Does the market perceive a difference in rating agencies?

A frequent and recent topic in the financial press concerns the two major rating agencies, Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s. The reported perception is that Moody’s is less credible. In this study, we determine whether the market shares this perception and whether this perception carries an economic cost. Since there are many features attached to a bond issue that affect its yield, differences in bond rating cannot be tested in isolation. This paper estimates the impact of differences in ratings as well as several other key bond features (call and sinking fund features, and syndication) of public issues of corporate bonds using regression analysis over the period 1986 through 1996. All features tested except the sinking fund option for doubling and tripling the amount of funds retired are found to be significant including the variable measuring the market’s perception of the informational content of ratings from the two rating agencies. Thus, we conclude that the market finds value in the ratings from each agency, but that the value is not symmetrical between the two agencies. There is not enough evidence that the market values one agency over the other.     

The effect of corporate governance on credit ratings: Evidence from China's bond market

This paper examines the association between firms’ corporate governance and credit ratings (both bond ratings and issuer ratings) in China. In addition to considering the financial attributes of bond issuers, we ask to what extent do credit rating agencies consider the corporate governance attributes of issuers? In concept, bondholders are concerned with the financial effects of how corporate governance resolves the agency conflicts between bondholders and managers, majority and minority shareholders, and shareholders and bondholders. We find that corporate governance affects bond issuer credit ratings in China. After controlling for firms’ financial attributes, we find that issuer ratings are positively related to dual‐listing, whether the firm is a state‐owned enterprise, the ownership of the second to the tenth largest shareholder; and negatively related to the relative scale of audit fees. We attribute the positive association between dual‐listing and credit rating to higher quality and transparency of information reported by the dual‐listed firm. The value to bondholders of the implicit government guarantee of debt payments more than offsets the negative association between firm value and being an SOE. Bond rating agencies expect that the change in agency costs with a reduction in the ownership of the largest shareholder benefits bondholders. To credit rating agencies, the scale of audit fees (relative to total assets of the accounting firm) signals interest binding between the client firm and the accounting firm that threatens the independence of auditing and the quality of financial reporting. We also find that bond‐specific attributes: collateral and issue size, are positively related to bond credit ratings.     

Understanding the determinants of sovereign debt ratings: Evidence for the two leading agencies

An analysis of the possible determinants of sovereign credit ratings assigned by the two leading credit rating agencies, Moody's and Standard and Poor's, is conducted in this paper by using linear, logistic, and exponential transformations of the rating scales. Of the large number of variables that can be used, the set of explanatory variables selected in this study is significant in explaining the credit ratings. Namely, six variables appear to be the most relevant to determining a country's credit rating: GDP per capita, external debt, level of economic development, default history, real growth rate, and inflation rate.     

An Empirical Assessment of Country Risk Ratings and Associated Models

Abstract.  Country risk has become a topic of major concern for the international financial community over the last two decades. The importance of country ratings is underscored by the existence of several major country risk rating agencies, namely the Economist Intelligence Unit, Euromoney, Institutional Investor, International Country Risk Guide, Moody's, Political Risk Services, and Standard and Poor's. These risk rating agencies employ different methods to determine country risk ratings, combining a range of qualitative and quantitative information regarding alternative measures of economic, financial and political risk into associated composite risk ratings. However, the accuracy of any risk rating agency with regard to any or all of these measures is open to question. For this reason, it is necessary to review the literature relating to empirical country risk models according to established statistical and econometric criteria used in estimation, evaluation and forecasting. Such an evaluation permits a critical assessment of the relevance and practicality of the country risk literature. The paper also provides an international comparison of risk ratings for twelve countries from six geographic regions. These ratings are compiled by the International Country Risk Guide, which is the only rating agency to provide detailed and consistent monthly data over an extended period for a large number of countries. The time series data permit a comparative assessment of the international country risk ratings, and highlight the importance of economic, financial and political risk ratings as components of a composite risk rating.     

Fiscal Rules and Financial Systems: Complements or Substitutes?

We study the effect of fiscal rules on a country's credit rating and their interaction with financial development. We build a rich set of panel data, which includes a novel index for the strength of fiscal rules. We find a positive and significant effect of fiscal rules on sovereign ratings. We also find that this effect is attenuated in economies with a more developed domestic financial system. Therefore, financial markets act as a substitute for fiscal rules in lowering the default risk assessed by credit rating agencies. This substitution effect between fiscal rules and financial development is mostly triggered through the monitoring and enforcement dimension of fiscal rules.     

Medium-sized charities and their advertising agencies: An exploratory investigation

Respondents in 103 medium-sized charities completed a mail questionnaire designed to explore the nature of the relationships between these charities and their advertising agencies. It emerged that some, but not all, of the factors known to influence interactions between agencies and their commercial clients were equally relevant within the charity sector. Variables crucial to charity clients' levels of satisfaction with their advertising agencies included agency provision of functional assistance with media planning and the creative design of advertisements, trust and an agency's willingness to act as a member of its client's team, and the ability to generate new ideas. Additionally, an agency's experience of work within the charity sector and its empathy with charitable aims, ideals and philosophies were key determinants of satisfaction ratings. Assistance with market research and public relations and an agency's ability to offer extensive ancillary services did not appear to exert significant influence.     

债券评级市场向上提升评级行为的理性动力

中国的债券市场虽然在近几年有一定的发展,但整体上离一个成熟的市场还有很大距离,其中,信用评级更是没有展示出其重要的作用。文章试图通过几个简单的模型说明评级机构向上提升评级行为的理性动力,并且即使在非完全垄断时这样的动力也不会消失。     

The valuation effects of bank loan ratings in the presence of multiple monitors

Studies have shown that when two information providers or outside auditors exist, the value provided by the second one will be decreased by the actions of the first. Credit rating agencies have been rating bank loans since 1996. Capitalizing on the highly similar functions performed by banks and these agencies, the informational value of bank loan ratings is examined. Further, evidence is provided on whether rating agencies duplicate the certifying and monitoring roles played by banks. The significant market reaction to negative bank loan rating announcements suggests these rating actions convey information beyond that provided via bank loan approvals and renewals. The authors wish to thank Richard Robinson (the Editor), an anonymous referee, Mary A. Lawrence, Abdullah Mamun, Brian Murphy, Lawrence Rose, Mark Vaughn, Massey University-Albany seminar, 2004 Financial Management Association and 2005 Academy of Financial Services participants for their helpful comments.     

Financial information,green certification,government subsidies and green bond credit spreads–evidence from China

In the context of green bonds playing an increasingly vital role in the green financial market, this study selects 61 green bonds issued in China from 2016 to 2021 as samples to examine the factors influencing green bond credit, including financial information and ratings of issuers, green certification, and government subsidies. First and foremost, based on AHP and entropy method, the financial composite index is constructed to evaluate the issuers’ finance. Additionally, the differences in the cost of green bonds issued by state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and semi-enterprises are explored by adding the property rights variable. Empirical results indicate that the issuer’s rating could significantly affect the credit spread. In addition, the green bond credit spreads of SOEs are more competitive than those of semi-enterprises. When the issuer is a SOE, green bond credit spread has a remarkable negative correlation with finance information. Furthermore, green certification and government grants are not the main factors. Finally, the green bond market, crucial to controlling the green financial system, is presented with specific recommendations for its growth in this study.

     

Cross-sectional variation in the stock market reaction to bond rating changes

Previous research has found that the stock market reacts negatively to bond rating downgrades and that downgrades tend to follow periods of negative returns, indicating that at least some downgrades are partially predictable. Hypothesizing that the reaction to a downgrade depends on both the implications for cash flows and the degree of surprise, we explore how the reaction to downgrade announcements varies across bond issues. We find that the equity market reacts much more negatively to bond rating downgrades to and within the speculative bond category than to downgrades within the investment grade category. Within the speculative category, the reaction is stronger, the lower the old and new ratings are. The reaction to multiple-level downgrades is not very different from that to single-level downgrades. The market reaction is also stronger if the firm has experienced negative pre-downgrade abnormal returns. Our evidence indicates that downgrades are viewed by the market as providing information on likely future earnings before interest charges, not just likely future interest charges. It is also consistent with Billett's (1996) hypothesis that low rated debt makes a firm less attractive as a takeover target.     

Are credit rating agencies regionally biased?

We investigate claims of regional bias in the sovereign credit ratings given by the rating agencies Fitch, Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s by considering a wide range of macroeconomic, financial, institutional, regional and geopolitical indicators for 99 countries categorized into eight regions plus the United States. Empirical results based on seemingly unrelated regressions indicate a strong home country bias towards the United States, while there seem to be no special biases against individual groups of countries. We also demonstrate how modeling errors such as omitted variables can increase dispersion in the estimated regional effects, causing agencies to appear biased.     

Moody’s ratings and regionalization: State government general obligation bonds

For the period 1930, 1931, 1937–1987, the Scheffe’s test provides evidence of regionalization in Moody’s ratings of state government general obligation bonds. Sub-period analysis indicates a reduction in the extent of regionalization over time. Findings suggest this may be due to a change in the criteria used in rating such bonds. However, further study is necessary on this topic. The results also suggest that further study is necessary on the question of why two political-economic variables show no regionalization and the meaning of this finding to bond ratings.     

Charity Ratings

How do charitable donors respond to the third‐party ratings that signal the quality of charities? I investigate this question using a novel data set from Charity Navigator, which provides quality ratings for 5,400 charities. Because Charity Navigator prominently displays a charity's star rating which is assigned based on its overall rating, one can identify the causal impact of a one star increase in ratings on charitable contributions with a regression discontinuity framework that exploits the threshold values of the overall ratings. I find that in general, the third‐party ratings have a minor and often insignificant impact on charitable contributions received by charities. However, for relatively small charities, a higher rating leads to an increase in charitable contributions received. In particular, for these charities, I find that a one star increase in ratings is associated with a 19.5% increase in the amount of charitable contributions received. This result is robust under alternative model specifications and highlights the role of the third‐party ratings in not‐for‐profit markets.     

The impact of public pension board of trustee composition on state bond ratings

The declining financial health of public pension systems is increasingly becoming a budgetary concern for many state and local governments. While the academic literature has identified several factors behind the growth in unfunded state and local public pension liabilities, there is mixed evidence on how the composition of a pension system’s board of trustees affects a pension’s financial health. This article contributes to this literature by measuring how public pension board composition affects fund financial health as measured by state bond ratings. With a panel dataset of state pensions between 2001 and 2014 our results indicate that elected board members are consistently associated with lower bond ratings (and thus higher borrowing costs) while appointed and ex-officio board members are associated with higher bond ratings. These results are robust to a number of specifications.     

The profile of the ‘Good Judge’ in HRM: A systematic review and agenda for future research

In light of the pivotal importance of judgments and ratings in human resource management (HRM) settings, a better understanding of the individual differences associated with being a good judge is sorely needed. This review provides an overview of individual difference characteristics that have been associated with the accurate judges in HRM. We review empirical findings over >80 years to identify what we know and do not know about the individual difference correlates of being an accurate judge. Overall, findings suggest that judges' cognitive factors show stronger and more consistent relationships with rating accuracy than personality-related factors. Specific intelligences in the social cognition domain, such as dispositional reasoning (complex understanding of traits, behaviors and a situation's potential to manifest traits into behaviors) show particular promise to help understanding what makes an accurate judge. Importantly, our review also highlights the scarcity of research on HRM context (selection vs. performance appraisal settings) and judges' motivation to distort ratings. To guide future research, we present a model that links assessor constructs to key processes required for accurate judgment and ratings in HRM contexts. The discussion suggests twenty questions for future work in this field.     

Rating and capital structure: How do the signs affect the speed of adjustment?

Standard and Poor's ratings can be modified by the addition of a plus (+) or minus (?) sign to show the relative standing within each major rating category. In this paper, we analyze the influence of these signs on the speed of leverage adjustment for listed European companies in the 2004–2014 period. Our results indicate that (a) when a qualification is accompanied by a minus sign, it adjusts more slowly than qualifications either with a plus sign or without a sign; (b) when a rating has a plus sign, the adjustment is slower than when it has no sign; and (c) when a qualification is BBB‐, the speed of its leverage adjustment is close to zero. These results suggest that companies with signs in their ratings decrease their speed of adjustment to the target leverage ratio. In addition, such companies are especially concerned about a credit rating downgrade when it implies a possible loss of the degree of investment (BBB‐).     

Who speaks louder,financial instruments or credit rating agencies? Analyzing the effects of different sovereign risk measures on interest rates in Brazil

Analyzing sovereign risk measures for Brazil, we observe that credit rating agencies are more cautious and conservative than the market to report risk rating improvements, and more rigorous in assigning better risk ratings. In turn, evidence suggest interest rates reflect sovereign risk conditions. However, to date, no study has assessed which measure of sovereign risk has the greatest impact on the yield curve. Using data from March 2004 to August 2019, we investigate whether interest rates respond differently to different sovereign risk measures in Brazil. As a novelty, the results indicate that credit rating agencies “speak louder” in affecting interest rates, i.e., they proved to have greater capacity to affect the yield curve. Therefore, the importance of these agencies is not limited only for financial markets, but also for policymakers, as the slope of the yield curve acts as a leading indicator of the business cycle.     

The quality of credit ratings: A two-sided market perspective

This paper presents a formal model of a credit rating agency. I study the consequences of the transition from an “investor-pays” model to an “issuer-pays” model on the quality standard of credit ratings chosen by the agency. I find that such a transition is likely to generate a degradation of the quality standard, which may fall below the socially efficient level. Finally, I discuss empirical implications and several reform proposals to the business model of credit rating agencies.     

The predictive power of fund ratings with a novel approach using uncertainty measures to analyzing risk

Using two approaches to panel data, Granger causality analysis with semi-asymptotic tests, and a structural approach based on entropies measured on sequences of multiperiod ratings and returns, we specify the relationship between a fund’s performance and both Morningstar and Europerformance ratings. We conclude on the Europerformance agency’s forecasting ability for the Luxembourg funds, and the Morningstar agency for the French funds. Indeed, we find two groups of funds depending on their domiciliation and appropriated rating. The results of this paper have implications for the management of fund portfolios, and the structural approach, more robust to our data, must be a first process for forecast models on the basis of similar funds, minor uncertainty or risk measure, and appropriated rating.