中国民间借贷风险研究——风险表现、成因剖析与对策建议

2011年,浙江、内蒙古、山东、河南、江苏、广东、福建、宁夏等省发生的几十起民间借贷风险事件带来的巨大社会震荡引起中央政府和金融管理部门的高度关注。本文详细阐述了我国民间借贷的风险表现,深入剖析了造成我国民间借贷风险的原因,并在此基础上提出应对民间借贷风险的对策建议。     

Land Development: Risk, Return and Risk Management

We model and examine the financial aspects of the land development process incorporating the industry practice of preselling lots to builders through the use of option contracts as a risk management technique. Using contingent claims valuation, we are able to determine endogenously the land value, presale option value, credits spreads and the effects of presales on debt pricing and equity expected returns. We show that using presales options effectively shift market risk from the land developer to the builder. Results from the model are consistent with the high rates of return on equity observed in empirical surveys; they also suggest that developers may be justified in pursuing projects with substantially lower expected returns to equity when a large number of lots can be presold. Additionally, we show that presales reduce default risk dramatically for leveraged projects and can support a considerable reduction in the cost of construction financing. Large debt risk premiums are justified for highly levered projects, which helps explain the use of mezzanine financing in the land development industry to reduce expected default costs.

Corporate Financial Control Mechanisms and Firm Performance: The Case of Value-Based Management Systems

Abstract:  We examine the performance of 84 firms that adopt value-based management (VBM) systems during the period 1984-1997. The typical firm significantly improves matched-firm-adjusted residual income after adopting VBM. This improvement persists for the five post-adoption years studied. After controlling for possible sample bias, we find that large firms show less improvement than small firms. We find a negative relation between tying compensation to VBM and post-adoption performance. We also find that firms reduce capital expenditures following VBM adoption, but that the reductions in spending do not differ based on the firms' growth opportunities. Overall, the evidence suggests that VBM improves economic performance and the efficient use of capital.     

金融科技布局、银行信贷风险与经营绩效——来自商业银行与科技企业战略合作的证据

商业银行通过布局金融科技进行的金融服务创新,已成为深化金融供给侧结构性改革的重要举措。本文通过手工搜集2005—2019年323家商业银行与科技企业战略合作的数据,研究银行布局金融科技如何影响其信贷风险与经营绩效。结果表明：(1)银行布局金融科技战略能降低银行信贷风险,提高银行经营绩效;(2)银行布局金融科技通过提高其自身创新能力与竞争力从而降低银行的信贷风险水平;(3)银行布局金融科技,通过降低信贷风险、提升普惠金融服务、提高运营管理能力与拓展中间业务这四个渠道提高了银行经营绩效;(4)全国性银行发展金融科技使其信贷风险水平得到降低,资本充足率低的银行通过布局金融科技降低信贷风险的效果更强。同时,信用贷款比重越高的银行通过发展金融科技降低信贷风险、提高经营绩效的效果更加明显。本文研究有助于理解商业银行顺势而为所进行的金融科技布局的微观经济后果,也为进一步完善金融服务实体经济相关政策提供参考。     

Carbon Accounting: Challenges for Research in Management Control and Performance Measurement

Carbon reduction programs and corporate emissions reporting have expanded rapidly across firms in response to climate change and global warming. This development is partly driven by institutional demands and partly by value creation considerations. The consequences of these developments for management accounting and control (MAC) are not clear, despite anecdotal evidence that suggests an increasing effort to incorporate carbon accounting into traditional decision and reporting processes. The reasons for this lack of clarity are the disproportionate focus in practice on carbon disclosure, compared to a small number of empirical studies, and the absence of an academic debate in this novel area from a MAC perspective. This paper seeks to stimulate such an academic debate by reviewing the extant literature, identifying key theoretical and empirical shortcomings of extant academic research, and outlining some directions for future studies on carbon accounting. These directions are inspired by more established MAC research that may help to guide and organize MAC research in the emerging and exciting field of carbon accounting.     

Risk perceptions,preferences and management strategies: evidence from a case study using German livestock farmers

We analyze the factors affecting farmers’ choice accounting for farm, farmer, and household characteristics as well as elicited risk perception and risk preferences. We consider three alternative hypothetical methods for assessing risk preferences to test the stability and behavioral validity of them. Our case study focuses on livestock farmers in the German region North Rhine-Westphalia. We find that risk preferences are context depending, i.e. differ across different fields of farm-level decision-making. Furthermore, our analysis shows that risk-averse farmers are more likely to prioritize on-farm risk management strategies over off-farm strategies. Moreover, higher risk perception, age, subjective numeracy, farm succession, farm size, and the proportion of rented land show a significant impact on farmers’ risk behavior     

慈善捐赠、广告营销与企业绩效—— 考虑行业竞争因素

基于消费者视角,利用2007~2012年我国沪深两市 A 股上市公司的数据,实证检验了在考虑行业竞争的条件下,慈善捐赠行为对广告营销活动与企业销售增长之间关系的影响机制。研究发现,广告营销投入、慈善捐赠水平和行业竞争程度之间的三项交互作用显著。这一结论表明,对于那些在激烈竞争行业环境中运营的企业来说,慈善捐赠水平高而非低时,广告营销投入对企业销售增长的正向影响更强,因此,与处于弱竞争行业的企业相比,处于强竞争行业的企业更应充分利用好慈善捐赠在改善传统营销方式市场效果方面的杠杆作用。     

Risk management,nonlinearity and aggressiveness in monetary policy: The case of the US Fed

We contribute to the empirical literature on the risk-management approach to monetary policy by estimating regime switching models where the strength of the response of monetary policy to macroeconomic conditions depends on the level of risk associated with the inflation outlook and risk in financial markets. Using quarterly data for the Greenspan period we find that: (i) risk in the inflation outlook and in financial markets are a more powerful driver of monetary policy regime changes than variables typically suggested in the literature, such as the level of inflation and the output gap; (ii) estimation of regime switching models shows that the response of the US Fed to the inflation outlook is invariant across policy regimes; (iii) however, in periods of high economic risk monetary policy tends to respond more aggressively to the output gap and the degree of inertia tends to be lower than in normal circumstances; and (iv) the US Fed is estimated to have responded aggressively to the output gap in the late 1980s and beginning of the 1990s, and in the late 1990s and early 2000s. These results are consistent with Mishkin (2008)’s view that in periods of high economic risk monetary authorities should respond aggressively to changes in macroeconomic conditions while the degree of inertia should be lower than in normal circumstances.     

Challenges to Implementing Strategic Performance Measurement Systems in Multi‐Objective Organizations: The Case of a Large Local Government Authority

A case study of the implementation of the balanced scorecard in a large local government authority is reported. Based on interview data, the factors that were perceived by senior managers to be important to the success or failure of the implementation are analysed. It is determined that scorecard measures were not effectively cascaded down to lower levels of the organization. Various inter‐related problems of leadership, training, feedback, employee empowerment and weak incentive schemes combined to cause communication difficulties which prevented the cascading problem from being effectively addressed.     

Risk regulation,community pressure and the use of management accounting in managing climate change risk: Australian evidence

This exploratory study is amongst the first to investigate how companies perceive the regulation of carbon emissions and the pressure exerted by the community in an environment characterised by risk and uncertainty. Semi-structured interviews were conducted among 39 executives who were directly involved in carbon emissions management in 18 large listed Australian companies. Consistent with Prospect Theory, we find that decision-makers are threat biased and are more likely to take immediate actions when climate change issues are framed as threats as opposed to opportunities. From the interview data, it is seen that managers use management accounting techniques as a risk management tool in mitigating risks associated climate change issues. Furthermore, this use of management accounting appears to be driven primarily by the protection of economic interests, regulatory pressure and reputational pressure. The study provides insights into how perceptions of climate change uncertainties and external pressure for disclosure of emissions information influence companies to use management accounting in managing climate change risk.     

Cross-listing as a Global Depository Receipt: The influence of emerging markets,regulation, and accounting regime

This paper examines factors influencing international firms’ decisions to cross-list as Global Depository Receipts (GDRs). We focus on differences in regulatory and accounting requirements between exchanges and the economic clustering that has arisen with increasing globalization. An important economic influence on this decision is the home country, reflecting trade ties. Higher US regulation and governance requirements influence firms from emerging markets to issue GDRs rather than ADRs on a US exchange. Using local GAAP or IFRS also tends to deter firms from listing as an ADR, suggesting that the cost of US GAAP reconciliation is an important consideration in the decision to list as a GDR or an ADR.     

Tools, Techniques and Tightropes: The Art of Walking and Talking Private Sector Management in Non–profit Organisations, is it Just a Question of Balance?

The focus of this paper, first presented at a European Institute for Advanced Studies in Management workshop on challenges of managing in the third sector, is the experiences of small to medium non–profit organisations and their relationship with management tools and techniques. It seeks to raise debate around implications for the creative use of private sector management tools and to contribute to understanding of non–profit management practice. While lessons may be learned from business techniques and processes, the paper contends that execution of business enhancing tools needs to be considered in contexts relevant to the sector's interests and primary aims.     

The Emergence of Corporate Governance from Wall St. to Main St.: Outside Directors, Board Diversity, Earnings Management, and Managerial Incentives to Bear Risk

Recent corporate events have brought a heightened public awareness to corporate governance issues. Much work has been accomplished to date, but it is clear that much more remains to be done. This paper provides a review of empirical research in four relevant areas of corporate governance. Specifically, the paper provides an overview of (a) the role that outside directors play in monitoring managers, (b) the emerging literature on the impact of board diversity, (c) the existence of and incentives for corporate executives to manage firm earnings, and (d) managerial incentives to bear risk.     

The Fundamental Review of the Trading Book: Implications for Portfolio and Risk Management in the Banking Sector

The Fundamental Review of the Trading Book (FRTB) is the promised overhaul of bankmarket risk regulation. FRTB retains the authorized use of proprietary risk models, however, it introduces two additional criteria: (i) P&L attribution (PLA) tests and (ii) desk-level backtests. We examine empirically whether these additional criteria influence risk management and portfolio management practice, specifically portfolio construction and choice of risk model. We find that the PLA tests demand significant alignment with risk factors, however, the backtests do not incentivize use of superior risk models. This has important implications for the efficacy of the capital-based regulatory system.     

The Department of Justice as a gatekeeper in whistleblower-initiated corporate fraud enforcement: Drivers and consequences

We examine drivers and consequences of U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) oversight of whistleblower cases of corporate fraud against the government. We find that the DOJ is more likely to intervene in and conduct longer investigations of cases that have a higher chance of victory and yield greater monetary proceeds, indicating that DOJ enforcement is influenced by its performance measures. DOJ intervention also affects the firm- and aggregate-level fraud environment. Firms subject to DOJ intervention improve their employee relations, internal controls, and board independence, and experience lower future whistleblowing risk. Whistleblowers avoid courts and agencies with low DOJ intervention rates. In contrast, we do not find that cases pursued by whistleblowers alone affect firms' or whistleblowers' behavior, suggesting that public enforcement through DOJ intervention has a greater deterrent effect on fraud than private enforcement by whistleblowers acting alone.     

The impact of symbiotic relations on the performance of micro,small and medium enterprises in a small-town context: The perspective of risk and return

This study uses a financial lens to investigate and discuss how symbiotic relationships can enhance business performance, particularly in terms of risk and return for micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs). A mixed-method approach, using both Partial Least Square Structure Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM) and thematic analysis, is employed to analyse the information from 200 MSMEs. The findings indicate that symbiotic relationships among businesses help MSMEs to reduce risks and increase returns. The study provides a model that is potentially applicable to other settings and pertinent for policymakers, trade associations and MSMEs.     

The Implementation and Use of Benchmarking in Local Government: A Case Study of the Translation of a Management Accounting Innovation

Benchmarking is a management accounting innovation (MAI) that can be used for performance measurement and management in both the private and the public sectors. Although public sector accounting researchers have reported some success with the use of benchmarking, frequently charged problems exist in implementing and using this management technique. To look beyond the technical and institutional explanations, this paper takes a translation approach and presents a case study of a local government benchmarking network. We conclude that there is a link between benchmarking implementation problems and initiators’ failure to build a strong network of benchmarking allies. Implementation is facilitated if actors, other than the initiators, recognize the possibility of making benchmarking more relevant and less cost focused. However, even when a network of actors has a favourable attitude towards benchmarking, benchmarking may still appear as an unruly ‘actant’. Furthermore, the perception of implementation failure and success is heterogeneous and connected to various actors’ adoption of benchmarking. We also conclude that there is a connection between the use of benchmarking and 1) actors’ possibilities to use benchmarking in the struggle for resources and 2) the perception of benchmarking information as ‘factual’ or ‘factual enough’. However, the perception of benchmarking information as ‘factual’ or ‘factual enough’ seems not only a matter of correct or incorrect ratios but also of whether such information serves actors’ interests. A final conclusion is that the use of benchmarking increases when actors other than the initiators complement the original idea and ‘counter interest’ the initiators.     

A Time to Scatter Stones,and a Time to Gather Them: The Annual Cycle in Hedge Fund Risk Taking

Analyzing a sample of hedge fund daily returns from Bloomberg, we find a seasonal pattern in their risk taking. During earlier months of a year, poorly performing funds reduce risk. The reduction is stronger for funds with higher management fees, shorter redemption periods, and recently deteriorating performance, consistent with a managerial aversion to early fund liquidation. Toward the end of a year, poorly performing funds gamble for resurrection by increasing risk. It is largely achieved by increasing exposure to market factors, and can be linked to stronger indirect managerial incentives during the second half of a year.