础,论文着重探讨了FTAs对实现APEC茂物目标的影响,并得出了相应结论.     

自由贸易协定深度对中国制造业出口竞争力的影响北大核心

文章基于中国已签署的自由贸易协定(FTAs),利用2000～2018年增加值贸易数据，从FTAs水平深度和垂直深度双重视角实证检验了自由贸易协定深度对中国制造业出口竞争力的影响。研究结果表明，FTAs深度的提升能提高中国制造业的出口竞争力，且相较于垂直深度，水平深度的作用效果更加明显，在一系列稳健性检验与内生性问题处理后该结论依然成立；异质性分析发现，FTAs深度对制造业出口竞争力的影响因制造业类型和出口目的国(地区)类型不同而具有异质性；机制分析表明，FTAs深度可通过降低贸易成本和促进外商直接投资提升制造业出口竞争力。进一步的反事实模拟表明，加入不同的区域贸易协定均会提升中国制造业出口竞争力，且对资本密集型制造业出口竞争力的提升效果最强，其次是技术密集型制造业，最后是劳动密集型制造业；与中国是否加入区域贸易协定的预测结果相比，区域贸易协定水平深度对制造业整体以及分类型制造业出口竞争力的影响效果更加显著。     

亚太区域经济一体化发展及其对APEC的影响

近年来,各种形式的FTAs/RTAs在一定程度上促进了亚太区域经济一体化的发展,同时也给APEC带来了机遇和挑战。为此,APEC应该加强对FTAs/RTAs的规范,并努力提高自身的合作效率,推动亚太区域经济一体化的进一步发展。     

跨区域双边自由贸易协定的政治经济动机分析北大核心CSSCISSCI

舍近求远达成的跨区域双边自由贸易协定(FTA)挑战了地理位置毗邻作为建立区域一体化必要要素这一条件,对其进行专门的研究具有十分重要的意义。作者论述了跨区域双边FTA在全球范围内的新发展,认为这种舍近求远的FTA所能实现的经济福利是有限的,其成立的动机主要在于两国间的政治利益或其他经济利益。通过对决策者选择跨区域双边FTA的决策动机分析,作者认为,与区域一体化的多边贸易协定比较,跨区域双边FTA起到了不可替代作用。     

跨区域双边自由贸易协定的政治经济动机分析

舍近求远达成的跨区域双边自由贸易协定(FTA)挑战了地理位置毗邻作为建立区域一体化必要要素这一条件,对其进行专门的研究具有十分重要的意义。作者论述了跨区域双边FTA在全球范围内的新发展,认为这种舍近求远的FTA所能实现的经济福利是有限的,其成立的动机主要在于两国间的政治利益或其他经济利益。通过对决策者选择跨区域双边FTA的决策动机分析,作者认为,与区域一体化的多边贸易协定比较,跨区域双边FTA起到了不可替代作用。     

《亚太经济》2007年总目录

当前世界经济发展与区域经济合作的若干问题—在2006年亚太年会上的讲话张蕴岭IP2亚太纵横对外贸易变动对东亚经济周期同步性影响的计量分析王悦IP6区域化对经济增长影响的研究刘晓宝IP12国际贸易理论的新发展与东亚实践钟乃仪IP16新经济、后发优势与东亚可持续发展侯高岚IP21“全球失衡”与世界经济增长动力多元化朱乃新2P2中日FTA的政治经济学分析王凯2P7如何应对美国贸易保护主义—论东亚集体行动的可选择性周忠菲2P12中国参与双边FTAs进程及其与APEC的政策协调刘晨阳宫占奎ZP17区域经济一体化伙伴国的经济发展水平与本国经济…     

贸易自由化模式与中国的比较优势

对双边自由贸易组织的现实合理性及其过渡性分析发现,基于经济利益的考虑,亚洲的发展中国家和地区倾向于选择双边先行的自由贸易体制。要获得更大的贸易收益,中国必须积极主动融入到区域经济一体化进程。在贸易收益只取决于相对偏好和相对人口比例大小的条件下,中国和东盟建立自由贸易区符合国家战略的必然选择,同时中国应加快实施战略性贸易政策,扶植高新技术产业,促进经济结构升级,在东亚经济一体化进程中掌握先发的制度优势和技术优势。     

中国与东盟经济增长和进出口贸易发展：比较优势与政策选择北大核心CSSCISSCI

中国和东盟双边贸易发展带动了双边和多边投资和跨国区域经济合作,有利于中国-东盟自由贸易区建设。中国在制定对外经济政策时,必须充分考虑与东盟双边贸易的影响效应,深化双边与多边分工合作关系,提高整个经济区域在全球经济体系中的市场竞争力。     

中国参与FTAs的进展与效应分析

目前，我国已实施和谈判中的FTAs以双边协定为主，FTAs的价值与效应在传统、非传统经济领域以及政治、外交等方面均有所体现，并因此决定了其在我国贸易政策体系中的重要地位。     

建立“中国-东盟自由贸易区”的目标、进程与利益分析

全力打造“中国—东盟自由贸易区”,与东盟国家一起在经济全球化、区域化发展的大背景下,寻找新的发展空间,开创东亚区域经济合作与发展的新局面,是未来10年中国与东盟国家经济发展的总体目标。本文主要对建立“中国—东盟自由贸易区”的目标、进程、中国的承诺以及自由贸易区给双方带来的利益进行分析。作者认为,在与东盟国家历经6轮的谈判磋商中,中国政府在政策上所表现出的灵活性、务实性,以及中国所做出的承诺,充分显示了中国对推动双边经济合作的诚意、前瞻性以及一个大国所具有的气度。建立“中国与东盟自由贸易区”不仅符合双方的利益,而且对推动整个东亚区域经济合作,乃至世界经济的发展都将产生重要的影响。因此,建立“中国—东盟自由贸易区”必将呈现双赢或多赢的局面。     

China＇s Free Trade Agreements with ASEAN, Japan and Korea： A Comparative Analysis

The role of China in East Asia's recovery from the recent global financial and economic crisis highlights China's position as an engine of growth for this region. From the viewpoint of China, there are many potential gains from entering into free trade agreements (FTAs) with its neighbors, who collectively form a large and fast‐growing market. In this paper, we qualitatively and quantitatively assess the four main permutations of China's FTAs with East Asian major economies: China–ASEAN, China–Japan, China–Korea and ASEAN+3. We compare the effects of these FTAs on China's output and welfare. Our comparative analysis shows that China will gain from all three bilateral FTAs, while gaining the most from the ASEAN+3. Because forming a region‐wide FTA, such as the ASEAN+3, is expected to be gradual and difficult, China should continue to engage in bilateral FTAs as a medium‐term and alternative strategy. However, in the long term, China should pursue a region‐wide FTA.     

美韩签署FTA对台湾的影响

美韩双边在各自利益需求的考量之下成功签署FTA,必将刺激亚太地区各国洽签双边FTA的热情。对于近年来许多经济指标都被韩国超越的台湾当局来说,难免感到紧张却又一筹莫展。韩美FTA对台湾的挑战将如何?这是本文要讨论的重点。     

Trade creation and the status of FTAs: empirical evidence from East Asia

East Asia has been considered a latecomer with respect to Free Trade Agreements (FTAs). Since the turn of the last century, however, FTAs with East Asian participation have seen an intra- and extra-regional expansion. Many trade initiatives have been proposed, negotiated or even implemented. This introduces interesting perspectives for the analysis of trade agreements regarding their anticipatory trade effects. This paper focuses on the trade impact of FTAs at different stages that East Asian economies participate in. The central part of this study is an econometric analysis that applies panel data to the gravity model of international trade flows. We augment the traditional model with variables to estimate trade effects of bilateral and multilateral agreements and year-to-year changes in the stages of their implementation. Our results reveal that there exist anticipatory effects preceding the actual implementation of bilateral FTAs with East Asian participation. Further, anticipation effects are larger for bilateral than for multilateral agreements, possibly because the realisation of bilateral agreements is considered more realistic.     

Singapore's Perspectives on the Proliferation of RTAs in East Asia and Beyond

Abstract

In this article the viewpoints and adopted strategies of Singapore in managing its trading relationship with other countries in the world is discussed. Trade being the lifeline and basis for its economic survival, Singapore has been very active in the negotiation and establishment of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with countries, practically in every continent. Singapore's activism in bilateral FTAs is a reinforcement of its development strategy of expanding and ensuring market access for local and foreign investors. This is also in alignment with Singapore's pro- business strategy philosophy and the objective of ensuring economic viability. Also Singapore's trade accords go beyond trade liberalization and include “behind the border” impediments to trade; this is reckoned to keep the momentum of trade talk going and to hasten the process of liberalization by inducing other countries to liberalize.     

桥头堡战略背景下滇缅经济合作机制的问题与对策

建国以来,滇缅经济合作机制大体经历了边民互市贸易、双边经贸合作、中国——东盟框架下的滇缅经贸合作三个阶段的演进过程,功能不断深化。但滇缅经济合作进展迟缓,在很大程度上成为云南省面向东南亚、南亚参与东盟自由贸易和大湄公河次区域经济合作的障碍,表明滇缅经济合作机制已不能适应新形势下中缅经济技术合作的内在要求。只有充分认识双方在对话机制、利益协调机制、贸易合作机制、投资、能源、交通运输、旅游等合作机制的局限性,并采取相应对策,才能从根本上推动滇缅经贸技术合作持续、健康、快速发展。     

Impact of liberalization and improved connectivity and facilitation in ASEAN

This study attempts to evaluate the potential economic effects of liberalization and improved connectivity and facilitation of trade in goods and services among the ASEAN member states (AMSs) by applying economy-wide simulation analysis based on a recursively dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We conduct a set of simulations to capture the effects of establishing free trade agreements (FTAs) in which the AMSs participate. Three key components affecting the impacts of FTAs are reduction of tariffs on goods, lowering of barriers to trade in services, and saving time-costs arising from logistics. Simulation results revealed that reducing trade barriers has a significantly positive impact on economic welfare. Although there are differences in the magnitude of positive contributions to welfare, all of the FTAs in which the AMSs participate tend to raise welfare. Among the FTAs examined in this study, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) leads to the largest positive effects on real GDP for most of the AMSs.     

Exporter responses to FTA tariff preferences: evidence from Thailand

This paper focuses on how exporters respond to free trade agreement (FTA) preferential schemes by analysing the administrative records of FTA implementation at the product level in Thailand. The key finding is that while there is growth in the number of FTAs with a potentially larger membership than existing FTAs, firms tend to prioritise existing FTAs. Moreover, only a narrow range of products are involved in applications for FTA preferential schemes. As a result, only one‐third of exports are covered by such arrangements. The key determinants of firms applying for preferential schemes include tariff margins, the ability to comply with rules of origins (ROOs) and the economic fundamentals influencing trade. Hence, it is less likely for FTAs to open up export opportunities for products that are either yet to be traded or of low prospective trade volume. Estimates of the costs of complying with ROOs average 8.6 per cent of tariff equivalence. The cost approaches zero for developed countries but is substantially higher for developing nations. The key policy inference is that the export‐enhancing effects of FTAs are passive at best, working only after economic fundamentals are established. For us to harness the trade‐inducing effects of FTAs, reducing costs incurred from the presence of ROOs from both exporting and importing countries should be the prime focus.     

构建中美战略互信

中美关系正面临严重考验和战略互信的缺失,两国关系的不稳定将造成双方都难以承受的巨大利益损失,并危害世界经济的发展和全球安全。国际形势的深刻变化和两国间日益增加的共同利益,也为双方提供了前所未有的战略机遇。必须坚持"中美关系的本质是互利共赢"的新型战略思维,既正视双边关系中的困难与障碍,又努力摈除不利于发展共同利益的陈旧思维,逐步建立积累战略互信。经贸合作是中美关系的核心,也是中美战略合作的重要基础和"稳定器",中美经贸关系一直在合作与摩擦中向前发展。新形势下,中美双方应以战略眼光精心培育、构筑两国经贸合作的四大坚实基础:自由贸易根基、互利共赢根基、结构平衡根基、平等公正根基。