Strategic intensity: a conversation with world chess champion Garry Kasparov

It's hard to find a better exemplar for competition than chess. The image of two brilliant minds locked in a battle of skill and will-in which chance plays little or no apparent role-is compelling. Even people who have scant knowledge of the game instinctively recognize that chess is unusual in terms of its intellectual complexity and the strategic demands it places on players. Can strategists learn anything from chess players about what it takes to win? To find out, H BR senior editor Diane L. Coutu talked with Garry Kasparov, the world's number one player since 1984. Kasparov believes that success in both chess and business is very much a question of psychological advantage; the complexity of the game demands that players rely heavily on their instincts and on gamesmanship. In this wide-ranging interview, Kasparov explores the power of chess as a model for business competition; the balance that chess players strike between intuition and analysis; the significance of his loss to IBM's chess-playing computer, Deep Blue; and how his legendary rivalry with Anatoly Karpov, Kasparov's predecessor as World Chess Champion, affected his own success. Kasparov also shares his solution to what he calls the champion's dilemma, a question for all world masters, whether they are in business, sports, or chess: Where does a virtuoso go after he has accomplished everything he's ever wanted to, even beyond his wildest imagination? If you are lucky, says Kasparov, your enemies will push you to be passionate about staying at the top.     

Equilibrium leadership in tax competition models with capital ownership: a rejoinder

This paper reconciles two opposite results in the tax competition literature. Kempf and Rota-Graziosi (J Public Econ 94(9–10):768–776, 2010) and Hindriks and Nishimura (J Public Econ 121:66–68, 2015) have shown that the two Stackelberg outcomes prevail as the subgame perfect equilibria when capital is entirely owned by nonresidents. However, Ogawa (Int Tax Public Finance 20(3):474–484, 2013) has shown that the simultaneous-move outcome prevails when capital is entirely owned by residents. We develop a model in which capital ownership can vary freely between these two polar cases. We show that there exists a unique degree of residential capital ownership such that the equilibrium switches from the Stackelberg to the simultaneous-move outcomes. The chance for the simultaneous-move outcome to prevail increases with the extent of production asymmetry between regions. Partial ownership also induces a novel effect of tax leadership that we call the preference reversion effect.     

Thought leadership in investment banking: The beginning of a new era

The paper argues that although considerations such as industry consolidation, the role of lending and the effects of technology are still important in shaping the future of investment banking, sustainable competitive advantage necessitates that emphasis is also placed on thought leadership. This entails quite a radical change in terms of the way in which the industry approaches the problem of competition and requires emphasis on value creation for all the constituent parts of the industry: corporations, investors, the banks themselves and research departments. Accordingly, the paper provides a rationale for this change and provides inter alia a range of examples to illustrate how thought leadership could lead to a fundamental change in the future of the investment banking industry.     

Negotiating without a net. A conversation with the NYPD's Dominick J. Misino

In some languages, the word for "business" is the same as the word for "negotiation." That's not really surprising: Every interaction--with customers, suppliers, and even partners and investors--entails negotiation. And some involve very high stakes: The breakdown in negotiations between Hewlett-Packard's management and its founding families, for instance, put the company's future in doubt. Dominick Misino is a man who knows about negotiating when the stakes are at their very highest. As a hostage negotiator for the New York Police Department, Misino successfully persuaded the hijacker of Lufthansa Flight 592 to lay down his gun and turn himself in. Misino spent the last six years of his career as a primary negotiator, handling more than 200 incidents and never losing a life. Since his retirement in 1995, he has taught negotiating skills to law enforcement officials, military personnel, and business executives. Anyone can become a crisis negotiator, Misino contends. It takes what he calls "applied common sense." Be polite. Listen. Acknowledge the other guy's point of view (no matter what it is). But it's clear that in dealing with hijackers, kidnappers, and child molesters, Misino is far from passive. Negotiation, he says, is really a series of small agreements, and he is adept at orchestrating those agreements from the start so that his adversary learns to trust him and come around to his point of view. In vivid and sometimes hair-raising detail, Misino demonstrates how he gets criminals to trust police officers enough to refrain from harming innocent parties and give themselves up. Many of the techniques he describes are surprisingly applicable to business negotiations, where the parties may seem equally intractable and failure is not an option.     

Technology and human vulnerability. A conversation with MIT's Sherry Turkle

For most of the last 50 years, technology knew its place. Yes, we all spent a lot of time with it, but even five years ago, few people would seriously claim that technology had taken over their lives. It's very different today. Technology is not only ubiquitous but has become highly intrusive as well. On the Internet, people invent imaginary identities in virtual chat rooms, playing out the lives they wish they really lived. Children are growing up with interactive toy animals that respond to them like real pets. Indeed, some critics claim that technology has not just entered our private lives but started to define them. If we want to be sure we'll like who we've become in 50 years, we need to take a closer look at the psychological effects of current and future technologies. The smartest people in technology have already started. Universities like MIT and Caltech have been pouring millions of dollars into researching what happens when technology and humanity meet. To learn more about this research, HBR senior editor Diane L. Coutu spoke with one of the field's most distinguished scholars: Sherry Turkle, MIT's Abby Rockefeller Mauzé Professor in the Program in Science, Technology, and Society and the author of Life on the Screen, which explores how the internet is changing the way we define ourselves. In a conversation with Coutu, Turkle discusses the psychological dynamics that can develop between people and their high-tech toys, describes ways in which machines might substitute for managers, and explains how technology is redefining what it means to be human. She warns that relatively small differences in technology design can have disproportionate effects on how humans relate to technology, to one another, and to themselves.     

Lessons in power: Lyndon Johnson revealed. A conversation with historian Robert A. Caro

No one can lead who does not first acquire power, and no leader can be great who does not know how to use that power. The trouble is that the combination of the two skills is rare. Amassing power requires ambition, a focused pragmatism, and a certain ruthlessness that is often at odds with the daring, idealistic vision needed to achieve great things with that power. The tension is as real in business as it is in politics. This magazine is replete with examples of successful senior managers who could not make the switch from ambitious executive to corporate leader because they did not know what to do with the power they had so expertly accumulated. Robert Caro is a student of power. For the past 27 years, the two-time Pulitzer prize-winning biographer of Robert Moses and Lyndon Johnson has focused on the question of how Johnson amassed and wielded power. Caro's deep understanding of the inner workings of power offers senior executives a nuanced picture of leadership at the highest level. In this wide-ranging conversation, Caro shares his insights about the nature of power, the complexity of ambition, and the role that the greater good can play in the making of a leader. Power doesn't always corrupt, he insists. But what it invariably does is reveal a leader's true nature. "Today, when CEOs have acquired more and more power to change our lives," Caro says,"they have become like presidents in their own right, and they, too, need to align themselves with something greater than themselves if they hope to become truly great leaders."     

Strategic entry and market leadership in a two-player real options game

We analyse the entry decisions of competing firms in a two-player stochastic real option game, when rivals earn different but correlated uncertain profitabilities from operating. In the presence of entry costs, decision thresholds exhibit hysteresis, the range of which is decreasing in the correlation between competing firms. A measure of the expected time of each firm being active in the market and the probability of both rivals entering within a finite time are explicitly calculated. The former (latter) is found to decrease (increase) with the volatility of relative firm profitabilities implying that market leadership is shorter-lived the more uncertain the industry environment. In an application of the model to the aircraft industry, we find that Boeing’s optimal response to Airbus’ launch of the A380 super carrier is to accommodate entry and supplement its current product line, as opposed to the riskier alternative of committing to the development of a corresponding super jumbo.     

Tax competition and federal equalization schemes with decentralized leadership

Regional governments compete by setting capital taxes in anticipation of the central government’s fiscal equalization and income redistribution policies. I start by demonstrating that the constrained socially optimal allocation satisfies the Pareto efficient conditions; therefore, it may be first best. It is also shown that the subgame perfect equilibrium for the game played by regional and central governments is socially optimal. The anticipation of equalization of marginal utilities of public consumption and equalization of marginal utilities of private consumption provides regional governments with correct incentives in the setting of capital taxes, preventing the phenomenon known as “race to the bottom.”     

Inflation and the Transition to a Market Economy: An Overview

European socialist economies were commonly characterized bylow or negligible open inflation, full employment, and stablerelative prices and real incomes. Associated features were significantrepressed or hidden inflation and disequilibria in goods markets.More recently, as economic and political reform has advanced,attention has shifted to translating repressed into open inflation.Where such reforms have proceeded against a background of amonetary overhang, the implications of that overhang for demand-sidepolicies have figured prominently. In all instances, however,the key underlying issue has been the transmission mechanismfor inflation once the initial impulse associated with priceliberalization has been imparted.     

Evidence of a leadership role in the Chilean stock exchanges

In our study of the two leading stock exchanges in Chile—the Santiago Stock Exchange (SSE) and the Electronic Stock Exchange (ESE)—we find that the SSE exhibits a leadership role over the ESE in terms of transmission of returns and volatility. These results indicate that prior empirical studies showing that the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) leads other exchanges is a result of market structure factors rather than a ‘U.S. effect’. The factors that lead to a leadership role are deeper liquidity, more effective monitoring, and a greater concentration of speculators. Markets possessing these factors will be the first to attract investors and will lead other exchanges. Although, the leadership role of the SSE creates a predictable flow of information between markets, the ability to create arbitrage opportunities is mitigated by transaction costs and the current order-processing mechanism in Chile. However, our results suggest that a market's leadership could result in arbitrage opportunities in countries with lower transaction costs or different order-processing mechanisms.     

Ecomuseums as cross-sector partnerships: governance,strategy and leadership

Ecomuseums are attracting increasing attention as means of preserving heritage and also impacting positively on social and economic issues. This paper contrasts ecomuseums with previous forms of cross-sector partnerships. The authors focus on the governance, strategy and leadership of the Flodden 1513 Ecomuseum. The findings have lessons for ecomuseums and other cross-sector partnerships both in and outside the UK.     

Impure public goods,matching grant rates and income redistribution in a federation with decentralized leadership and imperfect labor mobility

We examine the decentralized provision of an impure public good by regional governments in a federation similar in certain respects to both the European Union and the United States. The central authority redistributes income and provides matching grants on a per rate basis after it observes the regions’ contributions to the impure public good. Imperfectly mobile workers react to regional and central governments’ policies by establishing residence in their most preferred region. We show that the allocations of the impure public good and the population are generally efficient in a federation with decentralized leadership.     

Liquefying a Market: The Transition of LNG to a Traded Commodity

The Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) industry has grown significantly since it began a half‐century ago, and it will continue to diversify both its sources of supply and the contractual arrangements between suppliers and users. Economic theory says that contracting modes adapt to facilitate gains in efficiency, and that this process of adaptation responds to changes in technological, market, and regulatory factors. When an industry relies heavily on highly specialized assets with limited alternative uses, as is true of LNG, the use of longterm contracts (or vertical integration) will generally be more efficient than short‐term dealings. But once conditions begin to encourage vigorous competition among buyers and sellers, it becomes increasingly economical to rely on shorter‐term (and spot) markets for exchange. The history of the LNG industry supports these theoretical predictions, and illustrates the transition from one contracting mode to another. For most of its history, the specialization and scale of LNG assets dictated the predominant use of long‐term contracting. In recent years, however, market and regulatory changes have raised the demand for short‐term and spot contracting, which in turn has provided the impetus for a virtuous cycle of market liquidity. As buyers and sellers have become increasingly able to obtain or dispose of LNG in an active market, they have needed less protection against the opportunism of trading partners that long‐term contracts have provided in the past. Given this self‐reinforcing process, it is likely that the LNG market will soon look nothing like it did as recently as a decade ago. Buyers and sellers will rely on shorter‐term contracts, and the longerterm contracts that do exist will be linked to spot LNG prices rather than crude oil. Consumers and producers will also benefit from more flexible pricing that more accurately reflects rapidly changing fundamentals of supply and demand.     

Back-to-Back Loans: A Fraud in Transition

Case law relating to an auditor's detection of fraud has identified three fraud categories: "ingenious", those that arouse or ought to arouse the auditor's suspicions, and "well-known frauds". This paper argues that the extensive publicity given to Bond Corporation's use of back-to-back loans in 1988-89 to siphon $1.2 billion from Bell Resources resulted in this fraud being transfomed from ingenious to well-known. Detection processes have been developed for well-known frauds and this paper identifies certain "red flags'" associated with the back-to-back loan fraud that should facilitate its detection.     

世界向多极化、多货币体系发展

世界经济金融体系正在发生深刻变革。以中国、日本、韩国、东盟十国为代表的东方经济体具有超越西方经济体经济总量的潜力。在此背景下,需要倡导更积极的国际合作,共同致力于消除贫困、保护环境、消除收入分配不平等、应对人口结构变化挑战及加强国际和平领域合作等。此外,推动世界经济的可持续发展具有重要意义,特别是在能源结构转型、粮食生态保护、教育质量、饮食健康、城市建设及数字经济等领域。未来,世界将向多极化政治经济格局、多货币体系发展,建立更为合理的世界秩序。中国的经济发展及人民币国际化进程将有利于新格局的建立。