共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 562 毫秒
1.
Foreign Transfers and Real Exchange Rate Adjustments in a Financially Constrained Dependent Economy 总被引:2,自引:2,他引:0
This paper investigates the role of the real exchange rate in determining the effects of foreign transfers. If capital is
perfectly mobile between sectors, a pure transfer has no long-run impact on the real exchange rate. A decline in the traded
sector occurs because the transfer, being denominated in traded output, substitutes for exports in financing imports. While
a pure transfer causes short-run real exchange appreciation, this response is temporary and negligibly small. Transfers allocated
to productivity enhancement do generate permanent real exchange rate adjustments in response to the sectoral reallocation
of productive factors. The analysis, which employs extensive numerical simulations, emphasizes the tradeoffs between real
exchange adjustments, long-run capital accumulation, and economic welfare, associated with alternative forms of transfers.
相似文献
Stephen J. TurnovskyEmail: |
2.
Bernd Schnatz 《International Economics and Economic Policy》2007,4(3):281-297
The paper tests for nonlinearities in the adjustment of the euro exchange rate towards purchasing power parity (PPP). It presents
new survey based evidence consistent with non-linear patterns in euro exchange rate dynamics. Moreover, based on an exponential
smooth transition autoregressive (ESTAR-) model, it finds strong evidence that the speed of mean reversion in euro exchange
rates increases non-linearly with the magnitude of the PPP deviation. Accordingly, while the euro real exchange rate can be
well approximated by a random walk if PPP deviations are small, in periods of significant deviations, gravitational forces
are set to take root and bring the exchange rate back towards its long-term trend. Deviations from the PPP equilibrium for
the euro-dollar rate need to be stronger in order to reach the same adjustment intensity as for other rates.
相似文献
Bernd SchnatzEmail: |
3.
In this paper, we re-examine the “PPP Puzzle” using sectoral disaggregated data. Specifically, we first analyse the mean reversion
speeds of real exchange rates for a number of different sectors in 11 industrial economies and then focus on relating these
rates to variables identified in the literature as key determinants of CPI-based real exchange rates, namely: the trade balance, productivity and the mark up. In particular, we seek to understand to what extent the relationships existing at the aggregate level are borne out at the
disaggregate level. We believe that this analysis can help shed light on the PPP puzzle.
相似文献
Ronald MacDonaldEmail: |
4.
We present an analysis of the determinants of de jure and de facto exchange rate regimes based on a panel probit model with
simultaneous equations. The model is estimated using simulation-based maximum likelihood methods. The empirical results suggest
a triangular structure of the model such that the choice of de facto regimes depends on the choice of de jure regimes but
not vice versa. This gives rise to a novel interpretation of regime discrepancies.
相似文献
Jizhong ZhouEmail: |
5.
Shocks to Terms of Trade and Risk-premium in an Intertemporal Model: The Dutch Disease and a Dutch Party 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
In this paper, we analyze the impact of terms of trade and risk-premium shocks on a small open economy in an intertemporal
Dutch disease model, with international capital mobility. Given that an improvement in the terms of trade is associated with
a decrease in the risk-premium on lending to this economy, we find that this can lead to a Dutch party (rather than Dutch
disease) in which real exchange rate appreciation is associated with an expansion of the capital-intensive traded sector,
hence, pro-industrialization. The economy also accumulates more debt in the long-run in response to the lower borrowing costs.
相似文献
David Vines (Corresponding author)Email: |
6.
This paper empirically investigates the demand for international reserves (and foreign exchange reserves) during fixed and
floating exchange rates periods in three developing countries: Kenya, Mexico and Philippines. Based on theoretical models,
three factors are identified as important for the demand of international reserves and foreign reserves: average propensity
to import, volume of imports and variability of reserves. The paper employs the cointegration methodology and error correction
method to investigate the relationships. Cointegration tests results indicate a reliable long-run stationary relationship
between the international reserves (and foreign exchange reserves) and the stated explanatory variables across countries and
sub-periods of fixed and clean float. The error correction results indicate causality from the explanatory variables to the
reserves during both the short and long run. This is true during both the fixed and the floating periods.
相似文献
Mohammad Hasan (Corresponding author)Email: |
7.
The purpose in this note is first to review briefly the empirical results on the relationship between real interest rates
and real exchange rates; this empirical literature provides little support for the hypothesis of Roll that expected real interest
rates are equal in general. Our second aim is to discuss the theoretical conditions that have to be met for his hypothesis
to hold.
相似文献
David PeelEmail: |
8.
Michael Bleaney 《Open Economies Review》2008,19(2):135-146
The puzzle that real exchange rates are less volatile in open economies is an important challenge to exchange rate theory.
Adjustment of domestic prices to nominal exchange rate movements can account for only a small proportion of this effect. Real
and nominal shocks display no obvious correlation with openness. It is shown here that real effective exchange rates are more
strongly mean-reverting in more open economies, even after controlling for exchange rate regime effects. This is predicted
by the theory of current account sustainability, because of its emphasis on ratios to GDP rather than to trade flows.
相似文献
Michael BleaneyEmail: |
9.
This paper provides some of the first empirical evidence on labour market adjustments to exchange rate movements in Canadian
manufacturing industries. Controlling for endogeneity using generalized method of moments estimation, it is found that during
the 1981–1997 period, exchange movements have a substantial impact on labour input and that this impact has grown over time
as the manufacturing industries have become more exposed to trade. In contrast, the exchange rate effect on real wages is
estimated to be virtually zero for all manufacturing industries.
相似文献
Terence YuenEmail: |
10.
Hector C. Butts 《The Review of Black Political Economy》2009,36(2):93-111
In this paper the direction of the causality relationship between economic growth and short-term external debt was investigated
for 27 Latin American and Caribbean countries over the period 1970–2003. The empirical results suggest the existence of bidirectional
causality relationships between the two variables for several countries, which means that the performance of both variables
is interrelated. The main finding is that in the short- and long- runs Granger causality from economic growth to short-term
external debt is present in 13 Latin American and Caribbean countries. With the evidence suggesting, in the majority of estimated
cases, economic growth Granger caused short-term external debt, short-term policy decisions related to capacity absorption
enhancement should be encouraged in Latin America and the Caribbean. Further work in this regard is encouraged in the form
of panel studies or specific individual case studies inclusive of foreign trade linkage parameters to capture the potential
effects of omitted variables.
相似文献
Hector C. ButtsEmail: |
11.
Exchange Rate Economics 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
John Williamson 《Open Economies Review》2009,20(1):123-146
The paper summarizes the current theory of how a floating exchange rate is determined, dividing the subject into what determines
the steady state and what determines the transition to steady state. The inadequacies of this model are examined, and an alternative
“behavioral” model, which recognizes that the foreign exchange market is populated by both fundamentalists and chartists is
presented. It is argued that the main importance of understanding the foreign exchange market for development strategy is
to permit a correct appraisal of the dangers of Dutch disease. Empirically it seems that from the standpoint of promoting
development it is preferable to have a mildly undervalued rate. The paper concludes by examining implications for exchange
rate regimes.
相似文献
John WilliamsonEmail: |
12.
This paper studies to what extent the diversity of exchange rate regimes within Mercosur exerts an influence on the feasibility
of a monetary union in this area. A semi-structural vector autoregression model is built for each country, including a set
of international and domestic variables. Based on impulse response functions and forecast error decomposition, we conclude
that differences in exchange rate regimes explain significantly the divergences of economic dynamics triggered by foreign
or domestic shocks. Second, we decompose the structural innovations generated by each country model into unobservable common
and idiosyncratic components, using a state-space model. This last exercise, intended to assess the degree of policy coordination
between the Mercado Común del Sur members, did not disclose any common component for the structural innovations generated
by the three national models.
相似文献
Alain Sand-Zantman (Corresponding author)Email: |
13.
Francisco Ledesma-Rodríguez Jorge Pérez-Rodríguez Simón Sosvilla-Rivero 《International Economics and Economic Policy》2009,6(2):179-206
This paper attempts to identify implicit exchange rate regimes for currencies of the Central and Eastern European Countries
vis-à-vis the euro. To that end, we apply a sequential procedure that considers the dynamics of exchange rates to data covering the
period from 1977:01 to 2006:02. Our results would suggest that implicit bands have existed in many subperiods for almost all
currencies under study. Once we detect de facto discrepancies between de facto and de iure exchange rate regimes, we propose a model in order to explain these decisions. Our results suggest a positive association
between the previous inflation rate and the probability of a peg with the euro, and a negative association with past unemployment
rate.
相似文献
Simón Sosvilla-RiveroEmail: |
14.
In a fixed exchange rate regime, an exchange rate change can be a swift way to change the real exchange rate in the short
run. Fiscal policy also affects relative prices, and fiscal policy response to various types of shocks can therefore be crucial
for the credibility of an exchange rate peg. We develop a model within which fiscal policy plays a crucial role for ensuring
the viability and thus credibility of an exchange rate peg. We use the insights of this model to take a closer look at Denmark,
which has successfully pursued a fixed exchange rate policy since 1982.
相似文献
Torben M. AndersenEmail: |
15.
This paper examines the impact of trade policy on specialization patterns in ten Latin American countries over the period
1985–1998. These countries are natural case studies because in the last decades they implemented comprehensive trade liberalization
programs, both generally and preferentially, starting from relatively high tariff protection levels. Our econometric results
suggest that reducing own most favored nation tariffs is associated with increasing manufacturing production specialization.
Furthermore, we find that preferential trade liberalization and differences in the degree of unilateral openness have resulted
in increased dissimilarities in manufacturing production structures across countries. These results are robust across specialization
measures and estimation methods.
相似文献
Christian Volpe MartincusEmail: |
16.
The recent rash of international currency crises has generated considerable interest in the role that exchange rate regimes
have played in contributing to these crises. Many economists have argued that efforts to operate adjustably pegged exchange
rate regimes have been a major contributor to “the unstable middle” hypothesis and some have argued that this unstable middle
is so broad that only the two corners of hard fixes or floating rates will be stable in a world of high capital mobility—the
two corners or bipolar hypothesis. Two recent empirical studies by researchers at the International Monetary Fund reach opposing
conclusions on these issues. We examine the issue further and show that conclusions can be quite sensitive to how exchange
rate regimes are grouped into categories and the measures of currency crises that are used. In general we find that the dead
center of the adjustable peg is by far the most crisis prone broad type of exchange rate regimes, but that countries need
not go all the way to freely floating rates or hard fixes to substantially reduce the risks of currency crises.
相似文献
Thomas D. WillettEmail: |
17.
This paper assesses China’s “natural” place in the world economy with a new set of trade integration indicators, which are
used as a benchmark in order to examine whether China’s share in international trade is consistent with fundamentals such
as economic size, location and other relevant factors. They constitute a better measure of trade integration that incorporates
many more factors than traditional openness ratios. The model tracks international trade well and confirms that China is already
well integrated in world markets, particularly with North America, several Latin American and East Asian emerging markets
and most euro area countries.
相似文献
Matthieu BussièreEmail: |
18.
Pei-Cheng Liao 《Open Economies Review》2008,19(1):55-70
This paper investigates the effects of R&D spillovers on the R&D choices of foreign exporters when the importing country adopts
either uniform or discriminatory alternative tariff regimes. We show that the importing country should optimally choose a
uniform tariff regime. A uniform tariff regime is also advantageous for foreign exporters if the R&D spillovers are sufficiently
large. A comparison of free trade with the two tariff regimes reveals that there are some situations in which both the importing
country and foreign exporters are better off under free trade, which supports trade liberalization.
相似文献
Pei-Cheng LiaoEmail: |
19.
Balazs Egert 《Open Economies Review》2008,19(2):147-165
In this paper we explore the evidence that would establish that Dutch disease is at work in, or poses a threat to, the Kazakh
economy. Assessing the mechanism by which fluctuations in the price of oil can damage non-oil manufacturing—and thus long-term
growth prospects in an economy that relies heavily on oil production—we find that non-oil manufacturing has so far been spared
the perverse effects of oil price increases from 1996 to 2005. The real exchange rate in the open sector has appreciated over
the last couple of years, largely due to the appreciation of the nominal exchange rate. We analyze to what extent this appreciation
is linked to movements in oil prices and oil revenues. Econometric evidence from the monetary model of the exchange rate and
a variety of real exchange rate models show that the rise in the price of oil and in oil revenues might be linked to an appreciation
of the U.S. dollar exchange rate of the oil and non-oil sectors. But appreciation is mainly limited to the real effective
exchange rate for oil sector and is statistically insignificant for non-oil manufacturing.
相似文献
Balazs EgertEmail: Email: |
20.
An updated version of Krugman’s 1993 MMF framework is used to consider the implications of buoyant domestic demand for the
real exchange rate and debt dynamics. The updating includes a Taylor rule for monetary policy and explicit treatment of external
assets and liabilities. In response to an exogenous rise in the aggregate demand, short-run appreciation of the real exchange
rate is followed by a prolonged decline as external debt accumulates and net wealth deteriorates. Whether in equilibrium the
real exchange rate is stronger or weaker depends crucially on a comparison of real interest rates and the growth rate. If
the domestic growth rate is higher than global real interest rates, the currency may strengthen in the long run despite the
deterioration of net external assets. To see whether the strength of sterling is sustainable, the analysis is briefly calibrated
to UK data over the last decade. Blanchard et al. (The US current account and the dollar. CEPR DP no 4888, 2005) suggest that international liabilities to be treated as imperfect substitutes: so we check to see how this would affect
our results.
相似文献
Eleni IliopulosEmail: |