欧元区债务危机背后的国际政治博弈

欧元从诞生起就是国际战略平衡的产物,欧元区债务危机的爆发也似乎是一种国际战略博弈的产物。随着欧洲债务危机的深化,人们似乎忘记了美国才是这场国际金融与债务危机的起源地。然而,美国的危机似乎并未结束。为了解除危机,美欧激烈竞争,吸引新鲜资本。欧洲要走出货币危机,似乎需要更进一步的财政一体化。方向虽然定出,但要具体落实还需时日。中国应支持欧洲统一财政,渡过危机。让欧盟在世界舞台上扮演重要一极的角色对中国来说非常重要。     

主权货币国际化内在矛盾及其策略选择——兼论国际货币体系多元发展路线的历史逻辑

美元作为主权货币国际化,在适应并促进世界经济增长的同时,其内在矛盾成为世界经济失衡、汇率大幅波动以及流动性泛滥的重要因素。解决美国主权货币国际化助推的贸易赤字、财政赤字和巨额债务问题,需要美国政府财政政策、货币政策和产业政策的重大调整,还需要国际货币体系的重大改革,从美元主导的单一货币模式转变为多元模式。美元、欧元以及正在走向国际化的人民币共同构成代表和主导北美、欧洲、亚洲等三大经济圈、覆盖全球经济体的国际货币体系。研究主权货币国际化的内在矛盾以及国际货币体系多元发展路线的历史逻辑,对有效应对复杂多变的国际经济环境,加快人民币国际化进程具有理论和决策参考价值。     

Sectoral Interests and Global Money: Renminbi, Dollars and the Domestic Foundations of International Currency Policy

In deciding whether to support an international role of their country’s currency, national policymakers are often influenced by lobbying from domestic sectoral groups. While these groups will be consistently more interested in some implications of international currency issuance than others, their specific preferences are likely to be highly context specific. Looking at the cases of the United States and China, we anticipate that domestic sectoral lobbying is unlikely to pressure either the US government to defend the dollar’s international role vigorously or the Chinese government to internationalize the renminbi fully. From this domestic sectoral perspective, the future looks to be characterized by reluctant monetary leaders rather than increasingly aggressive currency competition between the United States and China.     

中国医药产业R&D人力资源发展研究

文章通过收集和分析我国医药产业R&D人力资源连续13年的统计数据以及欧洲、美国的相关行业数据.归纳了我国医药产业R&D人力资源的现状和发展状况,并从国际对比的角度出发,就我国医药产业R&D人力资源发展战略提出了因应对策和建议.     

国际金融危机对全球银行产业竞争格局的影响

国际金融危机对美欧银行的业绩产生了巨大冲击,但对美欧银行的资本实力和资产规模并没有形成显著的影响。研究显示,美欧银行的竞争优势仍然存在,国际金融危机没有从根本上改变美欧银行主导全球银行产业的竞争格局。     

On the Scope for International Tax Cooperation: The Role of Capital Controls

Tax competition between independent authorities is known to lead to inefficient outcomes, implying there is scope for cooperation. In an international framework where the authorities are national governments, the undesirable features of tax competition may alternatively be mitigated by imposing restrictions on international capital flows. Using a two-country model it is shown that capital controls may fully remedy the adverse effects of tax competition and thereby render tax cooperation superfluous. In more general cases, however, capital controls have some undesirable side-effects, leaving room for cooperative actions. Moreover, the mere option of imposing capital controls may promote the implementation of tax cooperation.     

The European economy in an expanding world

Summary Postwar economic development in Europe can be subdivided in two periods. In the first subperiod 1950–1973 growth is determined by catching up vis-d-vis the US. The second subperiod 1973–1993 is characterised by a reorientation with respect to the international division of labour. This sets the stage for future developments, which are presented in the form of three different scenarios. In the European Decline scenario Europe cannot match developments in the US and Japan. As appears from a scenario called Fortress Europe import protection provides no sensible solution. To compete on a world scale Europe needs more technological dynamics as sketched in the European Recovery scenario. Calculations of future paths are based on the WorldScan model of the Central Planning Bureau.Theo van de Klundert is Professor of Economics at Tilburg University. Ben Geurts and Hans Timmer are staff members of the Central Planning Bureau, The Hague. We are indebted to Martin Fase and Simon Kuipers for useful comments on an earlier version of the paper.     

国际金融危机与美国的单极地位——当前美国的国家实力、国内制度和国际战略调整

国内政治经济制度和国家从国际秩序中获益性将决定一定时期内该大国的兴衰趋势。在分析国际金融危机与美国的单极地位时,作者在考察国际金融危机对主要大国和地区所造成的冲击时发现,美国所受到的冲击相对较轻,而它的综合国力、失业率和国际竞争力指标都仍然领先,即便从短期效应来说,国际金融危机致使美国实力衰落的观点值得质疑。从应对金融危机的经验和美国社会的人口结构等因素来看,美国的优势仍然存在。在短期内,整个美国社会并没有因为金融危机而出现大的动荡。从长期来说,国际金融危机可能会促进美国国内政治和经济制度的改良,也有利于奥巴马政府调整国际战略,避免承担过多的国际责任和过度扩张,进而重振美国在国际秩序中的领导地位。在这些调整过程中,如果奥巴马政府采取了一种稳健的方式,坚持自由市场的基本原则和分权制衡的政治传统,经历了国际金融危机的美国霸权及其单极地位相反有可能会进一步得到加强。     

美国债务结构、“国际货币”地位及其未来潜质

美国因公共债务率和财政赤字过高等问题,第一次丧失了"AAA"长期主权债务评级。虽然与欧债危机相比,美国债务风险相对有限,但美国作为全球第一大经济体,美元作为国际货币,其债务经济发展模式是否可持续对全球金融的影响更加深远。中美两国经济已高度相互依赖,美国债务危机的解决路径与成效,会直接影响到我国经济与金融走势。     

The value of Chinese patents: An empirical investigation of citation lags

China has been experiencing a substantial growth in patent applications. But is this increase accompanied by a similar increase in patent value? To assess this question, we examine the citation lag of Chinese patents as a proxy of patent value in comparison with patents from the US, Europe, Japan, and Korea. Our empirical analysis comprises a unique data set of 60,000 patents with priority years between 2000 and 2010. Utilizing Cox regressions, our results show that Chinese patents suffer from a large citation lag in comparison to international patents, indicating a lower value. This is especially true for patents filed domestically. However, we find empirical support for an increasing patent value in more recent patents. China shows a strong dynamic in the field of patenting and our results suggest that the gap between Chinese patents and international patents might narrow down in the near future.     

百年未有之大变局与中国共产党外交领导力

当今世界正处于百年未有之大变局,坚持走和平发展道路的中国日益走近世界舞台中央。面对世界大变局,主要大国间的竞争更加激烈和复杂,其核心内容之一是国际领导力竞争。国际领导力融合国家实力和国际影响力两大基本要素,是主观因素与客观条件交互作用的结果。作为新型大国,中国虽已在某些领域形成国际领导力,但就更广泛领域和更高层次而言仍存在不足。中国国际领导力的提升需要通过外交领导力提升来实现,作为执政党的中国共产党的外交领导力提升自然就成为中国外交领导力提升的核心内容。面对机遇与挑战并存、变数与希望同在的当今世界,中国共产党外交领导力提升的战略选择应当是:坚持中国与世界共同发展目标,把促进发展作为第一要务;坚持独立自主的外交原则,不结盟、"不打牌";始终站在国际道义制高点上,坚持正确义利观;坚持推动构建人类命运共同体,努力为世界谋大同;在国际事务中发挥引领、协调、塑造和示范作用,积极推进外交体制机制现代化。     

从社会保障角度研究人工成本与企业成本竞争力的关系

人工成本低廉一直是我国企业重要竞争优势所在。但是,随着经济的发展和工资水平的逐渐提高,以及我国社会保障制度的日益健全,国际经济体系中企业责任要求日益完备,企业继续采取低工资、低成本进行国际竞争的空间越来越小。基于此,对我国目前的人工成本状况进行分析,从社会保障的角度提出相关对策,对于维持和提高我国企业成本竞争力,促进国民经济发展,构建和谐社会具有重要的现实意义。本文的目的就在于对这个问题进行一些初步的探讨。     

国际原油价格波动对我国宏观经济影响的实证分析

本文首先运用现代非均衡经济理论分析国际原油价格对我国宏观经济的作用机制,发现国际原油价格与我国经济增长和PPI之间存在一定的关系。然后在结构VAR模型的基础上,讨论了国际原油价格波动对我国经济增长和PPI的动态影响。     

International effects of China's rise and transition: Neoclassical and Keynesian perspectives

Opinion over the global implications of China's rise is divided between critics and proponents. Critics see it as having developed at the expense of both investment and employment in the US, Europe and Japan. Proponents emphasise improvements in the terms of trade and reductions to the cost of financing that stem from China's supply of light manufactures, its demand for Western capital and luxury goods and its high saving. The criticism implies Keynesian assumptions while proponents take a neoclassical perspective. In this paper, both are embodied in a global macro-model that emphasises bilateral linkages via trade and investment, with monetary spill-overs represented by globally integrated bond markets. Net gains are suggested for the US and Europe from China's successful export-oriented growth, though there are partially offsetting Keynesian effects. China's recent slower, more consumption focussed, growth appears also to be beneficial in those regions and in Japan notwithstanding terms of trade losses.     

Bank dependency on foreign funding and global liquidity shocks: The importance of US monetary policy for a developing country

We examine international spillover effects of US monetary policy on bank lending in Cambodia, using unique data about loan disbursements and the funding structures of Cambodian banks from 2013Q1 to 2019Q2. The banking sector in a developing country is likely dependent on foreign funding, while the dependency could be the source of vulnerability to international monetary and economic conditions. We empirically document that US monetary policy is likely to be transmitted to Cambodian bank lending through foreign funding. We also document that Cambodian banks change their risk-taking behavior in response to the spillover effects of US monetary policy. Furthermore, these results are robust for US monetary policy, but weak and not robust for the monetary policies of the Cambodian bank’s major shareholders’ home countries, suggesting that US monetary policy should be primarily taken into account in supervising banks that are reliant on foreign funding, in addition to domestic economic conditions.     

UK Industrial Policy: Old Tunes on New Instruments?

This paper discusses the current Labour government's industrialpolicy—as most recently reflected in its document on manufacturingstrategy—in the context of industrial policy in the UKover the last 50 years and the form that it has taken elsewherein Europe. It concludes that the thematic priorities for UKindustrial policy in the 1960s—international competitiveness,innovation, competition, and skills—continue to be thekey themes of UK policy today. The paper presents data thatillustrate the gaps that exist in key indicators of performancebetween the UK and its main economic competitors. The differencebetween the 1960s and the 2000s is that there are new instrumentsof policy. Two areas in particular are focused on—competitionpolicy and technology policy—and an attempt is made toassess the likely effectiveness of these new instruments. Thepaper concludes that the international evidence base for thesenew approaches is reasonably robust but that it is still toosoon to tell if they are having the hoped-for impact on theperformance of the UK economy.     

Regulation of international roaming data services within the EU

Europe has been the first region to intervene on the market for international roaming services. The first regulation was introduced in 2007 and has since then been revised several times. The latest revision took place in the summer 2012. This paper discusses the new legislation in view of recent market developments from a technological, economic and a regulatory perspective. The paper concludes that roaming charges have been reduced substantially since the introduction of prices caps, but still the charges are far above a level, which can be justified by the production costs. A number of alternatives to tradition roaming have been developed, but so far their impact on competition have been limited, and it will take some years before the present regulation can be lifted.     

美、日中小企业技术创新比较研究

对于中小企业来说，技术创新是极其重要的。当经济全球化的趋势日益扩大、国际性竞争日趋激烈的时候，是技术创新给予了中小企业的存在和发展以最强有力的支持。在美国，由中小企业所开展的技术创新在很多领域已经超过了大企业，尤其是那些掌握尖端技术的中小企业已经成为技术创新的主导；日本中小企业的技术创新活动在近几年问也取得了长足的进步，促进了企业的发展。美国中小企业技术创新的构成和实际状况与日本的中小企业相比存在着差异，因此，对美、日中小企业技术创新的构成和实际状况进行详细的分析和比较具有一定的现实意义。     

The Future of Multilateralism in the Post-pandemic World

This paper applies an endogenous institutionalist framework to understand the evolution of the rules-based international trading system since the end of World War II. We argue that the initial success of the General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs and re-enforcement that led to the formation of the WTO can be explained by three major factors: the hegemonic position of the US, the belief that international trade would foster prosperity and peace, and Cold War politics. However, declining US hegemony along with a shift in global comparative advantage in labor-intensive manufacturing led to a shift from multilateral towards preferential trade agreements since the 1990s. Today, the WTO faces several new challenges, including increasing geo-political competition between the US and China, increasing digitization of commerce, and disrupted supply chains following COVID-19. A functioning WTO that facilitates global economic re-integration remains crucial to ensure a strong recovery from the pandemic and continued long-term prosperity and stability of the global economy.     

纺织产业转型与技术创新:国际借鉴与启示

纺织业作为我国的传统产业,对国民经济的发展起着非常重要的作用。但是后配额时代、无配额时代的到来,使我国纺织业面临着更激烈的国际竞争。通过系统比较美国、日本、欧盟、韩国、印度和巴基斯坦纺织工业的技术创新和产业升级路径,为我国提供了有益的借鉴和启示。促进我国纺织业技术创新与产业升级,应加大政府的政策支持力度,努力推进战略重组和产业升级,积极进行海外生产型战略的实验,多渠道促进产业结构升级。