利率变化对上证指数日收益率及波动率影响的实证分析

本文利用引入虚拟变量的GARCH-M模型,选取适当的样本数据,分析了央行在2000年以后4次基准利率调整对上证指数日收益率和波动率的影响。实证结果表明,并非每次的利率调整对上证指数的日收益率都有显著的影响,而且不同时期的利率调整对上证指数的日收益率和波动率的影响是不相同的。     

高频数据下积分波动率矩阵的伪似然估计、预测及应用

研究目标:利用高频数据准确估计和预测高维积分波动率矩阵,并将矩阵的预测值应用于资产投资组合的构造中。研究方法:通过保留p×p维已实现波动率矩阵的特征向量,对积分波动率矩阵的特征值进行预测,本文将积分波动率矩阵的估计和预测问题转化为p个一维积分波动率的估计和预测问题。研究发现:对高维已实现波动率矩阵过于发散的特征值进行调整能够提高矩阵估计的准确性;对资产收益率的积分波动率矩阵建立动态模型可以提高矩阵预测的精度。研究创新:将高维矩阵的估计和预测问题转化为矩阵特征向量的估计以及一维特征值的估计和预测问题;基于高频数据并建立资产收益率积分波动率矩阵的动态模型提高了资产投资组合的样本外表现。研究价值:本文提出的积分波动率矩阵估计和预测方法能够保证矩阵估计值和预测值的正定性;本文的预测方法能够提高矩阵的预测精度,能够在复杂的金融市场中构造低风险的资产组合。     

我国金融数据高频收益率波动结构突变的检测研究

本文基于Lavielle和Teyssière(2005)提出的惩罚对照函数,对我国上证综指自2005年7月1日至2010年6月30日的5分钟收益率序列,及其已实现波动进行波动结构变点检测,结果发现有两个结构变点。针对这两个结构变点,本文采用了HAR-RV-J模型对其已实现波动进行分段建模,研究不同期限的投资者对股市波动的影响作用。实证分析的结果表明结构突变发生的时间均能与相应的重大经济事件相对应,而且随着时间的推移,短期投资者对股市波动的影响逐渐加大。     

Diffusion of an Accounting Innovation: Fixed Asset Accounting in the NHS in Wales

As part of ‘New Public Management’ in the UK, changes have been made to the accounting regime. These changes typically involve the adoption of private sector accounting and budgeting approaches using accruals accounting. The process by which new ideas are spread is known as diffusion; this paper deals with the aspect of diffusion relating to the imposition of a new idea, accruals accounting, and how it is absorbed by the organisation, in this case the NHS in Wales. In particular, the paper questions whether the lack of secondary diffusion is limiting the influence of the new accounting approach. To analyse the level of diffusion we have focused on one aspect, namely, information on capital assets. The paper uses a mixture of qualitative and quantitative research methods including in-depth interviews with senior managers at two NHS Trusts and a questionnaire survey with responses from senior finance staff in all NHS Trusts in Wales. We conclude that the diffusion of accruals accounting for fixed assets has been restricted to the primary level at the top layer of management and has not penetrated below that level. There is evidence of continuing managerial indifference to the accruals accounting consequences of owning fixed assets.     

An Example of Data Technology Product: A Control Chart for Weibull Processes

This work proposes a new Shewhart-type control chart of the Weibull percentile (i.e. the reliable life) as a practical example of a product attained following the Data Technology (DT) approach. DT is briefly introduced as a new discipline defined apart from Information Technology (IT). Following this approach, some specific Bayes estimators are selected from literature and then used to build the above new chart. These estimators allow to improve the control making use of any available kind of data (statistical and non-statistical). The operative steps of DT approach are fully explained. The results are illustrated by means of a real applicative example.     

企业管理创新对资产管理绩效影响的研究——以神东煤炭集团资产管理为例

资产管理是企业提升竞争力、赢得绩效的重要内容。本文以神东煤炭集团资产管理为研究对象,探索文化理念、管理制度、管理方式及管理工具等管理创新要素对资产管理绩效的影响。研究表明,与战略契合的管理文化理念、权责分配和奖惩激励机制、精益化资产管理方式及持续完善的信息化管理系统相结合的协同管理创新能有效提升企业资产管理绩效。     

几种异质自回归实现波动率模型的有效性——基于中国股票市场高频数据的实证研究

本文对HAR-RV-CJ模型了进一步的改进,提出的假定模型回归系数为1的整合的IHAR-RV-CJ模型,实证对比了HAR模型,含跳的HAR-J和HAR-CJ模型在系数通过合理的约束为整1后以及原始模型对中国股市波动率的刻画和预测问题。实证结果显示,在四种损失函数综合对比下,IHAR模型同样适用于刻画对中国股市波动率,相对于原始模型提高了模型的预测精度,且我们所构建的IHAR-RV-CJ模型预测的有效性要高于IHAR-RV-J模型。     

网络顾客口碑传诵传播框架研究：中间人效应

口碑传颂（WOM）是当今最有力量、最具说服力的传播方式之一。本文在回顾口碑传颂研究现状的基础上,首次加入了中间人角色,提出了以口碑制造者,中间人和接收者3方面组成的网络口碑传颂的传播框架模型,以网络群体作为测试对象,检验了口碑传颂网络中不同角色的行为特征,对口碑营销有实际的借鉴意义。     

Weak and Strong Cross‐Sectional Dependence: A Panel Data Analysis of International Technology Diffusion

This paper provides an econometric examination of technological knowledge spillovers among countries by focusing on the issue of error cross‐sectional dependence, particularly on the different ways—weak and strong—that this dependence may affect model specification and estimation. A preliminary analysis based on estimation of the exponent of cross‐sectional dependence provides a clear result in favor of strong cross‐sectional dependence. This result has relevant implications in terms of econometric modeling and suggests that a factor structure is preferable to a spatial error model. The common correlated effects approach is then used because it remains valid in a variety of situations that are likely to occur, such as the presence of both forms of dependence or the existence of nonstationary factors. According to the estimation results, richer countries benefit more from domestic R&D and geographic spillovers than poorer countries, while smaller countries benefit more from spillovers originating from trade. The results also suggest that when the problem of (possibly many) correlated unobserved factors is addressed the quantity of education no longer has a significant effect. Finally, a comparison of the results with those obtained from a spatial model provides interesting insights into the bias that may arise when we allow only for weak dependence, despite the presence of strong dependence in the data. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Bayesian Approach to Parameter Estimation in the Presence of Spatial Missing Data

The missing data problem has been widely addressed in the literature. The traditional methods for handling missing data may be not suited to spatial data, which can exhibit distinctive structures of dependence and/or heterogeneity. As a possible solution to the spatial missing data problem, this paper proposes an approach that combines the Bayesian Interpolation method [Benedetti, R. & Palma, D. (1994) Markov random field-based image subsampling method, Journal of Applied Statistics, 21(5), 495–509] with a multiple imputation procedure. The method is developed in a univariate and a multivariate framework, and its performance is evaluated through an empirical illustration based on data related to labour productivity in European regions.