The stability of decision making in committees: The one-core

We study the stability of decision making in committees. A policy proposal introduced by a committee member is either adopted or abandoned in favor of a new proposal after deliberations. If a proposal is abandoned, it is in spite of the committee member who introduced it, who does not cooperate in any effort to defeat it. Shenoy (1980) proposes the one-core as a solution concept for this game, and shows that this solution may be empty. We provide a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of a stable policy under the majority rule. This result highlights a trade-off between the size of a committee, the number of competing policy options, and the existence of a stable outcome. Our findings imply a tension between political stability and the existence of a large number of competing interests in democracies.     

Integrated bio-economic models as tools to support land-use decision making: a review of potential and limitations

Bio-economic modelling has become a useful tool for anticipating the outcomes of policies and technologies before their implementation. Advances in mathematical programming have made it possible to build more comprehensive models. In an overview of recent studies about bio-economic models applied to land-use problems in agriculture and forestry, we evaluated how aspects such as uncertainty, multiple objective functions, system dynamics and time have been incorporated into models. We found that single objective models were more frequently applied at the farm level, while multiple objective modelling has been applied to meet concerns at the landscape level. Among the objectives, social aspects are seldom represented in all models, when being compared to economic and environmental aspects. The integration of uncertainty is occasionally a topic, while stochastic approaches are more frequently applied than non-stochastic robust methods. Most multiple-objective models do not integrate uncertainty or sequential decision making. Static approaches continue to be more recurrent than truly dynamic models. Even though integrating multiple aspects may enhance our understanding of a system; it involves a tradeoff between complexity and robustness of the results obtained. Land-use models have to address this balance between complexity and robustness in order to evolve towards robust multiple-objective spatial optimization as a prerequisite to achieve sustainability goals.     

Toward standardization in socioeconomic modeling: Concepts for the second generation of modeling tools

Standardization in modeling is understood here as a strategic process to improve the transfer of models and modeling know-how, to diminish the gap between model builders and model users, and to make the art of modeling an honorable science on a consolidated basis. Within the wide spectrum of standardization efforts, this paper reflects on a general approach for an improvement of model transfer, based on technical concepts for the next generation of software tools. These tools will be developed for large-scale modeling activities. Three formal software concepts to meet these needs are discussed: modularization, software interfaces, and integrated modeling systems. Although modularization is understood here as a concept characterizing the transferable good (the models), the other two concepts refer to output (or input) characteristics of the modeling tools and to their performance requirements. Some remarks on implementation of technical standards are added.     

Reciprocity in financial decision making: intuitive and analytical mind-reading strategies

In financial games requiring to take into account the reciprocal benefits, mind-reading—that is, trying to identify other people’s thoughts—is involved. Mind-reading may occur through either analytical or intuitive strategies. Two studies were carried out to deepen the role of analytical and intuitive modes of thinking in mind-reading in financial decision making. Employing the Ultimatum Game as a setting suitable for researching into these topics, we found that the sums of money offered by undergraduates were modulated depending both on the psychological portraits of the responders and on the two modes of thinking. Specifically we found that the sums of money the undergraduates offered varied consistently across the two studies according to specific responder’s psychological features such as honesty, sense of justice, personal dignity. As for the two modes of thinking, it turned out that in the intuitive task proposers offered larger amount of money than in the analytical task.     

Participation, decision aggregation and internal information gathering in organizational decision making

This paper proposes a stylized theory that focuses on the determination of the structure of decision making within teams. This structure consists of two elements: the allocation of decisional power among the team members, and the degree of information acquisition on their quality. The suggested approach is applied in the special context of pairwise organizational choice for evaluating the performance of a class of decision rules, the value of participation in organizational decision making, the value of information on the quality of the available decision makers, and the efficiency loss associated with common restrictions on the design of the corporate's structure of decision making.     

PowerPlay: Exploring decision making behaviors in energy efficiency markets

Computer models are widely used to analyze decisions about energy efficiency improvements in the residential and commercial sectors. Few models exist that can actually be run interactively by decision makers to play out alternative future scenarios. None are available that interactively capture the dynamics, subtleties and complexities of interdependent decisions by utilities, households and firms in an ever-changing technological and economic environment.This paper presents the features and experiences of PowerPlay, a computer-facilitated game which fills that gap and does more: it is a game to be played by at least a dozen player groups who interact with each other, make deals (or break them), plan for the future and revise decisions. The computer model functions like a game board to trace actions and offer choices. The observed behaviors can be analyzed to advance understanding of investment strategies and consumer choices; to generate experimentally-based data on energy efficiency changes; and to provide the basis for analyses that can substantiate or complement historical, time-series driven specifications of energy models.     

The use of macroeconomic models in economic policy making: The Norwegian experience

Planning in Norway has a long tradition. The use of models is an integral part of short- and medium-term economic policy administration. A large-scale input-output model, MODIS IV, is used as the short- and medium-term forecasting and planning model. The use of the model secures consistency when analysing the economy. The model is very open in the sense that important interrelations in the economy are left out. The model contains only ‘good’ relations in the Leif Johansen sense of the word. Smaller aggregate and more closed versions of the model are used for analysing policy alternatives. These models contain both ‘good’ and ‘bad’ relations. The use of macroeconomic models is an important aid for proposals regarding economic policy in the Ministry of Finance. Because the whole ministry (with expert help from other ministries) takes an active part in the model work, MODIS IV serves as the centralizing mechanism. It helps to make economists from many ministries go around the same centre, speak the same ‘language’ and organize all relevant information and judgements in a consistent way. Experience shows that ‘numbers discipline’ and force the different arguments on to a higher level of precision.     

Speed and quality of collective decision making: Imperfect information processing

This paper studies efficient programmed hierarchies as introduced by Radner [The organization of decentralized information processing, Econometrica 61(5) (1993) 1109-1146] in which agents cannot process information perfectly. A group of P identical managers has to make a choice between n alternatives. In order to learn which is the best option, the alternatives have to be compared. The evaluation of an alternative takes time and managers are only able to identify the better one of two alternatives with a positive probability. The skip-level reporting tree proposed by Radner is found to be efficient in terms of the dimensions decision cost, decision delay, and decision quality.     

Armed conflicts and women's authority in intra-household decision making

This paper evaluates the extent to which armed conflicts alter women's intra-household decision making in 51 countries over the past three decades (1990–2018). Exploiting the variations both within and across districts in the timing of battles, we uncover adverse consequences of armed conflict on women's engagement in household decisions on both financial and non-financial aspects. Specifically, a one standard deviation increase in the number of battles (equivalent to an increase of 5.1 battles) reduces the composite financial and non-financial decision indices of women by 2.32% and 1.34% relative to the sample averages. Breaking down the decision-making indices by looking at the underlying items, we further find that the declines in women's intra-household decision making come from reductions in all aspects of financial and non-financial domains.     

Antecedents of creative decision making in organizational crisis: A team-based simulation

Although it has been claimed that the devastation and complexities that characterize an organizational crisis may be addressed most effectively with creative solutions, theoretical and empirical research examining this challenge is scarce. We developed a theoretical model concerning creative decision making during organizational crisis for crisis management teams. To test this theory, we collected data from 191 individuals in 37 teams who participated in multi-hour, multi-phased organizational crisis simulations in the United States and Canada. Using regression analysis, we found that crisis management teams generated a creative decision when they were familiar with solutions, trusted their team members, and had creative intentions. This study supports organizational efforts to leverage education, training and accountability to reinforce creativity in crisis decision making.     

The influence of spouses on household decision making under risk: an experiment in rural China

We study household decision making in a high-stakes experiment with a random sample of households in rural China. Spouses have to choose between risky lotteries, first separately and then jointly. We find that spouses’ individual risk preferences are more similar the richer the household and the higher the wife’s relative income contribution. A couple’s joint decision is typically very similar to the husband’s preferences, but women who contribute relatively more to the household income, women in high-income households, and women with communist party membership have a stronger influence on the joint decision.     

Environmental uncertainty,foresight and strategic decision making: An integrated study

This paper explores how the foresight practices and techniques that might be used for coping with environmental uncertainty are coordinated throughout large corporations and how their results are used for supporting strategic decision making. Based on an in-depth and multiple study of several companies, we analyse the main characteristics of environmental uncertainty - complexity and dynamism - that shape companies’ approaches to strategic foresight and uncertainty management. We explore the impact of growing complexity and dynamism on these approaches and the role of prediction and control in their design and implementation. We outline a conceptual framework for strategic foresight activities - and their relationships with decision making under uncertainty - as a planned learning process about the future which enables managers not to know opportunities and threats in advance, but to detect them more promptly and to react more effectively as soon as they start emerging.     

Some aspects of decision making in the UK manufacturing sector

The links between price, output, labour services, inventories, backlog and expected values of input prices and income are considered in an adjustment framework. A five equation model is estimated by Ordinary Least Squares and a Two Step approximation to Generalized Least Squares using data from the U.K. manufacturing sector with expected values assumed to be generated by ARIMA processes. Simulation is used to discuss the model, and estimation method, while the stability of the links between the variables is considered.     

Constitutional choice in ancient Athens: the evolution of the frequency of decision making

Contrary to modern representative democracies where elections tend to take place years apart, in the direct democracy of ancient Athens the assembly of the citizens met to decide policy up to forty times per year. The paper explores a model of constitutional choice where self-interested citizens decide how long to wait until they vote by maximising the net gain from an uncertain voting outcome. It is found that the frequency of voting increases unambiguously when the probability of being a member of the winning majority increases, and decreases with the loss from being a member of the losing minority and the resource cost of the vote. Under some plausible conditions, the frequency also rises with increases in the utility gain from the vote, the discount rate, and the required majority to pass a policy motion. It is argued that those conditions were met in Athens.