Social responsibility of countries and their international trade: A gravitational approach

This article presents an econometric study based on a gravitational model estimation of the link between the prevailing social conditions in a country and its exports. It is based on an original indicator of social conditions: the Responsible Competitiveness Index (RCI) launched in 2007 by AccountAbility, the organisation that introduced the international AA1000 Standard. The regressions initially show a positive connection between the social responsibility of the countries and their exports. It is not a linear connection but shows a bell-shaped curve stronger in countries with lower levels of social responsibility (Southern countries): it can be negative in countries with high levels of social responsibility (Northern countries).     

通用贸易定律及其在中国对外贸易中的验证

在贸易理论中能够定量应用于两个经济之间贸易额计算的,目前只有引力模型。但引力模型在实践中的应用效果并不令人满意。注意到贸易的本质就是交换,贸易额与产出之间应该存在着某种特定的数量关系,本文认为引力模型的基本形式应该能够普遍适用于国内贸易和国际贸易,并称之为“贸易定律”。模型中的距离应该理解为“经济距离”,代表运输成本。据此思路以中国对外贸易数据进行验证,贸易定律是有效的。     

A re-examination of the relation between democracy and international trade

Scholars and policy makers believe that democracy will bring prosperity through integration into the global economy via increased international trade. Existing research is plagued by methodological problems that obscure the empirics and avoid the theoretical problem of why democracies may or may not trade more. In this paper, I seek to correct these shortcomings. I test two theories as to why democracies might trade more. First, political freedom may be correlated with economic freedom, thus prompting higher levels of economic activity, thereby driving states to trade more. Second, democracy implies higher quality governance either through institutions or policy making procedures. To test the impact of democracy on trade and the potential transmission mechanisms, I utilize a bilateral gravity trade model covering approximately 150 countries from 1950 to 1999, with fixed effects for time, importers, and exporters. I find the theory that democracy, and many of its components, promotes international trade unconvincing. The coefficients are the theoretically correct sign; however, many are statistically or economically insignificant and fragile to changes in modeling or data. Economic freedom does not have the expected impact on international trade levels, but quality of governance variables have broad economic and statistical significance.     

中国与“一带一路”沿线国家服务贸易影响因素探究

在分析中国与"一带一路"沿线国家服务贸易影响因素的理论基础上,采用2006~2015年"一带一路"沿线22个国家的面板数据,探讨了中国与"一带一路"沿线国家的服务贸易格局。借助贸易引力模型实证分析经济发展水平、服务业发展水平、服务贸易开放度、地理距离、城市化水平和制度环境等因素对中国与"一带一路"沿线国家服务贸易的影响。根据研究结论提出关于促进中国与"一带一路"沿线国家服务贸易发展、提升中国服务贸易竞争力和推动中国服务出口的政策启示。     

中美服务贸易的本地市场效应研究

本文利用1992~2014年的数据对中美服务贸易的本地市场效应进行了实证检验,发现本地市场效应和劳动力要素禀赋均促进了中国对美国的服务出口,后者小于前者;运输服务和旅游服务、教育服务、金融服务、保险服务、电信服务、广告服务、研发与测试服务及建筑工程咨询服务的本地市场效应显著,计算机与信息服务的本地市场效应没有通过显著性检验,专利权与特许费、管理、咨询与公共关系服务、法律服务、设备的安装、维护与修理服务不存在本地市场效应。因此,一些传统服务贸易行业存在本地市场效应,一些新兴服务贸易行业也存在本地市场效应,说明可以通过发挥本地市场效应来扩大中国对美国服务出口,扭转服务贸易逆差,优化服务贸易结构。     

A longitudinal meta-analysis of corruption in international business and trade: Bridging the isolated themes

ABSTRACT

This article chronicles the academic debate on corruption in international business and trade. It identifies three themes: contributing factors, consequences, and combating corruption. We found convergence in the literature and that authors tend to remain loyal to their chosen theme. As a result, we found a distressing dearth of research that transcends, integrates, or validates the interrelationships between them. Through our work, we propose the bridging of themes, demonstrating how they interrelate, thereby validating their interdependencies and the broader lens needed through which to observe corruption in international business.     

EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH IN THE AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY

This article examines empirically the exchange rate pass-through of car manufacturers on the Swedish market. It first analyzes the changes in prices by supplying countries during the period 1976 - 1996. In a second stage, the relationship between price-level adjusted exchange rates and quality-adjusted prices is investigated. Although there exist significant differences across countries, the evidence shows that actual price adjustments are associated with stabilization of local currency prices. The policy implication of the results is that the use of an exchange rate policy in the case of external imbalances should therefore be reconsidered within the broader context of how market structure and conduct influence the optimal pricing of traded goods.     

Trade law and trade flows

This paper develops and estimates a model to study the effect of improving the quality of commercial trade law on trade flows. We focus on improvements aimed to privately resolve disputes among trading partners: international commercial arbitration and conciliation. The main novelty of the model is to explicit the balance between the contractual quality of importer and exporter (contractual distance) in an environment with informational frictions (contractual noise). Using a structural gravity estimation with high-dimensional fixed effects, the main contribution of the empirical exercise is to confirm previous results and unravel new traits that align with our theoretical results. Arbitration has a moderate and positive effect on exports that increases (decreases) with the contractual quality of the exporter (importer) and the remoteness of markets. The effects of conciliation are similarly positive, but only for similar trading partners with high levels of income. Results also suggest both domestic trade law reform and international treaties have a positive effect on trade, with a stronger effect of the latter.     

The labor market effects of the China Syndrome: Evidence from South Korean manufacturing

We evaluate the direct impact of China trade shock on the Korean labour market following the approach of Acemoglu, Autor, Dorn, Hanson, and Price (Journal of Labor Economics, 2016, 34, S1). Using firm- and industry-level data for the period 1993–2013, our direct estimates imply that the net employment effect of the China shock in the manufacturing sector is the creation of 0.52 million jobs. The positive impact is mostly driven by China's rising demand for intermediate inputs and capital goods from Korea to support its export expansion to the global economy. The import-competition channel plays a negligible role in manufacturing employment because it creates temporary jobs that merely compensate for the loss in permanent jobs. By contrast, over the same period, the average wage declined by 2.4%, and income inequality, measured as the gap between the high- and low-income quantile, grew substantially in manufacturing. In addition, we find that the direct effect of China shock lowers labour market concentration by shifting workers from big firms to small- and medium-sized firms.     

Facilitating international production networks: The role of trade logistics

Networked trade in parts and components is more sensitive to the importer's logistics performance than is final goods trade. The difference between the two trade semi-elasticities is over 45%, which is quantitatively important. We also find that logistics performance is particularly important for trade among developing countries in the Asia-Pacific region, which is where the emergence of production networks has been most pronounced. Logistics performance is also more important for South–South trade than for South–North trade. Our results suggest that developing country policymakers can support the development of international production networks by improving trade logistics performance.     

我国单位物流成本对国际贸易的影响——基于贸易引力模型的实证分析

用单位货物周转费用代表单位物流成本,考察物流对贸易的影响,引入贸易引力模型并对其进行合理的改进。并提出模型的理论假设。通过回归分析和因果关系检验,可以得到的结论是：单位货物周转费降低对国际贸易具有明显的促进作用,证明了中国与世界上其他国家的双边货物贸易额与双方的人均收入成正比,与单位货物周转费用成反比。既验证了传统贸易引力模型的正确性。也肯定了对贸易引力模型说进行的改进。     

国际服务贸易对浙江省经济增长的贡献分析

近年来,国际服务贸易在全球经济结构转化大趋势下得以迅猛发展,相对而言,浙江省国际服务贸易发展相对滞后。采用浙江省1995年～2010年国际服务贸易和GDP的数据建立模型,分析结果发现浙江省国际服务贸易进口和出口与GDP之间存在正向相关性,国际服务贸易进口对国民经济增长的贡献要比出口大,对经济增长的拉动作用更明显。     

Effects of wars and boycotts on international trade: Evidence from the late Ottoman Empire

Abstract

Between 1830 and 1913, the Ottoman Empire was involved in destructive wars with its trading partners. Boycotts were organized against Bulgaria and Austria-Hungary. The effects of wars and boycotts are a topic of debate among historians. This article examines whether wars and boycotts were associated with how the Ottoman Empire traded with its trading partners from 1830 to 1913. The findings indicate a decrease in trade with its adversaries during the Russo-Turkish War of 1877–78, the Crimean War, and the Balkan Wars. In addition, there was a statistically significant reduction in trade with Austria-Hungary due to the boycott.     

The gravity model,African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and US trade relations with sub-Saharan Africa

The United States of America enacted the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) in 2000 to grant sub-Saharan African countries (SSA) a preferential treatment in their exports to the USA. With this Act, most of the exports from SSA can now enter the USA duty-free, and this is expected to boost the exporting and manufacturing sectors in SSA. Hopefully, this singular act of assistance from the USA will spur entrepreneurship in SSA, thereby creating jobs and jump starting meaningful economic growth in the region. Since trade is a major catalyst in economic development, AGOA is arguably the most meaningful intervention from a developed country to an under-developed region such as SSA in recent times. Has AGOA had any impact on US trade with SSA? This paper sheds some light on this issue by examining the flow and composition of trade between the USA and AGOA countries. The analysis uses trade data (US imports) for 36 countries over 12 years. Empirical estimations based on the gravity model show that receiving AGOA status has a strong positive and significant impact on overall trade with the US. Interestingly, however, the analysis also shows a disproportionate impact of crude oil imports from the oil-producing countries of Angola, Gabon, and Nigeria, which is clearly not the intent of the Act.     

On the gains from an expansion in factor mobility in bilateral trade

A single composite-good two-factor input production model is employed to investigate the gains from an expansion in factor mobility between two countries with different neoclassical technologies. Necessary and sufficient conditions for both countries to gain from an expansion in factor mobility are established. The analysis then develops a criterion based on market information for predicting whether a country would gain from an expansion in factor mobility. Finally, the income distributional effects within and between countries of an expansion in factor mobility are discussed.     

GATS下自然人流动对美国服务贸易进出口的影响——基于引力模型的实证分析

文章利用修正后的引力模型研究美国自然人流动对其服务贸易进出口的影响,实证结果表明,自然人流动对服务出口有较大的促进作用,对服务进口的带动作用却不明显。综合自然人流动对双边服务贸易的影响,文章认为自然人流动自由化对服务贸易的促进作用远大于对货物贸易的带动作用。     

国际贸易中的反倾销调查原因分析与对策研究

近年来,中国已经成为全球范围内遭受反倾销调查案最多的国家,为中国企业国际市场开拓带来严重阻碍。本文围绕国际贸易中反倾销调查原因进行分析探讨,结合国内市场实情寻求解决对策,希望通过本文的论述,唤起政府有关部门以及国内企业对反倾销问题的重视。     

我国服务贸易的发展及国际竞争力的实证分析

为了对我国服务贸易的发展状况和国际竞争力进行比较全面的分析和评价,本文运用7项指标分别对我国服务贸易的总体发展状况、总体国际竞争力状况及服务贸易各分部门的发展和竞争力状况进行了全面的实证分析和评价,并得出结论。     

Putting Canada in the penalty box: Trade and welfare effects of eliminating North American Free Trade Agreement

Three years ago, very few economists would have imagined that one of the newest and fastest growing research areas in international trade is the use of quantitative trade models to estimate the economic welfare losses from dissolutions of major countries' economic integration agreements (EIAs). In 2016, "Brexit" was passed in a UK referendum. Moreover, in 2019, the existence of the entire North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is at risk if the US withdraws—a threat President Trump has made if the proposed US–Mexico–Canada Agreement is not passed by the US Congress. We use state‐of‐the‐art econometric methodology to estimate the partial (average treatment) effects on international trade flows of the six major types of EIAs. Armed with precise estimates of the average treatment effect for a free trade agreement, we examine the general equilibrium trade and welfare effects of the elimination of NAFTA (and for robustness US withdrawal only). Although all the member countries' standards of living fall, surprisingly the smallest economy, Mexico, is not the biggest loser; Canada is the biggest loser. Canada's welfare (per capita income) loss of 2.11% is nearly two times that of Mexico's loss of 1.15% and is nearly eight times the US' loss of 0.27%. The simulations will illustrate the important influence of trade costs—international and intranational—in contributing to the gains (or losses) from an EIA's formation (or elimination).     

贸易引力模型研究新进展及其在中国的应用

贸易引力模型作为分析双边贸易量的工具已在国际贸易中得到广泛应用。本文首先介绍了贸易引力模型的内涵和形式,然后把贸易引力模型的实证研究新进展分为调整解释变量和解释边境效应两个阶段进行了梳理,从基于贸易理论基础和不基于贸易理论基础两个角度对贸易引力模型理论基础推导新进展进行了分析,对贸易引力模型在中国对外贸易中的应用进行了介绍。最后进行了评述和展望,并指出中国贸易引力模型的研究方向。