人民币汇率波动与中国股票价格报酬之间的相关性——基于2005年至2007年的实证分析

本文以2005年7月21日至2007年9月18日的中国股价与人民币兑美元的名义汇率数据,利用GARCH模型来探讨在这段时间内人民币汇率波动对中国股票价格报酬的影响。实证结果得知,在这段时间内人民币兑美元名义汇率波动是负向影响中国股票价格报酬的,也符合有价证券余额理论的主张;汇率市场对股票市场的影响在宏观决策中应予以高度重视。     

中国股票市场股利政策(英文)

本文解释了鼓励政策的定义和现今中国企业通常使用的股利政策方法。文中将对中国与西方的股利政策的异同进行对比,同时分析了具有中国特色股利政策形成的原因,并且提出了一些改善现状的意见和建议。     

保险机构持股行为对上市公司股价波动的影响

本文对保险机构持股的行为特征和偏好进行了分析,采用面板数据估计了保险机构持股行为对被持股公司股价波动的影响。研究结果表明:第一,保险公司的股票投资注重安全性和收益性,主要遵循长期价值投资的原则,没有追涨杀跌,在股市低迷的时期,起到了稳定市场的作用;第二,保险机构短期买卖股票的投资行为没有对被持股公司股价波动产生显著冲击,而长期持股的股票价格有上涨趋势,与其遵循价值投资的理念相符,体现了保险机构投资的价值发现功能。     

基于分组固定效应模型的中国上市公司股利政策研究

基于1257家主板上市公司2004—2014年的数据,运用分组固定效应模型,考量中国上市公司的股利政策。结果表明：相比其他估计技术,分组固定效应模型的研究结果更为准确。中国上市公司在股利分配政策上具有长远规划,股利政策存在异质性且缺乏稳定性,股利平均支付比率处于较低水平。     

中国股票市场股利政策

本文解释了鼓励政策的定义和现今中国企业通常使用的股利政策方法.文中将对中国与西方的股利政策的异同进行对比,同时分析了具有中国特色股利政策形成的原因,并且提出了一些改善现状的意见和建议.     

基本养老保险基金投资、股票收益率与股价波动性

以2017-2022年各季度基本养老保险基金投资数据为样本,考察基本养老保险基金投资对股票收益率与股价波动性的影响.结果显示:基本养老保险基金持股比例变化对股票未来收益率有一定预测效应,持股比例增加会加剧股价波动.异质性检验表明,被持股公司规模越大,持股比例变化对股票收益率的影响越不明显,对股价波动性影响的时滞性越强.对于短期持股而言,持股比例增加会加剧股价波动,而对于长期持股而言,持股比例增加有利于稳定股价.鉴于此,应继续推动基本养老保险基金全国统筹,进一步扩大其市场化投资规模、延长投资考核期限,提升基金可持续发展能力.     

The Impact of Information Release on Stock Price Volatility and Trading Volume: The Rights Offering Case

This paper examines whether information released via rights offering announcements induces changes in price volatility and trading volume of underlying stock. The results of this paper provide support for the release of new information via offering announcements and evidence of its effects on price volatility and volume of underlying stock. Specifically, utilization of the announced information by investors is evidenced by greater trading volume following the announcement date than during the pre-announcement period. We interpret this result to mean that informedness dominates consensus. However, stock price volatility decreased from the pre-announcement period to the post-expiration period of rights offerings.     

险资持股对上市公司股价波动的影响研究——基于机构投资者异质性视角

保险机构已经成为资本市场重要的机构投资者,其在整个资本市场中的作用日益受到关注.基于机构投资者异质性的视角,对保险机构和证券投资基金、社保基金以及Q FII等其他机构投资者的持股特征进行对比分析,总结梳理保险机构投资者持股的特征.并运用面板数据模型,从长期持股和持股比例变动两个方面对比分析保险机构持股与证券投资基金持股对股价波动的影响.结果表明:在样本期间内,相对于证券投资基金,保险机构长期持股起到了稳定股市的作用,但保险机构持股比例变动会加剧股市的波动.     

股价波动、通货膨胀与固定资产投资——基于协整和VEC模型的经验证据

经验证据表明,我国股票市场时全社会固定资产投资的影响作用还比较小,股票市场对固定资产投资的冲击在部分时段是负效应,可能存在部分"挤出效应".而影响固定资产投资的主要因素是GDP的变动.另外在我国,通货膨胀率对固定资产投资的影响比较明显.从短期来看,固定资产投资也带动了通货膨胀.国内固定资产投资的波动不仅受偏离均衡的影响,还受到GDP、Cpi、上证综合指数与存款利率水平自身变动的影响.央行应加强审慎的宏观调控,优化信贷结构,加强农村水利建设的长期投资,为经济结构调整和经济增长方式的转变提供稳定的货币金融环境.     

Dividend Stability, Dividend Yield and Stock Returns: UK Evidence

This paper establishes an empirical role for two measures of dividend stability (as a proxy for dividend policy) in explaining UK stock returns. There is little systematic empirical evidence concerning the relation between dividend stability, dividend yield and stock returns despite the fact that a variety of theoretical models point to dividend policy as an important stock attribute. Here we construct two definitions of dividend stability, one of which involves dividend cuts, and use a sample of all listed UK firms from 1975 to 1997 to explore the relationship between stock returns and a variety of characteristics, including dividend stability. We find an inverse correlation between the stability of past dividend policy and systematic risk. Both stability measures have explanatory power over returns, but this is concentrated in January.     

Dividend Stability, Dividend Yield and Stock Returns: UK Evidence

This paper establishes an empirical role for two measures of dividend stability (as a proxy for dividend policy) in explaining UK stock returns. There is little systematic empirical evidence concerning the relation between dividend stability, dividend yield and stock returns despite the fact that a variety of theoretical models point to dividend policy as an important stock attribute. Here we construct two definitions of dividend stability, one of which involves dividend cuts, and use a sample of all listed UK firms from 1975 to 1997 to explore the relationship between stock returns and a variety of characteristics, including dividend stability. We find an inverse correlation between the stability of past dividend policy and systematic risk. Both stability measures have explanatory power over returns, but this is concentrated in January.     

市场行情影响投资者的股利偏好吗?

基于2005-2017年A股上市公司的数据,研究了在不同的市场行情中,投资者对于股利政策的偏好差别。研究发现：对于现金股利而言,在上涨和下跌的市场行情中,投资者更偏好不发放现金股利的上市公司;在平稳行情中,投资者更偏好发放现金股利的上市公司。对于股票股利而言,在上涨行情中,投资者更偏好发放股票股利的上市公司;在下跌行情中,投资者更偏好不发放股票股利的上市公司;在平稳行情中,投资者对于是否发放股票股利没有显著的偏好差异。在上涨和下跌的市场行情中,超能力派现和高送转不会改变投资者的偏好;在平稳行情中,只有正常派现和正常送转才能赢得投资者的青睐,超能力派现行为无益于上市公司,高送转还会损害公司价值。     

The Role of Payout Ratio in the Relationship Between Stock Returns and Dividend Yield

Abstract:   This paper examines the relationship between returns and dividend yield in the UK stock market, and introduces earnings‐related data to the asset pricing model in the form of payout ratio. The latter has a considerable effect upon the inferences which would otherwise be drawn from a study of the dividend yield‐returns relationship in the absence of such earnings information. Payout ratio conveys additional signalling information and is an important adjunct to dividend yield in explaining returns.     

送转股对股东财富的影响——基于中国上市公司的证据

以2008、2009年的送转股除权日进行事件研究,通过均值比较与检验方法,首次实证研究我国上市公司送转股后股价变化对股东财富的影响,结果发现:相对于经过调整的除权前一日的股价,2008年股票除权后,股价以高于送转股的比例单调下降;而2009年股票除权后,股价呈上升趋势,并于第14日显著高于经过调整的除权前一日的股价。除权后20天内的股价整体上高于年末股价,说明相对基于年末股价的股利决策,送转股没有降低股价。企业发放股票股利,导致股票总市值上升,增加了股东财富。     

The Chinese Stock Dividend Puzzle

In this paper, we examine the announcement effects of dividends with an emphasis on stock dividends in China's capital market. We find that dividend-paying stocks exhibit significantly positive abnormal returns while non-dividend-paying stocks show a negative announcement effect. Further, we document that the cumulative abnormal returns for pure stock dividends and combined dividends are the main drivers of this announcement effect. In contrast, pure cash dividend stocks experience no significant price run-up before announcement. The significant announcement effect of stock dividends is robust to controlling the earnings surprise effect. We offer some discussion of the possible explanations.     

Does fair value accounting contribute to market price volatility? An experimental approach

This paper contributes to the debate on the impact of accounting measurement rules for financial assets. We examine the association between fair value accounting for financial assets and market price volatility for nonfinancial firms in an experimental setting. One group of participants was provided with financial statements where held‐for‐trading securities were reported at fair market value (FVA). Another group received financial statements with investments reported at historical cost (HCA). Controlling for accounting data, we find no systematic difference between FVA and HCA for three different measures of market price volatility, despite higher earnings volatility and marginally heavier trading under FVA.     

基于B-S期权定价模型的可转换债券定价实证分析

可转换债券是一种混合金融衍生工具,它把相应的股票看涨期权内嵌在传统的公司债券之中,具有债券和股票的双重性质,因而可转债的定价问题逐渐为企业和投资者所关注。本文借助Black-Scholes定价模型研究定价理论,对Black-Scholes定价模型进行修正,体现了红利发放对可转换债券定价的影响。     

Why Do Price Limits Exist in Stock Markets? A Manipulation‐Based Explanation

Numerous stock market regulators around the world impose daily price limits on individual stock price movements. We derive a simple model that shows that price limits may deter stock market manipulators. Based on our model's implications, we predict that regulators impose price limit rules for markets where the likelihood of manipulation is high. We present empirical evidence consistent with this hypothesis. Our study is the first to formally propose a manipulation‐based rationale for the existence of price limits in stock markets.