“Going global” and FDI inflows in China: “One Belt & One Road” initiative as a quasi‐natural experiment

This paper investigates the impact of “One Belt & One Road” as an exogenous policy shock on the utilisation of foreign capital in China in the short term. Based on provincial panel data for the years 2003–15, the empirical study is conducted with difference‐in‐differences design. The first difference is whether a province is an OBOR province, and the second is whether “One Belt & One Road” initiative has been proposed. The empirical results suggest the utilisation of foreign capital in OBOR provinces has decreased significantly compared to non‐OBOR provinces after the initiative has been proposed. The study has further shown that the OBOR construction not only means factor movements and projects but also stands for policy shock. Its impact on utilisation of foreign capital cannot be simply captured by the commonly quantifiable “going global” indicators, namely outward direct investment, overseas contracted projects or overseas labour services. The negative impact of the initiative on foreign capital utilisation is strongly reflected in the OBOR provinces with low levels of economic development, heavy fiscal burdens and high proportions of state‐owned economy. In the short term, the negative impact of the initiative on foreign capital utilisation may be due to its role in resource competition and signal delivering. The former means that the OBOR initiative may induce resource competition between “going global” and “bringing in,” and the latter suggests that this initiative is likely to be regarded as a “signal” by foreign investors that “going global,” not “bringing in,” has become the priority of the government.     

Liberalising the Movement of Natural Persons: A Lost Decade?

Liberalisation of international trade in services through the Movement of Natural Persons (Mode 4) remains one of the least negotiated issues of trade policy among the 144 members of the World Trade Organisation. Economists believe that there is a basic convergence of economic interest between the developed and the developing world for liberalising Mode 4. Yet the multilateral trading system has not facilitated greater worker mobility between the labour‐surplus and labour‐scarce countries. Is there any economic logic as to why cross‐border movements of workers have not followed the pattern predicted by international trade theory? Or are there strong socio‐political barriers that have come in the way of liberalising Mode 4? These are some of the questions the paper attempts to answer. The paper shows that the economic arguments against the free movement of natural persons are based on the narrow perspective of the welfare of domestic workers while ignoring the benefit it brings to the economy as a whole. Further, non‐economic arguments miss the point that the movement of workers under Mode 4 of GATS is temporary in nature, and so unlikely to have any lasting social and cultural spillovers. The paper gives specific illustrations from the recent past where temporary import of workers from labour‐surplus countries has enabled both developed and developing countries sustain their economic growth. It concludes by arguing that the environment for renegotiating WTO commitments under this important sector of international trade in services is better than ever before, even though the current world economic slowdown may delay actual negotiations for a while.     

Structural Change,Economic Crisis and International Labour Migration in East Asia

Increased international labour migration was one important dimension of structural change and globalisation in East Asia from the mid 1980s. Large international movements of mainly unskilled contract labour occurred in response to widening wage gaps between more and less developed countries in the region as the former experienced rapid structural change. Labour importing countries increasingly relied on unskilled migrant workers in less preferred jobs, in both export‐oriented and non‐tradable goods industries. The Asian economic crisis dramatically influenced the context in which international labour mobility had occurred in the pre‐crisis period. Important issues included a possible reversal in role of international migration in structural change, both among unskilled contract workers and more skilled migrants, and replacement of migrants by unemployed local workers. The paper argues that the Asian economic crisis did not reverse the fundamental trend toward greater reliance on unskilled migrant workers in agriculture, manufacturing and service industries. Business and professional migration remained significant and even rose in some countries during the crisis. However, several countries were forced to develop a more coherent policy towards migrant workers, in light of the social impact of the crisis.     

Offshoring and the Skill‐premium: Evidence from Individual Workers’ Data

During the 1980s the United States has experienced an increase in both international trade and the skill‐premium. The association between these two phenomena has proven elusive in the early empirical literature on the subject. Indeed, the consensus among labour economists seems to be that trade has not been the main cause of such increase in the skill‐premium. This view has been challenged by Feenstra and Hanson (1999, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 114, 3, 907) who find that offshoring sizably affects the skill‐premium. I revisit this debate using individual workers’ data from the March Current Population Survey combined with industry‐level trade data. This strategy improves upon the work of Feenstra and Hanson who do not control for the demographic characteristics of the labour force. In my results, offshoring can explain between 9 and 30 per cent of the increase in the college wage premium, relative to high‐school workers. In addition, I find that offshoring can explain 21 per cent of the increase in the relative employment of skilled labour. These results suggest that offshoring may play an important role in the increase in the relative demand of skilled workers.     

The Consequences of Globalisation: India's Software Industry and Cross‐border Labour Mobility1

The Indian software industry is a prime example of globalisation. The industry has been characterised by large cross‐border mobility of its skilled labour force. Using a unique survey of Indian software firms, our paper quantifies the extent and impact of mobility on firm behaviour and performance. Cross‐border labour mobility in the paper refers to both temporary and permanent labour flows by Indian software professionals. The picture that emerges is of a highly mobile world in which temporary mobility has been an important characteristic of the industry. A significant number of workers have work experience abroad in a developed country. Moreover, the share of skilled workers with such experience has been positively associated with the incidence of skilled migration from the firm. This suggests network effects are at work. In terms of the impact on performance – as measured by the change in turnover per worker and the change in the employment size of the firm – the paper finds little evidence of a robust adverse effect. Further, the evidence suggests that there have been important external effects at work, as through changes in the willingness of workers to acquire skills, as well as through increased provision of educational services. These have further abated the risk of a brain drain. However, the software industry may be rather different from other industries. Our results need to be interpreted as the outcome of a particular case of skilled migration and not one necessarily representative of all types of skilled migration and source sectors.     

How do Firms’ Outward FDI Strategies Relate to their Activity at Home? Empirical Evidence for the UK

This paper provides new empirical evidence on the relationship between the structure of firms’ overseas FDI and the performance and organisation of their home‐country operations in both manufacturing and business services. It addresses two questions. First, does sorting into multinational status on the basis of productivity extend to the scale of overseas activity? Second, is there evidence that off‐shoring to low‐wage countries has asymmetric effects on high and low‐skill activities in the home economy? The paper considers heterogeneity in firms’ outward FDI strategies and in their behaviour at home, distinguishing between low‐skill and high‐skill‐intensive activities. I differentiate between firms that invest in relatively low‐wage economies and hence might be engaged in vertical FDI, and those that only invest in high‐wage economies. I find that firms that invest in low‐wage economies simultaneously invest in a large number of high‐wage economies, employing complex FDI strategies. I add to existing evidence by demonstrating that selection into multinational status on productivity extends beyond the decision of whether or not to engage in FDI, to the geographic scope of overseas operations. This is consistent with the highest productivity firms being best able to overcome large fixed costs of establishing multiple overseas facilities. I find evidence consistent with differential effects of vertical FDI on firms’ high and low‐skill manufacturing activity in the UK. Relocating low‐skill activity to relatively low‐wage economies could enable a firm to expand output, with potential positive effects on investment, employment and output in complementary (high‐skill) activities at home. For firms investing in relatively low‐wage economies, I find that labour in these countries may substitute for relatively low‐skilled labour in the UK. In high‐skill manufacturing industries I find that multinationals that invest in low‐wage economies are larger, more capital intensive and more intensive in their use of intermediate inputs than other UK‐owned firms.     

The Positive Effects of the Schengen Agreement on European Trade

Enacted in 1985, the Schengen Agreement is widely heralded as both a symbol and major institutional advancement of the European project. By eliminating passport requirements for workers, the compact ostensibly produces gains from travel, ease of market access and economies of scale. Yet despite these optimistic predictions, scholars know little about the actual effects of Schengen on trade. We fill this void by identifying why labour mobility should expand the cross‐country exchange of goods and services and then test our theory with data from Europe spanning the period 1980 to 2011. We argue that labour mobility resulting from Schengen yields positive effects on trade by increasing demand for foreign goods, improving awareness of low‐cost producers abroad and lowering the risks associated with buying and selling outside the country. Using the gravity model of trade, we show empirically that Schengen membership makes European states more robust trading partners.     

Assessing the Benefits to Developing Countries of Liberalisation in Services Trade

This paper discusses the potential impacts of services trade liberalisation on developing countries and reviews existing quantitative studies. Its purpose is to distill themes from current literature rather than to advocate specific policy changes. The picture emerging is one of valiant attempts to quantify in the presence of formidable analytical and data problems yielding only a clouded image of likely impacts on trade, consumption, production and welfare emerging to the point that the policy implications of results are not always clear. A central intuition would seem to be that with genuine two‐sided (OECD/non‐OECD) liberalisation in services that are seemingly considerably labour‐intensive in delivery, the potential should be there for significant developing country gains from global liberalisation allowing full cross‐border delivery. However, this picture is neither fully endorsed by available studies, neither is it explicitly contradicted. This seems to be the case for a number of reasons. One difficulty with the studies is that the conceptual underpinnings of what determines trade in services and how this trade differs analytically from that of trade in goods (if at all) is an issue prior to assessments of impacts of liberalisation of trade in services on developing countries being discussed. Key issues here are the treatment of mobility for service providers (both firms and workers), and the differing analytical structures needed to analyse individual service items (banking, insurance, telecoms, etc.). Some recent analytical work suggests that liber‐alisation in some service items, such as banking, need not always yield gains, and this contrasts with quantitative studies where analytical structures mirror conventional trade in goods treatments. The discussion and measurement of barriers to service trade in both developed and developing countries is also problematic. One is talking of domestic regulation, entry barriers, portability of providers, competition policy regimes more so than only barriers at national borders, as with tariffs. Both representing and quantifying such barriers raise major difficulties, and these are also spelled out in the paper. Which barriers actually restrict trade, and which do not because they are redundant is one issue, for instance. It is also often misleading to represent barriers in simple ad valorem equivalent form. As a result, numerical modelling work on the effects of service trade barriers which is based on ad valorem equivalent modelling is often not fully convincing. In addition, individual country results vary considerably across studies in ways that it is frequently hard for outsiders to understand. Studies do, however, point towards a tentative conclusion that effects are small and positive for developed and most developing countries if FDI flow changes accompanying service trade liberalisation are excluded from the analysis, but much larger and more variable across countries if they are present. This could be taken to suggest that mode 3 GATS liberalisation (roughly captured in some studies) might be important for developing countries; but mode 4 GATS liberalisation could be even more important given large barriers to labour flows across countries. Thus, if service trade liberalisation is thought of primarily as a surrogate for improved functioning of global factor markets in which more capital flows to developing countries and more labour flows from them to developed countries, then developing countries could benefit in a major way from genuine two‐sided (OECD/non‐OECD) liberalisation. Developing countries fear, however, that in global negotiations on services liberalisation where there is an asymmetry of power that largely one‐sided liberalisation may be the outcome, and their gains will be correspondingly limited. The paper concludes by evaluating econometric studies on linkage between services liberalisation and country growth rules, and briefly discusses some key sectoral issues in health services and transportation.     

Offshore Outsourcing and Non‐production Workers: Firm‐level Relationships Disaggregated by Skills and Suppliers

In analysing the impact of offshoring on the skill composition, previous empirical studies have established that offshoring firms employ more non‐production workers. However, not all non‐production workers are highly skilled. This paper disaggregates non‐production workers into the following three categories: (i) skilled non‐production workers, (ii) unskilled non‐production workers and (iii) non‐production workers with special skills for offshoring and other overseas business management. By linking our offshoring survey data with firm‐level data for Japanese manufacturing firms, this paper finds that the share of skilled non‐production workers tends to be significantly high in offshoring firms but that of unskilled non‐production workers is not. As offshoring has expanded from production to non‐production tasks, this result implies that the distinction between skilled versus unskilled workers becomes critical among non‐production workers. Using our unique data on supplier types in offshoring, this paper finds that the share of non‐production workers for the management of overseas activities tends to be high in foreign direct investment firms and in firms outsourcing to foreign independent suppliers, but not in Japanese firms outsourcing to offshore suppliers located abroad but owned by other Japanese firms. This difference indicates that coordination burdens are likely to be at least partly mitigated by common languages or shared business practices. These findings suggest that offshoring has different impacts on employment depending on suppliers and the worker’s skill. The principal results are confirmed robust even after various firm characteristics are controlled for in panel regressions, though we should not give any causal interpretations.     

Outsourcing and the US Labour Market

There is worldwide concern about the vulnerability of the current labour force to displacement by future imported services. In the USA, some have suggested that as much as one‐third of the workforce might be vulnerable to such outsourcing. However, the labour market impacts of this displacement are difficult to assess using purely analytical or statistical approaches. In this paper, simulation methods are used to understand how sensitive the US economy and labour market are to increases in services imports. Specifically, the scenario examined assumes that the share of imported services in total employment increases from 0.8 per cent to 7.25 per cent over a time horizon in which workers are unable to change occupations. In response, it is found that all industries increase their use of imported services and their use of the composite input that is comprised of imported services and tradable labour. With the exception of legal workers, all workers in tradable occupations experience declines in their real wages. Demand for non‐tradable occupations labour rises in the industries that expand the most, while demand falls in shrinking industries. The non‐tradable occupations that are used intensively in the shrinking industries experience declines in real wages, while the real wages rise for workers in non‐tradable occupations used intensively in the expanding industries.     

DECONSTRUCTING THE LABOUR SUPPLY CURVE

The nature and determinants of the supply of labour are re‐examined. Standard theories of labour supply, it is argued, have neglected to consider the affects of the quality of work activities on the motivation and welfare of workers. Work has tended to be seen as a means to an end rather than an end in itself and most attention has been given to the manipulation of wage incentives in affecting labour supply, to the neglect of changes in the work environment. The original contributions of W. Stanley Jevons and Alfred Marshall, in contrast, are shown to offer a fuller account of the work decision.     

Internationalization of services: The case of intra‐multinational enterprise trade

Increased tradability of services, made possible by the information and communications technology (ICT) revolution, has been at the heart of the internationalization of services. Although rapid growth of the services trade between parents of multinational enterprises (MNEs) and their overseas subsidiaries has contributed to the internationalization of services, empirical studies examining the determinants of intra‐MNE trade in services are few. This article, using the ownership, location, and internalization (OLI) framework, attempts to explain intra‐MNE trade in services. The results provide strong support for the OLI perspective, and posit a complementary relationship between manufacturing foreign direct investment and intra‐MNE services trade. The results also suggest the importance of subsidiaries' absorptive capacity and breadth of global connectedness for intra‐MNE trade.     

HIRING STANDARDS AND LABOUR MARKET CLEARING

Consider a labour market with heterogeneous workers. When recruiting workers, firms set a hiring standard and make a wage offer. A more demanding hiring standard necessitates a better wage offer in order to attract enough qualified applicants. As a result, an efficiency wage effect is obtained. An equilibrium emerges which does not clear the labour market. The wage level depends on structural characteristics of labour supply, such as heterogeneity and mobility of the workers, but—in contrast to other efficiency‐wage models—not on the level of unemployment and is, thus, compatible with increasing unemployment as observed, e.g. in Germany.     

Shadow price of working in the shadows: services industry evidence

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we use an exogenous policy variation in the labour market to determine the wage gap between formally and informally employed workers. For our purposes, ‘informal employment’ describes employees who are not officially registered with any social security scheme. We use self-reported employee registration status to identify such workers, but the choice of working unregistered is not exogenous. Nevertheless, through an amnesty that was extended to only some workers in the labour market, we reduce the endogeneity problem, enabling estimation of the wage gap between these two groups. Our two-stage least square estimates reveal that the hourly wage penalty of working in the shadows is as high as 59%, and the monthly salary penalty is around 66%. Moreover, the wage gap is higher (as high as 70%) for those working in the services sector, as unregistered workers in this sector tend to be low skilled and low educated, and the monitoring of this sector is more difficult. Our analysis contributes to the literature by using an instrumental variable to treat the endogeneity of workers’ registration status. In addition, it shows that people working informally in the services industry receive a higher average wage penalty than other informally employed workers.     

International Migration and Child labour in Developing Countries

This paper investigates the labor market effect of international migration on child work in countries of origin. We use an original cross‐country survey dataset, which combines information on international migration with detailed  individual‐level data on child labour at age 5–14 in a wide range of developing countries. By exploiting both within and cross‐country variation and controlling for country fixed effects, we find strong and robust evidence on the role of international mobility of workers in reducing child labour in disadvantaged households through changes in the local labour market.     

Redistribution of Trade Gains in the Presence of Firm and Worker Heterogeneity

Trade gains are unequally distributed; in particular, low‐ability workers lose out in terms of wages and employment probability. In this paper, we investigate the impact of redistribution schemes on aggregate and disaggregate variables. To this end, we built a trade model with trade unions, heterogeneous firms and workers. Three redistribution schemes are distinguished: unemployment benefits financed by either a wage tax, a payroll tax or a profit tax. We find that: (i) all three redistribution schemes reduce output per capita; (ii) but the marginal reduction is lowest in the wage tax funding scenario; and (iii) If the profit tax is used, labour demand for low‐ability workers increases.     

Liberalising Temporary Movement of Natural Persons: An Agenda for the Development Round

We discuss liberalising the temporary mobility of workers under Mode 4 of the GATS, particularly the movement of medium and low skilled service providers between developing and developed countries. Such mobility potentially offers huge returns: a flow equivalent to three per cent of developed countries’ skilled and unskilled work forces would generate an estimated increase in world welfare of over US$150 billion, shared fairly equally between developing and developed countries. The larger part of this emanates from the less‐skilled, essentially because losing higher‐skilled workers cuts output in developing countries severely. The mass migration of less skilled workers raises fears in developed countries for cultural identity, problems of assimilation and the drain on the public purse. These fears are hardly relevant to temporary movement, however. The biggest economic concern from temporary mobility is its competitive challenge to local less skilled workers. But as populations age and the average levels of training and education rise, developed countries will face an increasing scarcity of less skilled labour. Temporary mobility thus actually offers a strong communality of interest between developing and developed countries. The remainder of the paper looks at the GATS provisions on Mode 4 and the commitments that have been made under it. The paper reviews several official proposals for the Doha talks, including the very detailed one from India, and considers several countries’ existing schemes for the temporary movement of foreign workers. Many countries have long had bilateral foreign worker programmes, and some regional agreements provide for liberal and flexible movement. These show what is feasible and how concerns can be overcome. We caution that, to be useful, any WTO agreement must increase mobility, not just bureaucratise it. The paper concludes with some modest and practical proposals. We suggest, inter alia, that licensing firms to arrange the movement of labour is the most promising short‐term approach to increasing temporary mobility.     

Foreign direct investment and inequality: Evidence from China's policy change

In this paper, we examine the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on local urban inequality in China. Specifically, we consider the FDI policy change as an exogenous shock on the local labour markets. We find that cities that have experienced a bigger policy change in promoting FDI between 1997 and 2002 are significantly more unequal in 2005. This pattern is mainly driven by the positive association between FDI liberalisation and skill premia. The result holds after we control for other policy changes, such as privatisation of state-owned enterprises, infrastructure and trade liberalisation. We then turn to investigate the mechanisms using firm and individual-level information. Our firm-level evidence shows that FDI firms not only hire relatively more high-skilled workers but also provide relatively higher wages to high-skilled workers compared to domestic firms. Moreover, the individual-level analysis shows that FDI has a significantly positive spillover effect on wages received by skilled workers employed by state-owned enterprises, but not wages of unskilled workers.     

Labour market characteristics and surviving import shocks

This paper investigates whether different labour market characteristics amplify or dampen the local labour market impacts from Chinese import competition exposure. I exploit state‐level variation in initial, pre‐shock labour market characteristics and regional variation across local labour markets in exposure to Chinese imports for identification. I find that local labour markets in states with higher union density experience more severe adverse consequences as a result of increased import exposure. Conversely, higher initial minimum wages help mute the negative impacts of the China shock. I also provide some evidence that exceptions to employment‐at‐will legislation can affect employment responses to increased Chinese imports. Finally, examining all policies together in an index, I show that higher levels of policies intended to benefit and protect workers can actually magnify the extent of the damage inflicted by import competition. My results suggest that initial labour market characteristics and policies can play an important role in understanding why local labour markets react differently to trade shocks.