The macroeconomics outcome of oil shocks in the small Eurozone economies

In this work, we provide an analysis over the period 1999–2015 of the effects of oil shocks on prices and GDP in a group of small Euro-area economies. The group includes Austria, Belgium, Finland, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal and Spain. In order to characterise the macroeconomic outcomes of movements in oil prices, we adopt the structural vector autoregression (VAR) methodology. We find that under the European Monetary Union (EMU), oil price shocks have been important drivers of business cycle fluctuations in almost all these countries. Moreover, an increase in oil prices produces significant recessionary effects in all the countries included in the investigation. Thus, although there are different sizes in the responses of output in the investigated countries, our main conclusion is that despite the structural changes experienced by the European economies in the last decades, oil prices still matter for these countries. In the light of these results, we also stress some important challenges for the conduct of monetary policy in the Euro area.     

试论海外华商经济发展的成就、经验与启示

海外华商经济已经成为当地经济的一股重要力量,也对中国的经济发展作出了杰出的贡献。这些成就的取得一方面得益于成熟的华商网络,另一方面受益于华商的多元化文化,特别是“儒商”文化。我国的经济建设应充分利用海外华商网络,吸收其合理经济文化思想,进行互补性合作,共同谋取更好的发展。     

Effects of transitory shocks to aggregate output on consumption in poor countries

This paper provides instrumental variables estimates of the response of aggregate private consumption to transitory output shocks in poor countries. To identify exogenous, unanticipated, idiosyncratic and transitory variations in national output we use year-to-year variations in rainfall as an instrumental variable in a panel of 39 sub-Saharan African countries during the period 1980–2009. Our estimates yield a marginal propensity to consume out of transitory output of around 0.2. To explain this result we show, using instrumental variables techniques, that there is a significant negative effect of transitory output shocks on net current transfers and a significant positive and quantitatively large effect on the trade balance. An important implication is that frictions to private financial flows do not necessarily imply large effects of transitory shocks to aggregate output on private consumption in poor countries.     

The feasibility of currency union in Gulf Cooperation Council countries: A business cycle synchronisation view

This paper study the feasibility of a monetary union among Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, by measuring the evolution of economic integration among them. Considering the critical role of crisis and shocks in the integration process within the region, we determine whether GCC countries are characterised by a common business cycle. We suggest a different empirical approach that, unlike previous studies, allows one to endogenously detect structural changes in the comovement process between outputs. We apply a new measure for this region that is based on the time‐varying coherence function. Such a measure not only detects comovement dynamics but also distinguishes these dynamics in terms of short‐ and long‐term cycles. Additionally, we can test whether certain countries tend to be more synchronised. The main finding of this study is that not all GCC countries share a common short‐term business cycle. However, in the long term, all country‐pairs indicate a medium‐level synchronisation in the most recent subperiods. The new role of the United Arab Emirates’ regional trade platform allows it to strengthen long‐term business cycle comovement, thus differentiating it from other GCC country‐pairs that have shown a decline in the last two subperiods.     

The United Kingdom and the stability of the Euro area: From Maastricht to Brexit

The two key events expected to mark the year 2019 were the 20th anniversary of the euro and Brexit. This paper examines the role of the United Kingdom on the stability of the euro area. We study stability from the perspective of synchronisation of economic activity in a core and periphery framework. We show the UK, since 1990, has become significantly more integrated with the EU economy. The UK moved from the periphery before 1990 to the core afterwards. We also find that the level of synchronisation of the UK economy has had the highest variability over time among all countries.     

零售业数字化转型机理研究

在数字经济时代,数字化转型已成为零售业高质量发展的必然趋势。近年来,我国零售企业纷纷进行数字化转型,呈现出从技术应用向数字赋能转变、从渠道线上化向线上线下一体化转变、从业务数据化向数据业务化转变、从营销数字化向全面数字化转变以及从大企业主导向大中小企业协同转变的特征,整体上处于探索阶段,存在着全面数字化战略规划缺失、数字化基础和能力较弱、需求驱动型供应链支撑不足和企业组织架构改革相对滞后等问题。零售业数字化转型的内在机理是数字化技术驱动的以消费需求为核心的生产供给体系和流通供给体系的变革,即以消费者需求为出发点,通过线上线下多维立体场景打造、供应链逆向整合、数据资源积累和数据分析能力构建、业务流程再造与组织架构变革构建数字化商业生态系统,打破商品生产与消费之间的时间与空间限制,重构人货场的关系,提升生产与流通体系供给质量和供给效率。     

中资银行商业方法专利战略现状及分析

商业方法专利是国际立法发展的一个新趋势。我国应积极与国际立法接轨。在立法上肯定商业方法的可专利性,并尽快制定适合我国国情的商业方法专利标准及程序。同时中资银行还应当构建与外资银行相抗衡的商业方法专利战略,变被动为主动,增强企业国际竞争力。     

On the international transmission of technology shocks

Using vector autoregressions on U.S. time series and an aggregate of industrialized countries, we find that technology shocks appreciate the terms of trade and lower the trade balance; they induce an ‘S’-shaped cross-correlation function for both variables (the S-curve). In calibrating a prototypical international business cycle model under complete and incomplete financial markets, we find two distinct sets of parameter values. While both model specifications deliver the S-curve, the underlying transmission mechanism of technology shocks is fundamentally different. Most importantly, only in the incomplete markets economy the terms of trade appreciate and thus amplify the relative wealth effects of technology shocks—as suggested by the evidence.     

关于旅行社面向商务旅游转型的思考

旅游旅行社面向商务旅游的转型已经成为一个现实问题:一方面,商务旅游的迅速发展对旅行服务提出了新的要求;另一方面,传统产品市场的竞争迫使旅行社寻找新的市场空间;而旅行社的企业资源则为其转型提供了基础.为了成功地实现面向商务旅游的转型,旅行社必须和目标客户建立起长期的、稳定的合作关系,必须将为客户的事务性活动提供服务作为产品核心,必须深入企业内部,了解企业管理中存在的关键问题,并对组织结构进行相应的调整.     

电子商务发展路径与环境问题研究

本文认为,电子商务是一个既求同又存异由低级到高级不断演化的过程;电子商务企业提升竞争力的关键在于增强获得信息熵的能力,在于求同存异的创新;我国在解决电子商务发展中的环境问题时,既要从国情出发又要对接世界先进水平;既要以市场导向为主,又要加强宏观调控;既要抓住电子商务带来的发展机遇,又要避免电子商务泡沫,重视培育电子商务市场,加强与国际电子商务标准的对接,建立信息化连锁物流企业,制定并完善电子商务法律法规。     

入世后中国市场规则的完善--以朗讯(中国)"贿赂事件"为例

文章以朗讯(中国)"贿赂事件"作为切入点,分析了跨国公司在华进行商业贿赂的原因及危害,指出抑制商业贿赂、保障公平竞争的重要性,并提出完善中国市场规则的具体建议.     

基于经济周期理论的我国出口贸易波动特征分析

近几年来,我国出口贸易持续增长,出口贸易波动也在增强.为此,采用增长率直接法、增长率趋势法分析我国出口贸易的短周期、中周期和中长周期波动,并采用协整理论分析我国出口贸易长周期的特征.研究结果表明.自1978年以来,我国出口贸易经历了八次短周期波动、三次中周期波动(其中第三次中周期波动具有在适度高位的平滑化的特征)和两次中长周期波动,目前正处在第二个中长周期波动的扩张期;我国出口贸易的长周期与GDP的长周期具有相似的特征.     

浅议《物权法》对商业银行信贷业务的影响

《物权法》的实施对于商业银行开展信贷业务既具有有利的一面,又存在不利的影响。商业银行应高度重视研究《物权法》出台带来的各种影响,要广泛开展《物权法》的宣传教育,以《物权法》为依据,有针对性地完善风险防控措施,加强相关业务的创新,及时出台并修订业务操作规章制度,防范和规避相关法律风险。     

浅议《物权法》对商业银行信贷业务的影响

《物权法》的实施对于商业银行开展信贷业务既具有有利的一面,又存在不利的影响。商业银行应高度重视研究《物权法》出台带来的各种影响,要广泛开展《物权法》的宣传教育,以《物权法》为依据,有针对性地完善风险防控措施,加强相关业务的创新,及时出台并修订业务操作规章制度,防范和规避相关法律风险。     

资源型企业与知识型企业的比较与管理

在归纳概括资源型企业与知识型企业基本含义与根本特征的基础上,从企业生产要素与人员构成、企业的生产与产出、企业的组织、管理与文化等方面对两类企业的主要差异进行了系统分析与比较。结果表明,企业应针对两者的不同特点采用不同的管理方式,以提高管理工作的成效。     

论商业信用权的法律保护

商业信用是商主体在市场经济中不可避免的经济行为。商业信用权的保护因而也应当纳入法律规制的视野。商业信用权是一种混合型的权利,保护商业信用权有相应的法理基础。应当依照一般侵权行为,对权利人的受侵害事实进行救济。     

A global compass for the great divergence: Emissions versus production centres of gravity 1820–2008

We construct the world's centres of gravity for human population, GDP and CO₂ emissions by taking the best out of five recognised data sources covering the last two centuries. On the basis of a novel distortion‐free representation of these centres of gravity, we find a radical Western shift of GDP and CO₂ emission centres in the nineteenth century, in sharp contrast with the stability of the demographic centre of gravity. Both GDP and emissions trends are reversed in the first half of the twentieth century, after World War I for CO₂ emissions, after World War II for GDP. Since then, both centres are moving eastward at an accelerating speed. These patterns are perfectly consistent with the lead of Western countries starting the industrial revolution, the gradual replacement of coal by oil and gas as alternative sources of energy and the progressive catch‐up of Asian countries in the recent past.     

The impact of family involvement on the investments of Italian small-medium enterprises in psychically distant countries

In this paper we investigate a sample of 122 Italian manufacturing small to medium-sized family firms, and analyse the effects of the degree of family involvement on their decisions to invest in psychically distant countries. Our findings indicate that higher family involvement tends to correspond to a lower number of foreign direct investments in psychically distant countries. Additionally, the firm’s age has a moderating effect on the relationship between family involvement and investments in psychically distant countries. When we analyse younger firms, family involvement turns out to be negatively associated with these investments, while this relationship is slightly positive when we consider older firms. These results allow us to move beyond family/non family owned comparative studies and provide a more nuanced view of family firm internationalization.     

基于转变经济发展方式视域的中国贸易转型升级路径研究

进入21世纪,随着世界经济的快速发展,加工贸易也积极进行转型升级。加工贸易的转型以及现代化能够显著促进经济发展,实现加快转变经济发展方式的目标。在此背景下,从转变经济发展方式的视角提出了科学的发展模式,指出了当前贸易存在的问题,探讨经济发展方式的转变以及业务流程的科学发展。在定量分析领域,根据凯恩斯主义的分析,探讨了中国加工贸易的发展困境及其对转变经济发展方式的影响,并提出了相关对策建议。