How U.S. Farm Programs and Crop Revenue Insurance Affect Returns to Farm Land

A simulation model incorporating price and yield variability is used to examine the impact of government farm program and crop revenue coverage (CRC) insurance payments on the probability distribution of returns to land. Results indicate that Marketing Loan Program payments have the greatest impact on both the mean and standard deviation of returns. Agricultural Market Transition Act payments shift the distribution of returns without changing the variability, creating a reduction in relative risk. Market loss assistance payments increase the mean, reduce variability, and increase skewness. When combined, farm programs substantially increase the value that risk-averse producers place on the residual returns to land and substantially reduce the certainty equivalent value of CRC.     

Designing Optimal Crop Revenue Insurance

When the indemnity schedule is contingent on the farmer's price and individual yield, an optimal crop revenue insurance contract depends only on the farmer's gross revenue. However, this design is not efficient if, as is the case with available contracts, the coverage function is based on imperfect estimators of individual yield and/or price. The producer's degree of prudence and the extent of basis risks have important influences on the optimal indemnity schedule. In this broader context, optimal protection is not provided by available U.S. crop insurance contracts and may include combinations of revenue insurance, yield insurance, futures, and options contracts.     

Evaluating Alternative Prescribed Burning Policies to Reduce Net Economic Damages from Wildfire

We estimate a wildfire risk model with a new measure of wildfire output, intensity-weighted risk and use it in Monte Carlo simulations to estimate welfare changes from alternative prescribed burning policies. Using Volusia County, Florida as a case study, an annual prescribed burning rate of 13% of all forest lands maximizes net welfare; ignoring the effects on wildfire intensity may underestimate optimal rates of prescribed burning. Our estimated supply function for prescribed fire services is inelastic, suggesting that increasing contract prescribed fire services on public lands may produce rapidly escalating costs for private landowners and unintended distributional and "leakage" effects.     

How Unilateral Economic Sanctions Affect the Farm Economy: An Inter-Industry Analysis

This paper examines how unilateral economic sanctions affect the U.S. farm economy. A key result is that the total impact of unilateral sanctions on the U.S. economy is larger than the direct impacts on industries whose exports have been constrained (in some cases more than twice as large). Thus, while the direct burden of sanctions may fall on a narrow set of industries, the analysis reveals the extent to which the impacts spill over into other sectors of the economy, an area to date that has not received adequate attention.     

我国农业保险业务萎缩的经济学分析

本文从公共经济学的角度，分析了农业保险的准公共物品性质，并分析了其正外部性，以及由于外部性存在最终导致供给不足、效率的损失。因此市场经济要求政府对市场失效进行调节，对农业保险给予补贴。     

玉米生产者经济效益影响因素实证分析——来自三省的农户调查

本文通过对南北三省农户玉米生产的投入和产出情况进行实地调查,比较分析了不同收入等级农户、不同地区农户和不同土地等级玉米生产的成本和收益情况。主要结论有:(1)玉米的生产成本和经济效益与农户的贫富等级有关;(2)玉米的成本和收益与土地的细碎化、土地等级有关;(3)劳动用工量和化肥量是玉米生产的最主要影响因素;(4)人工费用的计量方法将直接影响玉米生产成本和经济效益的核算。     

森林保险市场供求失衡的经济学分析

运用市场供求平衡原理,从森林保险市场失灵的价格因素、森林保险的双重外部效应、森林保险的公共性以及财政补贴对森林保险的效应4个方面分析了森林保险市场供求失衡的原因,并提出了完善森林保险市场的建议,如国家立法、开展林业合作经济组织、政策性和商业性保险相结合以及森林保险产品设计的市场化等。     

Crop Insurance in a Political Economy: An Alternative Perspective on Agricultural Policy

Lawmakers often subsidize farmers in times of financial distress. This article models this political impulse as a constraint on government farm policy, describing how ex ante government farm insurance can deter ex post "disaster relief" and improve production incentives by countering the moral hazard that otherwise prevails. Absent ex ante government policy, ex post relief takes the form of revenue insurance, which prompts excessive entry into farm production and under-production by operating farmers. Ex ante government policy can raise economic and political welfare by buying out low productivity farmers and offering profitable farmers a combination of revenue insurance, price supports, and a program participation fee.     

做好工伤保险基金的收与支应注意的问题

工伤保险制度作为社会保障体系的重要组成部分,是社会主义市场经济的重要支柱。该文主要结合农十三师社会保险基金管理的情况进行了分析,并提出了确定公平合理的工伤保险费率,严格限定工伤保险基金的支付范围和真正发挥工伤保险储备金的作用等应该注意的问题。     

Crop Insurance Valuation under Alternative Yield Distributions

Considerable disagreement exists about the most appropriate characterization of farm-level yield distributions. Yet, the economic importance of alternative yield distribution specifications on crop insurance valuation has not been well documented. The results of this study demonstrate that large differences in expected payouts from popular crop insurance products can arise solely from the parameterization chosen to represent yield distributions. The results suggest that the frequently unexamined yield distribution specification may lead to economically significant errors in crop insurance policy rating and assessment of expected payouts from policies.     

Predicting Farm Tractor Values through Alternative Depreciation Methods

This study compares a variety of farm tractor depreciation methods to determine which most accurately estimates farm tractor values. These alternative depreciation methods consider different factors for estimating remaining value and vary in difficulty of use. Pairwise comparisons of mean absolute percentage error and forecast accuracy regression models were used to evaluate the accuracy of the depreciation methods, which depend on age, intensity of use, and manufacturer. Based on the results of this study, the Cross and Perry method was generally the most accurate.     

The Effects of Alternative Methods of Crow Benefit Payment on Economic Rents of Farm Input Suppliers in Western Canada

This paper uses a multi-market partial equilibrium model to assess the impact of selected alternative methods of payment of the Crow Benefit on the economic welfare of farm input suppliers for the feed grain sector in western Canada. the model is calibrated using data representative of the period from 1986 to 1988. Inputs are grouped into categories of land, labor, machinery and buildings, and other purchased inputs. Impacts of alternative policy regimes are found to differ substantially by the characteristics of the particular policy proposal and also by the nature of the input in question. Input suppliers would be worse off under the method of payment embodied in the so-called Gilson, 50:50 and Agricultural Diversification Alliance proposals, but would be better off under the Grain Trasportation Refund plan. Adverse impacts on landowne welfare, measured as percentage change in economic rents received, would be larger than the effects on other input suppliers, in some cases exceeding 10% of the rents received under the status quo. L'étude utilise un modèle multi-marchéàéquilibre partiel pour évaluer les incidences de diverses méthodes de paiement du montant compensatoire du Nid-de-Corbeau sur la situation économique des agrofournisseurs du secteur des céréles de provendes dans l'ouest du Canads. Le modèle est étalonné au moyen de données représentatives d'une période allant de 1986 à 1988. Les intrants sont groupés en catégories: fonds de terre, main-d'oeuvre, machinerie et bâtiments et autres fournitures achetées. Les effets des divers régimes diffèrent sensiblement par les caractères du projet do politique et aussi par la nature des intrants en question. La situation des fournisseurs serait empirée si l'on emploie la méthode de paicment comprise dans les programmes Gilson, 50:50 et Agricultural Diversification Alliance, mais elle serait meilleure avec le plan de remboursement sur le transport du grain. Les effets négatifs sur la situation des propriétaires de terre, mesurés par le changement en pourcentage du loiyer économique reçu, étaient plus importants que les effets sur les autres catégories d'agrofournisseurs, dépassant parfois 10% du loye reçu dans le régime actuel.