Market reactions to export subsidies

This paper analyzes the economic impact of export subsidies by investigating stock price reactions to a critical event in 1997. On November 18, 1997, the European Union announced its intention to file a complaint before the World Trade Organization (WTO), arguing that the United States provided American exporters illegal subsidies by permitting them to use Foreign Sales Corporations to exempt a fraction of export profits from taxation. Share prices of American exporters fell sharply on this news, and its implication that the WTO might force the United States to eliminate the subsidy, which happened in 2004. The share price declines were largest for exporters with high profit margins and those whose tax situations made the threatened export subsidy particularly valuable. This evidence suggests that export subsidies do not merely benefit foreign consumers, but also improve the profitability of exporters, particularly those earning rents in imperfectly competitive markets.     

外贸转型升级背景下外贸企业出口转内销的路径选择

在后危机时代,出口转内销不仅成为我国外贸企业解决出口问题的重要举措,更是实现外贸转型升级和建立内外贸一体化的现代流通体系的客观要求。为减少外贸企业转向国内市场的阻力,中央及地方各级政府和有关部门出台了一系列的鼓励政策,并积极为企业搭建直销平台。但由于内外贸运营模式的不同,外贸企业在开拓内销市场时,存在着诸如销售渠道不畅、缺乏自主品牌和融资渠道、税务问题导致销售成本增加等障碍和壁垒。为实现内外贸融合,政府应打造良好的政策环境,帮助外贸企业拓展内销渠道,加大对打造自主品牌的政策扶持力度,切实解决外贸企业融资难等问题;外贸企业则要转变经营模式,内外贸兼举。     

中国发展内循环经济与拉动内需的思考

中国巨大的经济体量仅仅依靠外部需求拉动已不太现实,内需市场和内循环经济的重要性由此凸显。2018年中美贸易战爆发以来,外部经济环境变化使得外循环经济的可靠性大打折扣,中国急切需要一个强大稳定的内需市场予以支撑。中国企业自主创新能力和全要素生产率提升能力不足、企业在全球价值链分工中的位次不利于提升制造业部门工资水平、经济金融化和钱生钱逻辑倾向不利于扩大中等收入群体规模等问题,逐渐成为当前中国拉动内需、发展内循环经济的突出体制机制障碍。应采取积级应对当前不利局面、推动经济增长内生动力机制转换,积极应对美国打压、培育内需市场为中国高科技发展提供动力,坚持国内国际双循环发展新格局,加快形成两个市场良性循环机制等措施,推动中国经济持续健康发展。     

我国内需与外需发展不平衡问题的原因探讨

国际金融危机引发了世界各国经济的动荡,我国长期以来内需不足、外贸依存度过高、经济增长主要靠外需拉动的发展模式所产生的问题开始凸显。通过对我国内需与外需发展现状及问题的阐述,深入探析我国内外需发展失衡的原因,并在此基础上提出要制定合理的分配制度、健全社会保障体系、保持合理的投资增长速度、转变贸易增长方式等对策建议。     

Multi-stage purchase decision models: Accommodating response heterogeneity, common demand shocks, and endogeneity using disaggregate data

The most comprehensive models of purchase behavior for frequently purchased supermarket items explain households' purchase incidence decisions (whether to buy), brand choice decisions (what to buy), and purchase quantity decisions (how much to buy). In this study, we develop a three-stage purchase incidence/brand choice/purchase quantity model for household-level data in which all three stages are specified with (i) random coefficient distributions for model covariates and (ii) random effect distributions to account for unobserved factors affecting demand (known as common demand shocks), while also (iii) controlling for the effects of endogeneity on prices. Compared to current state-of-the-art models for multi-stage purchase decisions, the results show improvements in fit and forecasting accuracy when purchase behaviors are modeled with all of these components in combination. Perhaps more importantly, when common demand shocks are ignored, substantial differences in parameter estimates and diagnostic information about consumer behavior are likely (median differences in parameter estimates are 10% and 20% in two product categories), which impact managerial deliberations about price and promotion policies. Further, failure to account for common demand shocks affects the mean and variance of random coefficient distributions in unpredictable directions, which could produce results that encourage managers to pursue inappropriate and costly micro-level product marketing strategies.     

扩大内需与促进出口关系的实证分析——基于国内消费视角

文章从国内消费视角,分析了扩大内需与促进出口的相互影响和传导路径,并基于1981～2008年中美两国的相关数据,运用协整理论进行检验。结果表明,长期中,内需与出口具有相互影响、相互促进的作用。除二者间相互的直接作用外,在促进内需增长的同时,出口会受到内需增长溢出效应的作用而增长,而刺激出口增长的同时,国内需求会受到外需反馈效应的作用而扩大。     

Analysis of Relative Growth Rates Between Domestic and International Earnings of U.S. Based Publicly Traded Restaurant Firms

ABSTRACT

This study explores the relative growth rates in earnings of public restaurant firms for a 20-year period from 1981-2000. No significant differences were found in sales growth between multinational and domestic restaurant firms. However, multinational firms significantly outperformed domestic firms in growth of operating income and pre-tax profitability. Multinational restaurant firms also had significantly lower negative growth in domestic earnings when compared to domestic firms. The results imply that multinational restaurant firms are more efficient than domestic firms in converting sales into profits.     

内外贸一体化中的对外贸易政策调整

由美国次级贷款问题引发的愈演愈烈的全球金融危机,将使中国经济发展面临国际市场需求紧缩和国内需求市场疲软的双重压力。从中长期来看,积极推进内外贸一体化发展,是缓解内外压力,保持经济持续较快发展的重要途径之一。为此,必须深入研究内外贸一体化的客观经济机制,促进国内外贸易政策的协调。     

外部需求冲击与中国投资波动——基于“冲击—传导”关联的实证分析

随着中国参与国际市场分工程度的加深,外部需求冲击与本国经济波动的关联已非净出口所能涵盖,投资已成为净出口之外传导外部需求冲击的重要路径。从因应外部需求冲击的角度对1997年以来中国投资波动进行结构分析,运用OLS回归与ARMA组合模型和Granger因果检验识别外部需求冲击传导的投资路径。结果表明,总投资中的出口引致性投资对于外部需求冲击的反应是敏感的,外部需求与政府预算内投资、外商直接投资以及自筹资金投资之间存在着"冲击—传导"关联。     

立足服务内需 发展国内物流企业

本文从国内物流市场供应与需求两方面入手,结合物流企业在正确分析市场供需的前提下,实现自身发展,以适应国家物流整个产业的调整振兴,最终满足物流市场的需求,提升综合服务水平。通过针对物流企业发展的供需矛盾剖析、企业发展定位,提出可以适合企业实践运作的发展策略,对目前国内物流企业的调整发展具有实践指导意义。     

扩大内需的根本在于改善民生

扩大内需战略已经提出很多年,虽然也取得一定成效．但从总体上来看,我国内需市场可挖掘的空间仍然很大,扩大内需不是通货膨胀式的扩大内需,也不是造成未来产能过剩式的扩大内需,应是实实在在的扩大。即富民下的扩大内需。因此,要立足于改善民生地扩大内需,让全体人民共享社会经济发展的成果,只有改善了民生,才能真正做到扩大内需。     

Learning to export from neighbors

This paper studies how learning from neighboring firms affects new exporters' performance. We develop a statistical decision model in which a firm updates its prior belief about demand in a foreign market based on several factors, including the number of neighbors currently selling there, the level and heterogeneity of their export sales, and the firm's own prior knowledge about the market. A positive signal about demand inferred from neighbors' export performance raises the firm's probability of entry and initial sales in the market but, conditional on survival, lowers its post-entry growth. These learning effects are stronger when there are more neighbors to learn from or when the firm is less familiar with the market. We find supporting evidence for the main predictions of the model from transaction-level data for all Chinese exporters over the 2000-2006 period. Our findings are robust to controlling for firms' supply shocks, countries' demand shocks, and city-country fixed effects.     

关于扩大投资拉动内需的四点看法

目前,我国经济在受到全球金融危机和世界经济增长明显放缓的影响下,作出了以扩大内需、调整结构、转变增长方式保发展的决策.这是非常正确的选择.但在靠扩大投资拉动内需的过程中,要认真按经济规律办事,防止重复投资造成新的损失.要以人为本,突出民生,尤其要以农业为基础,实现统筹兼顾,和谐发展.     

The empirical link between export dispersion and export performance: A contingency-based approach

Practitioners and scholars point out that firms are increasingly dispersing their capabilities across organizational functions. However, it is not clear whether all forms of dispersion, of any function, result in the same consequences. This study initiates investigation into the link between the cross-functional dispersion of influence on export marketing decisions (export dispersion) and export performance. Drawing on data from a sample of 225 UK exporters, the findings support the argument that active participation of non-export functions in export-marketing decisions affects export success. However, those performance consequences are dependent on internal and external contingencies. Export dispersion is beneficial for export performance when the export customer environment is more turbulent and, simultaneously, the export technological environment is more stable and the firm has lower levels of export information sharing. In all other scenarios examined in this study, greater levels of concentration of export decision-making (i.e. lower levels of export dispersion) appear to be more beneficial for export performance. Our findings imply that the management of the firm’s level of export dispersion is a complex task, whereby the degree of export dispersion pursued needs to match external environmental and internal firm factors.     

外国应对贸易保护经验谈及对我国的启示

经济学者普遍认为,在世界经济的繁荣期,政府决策偏向自由贸易;经济危机后,世界各国在呼吁国际合作同时,却又采取着不同形式的贸易保护政策,尽管贸易自由化已经是大势所趋,但各国的贸易保护却愈演愈烈,中国作为有着勃勃生机的新生经济体,受到多国政府的频频发难,已成为遭受贸易保护主义损失最大的国家之一,应对贸易保护已是当务之急。回顾别国在经济发展中应对贸易摩擦的经验,得到我国应对贸易摩擦的有益启示。     

我国扩大内需的社会政策研究——基于改善消费环境的视角

近些年来,为解决我国居民消费率持续偏低问题,我国政府相继出台了如家电下乡、社会保障体系改革、文化宣传和引导等一系列扩大内需的消费政策,对内需不足起到了一定程度的缓解作用。但尚未取得预期效果。面对国际国内经济发展态势,长期坚持扩大内需政策是我国经济持续发展的必然选择。我国应进一步改善消费环境,加大社会保障制度改革力度;正确对待传统的消费文化观念,营造良好的文化环境;扫除消费体制障碍,优化消费的制度环境;加强基础设施建设,打造良好的消费硬环境。     

农民收入下降的原因及其对策研究

农民收入的下降 ,导致农村消费的滞后 ,直接制约着国内市场需求的增长 ,从而影响我国国民经济的增长。因此 ,探究农民收入下降的原因 ,寻找增加农民收入的有效途径 ,在当前具有特别重要的意义。