Duration of unemployment in the Dutch youth labour market

Summary This paper is concerned with the specification and estimation of a one-state proportional hazard model to explain the duration of unemployment in the Dutch youth labour market. Special attention is given explaining the unequal distribution of unemployment experiences among young labour force participants. The model is estimated using data from a 1984 national random sample of young people unemployed in May and interviewed in October/November. It is found that the replacement ratio has no significant effect. The predicted youth wage on the other hand is significant. The paper also presents and compares different functional forms for modelling duration dependence and heterogeneity.A more extensive version of this paper was published by the Organisation for Strategic Labour Market Research (OSA) in The Hague as working paper nr. 14, 1985. We wish to thank this organisation for its encouragement and for its financial support. We also wish to thank M. Bom, J. Hartog, T. Manders, E. de Regt and G. Ridder for their comments and help.     

The black dropout rate and the black youth unemployment rate: A Granger-causal analysis

The high unemployment rate of black high school graduates can create the perception that a diploma is of little value and encourage dropping-out of school. Black youth who do drop out are less employable and further push up the black youth unemployment rate. This raises a question: Is the high dropout rate of black youth due to their high unemployment rate or is their high unemployment rate due to their high dropout rate? A study of this question using the definition of Granger-causality finds that it is the high unemployment rate which causes the high dropout rate rather than the opposite.     

浅析中国城镇失业认识的三大误区

我国经过20多年的经济体制改革,计划经济正迅速地向市场经济转变,由于中国特有的人口包袱、改革前国企所沉淀的大量隐性失业人员、大批农村剩余劳动力,再加上产业结构调整所带来的结构性失业等,使失业问题变得十分严峻。当失业率超过了一定的限度时,其结果必将影响社会的稳定     

Foreign capital,welfare and urban unemployment in the presence of agricultural dualism

In a two sector mobile capital Harris–Todaro model, such as [Corden, W.M., Findlay, R., 1975. Urban unemployment, intersectoral capital mobility, and development policy in a dual economy. Economica 42, 59–78], an inflow of foreign capital in the presence of protectionist policy is welfare deteriorating as well as unemployment accentuating. But, the developing countries have chosen liberalized investment and trade policies as their development strategies and have been able to attract a considerable amount of foreign capital during the last two decades. A relevant question is why these countries are yearning for foreign capital given its detrimental effects as predicted by the conventional theoretical literature on trade and development. This paper makes an attempt to address the above issue in terms of a three sector Harris–Todaro model with agricultural dualism and a non-traded final commodity. In the given setup, an inflow of foreign capital is likely to improve welfare and does not necessarily worsen the problem of unemployment. The paper may also be useful to explain as to why many of the developing economies have experienced ‘jobless growth’ in the liberalized regime.     

Access to paved roads,gender, and youth unemployment in rural areas: Evidence from sub-Saharan Africa

The poor development of road infrastructure is one of the main obstacles to economic activity and therefore to employment in rural areas of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Using cross-sectional data from 31 SSA countries, this study examines, from a gender perspective, the effect of access to paved roads on youth unemployment in rural areas in the region. The seemingly unrelated bivariate probit framework has been adopted in analysing the data. This approach is used for addressing the possible endogeneity bias that occurs when the dependent variable and regressor are both endogenous and binary. The major finding of this study reveals that access to paved roads in rural areas reduces the probability that young people will face unemployment. The aforementioned is more pronounced for young women than for young men. Moreover, the greater the proximity to the road increases, the greater its reducing effect on the probability of young people being unemployed. It is therefore important that the development of road infrastructure in rural areas be at the centre of public policies to address youth unemployment in SSA countries. This will significantly increase women's empowerment, through their participation in the labour market, and the full economic participation of young people.     

Poverty and unemployment in India: An analysis of recent evidence

This paper examines the association between poverty and unemployment using the data collected by the Indian National Sample Survey from October 1972 to September 1973. Data is analyzed for two states of India: Gujarat and Maharshtra. Contrary to the widely accepted view, supported even in the ILO reports, that the poor are too poor to remain unemployed, this paper highlights a clear association between unemployment and poverty (as measured by the per capita expenditure of households). Poverty is, however, more widespread than unemployment.     

Milk in the city: profiles and development paths for urban dairy holders in Ethiopia

ABSTRACT

Demand for dairy products is growing fast in urban areas. Due to poorly developed rural infrastructure, urban dairy farms are pivotal in making milk available and affordable in towns and cities. Yet current supply fails to meet the increasing demand. In order to formulate fit interventions that can expand urban dairy production, a detailed understanding of urban dairy systems is needed. Using a cluster analysis approach, we profile 304 urban dairy farms in Mekelle, Northern Ethiopia, along three dimensions: input efficiency, market integration, and resilience towards demand seasonality. Our results suggest five distinctive farm types: surviving farms, processing female farms, young male entrepreneurs, established output-efficient farms, and established output-input-efficient farms. We observe large discrepancies in terms of dairy enterprise’s productivity, profitability, and suitability in future urban policy planning. For each of the identified dairy systems, we sketch potential intervention approaches that can feed into more tailored dairy development programmes.     

Overpopulation and unemployment in Zimbabwe

The size of Zimbabwe's African population has grown dramatically over the past 50 years, with 5.7 children on average being born per woman. The following factors are responsible for the rapid population growth in Zimbabwe: the country's economic prosperity during the period of the Central African Federation from 1953 to 1963, and its successful food policy before and after independence; the success of the health system, also in both periods; and the fact that women have not been incorporated into the economy as wage-earners. A brief historical overview is presented, followed by sections on the food policy and health system, reasons for the persistence of large families, and the relationship between wage-earning by women and the birth rate. The author also describes some of the problems caused by overpopulation. Engaging more women in regular wage-earning employment is the key to controlling the birth rate in Zimbabwe. Current government policies encouraging female employment in government services and the economy in general, along with the expansion of contraceptive services, could influence female fertility over the long term.     

中国对外贸易与城镇失业关系的实证分析

本文利用1978～2005年的年度数据,采用协整分析技术、误差修正模型和多变量Granger因果关系检验方法,检验了我国出口、进口、城镇失业人口之间的关系。实证分析结果表明,出口、进口、城镇失业人口之间存在唯一的协整关系;同时存在两个方向的Granger因果关系:进口增长是出口增长的原因;进口增长是城镇失业增加的原因,我国在制订贸易政策与就业政策时须注意三者的协调,以促进经济的增长。     

Current unemployment of graduates in China

It is a common phenomenon of current unemployment, especially, among graduates. Through comparison between the historical record and nowadays about unemployment, the conclusion is that each epoch has its unique characters, as well as some uniform points. To realize the issue distinctly, several aspects should focus on： the situation about historical and current unemployment respectively, the reason why it occurs, the negative effects and the solutions.     

Youth unemployment in Northern Ireland

Nearly one tenth (8 per cent) of each cohort of school leavers in Northern Ireland experience long spells of unemployment and inactivity ("Status 0") between the ages of 16 and 18. This is important because many such young people are likely to end up unemployed and long-term unemployed in later life. In Northern Ireland around 15 per cent of the male workforce is unemployed, and around one half of these have been out of work for more than one year. This paper outlines the nature of the Status 0 experience amongst 16 and 17 year olds in Northern Ireland, and discusses three main aspects of policy which might guide the overall policy response in Northern Ireland and elsewhere.

Firstly, resources should be targeted carefully towards the most “at risk” young people, especially during the early stages of their progression through compulsory education. Secondly, relevant professionals should ensure that the most marginalised young people are not allowed to fall through the nets of mainstream provision and, in particular, every effort should be made to help young people avoid entering Status 0 immediately after leaving school. Thirdly, consideration should be given to the financial incentives faced by training providers in terms of recruiting low achievers who are at most risk of entering Status 0. There is some evidence to suggest that many of the existing incentives in Northern Ireland are inadequate and, in some cases, may exacerbate many of the problems faced by marginalised young people.     

The ideology of unemployment

Summary The views on unemployment, its significance, its causes and its possible remedies are manifold and ideologically loaded. The author's plea is for a cool approach, that is, for the building and the testing of empirical models. But he also enumerates a number of ideological elements in the art of model building; in particular the influence of profits is difficult to ascertain quantitively. This leads to beliefs and to room for ideology. The author singles out five elasticities that he considers to be key parameters; research work should concentrate on estimating these five elasticities.     

Hysteresis in unemployment in the Netherlands

Summary The Dutch labour market situation in the eighties can be characterized by the hysteresis phenomenon, i. e. a rising natural rate of unemployment as a result of the rise of actual unemployment in the past. It appears that the hysteresis phenomenon is more important in The Netherlands than in France and the United States and as relevant as in Germany and the United Kingdom. Because of the steep rise of unemployment in The Netherlands the natural rate of unemployment may have risen more than in Other European countries. As a consequence, the wage depressing effect of the current high unemployment rate has diminished rapidly.I thank J.C. Siebrand, D.P. Broer and C.B. Mulder for helpful comments on an earlier version of this paper.