Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Trade Flows: Evidence from Commodity Trade between the United States and the United Kingdom

Previous studies that investigated the impact of exchange rate volatility on the trade flows employed aggregate trade data and standard estimation techniques. They provided mixed results. In this paper we use disaggregated import and export data for 177 commodities traded between the United States and the United Kingdom to investigate whether volatility of the real bilateral dollar–pound exchange rate has any detrimental effect on trade flows at the commodity level. Additionally, we employ the bounds testing approach to cointegration and error‐correction modelling that is suitable for the models used mostly because it does not require pre‐unit‐root testing and variables in the model could be stationary, non‐stationary or a combination of the two. In most trade flow models estimated, we found a negative effect of exchange rate volatility on commodity trade.     

初级产品出口关税的作用探析

长期以来,相对于其他商品而言,初级产品出口价格的不断下降给许多仍靠少数出口产品获取外贸收入的发展中国家带来了一系列的挑战,使其成为国际贸易中长期存在且备受关注的焦点之一。因此,许多发展中国家便采取课征初级产品出口税的政策以图解决其所面临的问题。本文在分析初级产品出口关税对出口国及其贸易伙伴的影响基础上,着重论述了采取出口税政策解决出口价格波动带来挑战的利弊,并在最后以一些实证研究的实例说明了这一政策实施效果的不确定性。     

石油净进口大国利率与油价对净出口的影响

传统贸易理论在研究影响一国净出口因素时只考虑了汇率和收入水平,本文在此基础上加入了利率和油价因素,并以美、中、日三个石油净进口大国为例进行了实证分析,结果表明利率上升减少投资需求,降低国内物价水平,增强出口商品价格竞争力,使出口增加,进口减少;油价上涨,石油进口支出增加,一国进口总额增加。实证和理论分析结果基本相符,即净出口与利率呈正向关系,与油价呈负向关系。     

低碳经济背景下优化浙江省出口商品结构及对策

由于外部世界低碳经济的发展背景和内部由生产力发展水平决定的产业结构转型升级的现时状况,决定了浙江省在外部和内部合力的作用下势必需要走一条出口产业、出口商品低碳发展的道路,这是一条对传统出口商品结构进行调整、升级、优化的道路,即力求出口商品低碳、高技术、高附加值、提高第三产业产品出口比重的道路。为应对和预防进口贸易国对外国出口商品可实施碳足迹、碳标签、碳关税等新型贸易壁垒措施,浙江省应该借助省内产业结构转型升级的契机,在保持传统特色产品出口的基础上,采取积极引进和广泛应用节能、清洁、低碳技术,提高出口商品的技术含量和附加值,增加环保、绿色服务业产品的出口比重,促进出口商品结构不断优化。     

The macroeconomic effects of commodity market disruptions in open economies

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects of two of the principal causes of the commodity price boom in 1973-74: bad harvests and commodity speculation. The analysis uses a dynamic, fixprice-flexprice model in which exchange rates are flexible and commodities serve as both an asset and a consumption good. Commodity market disruptions of the magnitude that occurred in 1973-74 are shown to have significant effects on prices, exchange rates, trade flows, and capital flows — effects that persist long after the initial shock has passed. Asset markets, defined to include commodity markets, play a central role in transmitting these shocks throughout the world economy.     

Global agricultural trade liberalization: Is Sub-Saharan Africa a gainer or loser?

This paper analyzes the potential impact of agricultural trade liberalization on Sub-Saharan Africa. We used the Agricultural Trade and Policy Simulation Model to estimate the potential effects of agricultural trade liberalization, mainly in the US and EU, on the world-market prices of agricultural commodities. We then used the estimated price changes to assess the impact of these reforms on net-food importers as well as other Sub-Saharan African countries that enjoy preferential trade agreements with the EU and US. The results indicate that the world market prices of all commodities imported by Sub-Saharan Africa are expected to rise while the prices of the key export commodities of the region would either decline or remain unchanged. Given that the prices of major food commodities are expected to rise, net-food-importing countries will experience increasing import bill, thus leading to welfare loss. Major Sub-Saharan Africa sugar exporters who are beneficiaries of preferential agreements such as the EU sugar protocol and US AGOA initiative will become losers as preferences erode due to global liberalization. Thus, the region is expected to generally become a net loser from the current WTO reform modalities.     

Factors influencing price developments of commodities

Since developing countries are dependent to a large extent on the export of commodities, changes in commodity prices on world markets can have dramatic effects on living standards and on government budgets. The following paper examines the factors behind such changes and discusses the instruments which could be used to influence them.     

我国输入性通胀影响因素的实证研究——基于2005-2011年月度数据的分析

通过分析在当前经济环境下输入性通胀的传导路径,并建立向量自回归VAR模型,通过实证分析系统考察CPI、FDI、进出口差额、国际原油及粮食价格5个变量,结果表明我国目前存在输入性通货膨胀,FDI对我国通胀影响最大,进出口差额、国际大宗商品价格也存在不可忽视的作用,并根据分析结果提出缓解通货膨胀输入性因素影响的政策建议.     

The Asymmetric Commodity Inventory Effect on the Optimal Hedge Ratio

Hedging strategies for commodity prices largely rely on dynamic models to compute optimal hedge ratios. This study illustrates the importance of considering the commodity inventory effect (effect by which the commodity price volatility increases more after a positive shock than after a negative shock of the same magnitude) in modeling the variance–covariance dynamics. We show by in‐sample and out‐of‐sample forecasts that a commodity price index portfolio optimized by an asymmetric BEKK–GARCH model outperforms the symmetric BEKK, static (OLS), or naïve models. Robustness checks on a set of commodities and by an alternative mean‐variance optimization framework confirm the relevance of taking into account the inventory effect in commodity hedging strategies.     

Impact of commodity prices on exchange rates in commodity-exporting countries

This paper studies the link between real exchange rates and commodity prices, over the period 1993M1–2018M12, for commodity-exporting countries by analysing countries individually and considering the possibility of structural breaks. Our results suggest that: (a) the movements in the price of the main commodity (i.e., the one whose share is at least 20% of total commodity export) affect significantly to the real exchange rate; (b) the sign of the effect of commodity prices on real exchange rate is not clearly positive (as was found by earlier analyses using panel data), but it depends on the country considered; and (c) the negative effects of the possession of natural resources observed in the past decades seem not to be now overwhelming.     

人民币汇率升值的出口价格传递效应

运用协整分析及ARDL分布滞后模型从长期和短期较为准确地估计出口商在人民币汇率升值影响下对国内出口价格的调整程度,进一步分析出口商品的汇率传递弹性,以恰当地评估人民币汇率升值对不同类型出口商品价格的影响差异以及对该出口行业的影响,为我国制定合适的产业政策及贸易政策提供相关建议。     

黑龙江省边境小额贸易发展对策研究

近几年来,国家和黑龙江省政府实施了一系列切合实际的措施,有效地遏制了黑龙江省边境小额贸易额的下滑和大起大落态势,但在边境小额贸易发展中还存在很多不稳定因素,其发展前景仍不容盲目乐观。虽然黑龙江省发展边境小额贸易有独特的地缘和交通优势、历史人文优势、公共关系优势、边境口岸通关优势、经济互补性优势、贸易结算优势,但同时存在着出口商品结构单一、出口商品科技含量低、质量差、＂灰色清关＂影响边境小额贸易长远发展、中俄两国差异影响边境小额贸易的正常发展等问题,黑龙江省应发挥传统商品优势,完善进出口商品结构,边境小额贸易企业应实施名牌战略,提高产品的科技含量,积极应对边境小额贸易中的＂灰色清关＂,建立健全相关机构,保障边境小额贸易有序发展。     

Do inpayments and outpayments respond to exchange rate changes asymmetrically: Evidence from Malaysia

Since the pass-through of exchange rate changes on import and export prices are asymmetric, we expect a country’s inpayments (export earnings) and outpayments (cost of imports) to also react to exchange rate changes asymmetrically. We demonstrate this hypothesis by considering trade between Malaysia and each of her 11 largest trading partners. We find that while the short-run effects of exchange rate changes on Malaysia’s inpayments and outpayments are asymmetric with all partners, the long-run asymmetric effects are present in less than half of the partners. The results are partner specific.     

Interdependencies between agricultural commodity futures prices on the LIFFE

Interdependencies between commodity prices can arise from the impact of changing macroeconomic variables, from complementarities or substitutabilities between commodities, or from common responses by speculators. Malliaris and Urrutia (1996) found significant linkages between rollover prices of six related agricultural commodities on the Chicago Board of Trade. This article examines interdependencies between futures prices for soft commodities traded on the London International Financial Futures Exchange (LIFFE), calculated using Clark indices. Results show that there are no interdependencies between any two prices; price discovery of one contract provides no information about others. © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22: 269–280, 2002     

Arbitrage,cointegration, and the joint dynamics of prices across discrete commodity futures auctions

Underlying the search for arbitrage opportunities across commodity futures markets that differ in market structure is the idea that the futures prices for similar commodities that are traded on different exchanges adjusted for differences in currency, delivery time (if any), location, and market structure are equal. This article examines price linkages in competing discrete commodity futures auction markets. We find no evidence of cointegration of futures prices of similar commodities traded on two contemporaneous discrete auction futures exchanges in Asia. We also find no evidence of arbitrage activities across these two Asian exchanges, though this does not preclude arbitrage activities with North American continuous auction markets. This lack of cointegration may be due to nonstationarities in the trading cost component. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 799–815, 1999     

The effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the prices and volume of international trade

By specifying a model of differential risk-bearing by import demand and export supply sides of the market for traded goods, the theoretical impact of exchange risk on both equilibrium prices and quantities is analyzed. For several empirical cases of 1965–1975 U.S. and German trade it is found that exchange rate uncertainty has had a significant impact on prices but no significant effect on the volume of trade. These price effects support previous survey results on the currency denomination of export contracts, namely that with the exception of some U.S. imports, most trade is largely denominated in the exporter's currency.     

Commodity Markets and Commodity Mutual Funds

Fundamental economic factors—market demand and supply conditions—provide the most consistent explanation for trends in commodity prices from 2004 to 2011. This paper presents empirical evidence that the rise and fall of commodity prices on a monthly basis can be strongly linked to the value of the U.S. dollar and the world business cycle—in particular, to the strength or weakness in emerging market economies such as China, Brazil, India, and Russia. Despite concerns raised by some policymakers that increased commodity index investment (the financialization of commodities) has driven commodity price movements, numerous academic studies have concluded that index-based investing has not moved prices or exacerbated volatility in commodity markets in recent years. An examination of weekly and monthly net flows into commodity mutual funds reveals that these flows have little or no effect on the overall growth rate of commodity prices. In particular, weekly flows into commodity mutual funds do not lead to future commodity price changes. These results are consistent with academic papers that find little or no impact of commodity index investors on commodity prices in individual markets. The paper concludes by briefly discussing three key factors that illustrate why flows into commodity mutual funds cannot explain commodity price movements.     

Can Export Restrictions be Disciplined Through the World Trade Organisation?

A number of major agricultural exporting countries responded to high food prices from 2007 to 2011 by imposing export restrictions on agricultural commodities in efforts to constrain domestic food price inflation. These restrictions reduced the volume of internationally traded food and exacerbated international price spikes. Net food‐importing countries were faced with growing import bills, and non‐governmental organisations that target food security scaled‐back programme commitments and appealed for increased funding. There have subsequently been a chorus of calls for the development of a formal international framework that could discipline the use of agricultural export restrictions; the agreements of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) have been targeted as possible fora for such disciplines. We present a framework in which the efficacy of such disciplines can be analysed and conclude that constraints on agricultural export restrictions are not likely to be effective within the WTO's Dispute Settlement Understanding for two reasons. First, the timelines for dispute settlement in the WTO are too long to be useful in disputes about export restrictions during periods of high food prices. Second, the withdrawal of tariff concessions, or trade retaliation, that could be authorised in such cases would not be a credible response for many complainant countries.     

如何防范敏感性商品在空运方式下的信用证风险

在一般贸易中,受某种特定因素的影响,使得某种普通商品由于供求关系发生变化变成敏感性商品。由于该类商品价格受特定的因素和供求关系变化的影响较大,价格极不稳定,容易给买卖双方带来较大利益和损失。本文正是从该类商品在一般贸易中的空运方式和信用证付款条件下,通过具体案例进行分析有哪些风险及其防范措施。     

Im/Ex in April, 2010： First Monthly Trade Deficit in Six Years

On April 10, 2010, General Administration of Customs of the People＇s Republic of China （GAC） released the profile of China foreign trade import and export in April and the first quarter of this year. China＇s trade balance turned red in March with the country＇s first monthly trade deficit in six years. The GAC attributed the March deficit to shrinking exports of labor-intensive products, surging imports and rising commodity prices.