Trade Liberalization and Industrial Restructuring: The Role of Cross-Border Mergers and Acquisitions

This paper analyzes industry adjustments to trade liberalization. It introduces cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&A) as an alternative mode of industrial restructuring to firms' exit. In a two-country Cournot model, we examine the responses of domestic and foreign firms endowed with different technologies for different stages of trade openness. It is found that the less efficient firm loses market shares in its home market at the beginning of trade liberalization. Only for a more advanced level of liberalization, does it take advantage of a larger access to foreign demand. Trade liberalization may therefore harm its profits too strongly, forcing it to leave the market. However, although its incentives decrease with trade liberalization, the high-technology firm may be willing to take it over for low organizational and technological costs of firms' integration. In addition, it may buy it out even if the less efficient firm manages to stay. Then, trade liberalization affects M&A incentives depending on the technological gap. For low and high (medium) gap, there is an inverted U- (W-) shaped relation between trade costs and incentives to merge. Moreover, although technology transfer is assumed to be complete, M&A may lead to a reduction in consumers' welfare. Firms may capture some pro-competitive gains from economic openness. Lastly, an empirical analysis based on a data set of OECD members' multinationals gives some support to these theoretical predictions.     

Multilateral Trade Liberalisation and Foreign Direct Investment Inflows

This paper investigates two questions: how does multilateral trade liberalisation affect inward foreign direct investment, and does this impact (if any) depend on the domestic trade policy? The analysis uses a panel data set comprising 171 countries spanning the period 1995–2012. Results indicate that multilateral trade policy liberalisation is conducive to higher FDI inflows in host countries. Furthermore, our evidence suggests that domestic trade policy almost always positively drives inward FDI in a context of multilateral trade policy liberalisation. Countries which initially have the most restrictive trade policy regimes appear to be the greatest beneficiaries of FDI inflows when they liberalise their trade policy in the context of multilateral trade liberalisation.     

外商直接投资与中国对外贸易间关系的实证研究

在中国的对外经济活动中,东亚的新兴工业化国家和美国都是中国的重要伙伴。文章把新加坡和泰国作为新兴工业化国家的代表与高度发达的美国相对应,采用协整分析和误差修正模型研究了中国对这些国家的贸易与其在华直接投资两者间的关系。研究结果显示,这种关系在两类不同国家间存在较大差异,长期以来,美商在华直接投资与我国对美出口之间具有双向格兰杰因果关系,而另外两个国家则只具有单向的格兰杰因果关系。     

外商投资和贸易自由化的碳排放效应分析

本文选取我国30个省2000～2008年的面板数据,考察了外商直接投资以及外贸进出口量对我国碳排放的影响.研究结果表明,对全国大部分省市自治区而言,当期的外商直接投资和出口贸易对碳环境影响呈恶化作用,而滞后项的碳排放效应呈现清洁作用;当期的进口贸易对低碳经济的发展有促进作用,但滞后期抑制了低碳经济的有效进行.进一步对碳排放模型进行分区域分析后发现,我国碳排放的区域性差异较为明显,且东部地区的正动态性最大而中部的正动态性最小.文章最后分析产生这些结果的原因并提出了相应对策.     

贸易自由化与中国企业进口中间品质量升级

进口高质量中间品是发展中国家实现技术追赶的重要途径;贸易自由化会降低进口高质量中间产品的贸易成本和相对价格,促进企业进口中间品质量升级。基于此,本文利用细分关税数据、海关数据和工业企业数据,将加工贸易作为控制组、一般贸易作为处理组,采用倍差法经验分析贸易自由化对中国企业进口中间品质量的影响。结论发现：伴随关税下降,中国企业进口中间品质量整体增长,且一般贸易组增长速度远快于加工贸易组。同加工贸易相比,关税下降1%一般贸易进口中间品质量增长高出0.06%~3.74%。这一作用在持续进口企业中,在基础设施完善、市场化水平高、经济集聚程度高的地区更明显。上述结论通过了同趋势假设、内生性等一系列稳健性检验。     

Capturing the Implications of Services Trade Liberalization

This paper evaluates the impact of service sector trade liberalization on the world economy by a ten-region, eleven-sector CGE model with import embodied technology transfer from developed countries to developing countries. Simulation results show that service sector trade liberalization not only directly affects world service production and trade, but also has significant implications for other sectors in the economy. The major channel of the impact is through inter-industry input-output relations and TFP growth induced from services imported by developing countries from developed countries, which may be embodied with new information and advanced technology.     

Trade Liberalization and Poverty in Ecuador: A CGE Macro-Microsimulation Analysis

Cross-country analysis of the aggregate growth-poverty link is likely to miss important country-specific detail and possible offsetting forces in the underlying labour market adjustment process. This paper combines a CGE model analysis with a microsimulations approach to analyse the effects of trade liberalization on poverty and income distribution in Ecuador. The CGE model enables us to disentangle the general equilibrium effects of various trade policy scenarios on sector output, employment, factor incomes and household consumption. However, as is typical of CGE models, this analysis only provides distribution results for fairly aggregated groups of workers and a reduced number of representative households. The microsimulations approach adds the full distribution to the analysis and allows simulation of the effects of trade reform on the job status and remuneration of individual workers and thereby on household income distribution and poverty. The macro- microsimulation results indicate that the trade opening in Ecuador induced mild aggregate welfare gains, but rising income inequality due to rising wage differentials between skilled and unskilled workers implies virtually no poverty-reducing effect from trade liberalization.     

中印贸易汇率传递效应与影响因素研究

文章依据2007-2016年中印贸易数据,基于向量自回归Wald-Granger外生性检验、VECM模型引入供求、政策、竞争国价格、边际成本分析汇率传递效应,并对进出口双边汇率与多边汇率的贸易传递效应进行对照研究。结果表明:多边汇率下进出口历史价格对当期价格影响长期达到80%以上,基于多边汇率参考历史价格对预测贸易价格非常有价值;双边与多边汇率传递效应均为不完全传递,我国进口商依宏观形势选择合作地厂商使得进口传递效应小于出口;多边汇率对出口价格的传递率更高,印度进口商对中国总体贸易形势变动更敏感,期望减少因汇率变动导致的进口成本损失;我国为价格主动者,印度为价格追随者,但中国打开印度市场策略较为激进。     

External Liberalization and Foreign Presence: Cross-Industry Evidence from Poland and Hungary

External liberalization—the relaxation of restrictions on cross-border trade and inbound direct investment—has played an important role in the programs of economic transition in central Europe. While liberalization is widely heralded, there has been little empirical analysis of the links between liberalization and industry structure. This analysis examines changes in foreign presence following external liberalization in Poland and Hungary. I show that the presence of proprietary and intangible assets explains much of the cross-industry variation in patterns of foreign presence and, for a given level of foreign presence, whether this will occur via trade or inbound direct investment.     

External Liberalization and Foreign Presence: Cross-Industry Evidence From Poland and Hungary

External liberalization—the relaxation of restrictions on cross-border trade and inbound direct investment—has played an important role in the programs of economic transition in central Europe. While liberalization is widely heralded, there has been little empirical analysis of the links between liberalization and industry structure. This analysis examines changes in foreign presence following external liberalization in Poland and Hungary. I show that the presence of proprietary and intangible assets explains much of the cross-industry variation in patterns of foreign presence and, for a given level of foreign presence, whether this will occur via trade or inbound direct investment.     

利用外资与生产性服务业增长:国内金融发展的作用

国内金融发展可以放大外资在促进生产性服务业的资本积累和形成中的作用,而且也影响了外资对生产性服务企业技术创新能力的作用。金融发展也包括金融开放,金融开放对于属于生产性服务业的金融业的发展带来了竞争效率的提高,同时金融开放也意味者从外部引进了金融资源,提高了融资水平。总之,金融发展可以加强外资对生产性服务业增长中的作用。利用中国1985-2009年有关年度数据进行经验实证分析表明外资对中国生产性服务业增长具有很大影响,金融发展也显著影响了外资对生产性服务业增长中的作用。     

市场准入交换与发展中国家的金融服务贸易自由化

本文建立了一个金融服务贸易保护的政治经济模型，模型中明确将未来市场准入交换的可能性作为金融服务贸易政策选择的一个重要决定因素。研究表明，和商品贸易一样，服务贸易政策选择也在很大程度上受到利益分配的影响。政府的金融自由化决策需要在国内银行的利益与社会的福利之间进行权衡。此外，在存在多部门谈判的情况下，保留对金融服务贸易自由化的承诺可以作为今后市场准入交换谈判中讨价还价的筹码。本文的结论是，对发达国家来讲，要想得到发展中国家在金融服务贸易方面进一步自由化的承诺，必须减少其自身在农业、纺织品及其他涉及发展中国家出口利益方面的市场保护。     

粤港服务贸易自由化的难点及对策研究

为推动落实国家"十二五"规划有关内地对香港基本实现服务贸易自由化的目标,广东省十一届三次全会审议通过了《中共广东省委贯彻落实〈中共中央关于全面深化改革若干重大问题的决定〉的意见》,明确提出了要在2014年底率先基本实现粤港服务贸易自由化。从现状看,粤港服务贸易自由化进展顺利,成绩斐然。但由于国家政策、社会制度、服务贸易发展水平等方面的影响,粤港服务贸易自由化还存在较多的难点。争取国家政策支持,加强制度设计,加快重点合作区建设,是推进粤港服务贸易自由化的关键。     

Foreign Direct Investment in China: Determinants and Effects

This paper attempts to assess the determinants of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in China and its effects on the whole economy. After presenting the main theoretical contributions and the previous works done about China’s inward-FDI, an empirical study has been implemented extending the previous ones with a different data set (more recent) and with different methodologies. The traditional determinants of FDI seem to be relevant for China: domestic market size, cost advantages and openness to the rest of the world. Concerning the consequences of FDI on the Chinese economy, our empirical evidence supports the view that FDI affects China’s growth through the diffusion of ideas. Through the introduction of new ideas, multinational firms develop technical progress and hence long-run economic growth. The transmission of ideas seems to have had a positive effect on the Chinese growth. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

吉林省民营外贸企业对外贸易与经济增长的相关性的实证分析

我国政府从1999年开始,先后多次放开了民营企业对外贸易方面的限制,为民营企业创造了更为透明和公正的经营空间。吉林省各级地方政府已经开始高度重视民营企业的发展。吉林省民营企业的进出口贸易与经济增长之间有着非常密切的关系。通过使用协整分析、格兰杰因果检验等计量经济学分析方法对吉林省2004年一季度至2008年第三季度数据进行检验,可以证明吉林省民营企业对外贸易与经济增长之间存在协整关系,格兰杰因果检验也表明吉林省民营企业进出口与经济增长之间存在因果关系。因此,高度重视吉林省民营企业的发展,对推动吉林省经济振兴具有十分重要的指导作用。     

The Effects of Foreign Direct Investment Colocation: Differences Between Manufacturing and Service Firms

Colocation may result in positive performance effects because of agglomeration benefits or in negative outcomes because of fiercer competition. Using the notions of industrial organization economics, this study offers a comprehensive industry‐specific analysis on the performance effects of international colocation. We predict that bigger firms will benefit more from colocation of foreign firms in a host country. Considering industry and home country peers, the analysis suggests that positive effects dominate for manufacturing firms whereas service firms are negatively affected. However, these effects are mitigated by a firm's size in a location. A large‐scale empirical analysis on firm‐level data supports the hypotheses. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

绿色贸易壁垒对我国对外贸易的影响及对策研究

近年来,绿色贸易壁垒作为一种新型的非关税贸易壁垒措施,被发达国家作为贸易保护工具越来越广泛地运用。作为发展中国家,它严重影响着我国的对外贸易。只有正确认识绿色贸易壁垒及其对我国的影响,才能采取切实有力的措施,增强跨越绿色壁垒的能力。