中国民营上市公司债务融资破产威胁功效的实证研究

以2002～2007年陷入财务危机的民营上市公司（ST公司）为研究样本．通过相关分析实证检验了中国债务融资的破产威胁功效.研究发现,中国民营上市公司债务融资总体上对财务状况恶劣的公司起到了债务治理作用,发挥了破产威胁功效。短期债务能够对陷入财务危机的民营上市公司起到改善业绩的作用,较好地发挥破产威胁功效,而长期债务未能发挥破产威胁作用。银行贷款能够促进陷入财务困境的民营上市公司改善业绩,发挥破产威胁功效,而商业信用却没能发挥破产威胁功效。     

The Determinants of Financial Structure: New Insights from Business Start‐ups

Business start‐ups lack prior history and reputation, face high failure risk, and have highly concentrated ownership. The resulting information and incentive problems, combined with entrepreneurial private benefits of control, affect initial financing decisions. This paper examines simultaneously the impact of these issues on leverage, debt mix and maturity. We find that start‐ups with high adverse selection and risk shifting problems contract less bank debt but compensate with other debt sources. Start‐ups in growing industries have lower leverage, but raise more bank debt. Entrepreneurs with large private control benefits contract less but longer term bank loans to lower the default probability.     

企业发债和贷款期限的差异化:基于增量法的实证研究

已有文献主要从资产负债表法来实证研究企业负债期限结构的影响因素,本文以我国企业在1998～2008年企业发行的各类债券和银行贷款为研究对象,运用增量法从企业财务特征和债务契约属性等方面对企业增量债务期限的影响因素进行实证研究,采用了GMM计量方法,并通过对比分析筛选出了影响企业发债和贷款期限差异化的关键因素。研究表明:企业规模越大,利润率越高,具备担保,信用评级和授信比率越高,其债务期限越长。企业若选择发债,债务期限会延长,而选择银行贷款则企业债务期限会缩短。     

Call it good,bad or no news? The valuation effect of debt issues

Studies investigating market reactions to changes in capital structure aim to find the impact of private information conveyed. However, these studies ignore that financial decisions are not made randomly but are conditional on managers’ private information. Using a sample of U.S. leverage‐increasing public companies with public long‐term debt offerings, we find that debt offerings convey no new information to the markets after considering the conditionality of decisions. We also show that results can be biased if the deterministic role played by private information ex ante is omitted, which may explain the conflicting valuation evidence found in the literature.     

中国银行借款与商业信用融资的治理效应：过度投资视角

依据沪深 A股主板市场2007-2015年样本数据,考量中国银行借款与商业信用融资的治理效应.结果显示:无论是国有控股公司还是民营公司,银行借款均对其过度投资行为存在诱发作用;与短期借款相比,长期借款对公司过度投资的诱发作用更加突出.结果表明,商业信用融资有助于抑制公司过度投资,且市场化程度越高的地区这种抑制作用越突出.     

The Relevance of a Segment Cash Flow Statement in Lending Decisions: An Empirical Study

The purpose of this study is to examine the relevance of a segment cash flow statement in the lending decisions of commercial bank loan officers. 117 loan officers made short term, intermediate term, and long term lending decisions using case materials prepared for a company that operates in two industries—soft drinks and farm machinery/equipment. Results indicate that segment cash flow statements are relevant in lending decisions under certain circumstances. When given the ‘good news’ that a stable industry was the cash source, loan officers in the soft drinks group granted more long term loans than those in the control group. When given the ‘bad news’ that a troubled industry was the cash source, loan officers in the farm group made smaller short term loans than those in the control group.     

Industry Structure and Corporate Debt Maturity

We examine how industry competition affects firms’ choice of short‐term debt. We find that the percentage of short‐term debt is positively related to industry concentration at low levels of concentration, and inversely related to industry concentration at higher levels of concentration. This nonlinear relation is stronger in industries where firms are either more homogeneous or compete more aggressively. Moreover, we find that firms with shorter‐maturity debt are less aggressive than their rivals in the product market. The overall evidence suggests that although financial contracts alleviate agency problems, they exacerbate the risk of predation.     

Funding Liquidity without Banks: Evidence from a Shock to the Cost of Very Short‐Term Debt

In 2011, Colombia instituted a tax on repayment of bank loans, which increased the cost of short‐term bank credit more than long‐term credit. Firms responded by cutting short‐term loans for liquidity management purposes and increasing the use of cash and trade credit. In industries in which trade credit is more accessible (based on U.S. Compustat firms), we find substitution into accounts payable and little effect on cash and investment. Where trade credit is less available, firms increase cash and cut investment. Thus, trade credit provides an alternative source of liquidity that can insulate some firms from bank liquidity shocks.     

Strategic Financial Management: Lessons from Seasoned Equity Offerings

Each of today's three dominant academic theories of capital structure has trouble explaining the financing behavior of companies that have seasoned equity offerings (SEOs). In conflict with the tradeoff theory, the authors’ recent studies of some 7,000 SEOs by U.S. industrial companies over the period 1970‐2017 notes that the vast majority of them—on the order of 80%—had the effect of moving the companies away from, rather than toward, their target leverage ratios. Inconsistent with the pecking‐order theory, SEO issuers have tended to be financially healthy companies with low leverage and considerable unused debt capacity. And at odds with the market‐timing theory, SEOs appear to be driven more by the capital requirements associated with large investment projects than by favorable market conditions. The authors’ findings also show that, in the years following their stock offerings, the SEO companies tend to issue one or more debt offerings, which have the effect of raising their leverage back toward their targets. Whereas each of the three theories assumes some degree of shortsightedness among financial managers, the authors’ findings suggest that long‐run‐value‐maximizing CFOs manage their capital structures strategically as opposed to opportunistically. They consider the company's current leverage in relation to its longer‐run target, its investment opportunities and long‐term capital requirements, and the costs and benefits of alternative sequences of financing transactions. This framework, which the authors call strategic financial management, aims to provide if not a unifying, then a more integrated, explanation—one that draws on each of the three main theories to provide a more convincing account of the financing and leverage decisions of SEO issuers.     

两权分离度、信息不对称与债务融资选择 — 基于中国民营上市公司的样本分析

本文主要探讨了我国民营上市公司终极控制人的两权分离程度与银行借款和公开 发债选择之间的关系,以2011-2015年我国民营上市公司的面板数据为样本,利用多元回归分 析方法进行研究。结果表明两权分离程度越大,公司进行债务融资时越倾向于银行借款;当信 息不对称程度越低、信息透明程度越高时,公司倾向于选择公开发债,两权分离程度较大导致 的代理问题也会得到弱化。结论符合有效市场理论。     

我国系统性金融风险测度研究

本文以金融压力指数作为系统性金融风险测度指标,基于金融部门、宏观经济、 房地产市场、外部经济等方面构建系统性金融风险测度指标体系,集成分析金融体系整体风 险状况。测度结果显示,2014年至今,我国金融压力指数呈上升趋势,系统性金融风险压力增 大,但整体可控,需要把防控金融风险放到更加重要的位置,切实防范系统性金融风险。     

Formulaic Transparency: The Hidden Enabler of Exceptional U.S. Securitization

Why does the securitization of residential mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, and other such consumer debt in the U.S. exceed the securitization of such debt in Europe by several trillion dollars? The author points out that lemon problems do not stop the sale of used cars but they do prevent the operation of a market in which buyers place sight‐unseen bids for used cars offered by unknown sellers. Buyers prefer to know who the seller is and test‐drive vehicles. Similarly until the 1980s, creditors were willing to forgo the information they could secure in private transactions to get tradability mainly in the case of bonds issued by governments or a few blue‐chip companies. U.S. government policy encouraged the securitization of trillions of dollars of loans made to millions of borrowers. U.S. rules—rather than new financial or information technologies—have strongly encouraged originators of mortgages and other consumer loans to rely on credit scores (commonly referred to as FICO scores) produced by credit bureaus. And reliance on scores that loan originators use but don’t produce helps overcome the information asymmetry problems that would otherwise constrain securitization. The argument turns the usual concern about securitization on its head: transferring risks to investors is normally expected to discourage careful screening of borrowers, but the author’s analysis suggests that formulaic, FICO‐based screening actually enables risk transfer by reducing information asymmetry problems. Moreover, while limiting screening reduces the upfront costs of lending, it also increases loans made to uncreditworthy borrowers. And because increasing loans made to bad borrowers raises the rates good borrowers have to pay (to compensate investors for higher defaults), U.S. rules that sacrifice information for more “complete” markets may be a bad bargain.     

Using Corporate Inflation Protected Securities to Hedge Interest Rate Risk

In the first half of 2008, rising inflation became a concern, but by the fall the focus was on deflation. Such shifts in the outlook for inflation represent a significant risk for some companies, particularly those whose revenues and profits are negatively affected by increases in inflation and rates. For such companies, the use of long‐term fixed‐rate debt will provide at least a partial hedge against increased rates. Less widely appreciated is that even companies whose profits move up and down with inflation face considerable risk from fluctuations in interest rates. Conventional wisdom holds that floating‐rate debt hedges this risk. But this article argues that floating‐rate debt still leaves a company exposed to increases in real interest rates. Inflation‐sensitive companies such as utilities can use corporate inflation‐protected securities (CIPS) to hedge their real interest rate risk as well as inflation risk. In addition to its hedging benefits, CIPS also have the potential to reduce borrowing costs by satisfying growing investor demand for high‐quality securities that provide inflation protection (including demand sources like the recent restoration of French savings accounts to inflation).     

政治关联、融资渠道与民营企业非效率投资研究

从自由现金流和银行贷款两方面考量2007~2010年沪深A股民营上市企业政治关联对企业非效率投资的影响。结果表明,存在政治关联民营企业容易利用自由现金流和银行长期贷款进行过度投资;存在地方政治关联的民营企业,其自由现金流的过度投资更严重,中央政治关联企业则存在更多利用长期贷款进行过度投资的行为。同时,投资不足的民营企业政治关联降低了企业投资对于自由现金流和银行短期贷款的依赖;中央政治关联的民营企业投资对于银行长期贷款的敏感度更高,地方政治关联企业未发现类似的显著影响。     

国内上市公司债务融资效率的实证分析

经典公司理论表明,作为硬约束,债务融资能够在一定程度上降低公司内在的代理成本,从而提高公司经营效率。文章利用上海证券交易所A股上市的522家上市公司2003-2008年的财务报表相关数据对此做一个实证研究。时间固定效应模型回归的结果显示,我国上市公司的资产收益率与债务融资率之间呈负相关关系,国内上市公司的债务融资并不能有效控制经营者为最大化自身收益而采取的机会主义行为,代理成本的存在一定程度上降低了公司经营效率。     

Trade credit and company performance during the 2008 financial crisis

We investigate whether the 2008 financial crisis had an impact on companies’ trade credit, and whether changes in trade credit mitigated the crisis’s impact on firm profitability. We document that the availability of trade credit decreased, and that this decline is more pronounced, the higher the companies’ pre‐crisis reliance on short‐term debt. We further report evidence that the redistribution hypothesis holds during crisis periods. Finally, we show that the crisis had a negative impact on company performance, but that this impact was lower (greater) for firms that report an increase in trade receivables (payables) in crisis compared to pre‐crisis periods.     

From Search to Match: When Loan Contracts Are Too Long

A model of lending is presented where loans are established in matches between banks (lenders) and entrepreneurs (borrowers) who meet in a search process. Projects turn out randomly a quick payoff or a long‐term payoff that requires a rollover of the loan. The model generates, under proper parameter conditions, two steady states without or with rollover, and rollover is socially inefficient. Under imperfect information, the standard debt contract is privately efficient. However, it extends the domains of equilibria with socially inefficient rollover. The global dynamics displays a continuum of equilibrium paths that each exhibits sudden discontinuities—crises—in which the mass of outstanding loans is reduced by a quantum amount of terminations. Crises have a cleansing effect.     

Decomposing the accrual premium: The evidence from two markets

We decompose the accrual premium and study its components in the debt and equity markets. We show that the importance of each accrual component depends on the sample and the type of market considered. The short‐term accruals component is primarily observed in equity markets, among small and young companies, which is consistent with mispricing arguments. The long‐term accruals premium is consistently positive and significant in different samples and markets. This component reflects growth in capital expenditures, and it is counter‐cyclical and predictable, which is in line with investment‐based explanations. Finally, the financial accruals component does not generate predictability.     

Are Banks Still Special? New Evidence on Their Role in the Corporate Capital‐Raising Process

Bankers appear to play a special role in providing commitment-based financing to corporations. This type of lending is important not only for small firms that lack access to public debt markets but for large and medium-size companies as well. For such companies, commitment-based financing provides access to debt capital that becomes valuable when the firm has an immediate need for funding but interest rates in public debt markets are prohibitively high, or the firm is undervalued by the market. A good example of this was provided by the Asian crisis in the last quarter of 1998, when $10 billion of commercial paper was retired and $20 billion of net new commercial loans were booked. The authors also suggest that the fact that commitment-based financing is used by larger companies when they believe themselves to be undervalued in the market is probably the best explanation of why announcements of these types of loans elicit a positive stock price reaction.     

The Capital Structure of PE‐Funded Companies (and How New Debt Instruments and Investors Are Expanding Their Debt Capacity)

The capital structures and financial policies of companies controlled by private equity firms are notably different from those of public companies. The concentration of ownership and intense monitoring of leveraged buyouts by their largest investors (that is, the partners of the PE firms who sit on their boards), along with the contractual requirement of PE funds to return their capital within seven to ten years, have resulted in capital structures that are far more leveraged than those of their publicly traded counterparts, but also considerably more provisional and “opportunistic.” Whereas the average U.S. public company has long operated with roughly 30% debt and 70% equity, today's typical private‐equity sponsored company is initially capitalized with an “upside‐down” structure of 70% debt and just 30% equity, and then often charged with working down its debt as quickly as possible. Although banks supplied most of the debt for the first wave of LBOs in the 1980s, the remarkable growth of the private equity industry in the past 25 years has been supported by the parallel development of a new leveraged acquisition finance market. This financing innovation has led to a general movement away from a bankcentered funding base to one comprising a relatively new set of institutional investors, including business development corporations and hedge funds. Such investors have shown a strong appetite for new debt instruments and risks that banks have been unwilling or, thanks to increased capital requirements and other regulatory burdens, prohibited from taking on. Notable among these new instruments are second‐lien loans and uni‐tranche debt—instruments that, by shifting the allocation of claims on the debtor's cash flow and assets in ways consistent with the preferences of these new investors, have had the effect of increasing the debt capacity of their portfolio companies. And such increases in debt capacity have in turn enabled private equity funds—now sitting on near‐record amounts of capital from their limited partners—to bid higher prices and compete more effectively in today's intensely competitive M&A market, in which high target acquisition purchase prices are being fueled by a strong stock market and increased competition from corporate acquirers.