Mutual fund managers: Does longevity imply expertise?

We analyze the performance of 1,042 mutual funds from 1986 to 1995 to measure the relationship between manager tenure and performance. Funds whose managers' have at least ten years tenure do not generate significantly higher excess returns than funds with less experienced managers. The excess returns of the best managers are not greater than those of their less experienced colleagues. Regardless of tenure, managers producing positive risk adjusted returns for three years are not likely to repeat their performance in subsequent periods. Our results provide further evidence that tenure should not be a factor in selecting mutual funds.     

Nonlinear effects of monetary policy on stock returns in a smooth transition autoregressive model

This paper employs smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) models to investigate the nonlinear effect of monetary policy on stock returns. The change in the Federal funds rate is used as an endogenous measure of monetary policy, and the growth rate of industrial production is also considered in the model. Our results show that the relationship between the monetary policy and excess returns on stock prices is positive and nonlinear. A decrease in the Federal funds rate causes a larger increase in excess returns if excess stock returns are located in the extreme low excess returns regime.     

Load and no-load mutual fund dynamics during the 1987 market crash: A stochastic dominance analysis

Using a large sample of equity mutual fund returns, we compare performance of load and no-load funds during the 1987 crash. Differences in return distributions, particularly in the higher moments when the market was under stress, suggest a greater use of portfolio insurance by no-load fund managers. Using stochastic dominance, we find that load and no-load funds performed equally well before the crash. No-load returns dominated load fund returns during the crash. Load fund returns dominate after the crash. Over the entire month, no-load funds dominate. We attribute this to investor behavior motivated by the lack of a front-end load.     

Jump risk and cross section of stock returns: evidence from China’s stock market

Various studies have confirmed the existence of jumps in different financial markets. However, there is sparse theoretical or empirical effort to examine the dynamic relation between jump risk and cross-sectional expected stock returns. We follow a stylized SDF-based diffusion-jump model to examine its testable implications about the relation between cross-section expected excess returns and variations in jump intensities across stocks. The zero-cost portfolio, exploiting the return spreads between the top and bottom decile portfolios formed on jump intensity, could earn an annualized return as high as 24% with an annualized Sharpe ratio of 1.67. A Fama-MacBeth test shows that stock excess returns monotonically decrease in jump intensity even after controlling for other common risk factors.     

我国投资基金业绩的持续性分析

基金业绩的持续性是指业绩优秀的基金以后一段时间继续保持优秀的业绩,而业绩差的基金继续表现出差的业绩。如果基金具有持续性,对于投资者来讲,他们可以买进前期业绩优秀的基金,而卖出前期业绩差的基金,来获取超额收益,投资者不必耗费大量的资金和时间去评价和选择基金经理。本文就基金业绩持续性的研究理论方法进行阐述,并对我国投资基金作实证分析。     

Forecasting the direction of the US stock market with dynamic binary probit models

Several empirical studies have documented that the signs of excess stock returns are, to some extent, predictable. In this paper, we consider the predictive ability of the binary dependent dynamic probit model in predicting the direction of monthly excess stock returns. The recession forecast obtained from the model for a binary recession indicator appears to be the most useful predictive variable, and once it is employed, the sign of the excess return is predictable in-sample. The new dynamic “error correction” probit model proposed in the paper yields better out-of-sample sign forecasts, with the resulting average trading returns being higher than those of either the buy-and-hold strategy or trading rules based on ARMAX models.     

A comparison of the performance of open-and closed-end investment companies

This paper investigates the impact of corporate structure on the return performance and related operational characteristics of open- and closed-end investment companies. A statistical model is used to test for differences in several characteristics of these two different types of funds. The results show that there are differences in the returns of open-and closed-end funds, as well as differences in turnover and expenses of funds with different corporate structures. Moreover, the results are surprising in that they are significantly affected by the type of security held in the funds.     

A new approach to risk-return trade-off dynamics via decomposition

This paper revisits the puzzling time series relation between risk premium and conditional volatility by proposing a flexible risk-return trade-off that allows for a variety of possible shapes and incorporates potential nonlinearities inherent in excess return dynamics. We derive this flexible risk-return relation using the decomposition approach of Anatolyev and Gospodinov (2010), which splits excess returns into the product of absolute returns and signs. Using this decomposition strategy, we study four major international financial markets. The empirical results support a significant and positive risk-return trade-off that is driven by conditional volatility, market timing and the interdependence between the two components, which is generically related to return skewness.     

Investigating Excess Returns from Nominal Bonds*

Estimated real returns on nominal bonds show excess returns of some 200 bp over their index‐linked equivalent. This paper considers two possible explanations for this large difference. First, we assess the likely inflation risk premium by calibrating a model of optimal bond prices under uncertainty. Employing either of CRRA or Abel (1990) relative consumption utility function to derive the stochastic discount factor and covariation risk, we suggest that the inflation risk component of this excess return is unlikely to be much above 50 bp. Secondly, we find little evidence that these excess returns can be ascribed to consistent expectational errors in predicting inflation.     

Time varying risk premia for real estate investment trusts: A GARCH-M model

This study employs the generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic in the mean (GARCH-M) methodology to investigate the return generating process of real estate investment trusts (REIT). The trade-off between excess returns and the conditional variance was positive for both equity and mortgage REITs but it was significant only for the latter. Changes in interest rates and their conditional variance were found to be inversely related to REIT excess returns. The 1986 tax law had a negative impact on the excess returns to both REIT sectors but the coefficient was significant only for mortgage REITs. The GARCH-M specification was determined to be more appropriate for the mortgage REIT portfolio than for the portfolio of equity REITs.     

Recent evidence on the short-term and long-term performance persistence of emerging-market mutual fund returns

This paper analyzes the performance persistence of US-based emerging-market mutual funds. We use a sample of 275 actively managed funds between July 1989 and December 2020 and regress their returns on emerging-market benchmark portfolios. On average, the funds had a significant negative alpha. Contrary to some earlier evidence, we document that the short-term consistency is entirely driven by losses of underperforming funds. The return spread between the short-term winners and losers generates a significant positive alpha that can be fully explained by the momentum in emerging-market stocks. We find no evidence of any long-term regularities. Our findings show that the observed funds exhibit very similar behavior to their developed-market counterparts and may contribute to resolving some inconsistencies in the earlier results.     

The role of the seller’s stock performance in the market reaction to divestiture announcements

Divestitures have the potential to create shareholder value. However, the extent of the market reaction should depend on the likelihood of finding more valuable uses for the divested assets or the ability on the part of the seller to eliminate negative synergies. We hypothesize that strong performers have less scope to achieve substantial improvements compared to poorly performing firms. Using the seller’s stock return in excess of the market return in the 1-year and 2-year periods preceding the divestiture announcement to expose the divesting firm’s inefficient use of its assets, we show that the market reaction to divestiture announcements is significantly higher for underperforming firms. The difference in abnormal returns can be as high as 4 %. In contrast, none of the accounting-based variables that have been used in previous studies are found to be significantly related to the announcement returns. These results suggest that the firm’s stock performance is a more useful indicator of the wealth effect associated with divestitures.     

International Portfolio Diversification and the Magnitude of the Market Timer's Penalty

Market timers without timing skill suffer a penalty relative to buy-and-hold investors in the form of higher portfolio risk. With transactions costs, timers suffer lower expected returns as well. We derive the magnitude of this penalty for a timer randomly switching funds between two or more risky assets. Assuming costless trades, a U.S.-based timer randomly switching between U.S. and Japanese national stock funds can expect to face a 26.2% higher standard deviation than a comparable buy-and-hold investor at the same level of expected return. A timer randomly switching between a globally diversified equity portfolio and U.S. T-bills faces a 50.3% higher standard deviation of return than a comparable buy-and-hold investor.     

熊市下我国开放式证券投资基金业绩持续性研究

采用基于回归分析的多期基金业绩持续性评价模型,对56只中国的各类开放式证券投资基金在熊市下的业绩持续性进行了实证研究。结果表明:在短期内,各类基金的业绩不存在持续性,基金业绩往往具有反转性。不同的基金超额业绩的计算方法有时会对评价结果影响很大。     

Bond risk, bond return volatility, and the term structure of interest rates

This paper explores the time variation in the bond risk, as measured by the covariation of bond returns with stock returns and consumption growth, and in the volatility of bond returns. A robust stylized fact in empirical finance is that the spread between the yields on long- and short-term bonds forecasts future excess returns on bonds at varying horizons positively; in addition, the short-term nominal interest rate forecasts both the stock return volatility and the exchange rate volatility positively. This paper presents evidence that movements in both the short-term nominal interest rate and the yield spread are positively related to changes in the subsequent realized bond risk and bond return volatility. The yield spread appears to proxy for business conditions, while the short rate appears to proxy for inflation and economic uncertainty. A decomposition of bond betas into a real cash flow risk component and a discount rate risk component shows that yield spreads have offsetting effects in each component. A widening yield spread is correlated with a reduced cash-flow (or inflationary) risk for bonds, but it is also correlated with a larger discount rate risk for bonds. The short rate only forecasts the discount rate component of the bond beta.     

Robust performance measures for high yield bond funds

We examine performance measures for high yield bond mutual funds, which are a considerable percentage of taxable bond investments, but have not been widely studied. High yield funds exhibit persistence in their monthly returns, so we calculate Sharpe ratios using methods that incorporate the serial correlation of returns. We find that high yield fund rankings using raw returns and conventionally calculated Sharpe ratios are different from those using trailing standard deviations and robust standard errors. High yield fund rankings based on robust Sharpe ratios also differ from those computed using multi-index Jensen's alphas and information ratios. When measured by risk-adjusted returns, high yield bond fund managers do not add much value.     

Returns-to-scale and the equity premium puzzle

A model of heterogenous firms facing idiosyncratic risk is proposed which generates an equity premium of 6 per cent and a risk-free rate of 1.5 per cent even if aggregate returns are risk-free. The premium in this model reflects diminishing returns-to-scale and the fact that equity shares are equal claims to firm output. In the bond market, the risk-free rate reflects trade in assets at marginal rates of return with a linear technology and thus the equity premium in excess returns reflects a comparison of average returns with marginal returns. In the model, credit constraints lower the equity premium and, absent such constraints, the equity premium would roughly double. Since the model may be interpreted as a model of entrepreneurship, this paper also presents estimates from a structural model of entrepreneurship using data from the Survey of Consumer Finances and also finds only a modest level of risk aversion is sufficient to replicate entrepreneurial returns.     

Hedge funds,fund attributes and risk adjusted returns

We use proprietary data to examine factors that lead hedge fund managers to offer hurdle rates and investigate relative hedge fund performance based on risk-adjusted returns. Using data from 3,571 hedge funds over a 15 year period, we find that funds that do not offer a hurdle rate outperform those that do. Funds offering a high watermark charge substantially higher performance fees. Further, emerging market, fixed income, and funds of funds are significantly more likely to offer a hurdle rate than other types of funds. Performance fees have a positive impact on the likelihood of offering a hurdle rate. Fund leverage and management fees are negatively associated with hurdle rates. The cross-sectional regressions show that funds, which offer a hurdle rate, underperform those that do not. Funds that charge a high performance fee appear to outperform those that charge a relatively low fee. The results are consistent with the view that those managers who wish to improve risk-adjusted returns should not focus on hurdle rates.     

Does Mad Money make the market go mad?

Empirical studies of numerous popular investment advisory services find statistically significant abnormal returns at the time of their broadcast or published investment recommendations. Our analysis of returns and trading volume around stock recommendations aired on charismatic host Jim Cramer's Mad Money program reveals statistical evidence of response to both his buy and sell opinions, with most of the full-day return following an on-air buy recommendation captured by that day's opening price. Trading strategy analysis suggests that individuals with limited funds should be wary of short-term trading to exploit the show's suggestions, while professional investors may be able to exploit buy picks with a contra strategy.     

Day-of-the-week effects in commercial paper yield rates

In order to minimize short-term financing costs, corporations issue commercial paper instead of seeking bank loans. We examine the changes in the daily rates of commercial paper over the last two decades. Our most interesting finding is based on a consistent and significant negative return on Wednesdays as compared to other weekdays over the sample period. We use t-tests, non-parametric tests and the binary regression developed by French [J. Finan. Econ. 8 (1) (1980) 55] to confirm our results. Finally, we deduct the return for each Wednesday from the average return for that week and find that Wednesday returns are significantly lower. Consistent with other money market instruments like T-bills and federal funds, we show that a day-of-the-week effect exists in the commercial paper rates.