FDI对我国出口贸易的影响分析

改革开放以来,随着我国利用FD(IForeign Direct Investment,外商直接投资)的规模不断扩大,我国的对外贸易规模和对外贸易结构得到了极大地改善。本文着重从规模和结构两方面分析外国对华直接投资的发展对我国出口贸易产生的影响。从有关分析可知,就出口量而言,外资在我国出口中的作用不可低估,但就出口结构而言,外资促进我国比较优势变革的作用则相对有限。这种现象的产生与外商投资的结构有关,更与我国的投资环境、外贸与外资政策体制的矛盾有关。我国急需调整引进外资的目标和政策,增加贸易体制的透明度,从而进一步优化产业结构,提高产业档次,改善产品质量,增加产品的国际竞争力,保持我国对外贸易持续、健康、快速发展,把我国塑造成贸易强国。     

中国企业对外直接投资发展研究

对外直接投资是为海外的子公司供应生产要素,因此能帮助投资国避开贸易保护主义促进出口贸易的发展。本文首先对对外直接投资与出口贸易的关系进行了实证分析,然后介绍了中国企业对外直接投资现状和存在的问题,并针对存在的问题提出了一些对策和建议。     

我国环境规制对不同来源国FDI的影响

利用对中国直接投资排名前33位国家和地区的面板数据,对环境规制等因素与不同来源国FDI流入的关系进行研究,结果显示,我国环境规制虽然在一定程度上阻碍了来自发展中国家的FDI,但对发达国家的FDI并未产生影响.由于我国FDI大部分来自发达国家,因此我国环境规制对FDI流入的影响是有限的.提高我国的环境规制水平不但不会抑制FDI企业的进入,反而可以提高高新技术企业的竞争优势,发挥这些企业的技术扩散、外溢效应,更好地实现招商引资的战略目的.     

The relationship between trade,FDI and economic growth in Tunisia: An application of the autoregressive distributed lag model

The relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI), trade openness and economic growth in host countries remains one of the most important issues in the economic literature and met with renewed interest in recent years mainly for countries suffering from unemployment problems and lack of technological progress. This paper examines this issue for Tunisia by applying the bounds testing (ARDL) approach to cointegration for the period from 1970 to 2008. The bounds tests suggest that the variables of interest are bound together in the long run when foreign direct investment is the dependent variable. The associated equilibrium correction is also significant, confirming the existence of a long-run relationship. The results also indicate that there is no significant Granger causality from FDI to economic growth, from economic growth to FDI, from trade to economic growth and from economic growth to trade in the short run. Even though there is a widespread belief that FDI can generate positive spillover externalities for the host country, our empirical results fail to confirm this belief for the case of Tunisia. They go against the generally accepted idea considering the positive impact of FDI on economic growth to be automatic. The results found for Tunisia can be generalized and compared to other developing countries which share a common experience in attracting FDI and trade liberalization.     

论国际贸易之环境问题对我国贸易政策的影响

在纷繁复杂的国际形势下,各国的对外贸易政策都会对国际贸易市场产生深远的影响。在国际贸易活动中,环境因素发挥着越来越重要的作用,这必须引起我们的足够重视。本文就从国际贸易市场中的环境保护现状入手,分析我国在进出口贸易中存在的环境问题进而提出促进可持续发展的策略。     

FDI与区域经济增长——基于西安高新技术产业开发区数据的计量检验

论文以西安高新技术产业开发区实际外商直接投资与其经济增长的关系为对象,分别考察了实际外商直接投资对营业收入、出口创汇和国内固定资产投资等主要宏观变量增长的影响.在此基础上,对外商直接投资与西安高新技术产业开发区的主要宏观数据进行格兰杰因果性检验.最后提出扩大利用外资规模,提高利用外资水平,促进经济增长的具体建议.     

FDI and trade—Two-way linkages?

We investigate the intertemporal linkages between foreign direct investment and disaggregated measures of international trade. We outline a model exemplifying these linkages, describe methods for investigating two-way feedbacks between various categories of trade, and apply them to recent data. We find that the strongest feedback between the sub-accounts is between FDI and manufacturing trade. For the first time, we decompose causality using Geweke's [Geweke, J. (1982). Measurement of linear dependence and feedback between multiple time series. Journal of the American Statistical Association 77(378), 304–313] decomposition method. We find that most of the linear feedback between trade and FDI can be accounted for by Granger-causality from FDI gross flows to trade openness (50%) and from trade to FDI (31%).     

经济转型下的外商直接投资、国内资本与经济增长——基于中国时间序列数据的计量检验与实证分析

经济转型背景下,中国经济持续增长的一个重要原因是引入外商直接投资。本文对1985年-2010年中国外商直接投资、国内投资与经济增长的总量时间序列数据进行了实证分析。结果表明:FDI与国内资本对我国的经济增长的影响显著,都是GDP的格兰杰原因,与经济增长存在长期均衡关系;但FDI对经济增长的影响小于国内资本,并且FDI与国内资本还存在相互挤入效应。     

Efficiency externalities of trade and alternative forms of foreign investment in OECD countries

The literature on the spillover effects of trade and inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI) has concentrated on technological externalities. Little effort has been directed towards identifying their efficiency externalities. This paper measures the efficiency externalities of trade and various forms of foreign investment for a sample of 20 OECD countries between 1982 and 2000 using a stochastic frontier approach. Trade and all foreign investment inflows are found to enhance efficiency, whereas outflows of FDI are found to exacerbate inefficiency. The efficiency externalities from foreign investment are contingent on the absorptive capacity of the host economies. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Foreign inflows and economic growth: An emiprical study of the SAARC region

The study examines and highlights the impact of selected foreign inflows (aid, trade, FDI, debt and remittances) on the economic growth of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries. The existent literature lacks a comprehensive analysis of the SAARC countries as countries like Afghanistan, Bhutan and the Maldives have largely been ignored due to the shorter time periods of available data. The study is empirical in nature and utilizes panel data techniques on macroeconomic data for the period 2008–2015. Foreign aid and foreign direct investment are found to impact economic growth positively. Foreign debt and trade flows are found to adversely affect economic growth. No relationship is established between the flow of remittances and the economic growth of these countries. The obtained results are robust to different proxy variables and the addition of macroeconomic variables. For the first time, the study provides policy implications based on the data of all SAARC countries. The study recommends focusing on increasing the inflows of resources in the form of aid and foreign direct investment (FDI) from the developed world to achieve higher economic growth.     

中国文化产品贸易流量及出口潜力测算——基于引力模型的实证分析

本文以1992²010年间中国与26个国家(地区)的双边文化贸易数据为样本,利用引力模型实证分析了中国文化产品贸易流量的影响因素及出口潜力。研究结果表明:中国的经济规模、进口国的经济规模、人均GDP、贸易开放度以及优惠贸易安排对中国文化产品出口有明显的促进作用;空间距离、文化距离与中国文化产品的出口规模负相关。文化距离的影响远大于空间距离的影响,加强对外文化沟通,克服"文化折扣"现象,对促进中国文化产品的出口至关重要。在26个样本中,中国只与7个国家(地区)的文化贸易存在"贸易过度",与其他19个国家(地区)的文化贸易存在"贸易不足",中国文化产品具有较大的出口潜力,但需针对性地开展文化贸易。     

贸易成本、比较优势与出口结

研究目标：总体贸易成本对一国出口贸易结构的影响。研究方法：测算30个样本国与其所有贸易伙伴国的双边贸易成本和各国的总体贸易成本,并利用行业层面数据构建计量模型,将贸易成本与劳动力和资本等要素禀赋一起,经验地研究总体贸易成本对一国出口结构的影响。研究发现：总体贸易成本可以和资本与劳动力等要素禀赋一样,成为比较优势的来源,影响一国对外出口行业的选择;一国即便不具有资本禀赋的优势,但只要不断降低总体贸易成本,完全可能选择生产并出口高贸易成本密集度和资本密集型行业的商品。研究创新：从比较优势的角度经验研究了总体贸易成本对出口结构的影响。研究价值：为产业结构升级提供了新思路。     

关于我国服装出口亟待自主品牌国际化的研究

一流企业卖品牌,二流企业卖技术,三流的企业卖产品,四流企业卖苦力。我国是服装制造大国,但不是服装创造大国。为了应对国际金融危机,国际贸易贸易摩擦和纠纷、提高国际化经营的效益,必须改变90%靠贴牌生产出口的局面,亟待发展服装自主品牌出口,转变服装出口增长方式。本文通过服装自主品牌识势、品牌蓄势、品牌造势、努力提升打造品牌的执行力,不仅要打造服装自主品牌出口,而且要形成服装自主品牌国际化经营之势,从而实现由OEM向OBM的转变,实现由服装生产大国向服装品牌大国的跨越。     

FDI占中国固定资产投资比重变动的倒U形特征与决定因素实证分析

1979～2008年,FDI进入占中国年度固定资产投资总额比重的变动过程,呈现显著的倒U形变动特征。1979～2000年前后,FDI占中国年度固定资产投资比重显著上升,起促进作用的因素主要是国有企业和集体企业劳动就业人口比重相对下降,税收政策优惠,以及对外贸易开放度提高。2002～2008年,FDI占中国年度固定资产投资比重显著下降,起关键作用的因素主要有中国高等教育入学率提高,以及中国加入WTO后对外贸易壁垒下降。此外,本文还就FDI占中国年度固定资产投资比重变动的决定因素分不同地区进行了实证研究。     

Free Trade Agreements Between Peru,Colombia, and the United States

This article evaluates the process of negotiating and implementing the U.S.-Peru and U.S.-Colombia free trade agreements (FTAs) and analyzes the impact of these agreements on foreign direct investment (FDI) and export diversification in Peru and Colombia. The main finding is that institutional elements in each country uniquely impacted the process of negotiation, implementation, and the outcomes of these FTAs. Colombia benefited from the initial advantage of better institutional capacity and negotiating expertise, while Peru benefited from stronger political leadership and commitment to a bilateral trade agreement with the United States. Both Peru and Colombia have benefited from structured consultation mechanisms with the private sector and non-government agents, continuity in trade policies throughout different political administrations, and strong political commitment to develop the institutional capacity needed to take full advantage of these FTAs. Furthermore, the implementation of these FTAs has coincided with an expansion of non-traditional exports from Peru and Colombia, and an increase in FDI into sectors other than commodities such as oil, natural gas, and minerals.     

中国与其他金砖国家贸易隐含碳研究

本文采用WIOD提供的金砖国家投入产出和直接碳排放数据,通过建立MRIO模型计算1995~2011年中国与其他金砖国家贸易隐含碳排放量,并进一步考察了中国在不同双边贸易中所处地位特征和是否存在碳减排的国际贸易途径。结果表明,中国与不同金砖国家贸易所处地位存在异质性特征,主要表现为中国在中俄贸易中以贸易逆差换取碳减排、中印贸易中以碳排放换取贸易顺差、中巴贸易中隐含碳净出口和贸易逆差共存。中国可通过鼓励相对低碳行业出口,并同时鼓励相对高碳行业进口和金砖国家内部互补性贸易的国际贸易途径促进实现中国碳减排目标。中国应该充分发挥金砖国家合作机制,实现中国与其他金砖国家的"共享式"碳减排。     

Determinants of Export Performance: Evidence from Chinese Industries

This paper empirically investigates the determinants of Chinese export performance using cross-sectional data at the industry level. We find that the export performance of different industries is significantly influenced by labour costs, foreign direct investment (FDI) and firm size, and thus open to a variety of explanations offered by traditional and new trade theories. These findings indicate that Chinese industrial sectors have realised their comparative advantages, but point to the need for the industries to upgrade their export structure in order to sustain growth. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

中国加快推进“走出去”战略的必要性及措施

随着中国经济的发展,我们在引进外资的同时也开始鼓励企业"走出去"进行对外直接投资(FDI)。尤其是2008年的金融危机爆发后,世界经济一直处于不景气状态,这就导致了贸易保护主义的抬头。各国的贸易壁垒有不同程度的抬高,致使贸易摩擦不断。在这种大背景下,中国企业要想进一步占领国外市场,就必须改变传统的出口方式,通过对外直接投资来绕过贸易壁垒。此外,由于金融危机的影响,使对外直接投资尤其是跨国并购的门槛降低,更有利于企业通过对外直接投资来增强自身实力。     

中国对美国的贸易成本变动及影响因素研究

作为影响国际交换能否发生的重要因素,贸易成本已成为国际贸易研究的重要领域。在采用Novy模型就1995年至2012年中国对美国的贸易成本进行有效测度的基础上,对影响贸易成本变动的多种因素进行分析,结果显示：中国对美国贸易成本总体上呈现波浪式下降趋势;人民币过快升值会对贸易成本的降低产生不利影响;中国商业环境改善、进口关税水平降低等因素有助于降低贸易成本;原油价格变动对贸易成本的影响不大;FDI、美国进口关税水平与中美贸易成本之间不存在长期均衡关系。基于进一步分析发现,中国对美国贸易成本还有下降的空间,中国应充分挖掘贸易成本下降的途径,以进一步提高出口商品的竞争力。     

中国出口贸易联系是否稳定？

出口贸易持续期的长度反映了一国出口贸易联系的稳定性,是国际贸易领域研究的新议题。依据生存分析法,选择1992-2011年中国与37个主要出口目的地的样本数据,对出口贸易联系持续期变动及影响因素进行了量化分析。研究表明,中国出口贸易持续期较短,且生存概率呈快速下降趋势,短期内降低对发达市场出口过度依赖困难较大,而通过积极参加区域经济合作,并重视现有市场维护将对出口贸易的稳定发展起到更为显著的作用。