风暴潮灾害损失与沿海地区经济增长动态关系检验

文章首先测算风暴潮灾害损失指数,然后构建风暴潮灾害损失与沿海地区经济增长的VAR模型,采用格兰杰因果检验和脉冲响应分析,实证检验二者之间的动态关系。研究发现:风暴潮灾害损失对沿海地区经济增长造成的影响较弱,并不具有持续性,而沿海地区经济增长则是导致风暴潮灾害损失持续加重的一个重要原因。鉴于此,文章提出了相应的对策建议。     

我国风暴潮灾害债券设计研究

基于巨灾债券的理论与实践,从市场参与主体、投资属性、发行监管等方面探讨了风暴潮灾害债券的设计问题.研究显示,由于目前我国海洋灾害债券尚处于初步探索阶段,在综合考量发行成本、市场流动性和债券风险等多种微观因素的基础上,可在参数触发机制下,按照先外后内的顺序,面向机构投资者私募发行中短期风暴潮灾害债券.同时,建议从法律角度...     

江苏盐城海岸带风暴潮灾害经济评估方法研究

风暴潮是海岸带最严重的灾害之一,区域风暴潮经济损失评估对区域产业经济布局、区域风暴潮减灾防灾具有重要意义.文章对江苏海岸带风暴潮承载体的损失率进行了研究,并与其他区域进行了对比分析.在研究中鲜明地提出了风暴潮区域生态环境经济损失评估的概念,利用综合指数法结合感知器法对海岸带风暴潮经济评估和风暴潮灾度进行了探讨,并以江苏盐城海岸带为例进行了实例研究取得了较好的效果.研究发现,CIISSEL值能较好地反映风暴潮的区域经济损失状况,D值的大小可以细化灾度的级别.当前,风暴潮的经济损失估值难点在于受灾体损失率的确定,通过试验的方式是解决这个问题的办法之一.     

浙江千里海塘保障能力评估研究

浙江省地处东南沿海,台风暴潮灾害频繁,为此浙江省实施了千里海塘建设,随着千里海塘建设的完成,将从根本上提高浙江沿海地区防御风暴潮的能力。文章构建了评价指标体系,对浙江省各地区海塘保障能力进行了评价分析。     

气候变化对唐山市海域的影响与适应研究

气候变化对海洋区域影响显著。文章对河北省唐山市海洋环境对气候变化的响应特征进行探讨,分析了生态系统状况、海水入侵、盐渍化距离、赤潮、风暴潮、海冰灾害等各类监测情况,并进一步阐明适应性对策,提出以改善海洋生态系统的措施来减缓气候变化的影响。     

我国海洋灾害救助能力评价的实证研究——以上海风暴潮为例

借鉴相关学者构建的地震灾害应急准备能力评价指标体系，针对海洋灾害特点和当前海洋灾害救助体系结构内容，建立海洋灾害救助的三级评价模型。然后选择上海风暴潮进行灾害救助能力的实证分析、评价。结果表明，上海灾害救助体系较为完善，具有较强的救助能力。     

德、法、荷三国的防洪减灾

德、法、荷三国位于欧洲中西部,地理上相邻。德、法两国洪水多由暴雨、冰雪融水引起。荷兰50%的国土面积位于海平面以下,受洪涝和风暴潮的影响很大,历史上是一个洪涝和风暴潮灾害十分严重的国家。1.从环境水利的高度认识防洪,对河流进行综合治理在治理思路上,三个国家由过去单一地修建防洪工程来防灾减灾,转变为保护水环境的多目标综合治理,即环境水利的概念。他们认为,单一目标的治理,虽然取得了很大成效,但存在不足,如为了开发利用土地,采取围垦河滩和对河道实施“裁弯取直”等工程措施,改变了河流的自然蓄泄条件,导致洪峰提前和洪峰流量…     

黄河三角洲滨州市沿岸风暴潮成因分析

根据黄河三角洲海岸历史及实测潮水、气象、地理资料,分析产生风暴潮的原因,研究风暴潮规律;分析了东北大风与风暴潮增水、天文潮与风暴潮出现时间的关系;建立了流域内埕口站风暴潮预报方案,成功预报了渤海湾东南海岸埕口站附近海域1997、2003年风暴潮,为渤海湾东南海岸防灾、减灾提供科学依据。     

全球气候变暖背景下农业干旱灾害与粮食安全——基于西南五省面板数据的实证研究

干旱灾害是我国农业生产的最大风险,严重影响农产品生产供给与粮食安全。通过构建农业干旱灾害与粮食安全之间的计量模型,利用西南五省样本数据,实证检验了1997—2008年间农业干旱灾害对粮食安全的影响。结果表明,农业干旱灾害对粮食安全具有明显的影响。由此提出应对全球气候变暖下农业干旱灾害风险的策略:加强农田水利基础设施建设,通过增强水资源的时空调配能力达到农业抵御干旱灾害风险;选育耐旱作物品种,提高作物干旱忍耐力;调整粮食生产布局,在高旱灾频率地区,减少高耗水作物生产等。     

中国近30年海平面上升90毫米

国家海洋局1月16日公布了2007年《中国海平面公报》。近30年来,中国沿海海平面平均上升速率为每年2．5毫米,略高于全球平均水平。总体上升了90毫米,其中天津沿岸上升最快,为196毫米,上海次之,为115毫米。预计未来10年,中国沿海海平面将继续保持上升趋势,将比2007年上升32毫米。海平面上升与异常气候事件进一步加重了风暴潮、赤潮、成海入侵与盐渍化等海洋灾害。     

John Stuart Mill's Theory Of Justice

John Stuart Mill has traditionally been portrayed as self-contradictory and failing to construct a unified social theory. Recent scholarship, however, has challenged this view, finding Mill's work to be creatively synthetic in bridging the antinomies inherent in liberal democratic thought. This revisionist interpretation of Mill is advanced by an understanding of his theory of justice and its role in shaping his policy positions on issues such as welfare, education, voting rights, property rights, taxation, government intervention, and the future of capitalism.     

A Rich Vein for “Reality Mining”北大核心CSSCISSCI

Arik Hesseldahl In the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, U.S. officials quickly turned their attention to other potential targets, including California's Golden Gate Bridge. What would happen if terrorists took down the bridge between San Francisco and Marin County? How much of the region would be affected and for how long?     

中国养活自己能力的长期预测:技术和政策分析

中国拥有世界五分之一强的人口 ,收入又在迅速增长。因此 ,国际上很自然地会考虑或推测她在今后的几十年是否有能力养活自己。中国的人口预计将从 2 0 0 0年的 1 2 8亿增长到 2 0 2 0年的 1 4 6亿 ,和 2 0 3 0年的 1 4 9亿。与此同时 ,人均收入的增长将导致对家畜和鱼类产品更大的需求 ,因而对饲料的需求也将有很大的增长     

John Stuart Mill's Theories of Wealth and Income Distribution

Although he was much influenced by David Ricardo when he wrote the classical part of his Principles , John Stuart Mill was not a Ricardian when he penned his theories of wealth and distribution. They are based on a triple foundation. First, a belief that economics is a moral discipline. Second a theory of custom-driven human behavior. Third, an empirically formed conviction that the institutions of state, education and business cooperate to structure the distribution of income. On the basis of these presuppositions, Mill formulated 1) an institutional theory of the formation of human and non-human wealth and 2) an even more institutional theory of distribution demonstrating how the aforementioned institutions malignantly skew the distribution of income to the advantage of the propertied classes and to the extreme disadvantage of the working class. As a social economist, Mill recommended institutional reforms designed to eradicate the poverty of the working class.     

Toward a Phylogenetic Reconstruction of Organizational Life

Synopsis Classification is an important activity that facilitates theory development in many academic disciplines. Scholars in fields such as organizational science, management science and economics and have long recognized that classification offers an approach for ordering and understanding the diversity of organizational taxa (groups of one or more similar organizational entities). However, even the most prominent organizational classifications have limited utility, as they tend to be shaped by a specific research bias, inadequate units of analysis and a standard neoclassical economic view that does not naturally accommodate the disequilibrium dynamics of modern competition. The result is a relatively large number of individual and unconnected organizational classifications, which tend to ignore the processes of change responsible for organizational diversity. Collectively they fail to provide any sort of universal system for ordering, compiling and presenting knowledge on organizational diversity. This paper has two purposes. First, it reviews the general status of the major theoretical approaches to biological and organizational classification and compares the methods and resulting classifications derived from each approach. Definitions of key terms and a discussion on the three principal schools of biological classification (evolutionary systematics, phenetics and cladistics) are included in this review. Second, this paper aims to encourage critical thinking and debate about the use of the cladistic classification approach for inferring and representing the historical relationships underpinning organizational diversity. This involves examining the feasibility of applying the logic of common ancestry to populations of organizations. Consequently, this paper is exploratory and preparatory in style, with illustrations and assertions concerning the study and classification of organizational diversity.     

Information infrastructure: Who builds broadband networks?

This paper examines the essential difference between the U.S. and Japan, when one considers information infrastructure. There are seven perception gaps between the U.S. and Japan concerning Information Infrastructure policies. These gaps must be understood in order to compare the countries' governmental policies in this area. In looking at the present circumstances, the essential question to answer concerns who is to build, own and operate the network(s) of the infrastructure. Liberalization is certain to be a central factor in the ongoing telecommunications debates. Now that customers have had a taste of the liberalized market-place, the movement toward more open markets will be difficult to stop. When considering options, it is necessary to pay close attention to standardized network access and the increasingly important role software plays. These issues are causing us to take a new approach to the traditional role played by regulators. They also force a closer look at the appropriate structure of utility companies. This paper addresses the above issues in hopes of stimulating dialog on the new telecommunications infrastructure paradigm.     

海岛地区产业演替及资源基础分析--以舟山群岛为例

改革开放以来,舟山市产业构成发生了显著变化,其经济发展过程可以划分为三个阶段。1992年前,是以产业结构渔业占绝对地位的单一结构阶段;1993—1998年,以旅游业为主的第三产业快速发展阶段;上世纪末以来,又进入了新一轮的经济发展时期,即工业产值比重快速增加阶段。根据海岛的自然资源基础和特点,在新世纪的经济发展过程中,舟山市应定位为生态型的港口旅游城市。以港口及临港工业为主导,以海岛旅游和海洋经济为特色,大力发展第二产业和第三产业。海岛地区的主导产业应体现海岛资源优势及区位优势,以集群性环保型产业为主。同时由于海岛地区淡水资源缺乏,主导产业也应着重选择低耗水型产业。     

风险视角下企业治理结构和研发创新——基于委托代理模型的研究

本文基于委托代理模型,从风险的视角研究企业治理结构对研发创新能力的影响。本文构建了一个包含创新活动的委托代理模型进行理论分析,利用动态DEA 模型测算创新能力,并使用2015-2018年我国上市制造业企业数据进行实证检验。实证部分检验了理论结论:委托代理问题不利于企业提升研发创新能力,且客观风险和主观风险厌恶会加剧该负面影响。基于此,本文认为上市企业应根据企业自身研发活动特点有针对性地改善企业治理结构,提出了适当延长代理人任期、推动股权激励计划、提升代理人的风险承担能力等建议。     

生物群落结构原型的仿生学模拟

模拟生命系统管理规律的科学即管理仿生学,是知识时代仿生学研究的新领域与前沿.基于模拟生物群落结构规律的研究目的,采用仿生学模拟的研究方法,以生物群落结构为原型,建立了仿生群落结构模型.结论为:垂直结构、水平结构、时间结构与交错区结构是支持生物群落生命活动的结构规律,以该规律为原型,推理建立了仿生分层结构、仿生优化结构、仿生动态结构与仿生相邻结构,四种仿生结构分别侧重于管理资源的分层管理、局部优化管理、动态过程管理、相邻关系管理,该模型为建立类似生物群落的人造管理系统即仿生群落管理系统提供了仿生结构模型.可以预测,该模型具有广泛的应用价值,能够推动管理仿生学的发展.