中美贸易摩擦对中国参与区域价值链的重构效应

基于贸易增加值视角,以《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(RCEP)为对象,研究中美贸易摩擦对中国参与区域价值链的重构效应。首先运用沃姆斯利(Walmsley)动态递归方法更新全球贸易分析模型的基准数据库,然后运用全球贸易分析模型与库普曼(Koopman)等的贸易增加值分解模型的链接方法,分解中美加征关税对全球价值链和区域价值链的影响,从区域价值链视角出发评估贸易摩擦的经济效应。结果发现:从国家层面看,贸易摩擦对中国参与全球价值链负面影响颇为严重,却深化了中国参与区域价值链的程度,主要归因于直接贸易规模性转移与间接产业分工格局调整两个方面;从产业层面看,贸易摩擦对中国不同行业部门参与区域价值链的影响存在较强的异质性。总体而言,对不同行业的区域价值链均呈现促进效应,但电子产业增长相对较高,其次是汽车业、纺织业,原因在于不同行业参与全球价值链的程度截然不同。     

Does vertical specialisation increase productivity?

This paper investigates the impact of global value chain (GVC) participation on productivity. It uses data on trade in value‐added from the World Input‐Output Database. The results based on a panel estimation covering 13 sectors in 40 countries over 15 years suggest that participation in GVCs is a significant driver of labour productivity. Backward participation in GVCs, that is, the use of imported inputs to produce for exports, emerges as particularly important. An increase by 10% in the level of GVC participation increased average productivity by close to 1.6%.     

Do we need deeper trade agreements for GVCs or just a BIT?

The paper investigates two policies geared towards stimulating and shaping global value chains (GVCs), namely deep regional trade agreements (DRTAs) and bilateral investment treaties (BITs). In an augmented gravity model, we test the impact of both policies on a variety of trade in value added indicators. We find that both policies are likely to increase GVC trade, although their transmission channels differ. While backward linkages are stimulated through both BITs and DRTAs, forward linkages respond only to DRTAs. The estimates suggest that negotiating a DRTA with investment provisions has a higher impact on trade in value added than signing a shallow RTA and a separate BIT.     

Trade openness,income levels,and economic growth: The case of developing countries, 1970–2009

This paper attempts to investigate the extent to which trade openness has had an impact on the levels of income and rates of growth in a sample of 115 developing countries for the period 1970–2009. Additionally, to assess whether there is an income level threshold for a country to benefit from international trade, the sample is broken down into three mutually exclusive groups of countries: low-income, lower middle-income, and upper middle-income countries. The main novelty of the paper lies on the use, on the one hand, of a new and better trade openness measure and, on the other hand, of non-stationary heterogeneous panel cointegration techniques to cope with the problem of cross-sectional dependence. The results show a positive bi-directional relationship between trade openness and income level in the long run, thus suggesting that trade openness is both a cause and a consequence of the level of income. The results for the short run, that is, the link between openness growth and economic growth, go in the same direction.     

人工智能技术变革对国际贸易的影响

人工智能技术的快速发展正催生第四次工业革命,可能引发全球价值链深度重构和世界经贸格局重大变革。世界主要经济强国将发展人工智能技术作为争夺新一轮产业竞争优势的重要战略抓手。本文基于全球价值链视角研究人工智能技术变革对国际贸易的影响,我们发现人工智能技术变革可能推动国际贸易规模扩大,提升服务贸易份额,并促进国际贸易交易模式平台化、小宗化,可为中小企业创造更多参与国际贸易的机会。然而,人工智能技术变革也可能通过降低企业劳动力需求从而对我国等发展中国家的出口拉动型增长模式造成严重的潜在威胁。为应对人工智能技术变革,我国应部署并强化对人工智能产业发展的政策支持,加快培育制造业国际竞争新优势,大力推动先进制造业与现代生产性服务业深度融合发展,全面促进"中国制造"攀升全球价值链中高端。     

全球价值链理论研究述评

20世纪80年代以来,伴随经济全球化的发展,以前完全由一家企业单独生产的产品,现在可能被切割成许多不同的价值环节,由遍布全球、成千上万家企业同时协作生产。基于价值环节在企业之间分割、组合及其在全球布局的现象,理论研究者提出了全球价值链的概念和相关理论,涌现了大量相关文献,本文试图对这些研究的演化及发展进行归纳、比较和总结,对其主要结论进行评述。     

国际服务贸易对浙江省经济增长的贡献分析

近年来,国际服务贸易在全球经济结构转化大趋势下得以迅猛发展,相对而言,浙江省国际服务贸易发展相对滞后。采用浙江省1995年～2010年国际服务贸易和GDP的数据建立模型,分析结果发现浙江省国际服务贸易进口和出口与GDP之间存在正向相关性,国际服务贸易进口对国民经济增长的贡献要比出口大,对经济增长的拉动作用更明显。     

广东省对外贸易与经济增长关系的实证分析

文章采用现代计量经济学的分析方法--协整分析和格兰杰因果关系检验,对广东省改革开放以来对外贸易与经济增长的相互关系进行实证分析,结论表明:广东省对外贸易与经济增长之间存在着相互促进的关系,其中,广东省GDP增长对进、出口增加的促进作用大于进、出口增加对GDP增长的促进作用.     

全球价值链、贸易增长“失速”与中国对策

通过对比G20经济体的货物出口增速与其GDP增速之间的差距,本文发现2012年后世界主要经济体货物出口增速大多低于其GDP增速,此轮出口增长\"失速\"并非是中国特例,而是全球性现象。本文从全球价值链分工的视角分析了造成此轮全球性出口增长\"失速\"的主要原因,发现近年来全球价值链分工模式出现的\"天花板\"现象、发展中经济体价值链分工位置升级和国内价值链的延伸以及发达经济体国内价值链的收缩都会导致世界贸易规模萎缩。本文认为,以\"一带一路\"战略为平台扩张全球价值链分工网络的外部空间和以自贸区战略为依托推进中国对外开放水平由\"边境上\"向\"边境内\"深化,是中国应对出口增速下降可能的对策思路。     

全球价值链下的中国与东盟经贸关系

在新的国际产业分工格局下,中国和东盟是全球价值链和生产网络的重要节点。与之相应,中国与东盟的经贸关系也以全球价值链为基础,表现为中间产品占双边贸易的半壁江山。当前,全球价值链面临着调整与重组,我国应有计划地逐步在中国—东盟区域构建与跨国公司主导的全球价值链平行的、以中国企业为主导的区域产业链或供应链,从而构建新型的中国—东盟经贸关系的微观基础。     

Global value chains and inward foreign direct investment in the 2000s

In this paper, we make use of recent data published by the World Input‐Output Database to: (i) provide evidence on trade in value added of the major Organization for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD) member countries and major emerging economies (designated by OE country group), namely by measuring the degree of participation in global value chains (GVCs) at the country and sectoral levels; and (ii) estimate whether the GVC participation of OE countries has positively influenced foreign direct investment (FDI) inward stocks in the 2000s. The pooled regression model estimated shows that the country′s degree of GVC participation has contributed positively for bilateral FDI inward stocks, after controlling for other possible FDI determinants.     

Trade policy,export expansion,human capital and growth

This paper empirically investigates the impact of trade policy on export expansion and on GDP growth in developing countries while controlling for the human capital stock and the initial level of development. By using a simultaneous system estimation we unite the approach found in the export expansion and growth literature with the approach found in papers that estimate the effect of trade policy on growth, while also making several improvements in the estimation of the underlying relationships. The results obtained from our estimation are more credible because of these improvements and therefore have stronger policy implications. We find that outward-oriented trade policies substantially and significantly impact growth in developing countries not only by directly enhancing exports but also through a feedback (or multiplier) effect.     

Does servicification of manufacturing increase the GVC activities of firms? Case of India

Does greater use of services’ inputs in manufacturing increase the global value chain (GVC) activities of the firms? In this study, we analyse the effects of servicification on the GVC activities of manufacturing firms in India. Using panel data of 4608 Indian manufacturing firms from 2001 to 2018, we examine the effects of servicification of manufacturing firms on their decision to participate in GVCs. The study examines the overall service inputs in manufacturing activities and its impact on GVC activities of firms. The results indicate that servicification of manufacturing tends to have a positive impact on GVC activities of firms. We also observe positive impact on Indian small and medium enterprises (SMEs) to participate in the GVC through the servicification of manufacturing. Further, the results also indicate the differential impact of servicification between high- and low-technology industries.     

中美博弈对全球价值链的影响机理与重构效应

当前,虽然中美经贸摩擦暂时得到缓和,但中美博弈冲突并未在根本上得到解决,其对全球价值链的影响具有长期性。从出口层面看,贸易政策不确定性加剧,直接影响着企业的生产布局和出口选择,进而引发贸易转移效应;从进口层面看,两国间的关税措施抬高了进口成本,必将引发进口国企业和消费者的替代效应。未来国际经贸秩序的深度调整、大国间冲突与博弈的不断演化、国家间经贸关系不确定性加剧等因素,将进一步加速全球价值链的重构进程。具体表现为:全球生产链条缩短,区域性经贸合作加强;研发创新本土化、产业回流等因素将提升国家价值链的战略地位;全球价值链竞争的核心围绕高技术产业展开,中美博弈将表现为中美两种发展模式的对抗。     

香港对外贸易与经济增长和产业结构升级——“一国两制”和改革开放的成功结合与实践

对香港1987～2007年时间序列数据单位根检验的基础上,验证对外贸易、经济增长与产业结构三者之间的Granger因果关系.研究发现,香港包括港产品出口、转口和进口在内的对外贸易与经济增长之间存在双向Granger因果关系;同时经济增长与产业结构之间也存在双向因果关系.通过对香港的研究进一步发现,香港地区对外贸易与经济增长,经济增长与产业结构之间能互为因果形成较好的经济运行状态,很大程度上得益于"一国两制"在香港的成功实践与内地改革开放的成功结合.     

中国服装产业出口贸易市场势力研究——以美国市场为例

文章以棉制T恤衫为例,运用剩余需求弹性模型,测度了我国服装产业在美国市场上的国际市场势力,结果表明,我国服装产业国际市场势力总体偏低,并受到墨西哥、印度等主要竞争对手的威胁。文章认为传统的成本优势受不再突出、不利的价值链环节以及过度的价格竞争行为是导致我国服装产业国际市场势力缺失的主要原因。要解决这些问题应从提高劳动力素质、促进产业转移、提高自主创新能力等方面着手。