关于加快安徽地方金融体系建设的思考

随着经济快速发展,金融在经济发展中不可替代的核心作用日趋明显,地方金融业的发展为安徽金融业整体发展增加了生机与活力,地方金融业在地方经济中的地位日益突出,形成经济与金融良性互动有序发展的良好局面。在实际运行中,地方金融机构对地方经济的支持作用要高于其他金融机构,因此建立健康稳定的地方金融体系显得尤为重要。本文分析了地方金融体系在支持地方经济发展中的重要作用,阐述了安徽省地方金融体系建设的主要问题,并提出了建设安徽省地方金融体系的相关措施建议。     

关于加快安徽地方金融体系建设的思考

随着经济快速发展,金融在经济发展中不可替代的核心作用日趋明显,地方金融业的发展为安徽金融业整体发展增加了生机与活力,地方金融业在地方经济中的地位日益突出,形成经济与金融良性互动有序发展的良好局面。在实际运行中,地方金融机构对地方经济的支持作用要高于其他金融机构,因此建立健康稳定的地方金融体系显得尤为重要。本文分析了地方金融体系在支持地方经济发展中的重要作用,阐述了安徽省地方金融体系建设的主要问题,并提出了建设安徽省地方金融体系的相关措施建议。     

储蓄网点减少带来的不利因素

金融是为经济发展服务的，经济发展离不开金融的支持，金融业的健康发展，包括健全的服务功能，网点的科学全理布局。金融对经济、生活的支持程度，往往是衡量经济发展的重要标志。然而，从近几年地方金融机构的发展情况来看，无论是从服务功能还是从网点布局上看都与经济发展不相适应。     

区域金融格局与地区经济适应性分析——以乌兰察布市为例

近几年,乌兰察布市的金融布局、组织架构有了一定的进步和优化,但传统金融在县域贷款市场萎缩、农村信用联社一家独大、新设法人机构发展缓慢,使金融服务与地方经济发展中的多样性金融需求不相适应。本文拟从金融机构布局、规模结构、人力资源、业务发展等情况综合分析对比,寻求改善金融格局、支持地方经济发展的合理途径。     

陕西地方存款类法人金融机构重组整合研究

目前，中小型地方存款类法人金融机构的发展壮大已经成为关系到区域金融资源配置优化度和金融对地方经济发展支持力度的重要因素。本文在结合现行政策、借鉴其他省份整合地方金融资源化解金融机构风险的基础上，综合考虑陕西省六家地方法人类金融机构的资产规模、质量、盈利能力和历史包袱等因素。提出了陕西省金融资源的几种整合模式，以供参考。     

经济增长目标会影响地方金融发展吗——基于政府干预的视角

为了实现既定的经济增长目标,地方政府会积极干预金融资源配置。文章将经济增长目标作为“有为政府”干预金融市场的代理变量,通过研究我国2003—2019年290个地级市的经济增长目标数据,得出以下结论：经济增长目标降低了金融发展深度,与金融机构贷款规模呈倒U型关系。异质性分析表明,地方政府财政压力会增强经济增长目标对金融发展的负面影响,而市场化水平的提高和经济发展转型则能降低经济增长目标对金融发展的负面影响。进一步研究发现,经济增长目标通过降低金融资源配置效率和挤出流向工业及商业领域的贷款影响地方金融发展。本研究拓展了有关金融发展中“有为政府”与“有效市场”关系的认识,对深化金融供给侧结构性改革、助推经济高质量发展具有一定参考价值。     

打造良好环境 构建和谐金融

金融环境是经济环境的组成部分，经济环境是社会环境的组成部分。构建和谐社会已成为今后一段时期社会发展的主题，进一步改善金融生态环境，是银行业更好地服务地方经济发展的一项重要工作。但由于长期以来形成的信用缺失、恶意逃废银行债务、金融执法不到位等方面的诸多问题，使金融机构的经营举步维艰，甚至亏损，加之自身经营管理不善，导致一些地方金融机构萎缩，投放贷款减少，对经济的支持力度明显弱化，同时也加大了金融风险。     

呼伦贝尔市民间借贷情况调查

近年来,受金融机构支持地方经济发展功能弱化、民间闲置资金增多等因素影响,呼伦贝尔市农村、林区、牧区民间借贷活动不断活跃,借贷范同遍布城乡,融资规模逐年扩大,对经济金融的影响日趋加深。     

积极调整信贷结构支持循环经济发展

经济决定金融，金融反作用于经济。一个地方发展什么类型的产业经济，对当地金融机构建立何种类型的信贷发展战略，有着至关重要的作用。柴达木循环经济区被列入国家首批13个循环经济试点产业园区，为海西州金融机构制定新的信贷政策和标准、重新划分金融市场份额，带来了新的契机。面对机遇与挑战，处于海西州经济发展核心地位的海西银行业金融机构应当立足先行，充分认识发展循环经济的重要意义，     

浅议省(市)长经济责任审计中应强化地方金融行业审计

地方金融机构的发展,对地方经济运行影响越来越大,如何正确引导其发挥促进地方经济发展的积极作用,防止其不规范行为的发生,是监管部门重要任务.审计署近年来借助省(市)长经济责任审计这一平台,以账户为抓手,以资金流向为线索,开展对一些地方金融机构业务的审计,拓展了评价省(市)长经济责任的内容,查出一些问题,取得较好的效果.     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.