美元周期性波动对我国跨境资本流动的非对称效应研究

有效应对和防范跨境资本流动冲击，维护外汇市场稳定是贯彻落实习总书记“打好防范化解重大风险攻坚战”的重要举措。目前，美元已进入强周期，我国正面临着由强势美元引发的货币贬值、资本外流等风险，当前背景下研究美元周期性波动特征、区制划分及其对跨境资本流动的影响具有重要的理论和现实意义。本文基于2006年10月至2018年6月的月度数据，运用理论模型和MSVAR模型分析美元周期性波动对我国跨境资本流动的非对称效应。研究表明，中美利差对跨境资本流动的影响存在非对称效应，当投资者不存在恐慌避险情绪时，利差的变化将不会引起大规模的跨国资本流动。美元指数对跨境资本流动的冲击效应具有一定的时滞性，美元升值将引发跨境资本流出，且冲击效应持续时间明显长于利差冲击。VIX指数和人民币汇率对跨境资本流动影响较弱，但呈现非对称性特征。加息和缩表后美元升值对资本外流的推动作用明显强于加息和缩表前，表明第三轮强周期下美元升值对我国跨境资本流动的影响更大。     

Surges

This paper examines when and why capital sometimes surges to emerging market economies (EMEs). Using data on net capital flows for 56 EMEs over 1980−2011, we find that global factors, including US interest rates and investor risk aversion act as “gatekeepers” that determine when surges of capital to EMEs will occur. Whether a particular EME receives a surge, and the magnitude of that surge, however, depends largely on domestic factors such as its external financing need, capital account openness, and exchange rate regime. Differentiating between surges driven by exceptional behavior of asset flows (repatriation of foreign assets by domestic residents) from those driven by exceptional behavior of liability flows (nonresident investments into the country), shows the latter to be relatively more sensitive to global factors and contagion.     

Exchange‐rate Misalignments in Duopoly: The Case of Airbus and Boeing

We examine the effect of exchange‐rate misalignments on competition in the market for large commercial aircraft. This market is a duopoly where players compete in dollar‐denominated prices while one of them, Airbus, incurs a large fraction of its costs in euro. We estimate price elasticities for big aircraft, and construct a simulation model to investigate how companies adjust their prices to deal with the effects of a temporary misalignment and how this affects profit margins and volumes. We conclude that, due to the duopolistic nature of the aircraft market, Airbus will pass only a small part of the exchange‐rate fluctuations on to customers. Moreover, due to features specific to the aircraft industry, such as customer switching costs and learning‐by‐doing, even a temporary departure of the exchange rate from its long‐run equilibrium level may have permanent effects on the industry.     

Zero‐interest Rate Policy and Unintended Consequences in Emerging Markets

Since 2009, central banks in the major advanced economies have held interest rates at very low levels to stabilise financial markets and support the recovery of their economies. This paper outlines the unintended consequences of the prolonged period of very low world funding interest rates in emerging markets. The paper is informed by a Mises–Hayek‐BIS view on credit booms and Mises' law of unintended consequences. Consistent with the presented credit boom view, I provide evidence that the very low world funding interest rates are associated with a rise in volatile capital flows and asset market bubbles in fast‐growing emerging markets. In line with Mises' law, I further show that these unintended consequences give rise to a new wave of interventionism as policymakers in emerging markets increasingly reintroduce financially repressive measures to isolate the economies from foreign capital inflows.     

What drives portfolio capital inflows into emerging market economies? The role of the Fed's and ECB's balance sheet policies

We provide an empirical investigation of the spillovers from the balance sheet policies conducted by the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) and the European Central Bank (the ECB) to gross portfolio capital flows to emerging market economies (EMEs). The analysis is based upon a panel dataset covering 28 EMEs throughout the period of 2009–2019. Our results show that balance sheet expansion by the Fed translates into higher portfolio capital inflows into EMEs. By contrast, portfolio capital flows to EMEs, including to European ones, do not seem to react to changes in the balance sheet conducted by the ECB.     

Emerging market corporate bond yields and monetary policy

I examine spillover of monetary policy on corporate bond yields. Emerging market corporate bond yields are positively associated with the federal funds rate. However, this positive relation is transmitted through the domestic policy rate. If domestic policy rates are held constant, the spillover of US monetary policy on corporate bond yields diminishes. This suggests that domestic policymakers face a tradeoff: if they leave their policy rate unchanged when the Fed hikes, this may have benign consequences for corporate bond yields. However, a higher US policy rate may lead to exchange rate depreciation for emerging market currencies and thus elevated debt burdens for their US dollar debtors. Alternatively, if the Fed hikes and policymakers follow suit, funding conditions for corporates worsen through higher yields.     

SME lending and banking system stability: Some mechanisms at work

This paper sheds light on the effects of SME lending on banking system stability. Using a dataset of 32 economies during 2007–15, we find that higher growth in SME lending is associated with greater banking system stability, as measured by greater distance to default, but only in emerging market economies (EMEs). In EMEs, financial development tends to be lower and information asymmetries higher so that profitable projects may remain unfinanced.     

Identifying risks in emerging market sovereign and corporate bond spreads

This paper investigates the systematic risk factors driving emerging market (EM) credit risk by jointly modeling sovereign and corporate credit spreads at a global level. We use a multi-regional Bayesian panel VAR model, with time-varying betas and multivariate stochastic volatility. This model allows us to decompose credit spreads and build indicators of EM risks. A key result is that indices of EM sovereign and corporate credit spreads differ because of their specific reactions to global risks (risk aversion, liquidity and US corporate risk). For example, following Lehman's default, EM sovereign spreads ‘decoupled’ from the US corporate market, whereas EM corporates ‘recoupled.’     

Is the US Dollar a Suitable Anchor for the Newly Proposed GCC Currency?

Responses of inflation and non‐oil output growth from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to monetary policy shocks from the United States (US) were estimated to determine whether there is evidence to support the US dollar as the anchor for the proposed unified currency. A structural vector autoregression identified with short‐run restrictions was employed for each country with Fed funds rate as the US monetary policy instrument, non‐oil output growth and inflation. The main results suggest that for inflation, the GCC countries show synchronised responses to monetary policy shocks from the US which are similar to inflation in the US, and for non‐oil output growth, there is no clear indication that US monetary policy can be as effective for the GCC countries as it is domestically. Consequently, importing US monetary policy via a dollar peg may guarantee only stable inflation for the GCC countries – not necessarily stable non‐oil output growth. If the non‐oil output response is made conscientiously – and there are concerns over the dollar’s ability to perform its role as a store of value – a basket peg with both the US dollar and the euro may be a sound alternative as confirmed by the variance decomposition analysis of our augmented SVAR with a proxy for the European short‐term interest rate.     

Corporate social responsibility in emerging market economies: Determinants,consequences, and future research directions

The last two decades have witnessed a growing interest in corporate social responsibility (CSR) worldwide by corporations, investors, policy makers, and researchers across different disciplines. This paper is part of a Special Issue devoted to CSR practices of firms in emerging market economies (EMEs). It complements prior research focusing mainly on developed countries. We begin with an assessment of CSR practices in EMEs, and examine their determinants and performance implications. We then review key findings in the empirical CSR literature, including studies published in the Emerging Markets Review Special Issue. We conclude by describing pertinent avenues for future research.     

银行利润对经济增长影响的实证分析——基于中美两国数据的对比

随着中国利率市场化改革的深化,银行拥有更多的经营自主权,但银行在信贷市场中所处的垄断地位却没有随着利率市场化改革而相应改变。运用VECM模型对中国12家上市银行及同时期美国商业银行的利润增长对经济发展的影响进行了实证研究,结果表明美国的银行利润增长显著促进了经济发展。相比之下,中国银行利润增长对经济发展的长期影响并不显著,而四大国有银行利润增长对经济发展有显著的阻碍作用,非国有银行利润增长则对经济发展有显著的促进作用。四大国有银行在信贷市场中的垄断地位导致其对经济发展产生阻碍,这意味着中国利率市场化改革及资本市场改革仍不彻底。因此,应鼓励非国有股份制银行发展,并进一步深化利率市场化改革及资本市场改革。     

Internationalization and innovation performance of emerging market enterprises: The role of host-country institutional development

We examine how host-country institutional development influences innovation performance of internationalized emerging market enterprises (EMEs). Our panel-data analysis of Chinese EMEs shows that although host-country institutional development on average enhances innovation performance of the parent, such effects are more pronounced for EMEs with strong absorptive capacity and for those diversifying into a larger number of countries. Interestingly, EMEs with a higher level of state ownership gain more when entering countries with a lower level of institutional development. Our findings offer insights regarding how latecomer EMEs should configure their portfolio of subsidiaries in order to enhance innovation performance of their parent.     

Japan's Negative Risk Premium in Interest Rates: The Liquidity Trap and the Fall in Bank Lending

Japan's interest rates have been compressed toward zero because of pressure coming through the foreign exchanges. Twenty years of current‐account surpluses have led to a huge buildup of claims – mainly dollars – on foreigners. Because of ongoing fluctuations in the yen/dollar exchange rate, Japanese financial institutions will only willingly hold these dollar claims if the nominal yield on them is substantially higher than on yen assets. In the 1990s to 2002 as US interest rates have come down, portfolio equilibrium has been sustained only when nominal interest rates on yen assets have been forced toward zero. One consequence is the now infamous liquidity trap for Japanese monetary policy. A second consequence is the erosion of the normal profit margins of Japan's commercial banks, leading to a slump in new bank credit and an inability to grow out of the overhang of old bad loans.     

Credit cycle dependent spread determinants in emerging sovereign debt markets

We address credit cycle dependent sovereign credit risk determinants. In our model, the spread determinants' magnitude is conditional on an unobservable endogenous sovereign credit cycle as represented by the underlying state of a Markov regime switching process. Our explanatory variables are motivated in the tradition of structural credit risk models and include changes in asset prices, interest rates, implied market volatility, gold price changes and foreign exchange rates. We examine daily frequency variations of U.S. dollar denominated Eurobond credit spreads of four major Latin American sovereign bond issuers (Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and Venezuela) with liquid bond markets during March 2000 to June 2011. We find that spread determinants are statistically significant and consistent with theory, while their magnitude remarkably varies with the state of the credit cycle. Crisis states are characterized by high spread change uncertainty and high sensitivities with respect to the spread change determinants. We further document that not only changes of local currencies, but also changes of the Euro with respect to the U.S. dollar are significant spread drivers and argue that this is consistent with the sovereigns' ability to pay.     

Mauritius Financial System Stress Index: Estimating the Costs of the Subprime Crisis

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to develop a FSSI model for the Mauritius based on 11 components which reflect the core characteristics of Mauritius. Findings show that Mauritius had been affected by the crisis with the costs hovering around 3.4 to 5.4%. Latent risks are identified under public debt sustainability, tourist arrivals and earnings, central bank equity, quality of balance of payments sustainability, trade finance, net foreign investments on the stock market and future GDP growth paths in Europe and USA. Evidence is found of an impotent interest rate channel, a robust credit channel and a vibrant exchange rate channel. Banks’ profitability structure is found to be crisis-immune following a maintained interest rate spread at 7% despite a decline in the TED spread. The authorities should concentrate on tourism and credit channels while curtailing the interest rate spread to reinvigorate the interest rate transmission channel.     

Consumer Knowledge of the Costs of Open-end Credit

A 1977 mail survey of 1,330 Minnesota households found that few respondents had knowledge of the annual percentage rate (APR) of interest on open-end credit accounts or knowledge of the actual dollar finance charge. Knowledge of APR and knowledge of actual dollar costs were, however, found to be closely associated with more realistic assessments of “reasonable” credit costs. Economic theory predicts that those who misperceive credit costs will not use an optimum amount of credit given their preferences and resources, 2nd will, therefore, incur some economic loss. This study found that those respondents most likely to have incurred such losses were from households characterized by low levels of income and education.     

中美贸易不平衡的均衡、错位及其矫正的实证研究

利用1995-2010年1季度数据,研究中美贸易不平衡的均衡水平、错位程度及其矫正机制。研究发现:长期看,美国经济增长1%、中国经济增长1%、人民币对美元实际汇率贬值1%,导致中国对美贸易顺差分别增加4.46%、0.81%、0.93%;2005年我国的汇率制度改革导致我国对美贸易顺差小幅度增加。中美贸易收支错位的自我修正机制存在,自我修正功能较强。短期看,人民币对美元实际汇率升值、我国货币供给减少、美国政府支出增加、人民币对美元名义汇率贬值,导致我国对美贸易顺差增加。中美贸易不平衡的错位是经常性的,2009-2010年1季度,中美贸易不平衡低于均衡水平。政策含义是:积极转变我国的经济增长方式;长期坚持人民币对美元适度升值;策略性地应对来自美国的人民币升值压力。     

Market Discipline of Canadian Banks' Letters of Credit Activities: An Empirical Examination

While the motivation and riskiness of US off-balance sheet banking activities have been studied both theoretically and empirically, no such study has been found dealing with Canadian off-balance sheet banking activities, although such activities are numerically huge, and growing larger each year. This article provides support for a market discipline hypothesis of Canadian bank letters of credit activities by employing several market measures of risk from one-factor and multi-factor models, and an implied asset volatility from the option-pricing model. Furthermore, it examines both price and quantity response of off-balance sheet activities in the Canadian banking market by employing a tobit analysis to assess the robustness of our conclusions about market discipline. The results indicate that various market measures of risk and letters of credit are negatively related. Moreover, banks with greater portfolio risk measured in terms of equity and asset risk, high leverage and interest rate risk are less likely to issue letters of credit.     

Which is the safe haven for emerging stock markets,gold or the US dollar?

This paper examines whether gold or the US dollar is a safe haven for emerging stocks. By calculating the low-high tail dependence between markets via copulas and the downside risk gains of portfolios, we find that both gold and the US dollar can serve as a safe haven for emerging stocks; that the US dollar is better than gold in most cases, while its superiority in hedging infinitely extreme risks is weakened in the subsample of global financial crisis and the out-of-sample; and that the downside risk gains offered by the US dollar for China and Thailand are very attractive.     

The US stock market and the international value of the US dollar

We investigate the spillover effect of the US equity market on the value of the dollar and therefore on the return and volatility of US equity investments for the international investor. The data are daily observations of the S & P 500 and the US dollar in terms of seven foreign currencies covering the period 1971–2002. Using Geweke measures of feedback, we find a high percentage of contemporaneous association between daily movements in the S & P 500 index and changes in the value of the dollar. A consistently positive relationship between the S & P 500 and the dollar is found for the period 1992–2002, creating a compounding effect for the foreign investor in US equities. However, investment by foreigners in US equities did not result in consistently higher returns but in higher volatility compared to their US counterparts for the period 1971–2002.