基于利率角度的我国金融市场化改革风险与对策

一国金融体系的改革,都是以金融市场化为目标的.而利率作为衡量投资行为的价格成本,影响着金融市场交易活动的方方面面.因此,利率市场化是金融市场化改革过程的核心环节.通过分析以利率为核心的金融市场化发展趋势以及改革模式,找出利率市场化所产生的问题.着重研究利率市场化产生的金融风险以及对金融危机的诱导机理,进而完善利率市场化对货币政策的传导作用,并为维护我国利率市场化条件下的金融安全提供对策与建议.     

从国际经验看我国利率市场化的制度安排

随着国际经贸一体化的深入发展和入世后我国金融领域开放步伐的加快,迫切要求我国深化金融体制改革,尽快与国际金融市场接轨。为此,作为金融体制改革核心的利率市场化改革在我国已是刻不容缓。如何成功推行利率市场化改革?从国际实践经验来看,利率市场化改革既有引发金融动荡的惨痛教训,也有促进资源配置效率提高的成功范例。对于各国改革成败的关键,有学者认为在于改革模式的差异,笔者认为,改革模式是一方面原因,另一方面还在于各国不同的制度安排,正是由于利率市场化改革中各国制度环境的不同导致了截然不同的改革效果。     

利率市场化改革的国际经验与我国的改革路径选择

美国和日本的利率市场化改革采取的是渐进方式,利率市场化改革与金融创新同步进行,最终达到了预期的目标。阿根廷和智利的利率市场化改革采取的是激进方式,由于缺乏整体设计,速度太快,并伴随着其他方面的金融自由化,导致了最终失败的结果。我国利率市场化改革已经取得很大进展,但远未完成。借鉴国际经验,根据我国的实际情况,通过银行理财产品的发行、扩大企业发债规模、赋予商业银行更大的利率浮动权、加快金融创新和发展中间业务,将有助于利率市场化改革稳步向前推进。     

我国利率市场化改革措施探析

利率是整个金融市场和金融体系中最能动最活跃的因素。利率市场化是我国金融产业走向市场的重要步骤之一,也是国民经济运行体制转变到社会主义市场经济上来的基本标志之一。随着我国市场经济的不断发育和壮大,金融体制改革的深化发展以及和国际市场的逐步接轨,原有的利率体制已成为我国改革进程中的"瓶颈",利率市场化问题显得日益突出和重要,迫切需要改革现行的利率管理体制,完善利率体系,加快利率市场化改革进程。     

金融约束理论下我国利率市场化改革的实现路径

本文通过总结国外利率市场化改革的经验教训,剖析金融发展理论的局限性,分析利率市场化改革必须关注的风险因素,对金融约束理论下我国利率市场化改革的实现方式进行了探析,为未来我国利率市场化改革战略战术的制定,尤其是"十二五"期间,我国金融行业改革与发展的进一步推进,提出了几个方面的具体建议。     

从金融创新看我国利率市场化的重要意义

利率市场化改革是目前我国金融创新的核心和关键.本文分别论述了利率市场化改革与金融制度创新、金融组织创新和金融工具创新之间的理论机理与内在联系.     

我国利率市场化进程及对经济金融敏感性问题分析

摘要：利率市场化是我国金融改革发展的目标之一,其改革进程既涉及金融体制又涵盖经济体制,我国经济特定的体制背景和金融环境决定了利率市场化改革的稳健性。本文就我国利率市场化进程进行总结简述,并对经济金融敏感性问题进行了分析．同时就我国实现利率市场化目标得出了相关结论。     

新时期推进我国存款利率市场化的策略探析

推进存款利率市场化是我国利率市场化改革的最后一步,也是新一轮金融深化改革的核心。新时期,随着央行相关政策的出台、互联网金融的冲击,我国迎来了深化利率市场化改革的重要阶段。本文阐述了新时期推进我国存款利率市场化的必要性,分析了现阶段推进存款利率市场化存在的问题,并结合实际提出了相应的改革策略。     

新时期推进我国存款利率市场化的策略探析

推进存款利率市场化是我国利率市场化改革的最后一步,也是新一轮金融深化改革的核心。新时期,随着央行相关政策的出台、互联网金融的冲击,我国迎来了深化利率市场化改革的重要阶段。本文阐述了新时期推进我国存款利率市场化的必要性,分析了现阶段推进存款利率市场化存在的问题,并结合实际提出了相应的改革策略。     

放开贷款利率管制的效应

放开金融机构贷款利率管制,是我国宏观调控制度的重大改革,是利率市场化改革的重大突破,标志着我国金融改革的进一步深化。放开贷款利率管制是利率市场化持续改革的必然结果。这些年来,我国利率市场化改革已取得     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。