推进城投债向市政债转化的路径探索

将我国的城投债转化为市政债是规范地方政府举债行为、保障地方政府的合理融资需求和保护投资人利益的客观要求。应借鉴国外的先进经验，积极推动地方政府举债方式的转变。相比城投债，市政债具有偿债责任明确、透明度较高、投资者分散等优势。我国发展市政债，需要深化财税体制改革，建立科学透明的债务管理机制，完善债务监管体系及相关的配套政策。     

地方政府的隐性担保真的有效吗？——基于城投债发行定价的检验

本文对城投债和地方政府之间的关系纽带、地方政府对城投债的隐性担保问题进行了系统研究。基于2009年至2014年的城投债数据,我们发现:第一,无担保城投债与第三方担保城投债在发行利差上无显著差异,表明市场认为无担保城投债背后存在政府的隐性担保。第二,地方政府的财力状况会通过影响政府的担保能力和担保意愿的作用机制,进而影响城投债的发行定价。第三,宏观环境、债券特征、发行人规模会对城投债的发行定价产生显著影响,而城投公司的盈利能力不会对其产生显著影响,体现了城投公司形似“公司”实为“融资工具”的现实特点。这些结论对完善城投债的交易机制和发展未来的市政债有重要的借鉴意义。     

城投债已成市政债先驱

银行信贷这一地方融资平台通道受限之后,原本高涨的地方融资需求在受抑之下,已开始积极寻求其他通道实现融资目的。原本因缺乏有效担保而备受市场冷落的城投债、仍处酝酿之中的地方市政债,再度进入城市建设公司等地方融资平台的视线。根据相关媒体的披露：近期财政部和发改委均在制订地方融资平台的实施细则,其中发改委侧重于城投债操作细则的制定,财政部则倾向于市政债新规的探索。     

财经热点

中债登预警信用债倒债风险1月6日,中央国债登记结算有限责任公司发布"2012年银行间债市年报"。该年报警告称,随着信用债市场的超速发展,特别是城投类债券的迅猛扩张,2013年信用债爆发倒债危机的可能性将会加大。城投债潜存的风险仍然不容忽视,同时,地方政府为城投债提供隐性担保已经成为市场默认的潜规则。对此,中债登建议,放开商业银行承销城投类企业债,银监会定期公布地方融资平台判断标准,城投债适时向市政债转型,将地方政府的隐性担保显性化。     

我国城投债信用违约风险的实证分析

近年,随着城投债的爆发式增长,城投债的信用风险日益暴露。本文运用了Logistic模型对城投债违约风险成因进行了实证研究,研究显示地方财政收入增长率、公司盈利模式对城投债违约风险具有影响,并基于实证研究提出了城投债信用违约风险控制的建议。     

土地资源配置、隐性担保与城投债发行利差

本文选取2010-2020年270个地级市数据,研究土地资源配置对城投债发行利差的影响及机制。研究发现:土地资源配置降低了东部地区城投债发行利差,提升了中西部地区城投债发行利差;在经济发展水平较高的地区土地资源配置降低城投债发行利差的效果更加明显;地方政府隐性担保对土地资源配置影响城投债利差的机制效应存在差异,表现为东部地区的弱化效应,中西部地区的强化效应;将城投债分为具有第三方担保与无担保城投债进行异质性分析,发现土地资源配置仅对无担保城投债发行利差有影响,对具有第三方担保城投债则无影响。     

我国城投债风险分析与对策

随着近几年经济刺激计划的加大,我国城投债的发行量越来越大,朝着恶化的趋势发展。本文分析城投债的问题,同时分析了城投债可能引发的风险,并提出了防范城投债风险的措施。     

我国城投债违约风险防控研究——以河南省为例

在我国的经济运行和基础设施建设中,城投债扮演着一个十分重要的角色,其所融资金有效缓解了地方政府财政压力。但随着城投债市场的进一步扩大,市场不完善所导致的诸多问题凸显出来,近年来,不断有城投债实质性或技术性违约给我们敲响了警钟。本文以河南省城投债为例,从地方财政和城投债的规模、信用等级、剩余期限等方面入手研究河南省城投债的风险。同时,据此提出划定责任范围、严格监管、构建信用评价体系、多层次发展市场和推进专项债的发展等建议,为城投债的进一步发展提供参考。     

城投债违约风险防控——以河南省为例

在我国的经济运行和基础设施建设中,城投债扮演着一个十分重要的角色,其所融资金有效缓解了地方政府财政压力。但随着城投债市场的进一步扩大,市场不完善所导致的诸多问题凸显出来,近年来,不断有城投债实质性或技术性违约给我们敲响警钟。本文以河南省城投债为例,从地方财政和城投债的规模、信用等级、剩余期限等方面入手研究河南省城投债的风险。同时,据此提出划定责任范围、严格监管、构建信用评价体系、多层次发展市场和推进专项债的发展等建议,为城投债的进一步发展提供参考。     

论我国城投债发展现状、问题及建议

在4万亿投资计划的刺激下,地方政府纷纷建立投融资平台筹措城市建设资金,城投债正是在这样的背景下获得了快速的发展,缓解了建设资金短缺的局面。但最近城投债暴露出来的诸多问题,使得市场极为关注城投债风险,如何规范城投债的发行和运行有着重要的意义。本文在分析城投债形成的机理、发展现状及存在问题的基础上,提出几点建议。     

On the Value of Municipal Bond Insurance: An Empirical Analysis

Using a large sample of municipal bond data from 2001 to 2010 in the U.S., this paper documents the time variation of the value of municipal bond insurance, estimated from the insured and uninsured bonds yield at issue differentials. We find that insured municipal bonds carry significant lower yields at issue compared to those of the equivalent uninsured bonds before 2008. However, this cost saving disappeared with the aftermath of the subprime credit crisis. We find that the supply of bonds and the level of market interest rates to have significant positive impacts on the time‐varying value of bond insurance. We also detect asymmetric response of these yield differentials to rises and declines of market interest rates. Economic intuition suggests that the value of municipal bond insurance is a function of business cycles but our tests support the contrary, which may be explained by the habitat preference of municipal bonds issues.     

Distance Still Matters: Evidence from Municipal Bond Underwriting

Using a sample of municipal bond offerings, I find that "local"investment banks have substantial comparative and absolute advantagesover nonlocal counterparts-–locals charge lower fees andsell bonds at lower yields. Local investment banks’ strongestcomparative advantage is at underwriting bonds with higher creditrisk and bonds not rated by rating agencies. These findingssuggest that high-risk bonds and nonrated bonds are more difficultto evaluate and market, and that investment banks with a localpresence are better able to assess "soft" information and placedifficult bond issues.     

国外市政债券银行的运作及启示

市政债券是国外市政建设融资的重要方式。市政债券的参与可以增强债券信用等级、扩大发行规模,从而降低隔资成本。随着我国经济的发展、资本市场的深化、产业结构的调整,培育和发展我国的市政债券市场已经势在必行。     

关于发展我国市政债券市场的思考

目前地方政府面对发行市政债券的制度性障碍，自发寻求融资渠道，而这又显现出较大的风险。本文在分析发展我国市政债券市场重要现实意义的基础上，从法律、偿债机制及风险管理等方面提出政策建议。     

Orange County Bankruptcy: Financial Contagion in the Municipal Bond and Bank Equity Markets

We examine the spillover wealth effects of the Orange County, California bankruptcy announcement in December 1994 on municipal bonds, municipal bond funds, and bank stocks. This bankruptcy is prominent because of unprecedented losses and because it was caused by a highly leveraged derivatives strategy rather than a shortage of tax revenues and excess spending. We find contagion in the bond market with significantly negative abnormal returns for municipal bond funds without direct exposure to Orange County and for non‐Orange County municipal bonds. In addition, our findings suggest the contagion spills over to the common stocks of investment and commercial banks that deal in or use derivatives; however, the equities of banks unexposed to derivatives are not affected.     

我国发展市政债券的战略选择

从国际经验来看,市政债券是地方基础设施建设的重要融资工具,因此我国发展市政债券具有重要意义。该文从市政债券的分类与特性出发,分析了不同类型债券的特征以及发行所需要的条件,并提出了发行市政债券的战略选择：即优先发展收入债券,而一般责任债券因发行条件在整体上尚不成熟,应坚持先试点后推广的发展路径。     

债券违约对流动性影响的传染效应研究

2014年以来我国信用债市场违约事件频发,信用风险的积聚可能引发债券市场流动性恶化。本文以2014―2019年交易所和银行间市场信用债为研究对象,实证考察违约事件对债券流动性影响的传染效应。研究发现:违约事件在同一发行主体的债券之间具有流动性传染效应,当公司的某期债券出现违约时,公司其他未到期债券的流动性水平显著下降;违约事件对同行业其他公司债券的流动性具有传染效应,当行业中出现债券违约事件时,行业内其他公司的债券流动性显著降低;违约事件爆发越密集或者违约事件越严重,对债券流动性的负面影响越大,而且民营企业债受到的影响要大于国有企业债,低信用等级债受到的影响要大于高信用等级债;在市场密集爆发违约事件或出现较为严重的违约事件时期,宏观流动性增加能够改善债券流动性。     

关于发展我国市政债券及市场的几点思考

我国＂十二五＂期间将积极稳妥推进城镇化,提升城镇发展质量和水平。在资金来源渠道有限的情况下,我们可以借鉴美国发行市政债券促进地方城市基础建设的经验和做法,改变我国城镇基础建设设施落后,投入不足的现状,按照市场经济的要求,逐步建立市场化、多渠道、多层次的资金筹措新体制。通过发行市政债券将更多的社会资金引入公共部门,推动我国城镇化进程。     

Municipal Bond Demand Premiums and Bond Price Volatility: A Note

The behavior of different components of municipal bond yields may have a significant impact upon bond price behavior. Specifically, demand premiums created by banks may stabilize bond yields in some maturity ranges but not in others; for example, short-term municipals may be stabilized but not long-term. This research implies that bank demand behavior may create demand premiums that stabilize prices of short-term municipal bonds relative to those of Treasury bonds of like maturity. While this implication is inconsistent with the residual theory of bank demand, it is consistent with the tax-shield theory attributed to Hendershott and Koch [3, 4].     

Bond Selection for Managed Portfolios

Abstract:   Investors in coupon bonds evaluate them based upon financial considerations such as coupon rate, time‐to‐maturity, callability, convertibility, and financial condition of the issuer. These investors regard promised yield as only a rough measure of the reward a bond offers to compensate them for the pure time‐value‐of‐money and the financial risks to which they are exposed. Hence, they need a more meaningful measure of reward to facilitate comparisons among coupon bonds. The purpose of this paper is to describe an alternative heuristic approach to the task of making such comparisons. The approach produces a simple ordinal measure of reward, called the 'indifference spread,' that considers implicitly the potential sources of return to, as well as many of the risks associated with, investment in coupon bonds. For any coupon bond, the indifference spread method permits assessment of relative reward offered for the combined exposures to price and call risks, while also reasonably accommodating possible sale anytime prior to maturity. Once an investor (e.g., money manager) identifies indifference spreads for all bonds under consideration as of any moment in time, he/she can then draw conclusions regarding their relative values at that time based, in large part, on these spreads.