对反思改革的几点思考

自2004年夏天以来,我国社会上掀起了反思改革的浪潮。有人认为,当前反思改革中出现的分歧是要不要改革的分歧,仿佛一方坚持改革,另一方则反对改革。有的人提出一套改革的主张,却不允许别人有不同的看法,谁不赞成他的主张,就是反对改革。他们摆出一副“唯我独改”的架势,力图用“反对改革”这顶大帽子堵住不同意他们改革主张的人的嘴。实际上当前的问题不是要不要坚持改革,而是要不要必须坚持改革的社会主义方向。一句话,是两种改革观的争论。     

Output and unemployment dynamics in transition

This paper examines transition dynamics in a search economy. We contrast two extreme cases: a completely unexpected reform and a fully anticipated reform. We show that announcing the reform in advance leads to stagnation in anticipation and output cycles after the implementation, that are more volatile than had a reform of identical magnitude been implemented immediately. However, the more volatile output trajectory of the anticipated case yields a higher PDV of output than an unanticipated reform of equal magnitude. This suggests that an anticipated reform is better than an unanticipated reform, even though the former induces greater volatility.     

“局部改革的陷阱”:层次性分析及理论拓展

"局部改革的陷阱"是转型经济学的重要理论范式。在早期的研究中,既得利益集团往往被视为局部改革的结果,容易成为改革的反对力量;但后期的研究证明,局部性改革存在两种相反的可能性,即获得继续改革的动力或者形成改革的阻力。在拓展的研究中,从市场经济制度层次性的角度来看,既得利益集团的形成并不是某种特定改革方式的结果,而是市场经济改革的必然产物;无论是全面推进的改革,还是局部先行的改革,改革都必须建立在全民福利增进的基础上,并保持阶段性利益调整和体现社会公平的本质,否则,改革的陷阱就难以有效避免。     

强制性制度变迁周期的实证分析

将制度量化,使用动态优化工具推导了政府主导的强制性制度变迁情形下,我国最优改革速度与最优改革路径。结果表明,我国改革具有周期性特征,并且改革周期性具有内生性;最优改革速度随时间衰减,并且衰减力度递增;改革速度始终大于零,改革始终在推进;最优改革路径选择依赖于最优改革速度和改革起点,并且最优改革路径关于改革速度递减,关于改革初始条件递增。使用我国市场化数据进行实证分析,对命题进行检验,结果支持我国强制性改革周期的存在性,支持了相关命题。     

ANTIDUMPING REFORM IN THE WTO: A PESSIMISTIC APPRAISAL

Abstract.  Evidence presented in this paper suggests that substantial, and perhaps even modest, antidumping reform is unlikely to occur in the near future in multilateral trade negotiations. One reason is that the growing list of countries that use antidumping extensively has created new constituencies that will resist reform. Second, traditional antidumping users, especially the USA, have shown strong resistance to further reform and have implemented past reform in a minimalist fashion. Even if substantial changes are forthcoming, experience with antidumping reform from the Uruguay Round means that the economic impact of reform could be limited.     

我国改革的周期性变化规律及新时代价值*

本文通过回顾中国改革40年历程发现，改革呈现出明显的周期性变化规律，出现了一个中周期和三个短周期。改革周期性变化规律形成的根本原因是，改革作为生产关系的变革和调整，必须遵循生产关系适应生产力发展变化而变化的运动规律，再加之我国改革采取了渐进式改革的方式，这就使生产关系的变化具有了阶段性特征，并引起了生产力发展的阶段性变化，形成了改革周期与经济周期的高度吻合。改革的周期性变化规律对于新时代全面深化改革具有重要的意义：经济面临下行压力，恰是改革最佳窗口期；改革进入新周期，才能孕育经济运行新周期；激发人民的改革激情与活力，才能推动改革周期性运动；加强顶层设计，才能推动改革全面深化。     

转轨经济中自然垄断产业的竞争与所有制研究

竞争与所有制改革是目前自然垄断产业规制改革的主要趋势.但原有的理论和经验都是针对发达国家而言,对于转轨国家如何协调经济转轨与自然垄断产业改革却没有现成的理论与经验.因此,本文关注转轨国家自然垄断产业引入竞争可能性以及所有制改革模式的选择.研究发现:考虑管理成本,转轨国家自然垄断产业引入竞争是可能的;改革进程取决于转轨国家市场发育程度以及改革的初始条件;混合所有制的企业竞争模式更适合于转轨国家自然垄断产业的改革.     

中国国有银行改革的比较制度分析

中国国有银行经历了多次改革而未能实现预期的商业化改革目标,甚至在其股份制改革后也很难说建立了现代银行制度。本文利用比较制度分析方法,从制度互补视角对此原因进行分析,本文的结论是,中国的金融改革只是经济体制整体改革的一部分,国有银行改革是在与企业改革和政府职能转变的互动中实现的。     

日本邮政民营化改革解析及启示

日本邮政民营化改革的基本背景是邮政公社在日本邮政事务中居绝对垄断的地位,这样的业务结构有诸多弊端。邮政民营化改革是小泉政府实现其"小政府、大经济"施政纲领的具体体现。尽管邮政民营化改革议案最初遭到了部分国民、在野党和执政党的反对,但小泉所采取的"问信于民"的策略使邮政民营化改革议案最终获得了通过。日本邮政民营化改革对中国邮政体制改革的启示是:放宽市场准入,引入竞争机制;重视体制改革中的利益集团问题;重视"问信于民"的改革策略。     

School finance reform: Assessing general equilibrium effects

In 1994 the state of Michigan implemented one of the most comprehensive school finance reforms undertaken to date in any of the states. Understanding the effects of the reform is thus of value in informing other potential reform initiatives. In addition, the reform and associated changes in the economic environment provide an opportunity to assess whether a simple general equilibrium model can be of value in framing the study of such reform initiatives. In this paper, we present and use such a model to derive predictions about the effects of the reform on housing prices and neighborhood demographic compositions. Broadly, our analysis implies that the effects of the reform and changes in the economic environment are likely to have been reflected primarily in housing prices and only modestly on neighborhood demographics. We find that evidence for the Detroit metropolitan area from the decade encompassing the reform is largely consistent with the predictions of the model.     

Reform reversals and output growth in transition economies*

This paper tests whether reform reversals during transition carry an economic cost. Reform is measured by an average reform index, while reform reversals are characterized by a drop in the average reform index. In the standard empirical framework the current level of reform affects growth negatively, while the lagged level affects growth positively. This non‐linear effect implies a counterintuitive, short‐lived positive effect of a reversal. In a simultaneous equation system with growth and the level of reform as dependent variables we explicitly introduce a reversal parameter. Empirical results suggest that reversals have an immediate negative impact on real output growth. Controlling for the level of reform shows that reversals are more costly at higher levels of reform.     

Education on the cheap: The long-run effects of a free compulsory education reform in rural china

This paper evaluates the long-run effects of a free compulsory education reform in rural China on individuals’ educational attainment, cognitive achievement and health. We exploit the cross-province variation in the roll-out of the reform and apply a difference-in-differences strategy to identify the causal effects of the reform on the outcomes. We find that the reform exposure, measured by the number of semesters that an individual is supposed to be exposed to the free compulsory education, is positively associated with individuals’ educational attainment and cognitive achievement measured by math test scores in early adulthood. The reform effects on educational attainment become greater in the longer term. Moreover, the reform effect on educational attainment is stronger for individuals with less-educated fathers.     

经济转轨中自然垄断行业规制改革——竞争、所有制与激励机制选择

竞争与所有制改革是目前自然垄断行业规制改革的主要趋势.但原有的理论和经验都是针对发达国家而言,对于转轨国家如何协调经济转轨与自然垄断行业改革却没有现成的理论与经验.所以,本文从转轨国家自然垄断行业引入竞争可能性以及所有制改革模式的选择入手,研究在加入策略性激励机制后竞争与所有制模式的不同组合对自然垄断企业绩效的影响.研究发现,转轨国家自然垄断行业改革进程取决于转轨国家市场发育程度以及改革的初始条件;混合所有制的企业竞争模式比完全私有化的社会福利水平要高,也更适合于转轨国家自然垄断行业改革的所有制选择模式.     

Effects of the Reform of the Social Medical Insurance System in Japan

We estimate outpatient medical care demand functions and examine the effects of the 1997 reform of the medical insurance system. We focus on the issue of which persons have been most affected by the reform and on the extent to which price elasticities have changed since the reform. The estimation results show that the reform affected mainly dependants' demand for medical care, which implies that all members of the household shared the increase in the medical costs of the head of the household. Price elasticities ranged from −0.18 to −0.26 before the reform, and from −0.08 to −0.11 after the reform.
JEL Classification Numbers: C35, I10, I18.     

中国渐进改革成本与国有银行财务重组

中国渐进改革的平稳推进得益于新增改革成本能很快地被财政支付或通过国有银行转移,对渐进改革走势影响更大的是被转移至银行的存量成本。实证数据显示,国有银行财务重组中的不良资产处置过程客观上形成了对这一成本的发现机制,但现行的财务重组方案并没有对所有成本进行最终支付,而大量采取了“后摊”与“隐性负债”的处置方式,这是中国渐进式改革的特征体现,其结果是改革成本向国家财政与中央银行的再次转移。中央银行作为“政府的银行”承担改革成本有其现实的必要性和理论的可行性,但由此造成的估值损失应该及时进行确认和记录的会计操作,中央财政预算要反映央行因参与财务重组而导致的实际资本下降。     

A dirty deed done dirt cheap: Reporting the blame of a national reform on local politicians

This paper tests the hypothesis that upper-level governments can transfer the accountability of the costs of a reform to a lower one. The reform of the school week in France provides the ground for a verification of the attribution of accountability hypothesis, as it was nationally decided and locally implemented, right before a municipal election. The results confirm that local incumbents have taken the blame of the reform, especially in larger cities. In this case, thus, the cost of the reform is borne twice by the lower level of government, financially and politically. So doing, the central government does a dirty deed to the local ones, for a very cheap cost. That mayors who have announced a boycott of the reform have received electoral gains confirms that some local politicians expected to be the fall guys, bearing the brunt of the costs of the reform.     

Steepest ascent tariff reform

The policy reform literature is primarily concerned with the construction of reforms that yield welfare gains. By contrast, this paper’s contribution is to develop a theoretical concept for which the focus is upon the sizes of welfare gains accruing from policy reforms rather than upon their signs. In undertaking this task, and by focusing on tariff reforms, we introduce the concept of a steepest ascent policy reform, which is a locally optimal reform in the sense that it achieves the highest marginal gain in utility of any feasible local reform. We argue that this reform presents itself as a natural benchmark for the evaluation of the welfare effectiveness of other popular tariff reforms such as the proportional tariff reduction and the concertina rules, since it provides the maximal welfare gain of all possible local reforms. We derive properties of the steepest ascent tariff reform, construct an index to measure the relative welfare effectiveness of any given tariff reform, determine conditions under which proportional and concertina reforms are locally optimal and provide illustrative examples.     

On the Dynamic Consistency of Reform and Compensation Schemes

To make reform possible, politically strong losers have to be bought out. Whether the losers are fully compensated upfront or given running compensation depends on their political influence after reform. We build a simple but general model to study dynamic consistency of compensation and political support for reform. We find that positive but decreasing compensation is required in every period up to the last period the losers have political influence. In that period it increases dramatically. If there are limited resources available to compensate the losers upfront, increasing the cost of reversing the reform may reduce the political feasibility of reform.     

对财税体制改革在全面深化改革中发挥支撑作用的思考

公共财政是推动变革的核心力量,随着国家职能的转变,公共财政也必须转变.如果财税体制改革滞后,则会影响其他改革进程;如果财税改革能适应时代的要求,则会在全面深化改革中起支撑性作用.本文认为,在全面深化改革中财税体制改革发挥支撑作用所应遵循的三个原则是处理好政府与市场的关系、集权与分权的关系以及整体规划与稳步推进的关系;而财税体制改革发挥支撑性作用的三项主要工作是调整政府间收入分配,强化预算管理和加强相关领域的改革研究,重视监督机制建设.     

Education reform and education gaps

We estimate the causal effect of the Italian 2009 “Gelmini” education reform on four academic performance gaps relating to immigration status, gender, parental social status, and parental education. The reform led to a reduction in the number of teachers and an increase in class size. Lags in implementing the reform for different grades is used to specify a difference-in-difference identification strategy. We find that the reform had a statistically and economically significant effect on the immigrant-native gap and on the gender gap, but not on the gap between students with more and less favourable family background. Particularly, our findings show that students with an immigration background were the main losers from the Gelmini reform.